441 # Overview of Silicon Price Trends

This week, the price of # 441 metallic silicon remained strong and upward. As of January 12th, the average price of metallic silicon in the domestic market was 15560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38% compared to the previous week. In recent times, silicon metal production has decreased and silicon factories have started to resume production. At the same time, downstream short-term rigid demand procurement has been basically completed, and the market spot sentiment has cooled down, so spot prices have weakened and declined.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 12th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15500~15600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 15500~15600 yuan/ton, with an average of 15550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 15200-15400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15300 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 15200~15300 yuan/ton, with an average of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 16100~16200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16150 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of January 12th, the number of furnaces opened this week was 301, an increase of 3 compared to last week. Among them, Yunnan and Fujian each increased by 2 units, Guizhou and Sichuan each decreased by 1 unit, Yunnan and Hunan each decreased by 2 units, and Chongqing increased by 1 unit. Recently, some silicon factories on the supply side have started resuming production, and some silicon factories in Chongqing and Yunnan have started production to deliver orders. However, according to the data as of the 11th, the number of weekly furnaces has increased.

In terms of inventory:

As of January 12th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached a total of 354000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse was 116000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared to the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse was 238000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), an increase of 2000 tons compared to the previous week.

In terms of demand:

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market remained stable, and the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a current model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 52000 to 58000 yuan/ton. The preliminary maintenance equipment has now resumed operation, and with the release of new production capacity, the domestic supply has significantly increased. Downstream installed capacity demand is decreasing, and the demand for silicon materials in the market has slowed down recently. We need to continue to follow up, but currently the price decline space is gradually narrowing, and it may stabilize in the later stage, but we have not seen any signs of rebound

The prices of organic silicon and aluminum alloy have slightly increased. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price is referenced around 13940 yuan/ton, and the current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20150 yuan/ton. The aluminum alloy market is stable, with aluminum alloy factories making small-scale purchases and placing appropriate inquiries for replenishment, resulting in an overall increase in demand.

Future Market Forecast

In summary, on the supply side, news of some silicon factories resuming production this week has emerged, while the market’s spot sentiment has cooled down and traders have loosened their willingness to raise prices; On the demand side, downstream replenishment is basically coming to an end, so both spot and market prices of silicon have begun to decline. The social inventory has slightly increased, and the overall inventory pressure is relatively high. At present, maintenance enterprises in Xinjiang have not significantly resumed production, and cost support still exists. It is expected that industrial silicon will operate in a weak and volatile manner in the short term next week. We will continue to pay attention to supply side disturbances and downstream replenishment progress after the year.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China has slightly increased this week. On the 15th, the market reported around 13340 yuan/ton, and on the 8th, it reported around 13220 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.91%. The prices of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid have declined, the cost of polyacrylamide has fallen, and enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally. The market supply is abundant, downstream demand is weak, and commodity circulation is slow. The mainstream market trend of polyacrylamide is mainly consolidating.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market has been declining this week, with the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market at 9387 yuan/ton as of January 15th. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile from tanks in the market is between 9200 to 9600 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials has slightly increased, and the cost supports acrylonitrile; The operating rate of major downstream ABS polymerization enterprises has been lowered to below 68%, and the production of enterprises has remained stable; The supply of acrylonitrile units is loose, and the impact of supply and demand is bearish, resulting in a downward trend in the market.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the overall acrylic acid market has slightly declined this week. As of January 15th, the average quoted price for acrylic acid in the East China region is 6150 yuan/ton. At present, the cost support is still acceptable, and downstream companies need to follow up. The market atmosphere is light.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas price trend continued to weaken this week. At present, there is insufficient market demand and the willingness of downstream restocking is not strong. The bidding price for raw gas has been lowered, weakening cost support. It is expected that domestic liquefied natural gas prices will continue to decline weakly in the short term.

Market forecast: In the near future, the overall price of raw materials will fall, the fuel market will fall, and the cost of polyacrylamide will decline. On the supply side, enterprises in the main production areas have normal production and sufficient market supply; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, with little change in market transactions. It is expected that domestic polyacrylamide sorting will be the main focus in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic yellow phosphorus market is on the rise. The average price of yellow phosphorus on Monday was 22962.67 yuan/ton, and this Friday’s average price was 23862.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.92%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic yellow phosphorus market has been on the rise, and the overall market trading situation is relatively active. The market is driving steadily, with traders and downstream buyers showing good enthusiasm, and yellow phosphorus manufacturers collectively increasing prices. The focus of new transactions has shifted upwards. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 23800-24000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, according to data monitoring from Business Society, the domestic phosphate ore market has remained stable this week, with an average price of 1056 yuan/ton. At present, the trading atmosphere in the domestic phosphate ore market is mild, and the mentality of the industry is good. Some downstream companies prepare goods before the new year and purchase according to the quantity. According to the phosphate ore data analyst of Business Society, the domestic phosphate ore market is mainly stable in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the influence of factors such as demand and downstream shipment situation.

In terms of coke, according to the analysis of the commodity market by Business Society, the atmosphere in the coke market was weak this week. The average price of coke on Monday was 2328.33 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 2226.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.37%. The coke market in Shandong port is operating weakly, with spot market prices slightly decreasing. The quasi first level outbound price at the port is around 2300 yuan/ton, and the first level outbound price is 2400 yuan/ton. The port market is operating weakly, with inventory at the two ports slightly declining. The enthusiasm of traders in the spot market to gather at the port is weak, and market trading is slightly sluggish, with actual transactions being relatively low.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of phosphoric acid has decreased this week. The average price of phosphoric acid on Monday was 6510 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 6360 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 2.3%. The phosphoric acid data analyst from Business Society predicts that the phosphoric acid market is weak, with average downstream demand and weak consolidation in the market.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the upstream phosphate ore market is currently stable, the overall coke market is weak, and cost support is average. The downstream has a good enthusiasm for purchasing yellow phosphorus, and the on-site trading atmosphere is active. It is expected that in the short term, the yellow phosphorus market will tend to strengthen and consolidate, with a single discussion.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, nickel prices have fluctuated and fallen this week. As of January 5th, the spot nickel quotation was 126000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.1% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 45.17%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have fallen by 10% and risen by 2% in the past 12 weeks, with nickel prices still showing a main decline in recent times.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

On a macro level, following the announcement of the December interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve, market focus has shifted to the core US November PCE data released this Friday. The market is waiting for important data to be released in order to obtain new guidance, as the US dollar fluctuates.

In terms of supply, some enterprises have reduced production at a loss. In November, the national refined nickel production was 23000 tons, a decrease of 3.9% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 54.45%. The production of major overseas nickel companies in the first three quarters decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, mostly due to unexpected disturbances, with good profits and weak willingness to actively reduce production.

In terms of demand: Alloy is the main downstream of pure nickel, with better demand for military and ship alloys, and inferior demand for civilian alloys. The demand for electroplating is relatively stable. Stainless steel inventory returned to a neutral level, and steel mills slightly resumed production in December. New energy basically does not require pure nickel. Last week, nickel prices fell significantly, and some downstream restocking during the Spring Festival was advanced.

In summary, nickel prices have continued to weaken, and downstream purchasing and stocking sentiment has increased. Some downstream stocking for the Spring Festival has been advanced, and social inventory has been depleted within the week; Production remains high and inventory continues to accumulate. Overall, the fundamentals continue to be weak with no new bearish sentiment, but there is also a lack of bullish sentiment. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to operate weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market on January 1st was 833 yuan/ton, and on January 7th, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 796 yuan/ton. This week, the price of domestic ammonium sulfate market decreased by 4.40%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has fallen. Foreign orders are relatively low, domestic market demand is poor, downstream delivery capacity is weakened, and market bearish sentiment is strong. As of January 7th, the mainstream market price for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 750-800 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 785-870 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Shengyishe Ammonium Sulfate believe that the recent trend in ammonium sulfate prices is weak. The supply side is relatively abundant, while the demand side takes less goods. The short-term market situation is currently not favorable, and it is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will be weak and mainly consolidating in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21600.00 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the beginning of the month and increased by 17.82% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 27666.67 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of the month and an increase of 12.93% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

After New Year’s Day, the domestic price of trichloromethane remained weak, falling by 2.58% during the week. The price of hydrofluoric acid continued to be weak, falling by 2.36% during the week. The continuous decrease in raw material costs did not suppress the R22 market price. Supported by the low inventory of enterprises with low quotas, the domestic R22 market price continued to remain strong this week.

This week, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices saw a slight decline, with a 2.36% drop within the week. The decrease in raw material costs did not suppress the domestic R134a price. Supported by low inventory of enterprises with quota bottoming out, the domestic R134a price continued to remain strong this week.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, downstream demand is stable, and the attitude of enterprises to support prices remains unchanged. In the short term, the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will continue to remain strong.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8100 yuan/ton on December 1st, and the average price on December 29th was 8230 yuan/ton, with a 1.6% increase in quotation during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9137 yuan/ton on December 1st, and the average price on December 29th was 9082 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.60 during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8550 yuan/ton on December 1st, and the average price on December 29th was 8500 yuan/ton, with a 0.58% decrease in quotation during this period.

In December, the polyethylene market experienced ups and downs, with LLDPE showing a slightly sustained strong trend, while LDPE and HDPE showed a slight decline. The tense geopolitical situation, expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and rising international oil prices have to some extent supported the polyethylene market on the cost side. There are not many maintenance devices in the enterprise, and short maintenance is the main focus, with sufficient supply of polyethylene. The operating rate of downstream products is showing a downward trend, with a decrease in agricultural film operating rate and a slight increase in packaging film operating rate, mainly driven by holiday demand. Overall, downstream demand is weak, and procurement is relatively cautious. Traders adjust their offers and have a strong willingness to sell at a discounted price.

On December 29th, the opening price of the polyethylene l2405 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 8280 yuan, and the closing price was 8280 yuan, a decrease of 23 yuan. The highest price was 8299 yuan, and the lowest was 8255 yuan, a decrease of 0.28%. The trend of futures in December was relatively strong, driving up the spot price of polyethylene.

Linear products are driven by the strength of futures, with spot prices slowly and slightly rising, and the market trends of high-pressure and low-pressure products are weak; The demand for greenhouse film has decreased, and the demand for plastic film is slowly following up. The Spring Festival plastic film is gradually starting, and overall, the market demand in January is weak; Adequate supply side; It is expected that polyethylene will mainly fluctuate weakly, with limited upward space.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of cryolite in Henan region remained stable this week. On December 29th, the average market price in Henan region was 7700 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price of 7700 yuan/ton on December 25th, and a decrease of 0.32% compared to the beginning of the month.

This week, the ice crystal market continued to remain stable, with a slight decrease in upstream product prices and a decrease in ice crystal costs. However, the spot supply of raw materials is tight, and prices are still at a relatively high level. There is still cost support for ice crystal enterprises, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak. Purchasing is mainly based on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is average. The ice crystal market is watching and operating. As of December 29th, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The ex factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7000 and 8700 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market has slightly decreased, with an average market price of 3531.25 yuan/ton on December 26th, a decrease of 0.35% compared to the price of 3543.75 yuan/ton on December 25th. The tight exploitation of upstream mines and the shortage of raw materials have restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises, and some manufacturers have limited production. However, towards the end of the year, some small factories have engaged in low-priced inventory clearance behavior, resulting in poor fluorite sales and poor downstream procurement. On site prices have slightly decreased, weakening support for cryolite.

Market forecast: Ice crystal raw materials are tight, and cost pressure on ice crystal enterprises still exists. Ice crystal manufacturers mainly raise prices, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak, and they are more resistant to high priced ice crystal. However, at the same time, upstream prices are lowered, and downstream bearish sentiment is more. The downward momentum of ice crystal prices is increased, and it is expected that the ice crystal market will continue to decline, with slight price fluctuations. In the future, attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the spot price of styrene in Shandong Province rose first and then fell in December. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8400.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8580.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.14%. The lowest point was on December 6th, with a price of 8175.00 yuan/ton. The current price has increased by 6.69% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

In December, the market price of styrene first fell and then rose. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly declining since October. This month, the market has been declining for three weeks and rising for one week, with the decline being greater than the increase. The main reason for the decline is the decline in international oil prices, poor cost support, a stalemate between supply and demand of styrene, slow transactions, and a continuous decline in the market. After the market bottomed out, it rebounded, but the magnitude was small and the upward trend was weak.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene fell first and then rose in December, with a price of 6992 yuan/ton on December 1st; On December 30th, the price was 7222 yuan/ton. Recently, negotiations for pure benzene in East China have been active, with prices rising and traders actively shipping at high prices. Shandong Refinery has good transactions and inventory levels continue to be low. By the end of the week, after Shandong pure benzene rose to 7150 yuan/ton, transactions began to slow down, and some downstream and traders began to resist high prices.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream markets of styrene saw mixed fluctuations in December. At the beginning of this month, the average price of PS was 9666 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of PS was 9566.67 yuan/ton. The cost of PS is supported, and the market trading is average. It is expected that the short-term domestic PS (polystyrene) price may mainly fluctuate and consolidate

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the price of EPS ordinary materials fluctuated and fell in December. The average quote for EPS ordinary materials at the beginning of the month was 10076.00 yuan/ton, and the average price for EPS ordinary materials at the end of the month was 10000.00 yuan/ton. In December, domestic EPS prices were affected by the decline in costs, and it is expected that the domestic EPS market will mainly experience a narrow range decline trend.

The domestic ABS market declined in December. In the early stage, the domestic ABS industry had a high load, but recently, due to supply pressure, some enterprises have seen a decrease in load. But the decline in average operating rate is narrow, and the current industry load is still above 73%. The production of the enterprise is relatively stable, and the inventory position has decreased due to some new contracts. The improvement of the company’s loss situation is limited, and the supply pressure is relatively high.

At present, the restart of the styrene plant is greater than the maintenance, and there is an expectation of an increase in supply. However, due to the decline in international oil prices and poor cost support, the expected short-term volatility in the styrene market is mainly downward.

Recently (12.18-12.26), the market for dichloromethane has been fluctuating and consolidating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 26th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2427 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% from 2425 yuan/ton on December 18th; The low point within the cycle is 2360 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol fluctuates narrowly, the price of liquid chlorine continues to decline, and the cost center of dichloromethane shifts downwards; At present, there is not much inventory pressure on enterprises, but the purchasing willingness of terminals and merchants is low, the shipment volume of merchants is small, and the bearish atmosphere in the market is spreading. As of December 26th, the factory price of dichloromethane loose water has been adjusted narrowly, and as of December 26th, the mainstream factory price of dichloromethane loose water in Shandong region is around 2400-2500 yuan/ton.

Recently (12.18-12.26), the domestic methane chloride production has fluctuated narrowly. Jiangxi Liwen started to shut down for maintenance on December 17th and plans to restart soon.

Recently (12.18-12.26), the price of raw material methanol fluctuated narrowly, and the price of liquid chlorine continued to decline, resulting in weak cost support for dichloromethane. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of December 26th, the spot price of methanol was 2465 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.61% from 2450 yuan/ton on December 18th, and the highest point in the cycle was 2505 yuan/ton. As of December 26th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around -100 yuan/ton, continuing to decline.

The domestic supply of methane chloride is still relatively loose, and the supply of domestic dichloromethane will continue to be loose after the restart of Jiangxi Liwen plant. In addition, downstream demand is weak. Although the inventory pressure of enterprises can still be borne, the bearish atmosphere in the market is becoming stronger, and enterprises are expected to gradually accumulate inventory.

Market forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst from Business Society, the demand for dichloromethane is weak in the short term, while the supply is relatively loose, which has a bearish impact on the dichloromethane market. In addition, the lower raw material prices have weakened the cost support for dichloromethane, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will be weak and consolidate in the later period.