1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average price of stearic acid 1840 this week was around 8510 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton compared to before the Spring Festival, with a growth rate of 1.67%. The price of imported stearic acid in Indonesia ranges from 9500 yuan/ton to 8200 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side: In early March, the palm oil market fluctuated and rose by more than 1%, with an average palm oil market price of 7842 yuan/ton. The estimate for Malaysian palm oil production in the external market has been lowered, with bullish factors still present. There is still room for an upward trend in the palm oil market in the future. Overall, the cost is relatively strong in the face of spot support.

Demand side: The PVC spot market prices continued to rise this week. The average market price of PVC is 5632 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 0.42%. This week, the load rate of the PVC industry is higher than 8 floors, with an increase in PVC export orders. This week, the load rate of steel tire enterprises in the industry continued to increase, with a load rate of more than 7.8 floors in the semi steel tire industry and less than 7 floors in the full steel tire industry.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that the upward trend in the upstream palm oil market this week has provided strong support for the cost side. The downstream PVC operating rate is at a high level, and the terminal steel tire industry operating rate has also increased, which is a favorable factor for the stearic acid market. Overall, the market for stearic acid is gradually heating up, and it is expected that the stearic acid market will operate steadily and strongly in the short term.

Recently (3.1-3.11), the market for dichloromethane has fluctuated and risen. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of March 11th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2240 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.99% from 2175 yuan/ton on the first day, and the low point in the cycle was 2155 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol fluctuates narrowly, while the price of liquid chlorine remains stable, with support for the cost of dichloromethane; The inventory levels of merchants and terminals in Shandong region are generally low, but inquiries are cautious; Some production enterprises have raised their factory prices due to relatively low inventory levels, resulting in a slight increase in merchant offers. As of March 11th, the factory price of mainstream dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong region is around 2230-2250 yuan/ton.

Recently (3.1-3.11), there has been a slight fluctuation in the domestic supply of methane chlorides, with an overall production rate of around 6.80%.

Recently (3.1-3.11), the price of raw material methanol has fluctuated narrowly, while the price of liquid chlorine has remained stable, and the cost of dichloromethane continues to support. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of March 11th, the spot price of methanol was 2730 yuan/ton, which is 0.33% higher than the 2740 yuan/ton on March 1st; The low point within the cycle is 2691 yuan/ton. As of March 11th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 300 yuan/ton.

After the holiday, downstream production has gradually increased, with low levels of inventory for merchants and terminals. However, we are cautious in observing and inquiring about the future market, and mainly support the demand for dichloromethane.

Market forecast: Methane chloride data analysts from Business Society believe that although some companies currently have low inventory, terminal inquiries are cautious; The price of raw material methanol fluctuates narrowly, while the price of liquid chlorine remains stable in the short term. Overall, it is expected that the market for dichloromethane will mainly fluctuate in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of aniline has stabilized this week. On March 4th, the market price of aniline was 10537 yuan/ton. On March 8th, the price was 10537 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.09% from last week and 13.63% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: Yesterday, discussions on the price increase of pure benzene in the East China market were positive, but the industry is concerned about the subsequent downstream maintenance situation, and the price increase space is limited. Overnight crude oil and styrene prices have risen, and sellers are optimistic about the future market. The willingness to ship has decreased, and it is expected that prices will fluctuate and rise today. On Friday (March 8th), the price of pure benzene was 8261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.61% from last week and an increase of 13.67% from the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this week. On March 4th, the price was 1873 yuan/ton, and on March 8th, the price was 1840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.15% from last week and a decrease of 25.89% from the same period last year.

3、 Future expectations

The shipment situation of the aniline factory is average, while downstream factories are cautious and have low purchasing enthusiasm. It is expected that the aniline market will operate weakly.

In February, the domestic first tier sponge titanium market first rose and then stabilized. Large enterprises have made an upward adjustment of around 2000 yuan.

According to the data monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of February 28th, the benchmark price of first-class sponge titanium in Shengyishe was 54000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.85% compared to the beginning of this month (51500.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of cost:

In February, due to factors such as high cost and rising electricity prices, several production companies raised the price of sponge titanium. After the Spring Festival, the high titanium slag market started operating normally with sufficient inventory, but the high price of raw titanium ore put pressure on the production cost of high titanium slag; In addition, the shutdown of some slag plants has led to weak and stable market operation. In addition, the impact of imported titanium rich materials has led to weak operation of the high titanium slag market.

In terms of downstream demand:

After the Spring Festival, the market gradually recovered. The demand in the military industry market is stable, with a slight increase in demand for civilian products.

Post forecast:

According to the prediction of sponge titanium analysts from Business Society, the sponge titanium market will operate steadily in March due to factors such as the release of new market capacity, increased production, and high support for raw materials. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of stearic acid 1840 in February was between 7850 yuan/ton and 9000 yuan/ton, with the mainstream price around 8500 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan per ton compared to before the Spring Festival, with a growth rate of 0.6%. The price of imported stearic acid in Indonesia ranges from 9500 yuan/ton to 8200 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side: Starting from February 1st, the Malaysian palm oil market has declined, with sluggish market transactions and a weak decline in the palm oil market. After the holiday, palm oil rose and spot prices followed suit. In February, the overall palm oil market oscillated and rose. After the holiday, stearic acid factories have gradually resumed work, with an industry load rate of around 4.5 floors. Overall, the cost is relatively strong in the face of spot support.

Demand side: The PVC spot market prices will remain stable with an increase after the year. At present, the spot market situation is average, and the trading situation is relatively light. The PVC industry is currently operating at a high level. At present, the on-site inventory is about 580000 tons, an increase of over 14% compared to before the holiday, indicating sufficient inventory.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In February, the price of stearic acid showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the demand for concentrated consumption of upstream oils and fats increased. The palm oil market will continue to remain strong, and the cost will face strong support from spot goods. However, imported goods are gradually entering the port, and there is ample inventory in the stearic acid market. The downstream PVC trading situation is relatively light, mainly focused on consumption and storage. Therefore, it is expected that the stearic acid market will remain stable in the short term.

Aluminum prices slightly rebounded at the end of the month

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on February 29, 2024 was 18876.67 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices have steadily increased this week, up 160 yuan/ton from Monday’s market average price of 18716.67 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.85%.

Based on monthly data, the current price is close to the pre holiday (February 8th) aluminum price of 18860 yuan/ton%. In the long term, the current price is in the “M” type price state since the second half of 2023, and the price level has been in the upper middle level in the past year.

Overview of fundamentals this week

Supply side influencing factors

On the news side, the power outage incident at an aluminum plant in Inner Mongolia may affect production capacity, and actual production changes are limited; In the southwest direction, Yunnan has good precipitation, and the hydroelectric power generation may drive the resumption of a small amount of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in March. Yunnan’s early production reduction has been basically completed, and the risk of subsequent production reduction is relatively small. It is expected that Yunnan’s production will steadily increase slightly before the rainy season, with little variation.

Demand side influencing factors

After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), the downstream consumption gradually recovered, the auto and photovoltaic sectors started to work fairly well, and the construction sector started to recover at a low rate recently. The overall demand has improved.

Future Market Forecast

The traditional peak season for consumption is approaching, and downstream demand may improve. The production capacity and operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, aluminum plates and strips, aluminum foils, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys are gradually recovering with the resumption of production and work. The future spot trading is expected to improve from the current light trend. It is expected that aluminum prices will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of locally refined petroleum coke has slightly increased this week. As of February 29, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1682.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.75% from 1670.00 yuan/ton on February 26.

Cost side: The international crude oil market has been fluctuating in recent times, with a significant increase in crude oil prices during the Spring Festival. After the holiday, the crude oil market is mainly fluctuating in the range. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains the main driving factor for the crude oil market; In addition, the expected reduction in production by oil producing countries is also a major factor supporting oil prices. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has issued hawkish signals, delaying interest rate cuts and suppressing market confidence; The total number of oil and natural gas drilling rigs of state-owned energy enterprises has increased to the highest level since August 2023, and crude oil prices have been suppressed.

On the supply side, the price of petroleum coke fluctuated this week, with downstream rigid demand procurement supporting the price of petroleum coke; The shipment of imported sponge coke is stable, and traders mainly execute orders.

On the demand side: As of February 22, China has started operating 308 silicon metal furnaces, with an overall furnace opening rate of 41.1%, an increase of 1 furnace compared to last week. This week, the situation of industrial silicon furnace opening has stabilized, and the market is still in the post holiday recovery period. Enterprises are basically starting production according to the pre holiday scale, and the number of starts will gradually increase. The supply is expected to increase this week. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

This week, sulfur calcined coke remained stable, with average transactions. Downstream demand release was relatively slow, and the operation of the calcined coke market was cautious.

This week, aluminum prices have slightly increased, and the traditional peak consumption season is approaching. Downstream demand may gradually recover, and the production capacity and operating rate of China’s leading aluminum downstream industry enterprises are expected to rise. Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises still have a demand for petroleum coke, and multi-dimensional support is needed for procurement.

Market forecast: In March, the coking plant in the refinery will enter the peak maintenance season, and the supply of petroleum coke from local refineries may decrease; But currently, downstream demand is limited, and the market maintains a focus on essential procurement; In addition, the continuous arrival of imported petroleum coke at the port may increase the storage of petroleum coke in the port. Overall, it is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke will slightly increase in the near future.

Zinc prices fell first and then rose in February

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 29th, the price of zinc was 20528 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.82% from the zinc price of 20908 yuan/ton on February 1st; The zinc price has increased by 1.28% compared to February 19th, 20268 yuan/ton. In February, the zinc market crossed the Spring Festival. Prior to the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises in the zinc market had increased parking, resulting in weak demand for zinc. Inventory in the London and Shanghai futures markets increased significantly, leading to an increase in zinc supply and a significant fluctuation in zinc prices; After the holiday, demand for zinc in the market slowly rebounded, inventory in the zinc market fell, and zinc prices stopped falling and rose.

London LME zinc ingot inventory increase

During the Spring Festival, LME zinc ingot inventory in the London futures market accumulated significantly. As of February 19th, LME zinc ingot inventory was 270050 tons, a significant increase from February 6th inventory of 196775 tons. After the holiday, zinc ingot inventory slightly decreased. Overall, the supply of zinc ingots in the London futures market increased in February, and the supply of zinc in the international market increased. Zinc prices fluctuated and fell before the holiday, but rebounded after the holiday.

Increase in zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market

In February, the zinc ingot inventory in the Shanghai futures market increased significantly, with a slight decrease in zinc ingot inventory in the latter half of the year. Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased significantly, and the supply of zinc in the market increased. In February, zinc prices fluctuated and fell. After the holiday, as demand rebounded, zinc prices stopped falling and rebounded.

Slow increase in demand after holidays

Before the Spring Festival holiday, downstream enterprises in the zinc market parked more, resulting in weak demand for zinc. After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream enterprises slowly resumed production, and demand for zinc slowly increased. However, downstream enterprises have not fully resumed production, and the overall production did not meet market expectations. As a result, zinc prices fluctuated and fell overall in February. Insufficient demand after the holiday, insufficient support for the rise of the zinc market, and strong fluctuations in the zinc market in February.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, zinc ingot inventories in the London futures market LME and Shanghai futures market increased significantly in February, leading to an increase in zinc supply in the market; Downstream enterprises resumed production after the holiday, coupled with a warming macroeconomic environment, the demand for zinc in the market has rebounded. Overall, the zinc market saw a double increase in supply and demand in February, with zinc prices falling first and then rising. However, downstream construction did not meet market expectations, and the support for zinc price increases was insufficient. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7400.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7330.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95%. The current price has dropped by 19.63% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate fell in February. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has been declining for three consecutive months recently, and the market has continued to decline this month. The overall market for raw material potassium chloride has fluctuated downward, with poor cost support and poor downstream operating rates. After the Spring Festival, the transaction volume in the potassium carbonate market has been weak, and the market has continued to decline. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate is around 7150-7300 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall trend of potassium chloride market in February was downward. The prices of salt lakes and Zangge potassium chloride are temporarily stable, but new transactions are limited. The downstream market for potassium chloride continues to decline, with weakened downstream demand and a focus on essential procurement. Recently, international potassium fertilizer has also shown a weak trend. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

At present, there is sufficient supply of imported potassium, and the price of 62% white potassium is mostly between 2430-2450 yuan/ton, with poor cost support. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly increase in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, 1 # tin ingot in East China fluctuated and fell this week (2.18-2.23). The average market price at the beginning of last week was 214400 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the beginning of this week was 216660 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.05%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of supply, the progress of RKAB mines in Indonesia is slow, and imports from Wa State are still in the recovery stage. In the near future, the supply of tin mines will still be mainly from other regions, and the overall supply at the mining end remains tight. In terms of demand, downstream demand has shown good performance recently. In January, welding material companies started production higher, and the overall market mentality has improved. After the holiday, downstream related companies actively resumed work. Currently, production has steadily rebounded, and the festive atmosphere in the market is still strong. Downstream companies have a low demand for restocking. Overall, the upstream and downstream are actively resuming work, and it will still take some time to resume normal production. The tight supply at the mining end has boosted market sentiment. This week, as enterprises gradually resume normal production and the market atmosphere is expected to improve, the market will remain stable in the short term.

Related data:

On February 25th, the base metal index was 1166 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 81.62% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On February 25th, the non-ferrous index was at 1091 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.06% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.74% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 8th week of 2024 (2.19-2.23), there were a total of 7 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there was 1 commodity with a growth rate of more than 5%, accounting for 4% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were nickel (7.20%), silver (1.78%), and copper (1.44%). There are 14 products with a month on month decline, and 2 products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were neodymium oxide (-5.56%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (-5.50%), and praseodymium neodymium oxide (-4.40%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.94%.