According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has skyrocketed since the 11th. As of August 12th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 75733 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.28% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 13.58% compared to the same period last year; The benchmark price for industrial grade lithium carbonate trading is 74166 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.95% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 12.75% compared to the same period last year.
Ningwang Mining Area suspends production, lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit up
On July 7th, the Natural Resources Bureau of Yichun City issued a notice requiring 8 lithium mining enterprises to complete the preparation of verification reports on changes in mineral types and reserves before September 30th, involving 8 enterprises. On August 9th, the Jiangxi Jianxiawo mining area under Ningde Times suspended mining due to the expiration of its mining rights certificate, and the shutdown may last for more than three months. As soon as the news was released, the market reacted violently. On August 11th, the main contract LC2511 for lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit up, reaching 81000 yuan/ton, an increase of 8%. At present, except for the expiration of the mining license for the porcelain clay mine in the Jianxiawo mining area of Ningde Times, the mining licenses of the other seven mines will expire after 2027. The probability of a complete shutdown of the mine during the renewal period of the mining rights certificate is relatively low.
In the short term, the suspension of production at the Ningde Times mining site has had an impact on the domestic supply of lithium mica. However, in terms of supply structure, the production at the salt lake site has not been directly affected, and overseas imports have also provided an increase in supply.
Demand side: The off-season for new energy vehicles is not weak, and the demand for energy storage is growing structurally
Resilience of demand for new energy vehicles:
In July, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.18 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25% and a month on month decrease of 4%, which is in line with seasonal characteristics. At the policy level, the reduction and exemption of purchase tax for new energy vehicles and the trade in policy will continue until next year, and it is expected that demand will maintain steady growth in the second half of the year. However, there is a risk of a ‘weak peak season’, and if the production schedule for August and September falls short of expectations, it may suppress the upward potential of prices.
Differentiation of demand in the field of energy storage:
In the short term, large-scale energy storage project bidding is strongly driven by policies, but the growth rate of household energy storage has slowed down due to insufficient economic viability. In the long run, the penetration of sodium batteries in the energy storage field may divert some lithium demand. However, the current cost of sodium batteries is still higher than that of lithium batteries (0.5 yuan/Wh vs 0.32 yuan/Wh), and large-scale substitution still requires time.
The data analyst of Business Society’s lithium carbonate believes that the price of lithium carbonate has been operating strongly due to supply disturbances recently, but in the medium term, attention should be paid to overseas incremental release and demand verification.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 4th to 8th, MTBE prices rose from 5030 yuan/ton to 5120 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.79% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 2.91%, and a year-on-year decrease of 24.15%. The domestic MTBE market is operating steadily, with prices experiencing a slight increase. Large manufacturers such as Lihua Yi export to the port and currently have no exports, which provides significant support to the market. At the same time, some large manufacturers mainly deliver for export, resulting in a decrease in export volume. Under this support, MTBE manufacturers maintain high prices for shipments.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: international oil prices have significantly fallen, mainly due to negative factors such as OPEC+production increase bringing negative pressure, temporary easing of geopolitical situation, and continued global economic weakness. As of August 7th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the October contract was $66.43 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, international crude oil futures continue to fall, and the refined oil market is weak and declining. The main reason is that the weakness of crude oil has always shrouded the oil market, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the oil market. Intermediate traders have a weak intention to place orders, while gas station merchants are mainly in urgent need of replenishment. Therefore, refineries have to lower prices and promote sales due to inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.
Supply side: Short term domestic MTBE supply side is affected by favorable factors.
As of the close on August 7th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $4.97/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $654.41-656.41/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $13/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $794.49-794.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $4.57 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $707.08-707.44 per ton (199.65-199.75 cents per gallon).
In the future, it is predicted that the cost price will remain high, and coupled with some large manufacturers still delivering for export, the export volume is not large, so there is a high probability that the market will remain firm and consolidate. The MTBE analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic MTBE market is mainly dominated by strong consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 4th to 8th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port quotations rose from 2375 yuan/ton and then fell to around 2378 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.11% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 1.31%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.78%. The domestic methanol market is mainly on the rise, with local supply and maintenance combined with the increase in olefin production in mainland China. Against the backdrop of low inventory, the tight supply of circulating goods in the market has led to companies being reluctant to sell at high prices. Traders are actively chasing after the rise due to the impact of buying, while downstream buyers are passively purchasing at high prices.

As of the close on August 8th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has been lowered. The main contract for methanol futures, 2509, opened at 2391 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2399 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2378 yuan/ton. It closed at 2383 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 12 yuan or 0.50% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 299310 lots, the open position is 407074, and the daily increase is -29603.
On the cost side, the contraction of coal supply dominates the market, and coal prices continue to rise, with increased support from the cost side. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, glacial acetic acid: The market price of glacial acetic acid is mainly stable, and the overall shipping sentiment of factories is average. Traders and downstream suppliers mainly replenish on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is flat. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market is stable with an upward trend. The focus of raw material methanol is increasing, and factories in the main production areas are passively raising prices due to cost increases, resulting in weak downstream demand. Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market is consolidating horizontally. The price of methanol, a raw material in the main production areas, has been rising narrowly, and costs continue to strengthen. The domestic demand for dimethyl ether market is relatively weak, and buying gas support is inadequate. Most downstream products have been affected by the rise in methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards favorable factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of August 7th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at a price of 332.5-333.5 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 95-96 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 268.5-269.5 euros/ton, up 7 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, the accumulation of social inventory in ports, the resumption of maintenance of methanol enterprises in mainland China, the increase in olefin procurement, and the demand side support for price increases will be more significant. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market is expected to strengthen and consolidate.

The price of ethylene glycol remained strong in July and slightly fell at the end of the month
In July, the price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell, showing an inverted “V” trend. In the early stage, influenced by anti involution sentiment, the price of bulk commodities showed an upward trend, and the price of ethylene glycol steadily rose. From a fundamental perspective, in mid July, there were rumors circulating in the market that ethylene glycol was negatively affected by Zhejiang Petrochemical’s EG reduction, problems with Shenghong CDU, unplanned maintenance of Singapore Shell, delayed shipment from Saudi Arabia, and the satellite’s PE opening but EG not opening in August, as well as another cracking stop in August. These news had a relatively positive impact on the supply of ethylene glycol, coupled with low port inventory data and a significant rebound in raw coal prices. As a result, the price of ethylene glycol rose significantly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ethanol market showed a unilateral upward trend in July. From July 1st to 31st, the average price of domestic ethanol producers increased narrowly from 5655 yuan/ton to 5677 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of 0.38% during the period and a year-on-year price decline of 5.58%.

At the beginning of the month, with high cost support, the pressure on ethanol costs further deepened, and short-term on-site transactions were limited.
In the first half of the month, cost support weakened, supply side equipment is about to recover, downstream demand has not changed significantly, and the ethanol market is digesting the increase.
In the middle of the month, the price of raw corn decreased narrowly, and cost support weakened. At present, the domestic ethanol market is showing a weak supply-demand situation, and the ethanol market is mainly focused on consolidation and observation.
At the end of the month, the domestic ethanol market prices remained stable, with some factories experiencing price increases but no actual orders. Downstream chemical companies also made essential purchases, resulting in a slight decrease in transaction prices.
On the cost side, in the first half of the month, the center of gravity of corn prices continued to shift upwards. At present, the average weekly price of corn in China is 2437 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 15 yuan/ton. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors. The overall price of corn is still weak, the market atmosphere is weak, and spot prices continue to decline. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the supply side, there is little fluctuation in the production of edible ethanol. The Huanan plant in Heilongjiang Province produces it, while the Jixian line produces it. Laha has resumed full production. The Bayan plant is expected to shut down on the 29th, while Wanli Runda’s edible and fuel facilities have already shut down. Zhongke Green’s production and Shenglong’s plant have also shut down. The impact of ethanol supply is mixed.
On the demand side, downstream chemical delivery prices have slightly decreased, and ethanol consumption has decreased. Short term ethanol demand is influenced by bearish factors.
The future forecast shows that the supply side will increase and decrease, and the cost advantage will decrease. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term ethanol market trend will mainly focus on observation and consolidation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the month was 12566 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 12833/ton, with a price increase of 2.12%.

Domestic manufacturers’ quotations for activated carbon have increased this month, with the ex factory price of coconut shell water purification activated carbon (iodine value 1000) ranging from 10000 to 13500 yuan/ton. The demand for coconut shell activated carbon in traditional fields such as water treatment and air purification continues to grow, and market demand is accelerating. Industry insiders are mostly optimistic about the future market.
Internationally, in 2024, multiple natural disasters will occur: Thailand will experience a reduction in coconut production due to drought and pest infestations, while some production areas in Indonesia will be affected by abnormal rainfall at the end of the rainy season, resulting in a decrease in coconut shell collection efficiency and supporting price increases. The import price of coconut shell carbonization material specifications, including taxes, has exceeded the 8000 yuan/ton mark.
Prediction: The domestic supply of activated carbon raw materials is tight, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate with a strong trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has been running steadily this week. The average market price over the weekend was 27200 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.12% and a year-on-year increase of 35.32%. On July 24th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 95.09, up 0.7 points from yesterday, down 61.22% from the highest point of 245.18 points during the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 61.39% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
This week, the price of bromine has remained stable, with a reference price of 26500-28000 yuan/ton for spot bromine production in Shandong region. Due to environmental policies, some enterprises have not fully resumed production. Most manufacturers focus on stabilizing prices, while downstream enterprises prioritize urgent needs. In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur price has risen, with an average market price of 2291 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2354.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price has increased by 2.76%, which is 86.11% higher than the same period last year. Downstream demand is generally average.
Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain strong in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to rise. Bromine prices are expected to rise this week, and downstream buyers are expected to purchase as needed. Bromine enterprises focus on stabilizing prices. It is expected that bromine will continue to consolidate and operate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on July 21 was 1196 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.97% compared to the average price of 1233 yuan/ton on July 14.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices have weakened and fallen. This week, the operating rate of ammonium sulfate domestic enterprises has remained stable, while the operating rate of coking enterprises has decreased. At present, the supply of ammonium sulfate in the market is stable, but downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened, and the market transaction atmosphere has weakened. Recently, the export market for ammonium sulfate has been average, and the market’s mentality of buying up rather than buying down has increased.
market conditions
As of July 21st, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 1125 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1130-1170 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of the ammonium sulfate market is mainly downward. At present, there is no positive news in the ammonium sulfate market, with a decrease in market inquiries and cautious downstream procurement. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will be weak and stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method for producing pyrite type titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of goods in the domestic market, as an example. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market price has remained stable this week. The average market price of titanium dioxide this week is 13660 yuan/ton.
2、 Market analysis
The domestic price of titanium dioxide has remained stable this week. This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market has temporarily stabilized and consolidated. Upstream sulfuric acid is rising, and the low prices of Panzhihua ore are weakly stable. Overall, enterprise costs are still under pressure. Downstream demand remains sluggish, the end market falls short of expectations, and purchasing is cautious, resulting in limited new orders. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 12900-14100 yuan/ton; The price of Ruiti type is around 11900-12300 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.
3、 Future forecast
The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market has been stagnant and consolidating this week. Downstream market demand is poor, market transactions are sluggish, and the market is mainly deadlocked and wait-and-see. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will remain weak and stable in the short term, with actual transaction prices subject to negotiation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 14th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 1838 yuan/ton, which is 0.42% higher than the reference average price of 1834 yuan/ton on July 7th.
2、 Market analysis
market conditions
The domestic urea market continued to rise and then stopped rising and fell. This week, due to higher than expected printing prices, the optimism in the nitrogen fertilizer market has increased, boosting the domestic urea market and causing urea prices to rise. The urea market has seen a rise in trading volume and increased trading volume. Due to the decline in urea futures prices over the weekend, the urea spot market prices have fallen. As of July 14th, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1780-1835 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1760-1810 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1780-1840 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1810 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1870 yuan/ton.
Supply and demand situation
This week, the supply and demand of the domestic urea market remained stable. On the supply side, some companies underwent equipment maintenance this week, resulting in a decrease in daily production, but the supply of urea in the market remains loose. In terms of demand, downstream essential fertilizer preparation is the main focus. At present, compound fertilizer manufacturers are following up on demand and are cautious about raw material procurement.
3、 Future forecast
The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of the domestic urea market has stopped rising and fallen. Market inventory remains high, coupled with the weakening of the futures market, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic urea price will be weak and mainly operated through consolidation.