According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated sharply recently. As of April 1st, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 158000 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 8.67% and a year-on-year increase of 113.61%.

This round of market trend is no longer simply driven by supply and demand, but the result of multiple disturbances and repeated fermentation on the supply side, as well as the amplification of emotions in a low inventory environment.
Supply side: Two major sources of disturbance repeatedly ferment
（1） Zimbabwe: Export ban ‘pending’
On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe suddenly announced an indefinite suspension of lithium ore and lithium concentrate exports, covering goods in transit.
Affected by this news, the price of lithium carbonate jumped from 140000/ton to 170000/ton. Recently, there have been talks between Chinese funded enterprises and the government, but the details have not been implemented yet. The market oscillates between “relaxation of bans” and “long-term tightening”, and every rumor triggers a huge price shock.
（2） Australia: ‘Oil Shortage Storm’
Affected by the situation in the Middle East, there is a shortage of diesel in some mines in Australia, and there are reports of “load reduction and compression operations”. Lithium carbonate saw a daily increase of 8000 yuan/ton. Although it was later clarified that Australian diesel is mainly used in the transportation sector, and mining electricity mainly relies on natural gas, so it has not yet affected lithium mining production, the continent’s lithium mines are facing problems such as declining grade, slowing expansion, and reduced production of high cost mines during low price periods, resulting in a significant decrease in supply elasticity. Any marginal disturbance is easily amplified as a ‘risk of supply interruption’.
Bottom level environment: low inventory+demand resilience, amplifying the power of supply disruptions
At the end of March, inventory shifted from destocking to accumulation, but the magnitude was small and still at a low level. The overall social inventory is low, and once the supply tightens and expectations rise, it is highly likely to trigger “grabbing” and price surges. There is no obvious collapse on the demand side, and geopolitical factors have led to an increase in oil prices. The economy of energy storage is prominent, and the market momentum is strong.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the uncertainty of resuming production in Zimbabwe, Australia, and the suspended Ningde Jianxiawo will exist for a long time. Every policy change and logistics obstruction may trigger a new round of ups and downs, and lithium carbonate prices may fluctuate. Specific changes in supply and demand still need to be monitored.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene in the Shandong region has fluctuated and fallen this month. On March 1st, the price was 6160 yuan/ton; On March 31st, the price was 8586.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 39.39% from the beginning of the month. Affected by the Middle East conflict and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the highest price of pure benzene this month was 12002.33 yuan/ton on March 9th.
2、 Market analysis
Pure benzene: Today, the domestic market price of pure benzene continues to rise. International crude oil futures have risen, and the price of pure benzene has increased in foreign markets. Domestic contract holders are actively replenishing and delivering at the end of the month, leading to an increase in market trading volume. Recently, Shandong Pure Benzene Refinery has been selling in large quantities, resulting in a price increase. The price of pure benzene in Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China has remained stable at 9000 yuan/ton, and will be implemented on March 30th. It is expected that the pure benzene market will experience slight fluctuations in the short term.
This month, Sinopec has raised the price of pure benzene by 2700 yuan/ton to 9000 yuan/ton.
Downstream aspects
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil futures: On March 30th, international crude oil futures continued to rise. The settlement price of the May WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $102.88 per barrel, an increase of $3.24 or 3.3%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in June was $107.39 per barrel, an increase of $2.07 or 2.0%.
Foreign pure benzene: On March 30th, foreign pure benzene: FOB Korea rose 30 to $1148/ton, CFR China rose 30 to $1157/ton. FOB Rotterdam rose by 34 to $1200 per ton, while FOB USG remained stable at 413 cents per gallon.
Overall forecast: Due to the impact of the Middle East conflict and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the pure benzene market is expected to have a strong overall sentiment in the short term. We still need to wait and see more news on the cost and demand sides. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 30th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 5500 yuan/ton. The DMF market price has recently risen narrowly, and currently the DMF market is operating in a narrow and strong direction.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of the market, the upstream methanol market is currently experiencing strong price fluctuations, with limited room for price increases and limited support for DMF costs. Dimethylamine supply is concentrated, mainly produced by large enterprises with high industry concentration and relatively stable prices. The DMF market supply is stable.
Demand side: Currently, the downstream demand for DMF in the market is average, with a decreasing proportion but still the main force. It used to occupy half of DMF consumption for a long time, with a proportion of up to 59% in 2021 and dropping to around 42% in 2025. Pharmaceutical and pesticide intermediates have rigid demand and are steadily growing. As an important solvent for organic reactions, DMF is irreplaceable in the synthesis of antibiotics, anti-tumor drugs, and pesticides. By 2025, the proportion of consumption in this field will increase to 28%, and the demand for high-purity (pharmaceutical grade) products will continue to rise. The process of domestic substitution will accelerate, and electronic chemicals will be the largest growth engine, with an average annual growth rate of 18.5%
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the DMF market is mainly operating in a strong direction with limited upward potential, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced.

The price of plasticizer DOP increased significantly in March

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 9th, the DOP price was 9375.83 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 21.75% compared to the DOP price of 7700.84 yuan/ton on March 1st. The operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises has increased, with the operating rate rising to around 65% and DOP production increasing; The escalating geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in crude oil prices, which have rapidly spread downstream along the industry chain. The prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride have also risen sharply, as have raw material prices, DOP costs, and plasticizer DOP prices.
The price of raw material isooctanol has significantly increased
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 9th, the price of isooctanol was 9050 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 35.75% compared to the price of 6666.67 yuan/ton on March 1st. Isooctanol enterprises are operating at a high level, and the operating load of their facilities is maintained at around 9.5%, indicating sufficient supply of isooctanol. The escalating geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has led to a surge in crude oil prices that has been transmitted downstream, resulting in a significant increase in isooctanol prices, rising costs of plasticizers, and increased support for DOP increases.
The phthalic anhydride market has seen a significant increase
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 9th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7466.67 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 21.41% compared to the price of 6150 yuan/ton on March 1st. Affected by the intensified geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, crude oil prices have surged, transmitted downstream, and the price of raw material ortho benzene has skyrocketed to 10700 yuan/ton, resulting in a significant increase in the cost of phthalic anhydride. The price of phthalic anhydride has surged, the cost of plasticizers has increased, and the support for the rise in plasticizers has increased.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, the intensification of the Middle East geopolitical crisis has led to a surge in crude oil prices, which has been transmitted downstream. The prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride have also surged, resulting in an increase in the cost of plasticizer DOP. In the future, with the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, high crude oil prices, rising downstream costs, and an increase in supply and demand, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will rise significantly in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the styrene market has continued to rise this week. The average price at the beginning of the week was 7890 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 8910 yuan/ton, with a 12.93% increase during the week.

Macro: On March 5th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the April WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $81.01 per barrel, an increase of $6.35 or 8.5%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for May was $85.41 per barrel, an increase of $4.01 or 4.9%. The escalation of the Middle East conflict has led to supply and transportation disruptions, forcing major producers to reduce production.
On the cost side: Due to the impact of the Middle East war on oil and gas production and supply, international oil prices continue to soar sharply, and the listing prices of pure benzene main refineries have been raised multiple times. Holders of goods are reluctant to sell at low prices, and in the short term, pure benzene may continue to follow the rise of crude oil prices.
Supply and demand side: There will be a lot of maintenance for styrene in March, and it is expected that the supply will shrink. The downstream has basically resumed work, and under high costs, the demand increment is limited.
Styrene external market: On March 5th, the closing price of styrene market in Asia increased by $70/ton, with a closing price of $1115-1125/ton FOB Korea and $1115-1125/ton CFR China.
Market forecast: In the short term, with high raw material prices and supply contraction, it is expected that the styrene market will further rise.

The price of plasticizer DOP has significantly increased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 2nd, the DOP price was 7800.84 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 1.30% compared to the DOP price of 7700.84 yuan/ton on March 1st. The operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises has decreased, with an operating rate of about 57-60% and a decrease in DOP production; Due to the geopolitical impact in the Middle East, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride rebounded and rose on March 2nd, while raw material prices increased and DOP costs rose. The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and increased.
Raw material isooctanol prices rebound and rise
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 2nd, the price of isooctanol was 6833.33 yuan/ton, which rebounded and increased by 2.50% compared to the price of 6666.67 yuan/ton on March 1st. Isooctanol enterprises are operating at a high level, and the operating load of their facilities is maintained at around 9.5%, indicating sufficient supply of isooctanol. Due to the geopolitical impact in the Middle East, the price of isooctanol rebounded and rose on March 2nd, causing an increase in the cost of plasticizers and increasing support for DOP.
Phthalic anhydride market rebounds and rises
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 2nd, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6383.33 yuan/ton, which rebounded and increased by 3.79% compared to the price of 6150 yuan/ton on March 1st; Compared to February 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose by 2.24% to 6243.33 yuan/ton. Affected by geopolitical factors in the Middle East, crude oil prices have surged, raw material prices of ortho benzene have increased, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has risen. The price of phthalic anhydride has rebounded and risen, and the cost of plasticizers has increased. The support for the rise in plasticizers has increased.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, due to the influence of Middle Eastern geopolitical factors, the price of isooctanol has significantly increased, the price of phthalic anhydride has rebounded and risen, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has increased. In the future, with rising costs and weak supply and demand, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene in the Shandong region has fluctuated and fallen this month. On February 1st, the price was 6168.67 yuan/ton; On February 28th, the price was 6160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% from the beginning of the month.
2、 Market analysis
Pure benzene: There was a slight fluctuation in the price range of the domestic pure benzene market today. International crude oil futures have risen, while the price of pure benzene in foreign markets has fluctuated. The confidence in the domestic pure benzene market is average. Shandong pure benzene ground refining has poor shipments, and some manufacturers have slightly lowered their shipping prices. The price of pure benzene in Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China has remained stable at 6150 yuan/ton, to be implemented on January 30th. It is expected that the pure benzene market will experience slight fluctuations in the short term.
This month, the price of pure benzene from Sinopec remained stable at 6150 yuan/ton.
Downstream aspects
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil futures: On February 27th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the April WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $67.02 per barrel, an increase of $1.81 or 2.8%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for May was $72.87 per barrel, an increase of $2.03 or 2.9%.
Foreign pure benzene: On February 27th, FOB Korea fell 9 to 773 US dollars/ton, and CFR China fell 7 to 777 US dollars/ton. FOB Rotterdam has stabilized at $889 per ton, while FOB USG has increased by 5 to 304 cents per gallon.
Overall forecast: The pure benzene market is expected to experience slight fluctuations in the short term, with a wait-and-see attitude towards cost and demand news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

Market Overview: Flash Crash and Restoration

After the Spring Festival, the dichloromethane market in Shandong experienced a sharp price drop, with a daily decline of up to 7.11%. It then quickly stabilized and rebounded continuously in the later part of the week, completing a rapid price reduction, inventory allocation, and price repair.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 27th, the mixed price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was 1720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.77% compared to before the Spring Festival.
Supply side: High inventory is one of the core causes of the market crash after the Spring Festival
During the Spring Festival, enterprises resumed normal production but logistics were suspended, resulting in continuous inventory accumulation. After the resumption of work after the holiday, inventory pressure was concentrated and released. Most production enterprises chose to actively reduce prices and reduce inventory, directly leading to a daily decline of over 7%. When low-priced goods quickly digest inventory, inventory pressure is relieved, and the enterprise’s pricing sentiment is heated up, the quotation gradually tentatively increases. Part of the main equipment in Shandong has been restored, and the industry’s operating rate has rebounded to around 80%.
Demand side: Triple factor resonance, concentrated release of bottom fishing demand
Post holiday stock replenishment: Downstream factories and traders gradually resume work and production after the Spring Festival, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment.
Bottom fishing mentality: After the price fell to a low point this year, it greatly stimulated the stocking willingness of intermediaries and some downstream users, significantly increased market trading volume, and formed an effective pallet force.
Export support: The stable execution of overseas orders also provides an important channel for digesting domestic surplus production, accelerating the process of inventory depletion.
Cost side: Weakening bottom support to make room for price
Liquid chlorine: Inventory in some areas of the Shandong liquid chlorine market remains high, and downstream production has not fully recovered yet. The trend of the liquid chlorine market has declined, and the ex factory price of tank trucks has fallen below 1 yuan/ton. The collapse of liquid chlorine prices has directly weakened the bottom line of cost support for methane chloride enterprises, providing space for enterprises to lower prices and make concessions.
Methanol: The sentiment in the methanol market is weak, with high supply pressure and cautious downstream delivery, resulting in short-term pressure on the market. On February 27th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2185.83 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.7% compared to before the Spring Festival, and the impact on the cost of dichloromethane was relatively limited.
Future outlook:
The current market is in a game stage of “low inventory, recovery of essential demand, and weak cost”. With the full resumption of downstream construction after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, demand is expected to continue to release smoothly. It is expected that the dichloromethane market in Shandong will maintain a strong and volatile pattern in the short term. However, in the absence of strong support from the cost side, the potential for rebound in the future requires close attention to the downstream’s response to the current price increase and the inventory changes of major manufacturers.

1、 Market Overview:

This week, the melamine market showed a stable and positive trend. As of February 26th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society has risen to 5750.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.32% from the beginning of this month, successfully breaking through the integer threshold of 5750 yuan. The synchronous recovery of the spot market reflects the improvement of regional transactions. This round of increase is mainly driven by downstream replenishment demand after the holiday, but the deep game in the market is still fierce.
2、 Cost side:
The price of raw material urea has strengthened from weak to strong, significantly increasing the cost support for melamine. With the start of spring plowing and fertilizer preparation, the release of policies to ensure supply and stabilize prices, and the boost in export expectations, urea prices have clearly increased. As of February 26th, the benchmark price has risen to 1830.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.66% from the beginning of the month. This means that the current price increase of melamine has the dual support of “cost driven” and “demand driven”, which is different from the previous pattern driven solely by demand. However, the inventory of urea companies is still at a high level of 1.176 million tons, and the pressure of accumulated inventory limits their price surge space. Therefore, the cost support for melamine still needs to be dynamically observed.
3、 Supply side:
The supply side exhibits a dual characteristic of “short-term order and long-term pressure”.
Short term: In early February, the industry’s capacity utilization rate was about 57.95%, and some companies had tight supply of goods, so there was no significant pressure to acquire orders at the moment.
Long term: The key variable is that the 120000 ton annual production facility of Xinjiang New Hebei Energy has been successfully put into operation on February 12th, and the new production capacity has officially entered the market. This will gradually increase market supply and intensify industry competition.
Fundamental: The long-term overcapacity pattern in the industry has not changed, and any short-term demand driven increase may be suppressed by sufficient supply capacity.
4、 Demand side:
Downstream demand shows a seasonal rebound. After the end of the Spring Festival holiday, there is a demand for replenishment in industries such as sheet metal, which provides short-term driving force for the market. But the demand is moderate, downstream purchases are mostly on demand, and there has not been large-scale centralized procurement yet. The export market is also stable. This round of demand is supported by a “short-term window period” rather than a strong trend recovery.
5、 Future prospects
Overall, the current market belongs to a short-term demand driven upward trend, and in the context of long-term overcapacity, the upward space will be suppressed. It is expected that the market will remain stable with strong fluctuations in the short term. If demand support weakens in the future and supply increases, the market may face downward pressure.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has been falling at a high level recently. As of February 9th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s battery grade lithium carbonate was 136000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.21% compared to the same period last week (February 2nd), a decrease of 2.86% month on month, and an increase of 71.7% year-on-year.

Supply side: Expectations of loose imports continue to rise
As the Spring Festival approaches, some lithium salt factories are scheduled for maintenance or holidays, resulting in an expected month on month decrease of 16.4% to 82000 tons of domestic lithium carbonate production in February. However, Sigma lithium mine in Brazil resumed production ahead of schedule, and lithium salt exports in Chile increased by 44.82% to 16950 tons in January, causing concerns in the market about short-term supply pressure. Although the increase in such supply is mostly in the form of pulse shipments and not a trend change, it still further suppresses prices in the fragile market sentiment. At the same time, domestic lithium salt factories have abundant raw material inventory, and their willingness to stock up in the long term has increased. Although traders have a strong willingness to raise prices, the market has formed a consensus on the expectation of oversupply, further exacerbating downward pressure on prices.
Demand side: Short term seasonal contraction
During the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream market of lithium carbonate entered the traditional off-season for consumption, and demand showed a phased contraction trend. The production schedule of downstream positive electrode material enterprises has been affected by holiday shutdowns and equipment maintenance, with a month on month decline of 10-15%. Among them, the operating rate of ternary materials has significantly decreased, while lithium iron phosphate has benefited from the support of energy storage demand and remained relatively stable, but the production schedule of top enterprises in February still decreased by 17% month on month. At the same time, downstream enterprises have basically completed pre holiday stocking, and downstream inventory has sharply increased in the past two weeks. Most enterprises have covered the demand in February, and some have even stocked up in advance until early March. The replenishment behavior in the past two days has basically ended, and procurement demand has slowed down significantly in the short term, with only a small amount of essential replenishment, which is difficult to form effective support for prices. In addition, the periodic replenishment that occurs when prices fall sharply (such as the replenishment of about 10000 tons on the day of the limit down on February 5th) is mostly a short-term behavior of downstream bargain hunting, rather than a trend driven demand recovery, and cannot change the pattern of weak short-term demand.
The turbulence in the futures market intensifies, and panic accelerates the downward trend of prices
The sharp drop in futures prices has triggered panic in the spot market, causing traders to completely break their price mentality and significantly increase their willingness to ship. In order to avoid the risk of further price declines, some traders have chosen to sell their inventory at low prices, further lowering spot prices; However, downstream enterprises take advantage of the opportunity of price decline to delay procurement, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance in the spot market. The excessive focus of funds on short-term supply growth and weak demand has further strengthened bearish sentiment, leading to price declines that exceed the actual fundamentals. Panic selling has become an important force driving down prices.
According to the data analyst of Business Society’s lithium carbonate, multiple factors are resonating to cause a decline in lithium carbonate. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream demand will continue to be in the off-season, and the recovery of futures market sentiment will take time. Lithium carbonate prices still face certain downward pressure, but in the long run, the long-term growth certainty of the downstream new energy industry is strong, and the demand for lithium carbonate will steadily increase.