According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2650 yuan / ton on May 25, down 0.19% from the previous trading day and 1.03% year-on-year. On May 25, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rebounded after a weak decline. The main contract ma2209 closed at 2737 yuan / ton at the end of the trading day, up 11 yuan / ton compared with the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, the position of ma2209 contract was 949300 hands, an increase of 5400 hands compared with the previous trading day. The price of raw coal and oil price are strong, and the MTO of Tianjin Bohai Chemical downstream is expected to be put into operation. At present, the supply side is relatively abundant. Under the current situation, the game between supply and demand. Fan Tinglu, methanol analyst of business society, predicts that the domestic methanol market will be dominated by shock consolidation in the short term.
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Price rise and fall chart of methanol industry chain of business society:
Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of May 25:
Region, Price
Qinghai region, No quotation
Shanxi region ., 2480-2490 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange
Liaoning Province, 2740 yuan / ton to cash exchange
Fujian Province, RMB 2780-2820 yuan / ton, ex warehouse cash exchange nearby
Lianghu area ., Negotiation reference: 2850-2870 yuan / ton, delivered to cash exchange
Anhui region ., About 2780 yuan / ton
Henan region ., Factory reference 2630 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange
Comparison chart of price trend of coal / steam coal (upstream raw material) – methanol in shanghaishe:
Comparison chart of natural gas (upstream raw material) – methanol price trend of business community:
In terms of external market, as of the closing on May 24, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at US $408.50-409.5/ton. US Gulf methanol market closed at 97.50-98.00 cents / gallon, up 1 cent / gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 364.00-364.50 euros / ton, up 2 euros / ton.
region ., country., Closing price, Rise and fall
Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 408.50-409.5 USD / ton, USD 0 / ton
Europe and America, The Gulf of the United States, 97.50-98.00 cents / gallon ., 0 cents / gallon
Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 364.00-364.50 euros / ton, 2 euros / ton
According to the analysis of CITIC futures, the marginal supply and demand of methanol has weakened, the support at the valuation end is strong, and the core logic of methanol interval fluctuation (weekly view) is as follows:
The overall upstream shipment this week was general. The upstream inventory is low, the source of goods available for sale is limited, most of the main factories in Northwest China are loaded in limited quantities, the driving force of profit making shipment is not strong, the downstream receives goods at a lower price, and just needs to purchase. Under the negotiation stalemate, the overall transaction is light. The low price transaction in the port is good, the high price transaction is poor, and the basis is strong first and then weak.
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From the perspective of valuation, we believe that the near end valuation of methanol is low and there is support in the medium and long term. The price of coal from the near origin has risen to a high level, the price of coal from the northwest methanol plant has been close to 1100, and the price of coal from Henan, Shandong and other places has reached 1400-1500. Some enterprises have serious losses, the profit of downstream olefins is OK, and the valuation of methanol is low. In the medium and long term, the oil price may fluctuate at a high level, the peak of coal and electricity consumption is approaching, and the role of coal in supporting the bottom of methanol after double track is enhanced, which supports the valuation of methanol.
From the perspective of supply and demand drive, the maintenance capacity of more than 4 million tons of methanol in the northwest of the near end is concentrated and resumed production, the commencement of downstream MTO is reduced, and the supply and demand is weakened periodically. In the medium and long term, the supply is expected to increase with the return of maintenance units at home and abroad, the recovery of output and the new production; The domestic epidemic situation continues to improve, and there will be expectation of replenishment of traditional and energy demand or storage. However, the downstream of formaldehyde and other products will gradually enter the seasonal off-season, and the incremental space is limited. Therefore, under the double increase of supply and demand in the later stage, the elasticity of demand increase may be less than that of supply increase, and the expectation of supply and demand is loose. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the disturbance of coal price trend on methanol supply side and the production progress of Bohua MTO.
On the whole, the near end methanol overhaul capacity is concentrated and resumed production, the downstream MTO operation decreases, and the supply and demand weakens periodically. In terms of valuation, coal prices rose to a high level, some enterprises suffered serious losses, the downstream olefin profits were acceptable, the valuation of methanol was low, and the downward space of methanol was limited under the support of short-term costs. In the medium and long term, the trend of methanol will still be affected by energy prices and the epidemic. The high level of crude oil is expected to fluctuate, the peak of coal and electricity consumption is approaching, and the price constraint is weakened after the dual track operation of coal, which will enhance the bottom supporting effect on methanol and support the valuation end of methanol. From the perspective of supply and demand, under the double increase pattern of methanol supply and demand in the medium term, the elasticity of supply increase may be higher than that of demand increase. It is expected that the weakening of the margin of supply and demand may inhibit the space above methanol, but attention should be paid to the supply side under cost pressure and the production progress of Bohai Chemical MTO.
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