In the first week after the festival (2.7-11), the domestic liquid ammonia Market warmed up, the prices in Shandong and Hebei rose at the beginning of the week, and the market gradually stabilized from the middle of the week to the weekend. Prices rose in Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Henan and Northwest China. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of February 11, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 1.37%. At present, the mainstream quotation range of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4200-4400 yuan / ton.

On the supply side, the northern market mainly rose after the festival, which was mainly affected by the recovery of transportation after the festival and the dilution of the impact of the epidemic. During the Winter Olympics, the supply of Shandong, Hebei and other places tightened, affecting some output. At the same time, it also led to the recovery of prices in surrounding Anhui, Jiangsu and other regions. In addition, the shutdown of Fujian Wanhua plant also caused local supply tension and helped the ammonia price rise. The center of gravity of ammonia price in Northwest China has also moved upward. Qinghai Yuntianhua gas is limited, and the supply has been tightened; Superimposed on the recovery of traffic after snow in Ningxia, supporting the rise of ammonia price.

On the cost side, at present, the price of liquid ammonia is still supported by the cost side. The coal rebounded sharply before the festival. Although the market decreased after the festival, it is still running at a high level.

From the demand side, urea and compound fertilizer are better as a whole. According to the monitoring of business society, urea rose by 2.12% in the week after the festival. After the festival, the downstream inquiry increased, the inventory pressure of urea manufacturers was not large, and the price rose according to the trend. At present, the price is 2700 yuan / ton. The demand for agriculture is increasing, and the demand for industry is mainly rigid. With the advent of the fertilizer peak season in North China, dealers’ enthusiasm for taking goods has increased, and compound fertilizer plants have replenished goods one after another. The market price of melamine was adjusted at a low level, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation was weakened. The downstream plate factory just needs to purchase. From the perspective of supply: affected by the Winter Olympics, the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons, a slight decrease. On the whole, the cost of urea is generally supported, the downstream demand is good, the supply of urea is tight, and the future urea mainly rises slightly.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. At present, there are signs of further widening the price difference between urea and liquid ammonia, indicating that the market of liquid ammonia is still weaker than that of urea.

From the above figure, the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram shows that the current liquid ammonia industry chain continues to improve, and the price of natural gas upstream of the gas head is strong. However, the performance of coal head is weak, and the downstream shows a certain rigidity, with most rising products, especially melamine and ammonium chloride.

Future forecast: the business society believes that in the short term, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia is stable and partially tight. Many enterprises in Anhui, Shanxi, Jiangsu and other places have maintenance plans next week, and the supply is still good. The downstream urea market is still rising, which will further support the ammonia price. It is expected that liquid ammonia will still have some upward space in the near future.