Zinc price trend
According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the zinc price rose sharply in the short term after the festival. On the 18th and 19th, the zinc price rose by 1500 yuan / ton. After the surge, the zinc price returned to stable. The zinc price fluctuated and adjusted from the 20th to the 27th. On February 27th, the average price of zinc was 21746.67 yuan / ton, which was basically stable compared with the zinc price of 21750.00 yuan / ton on February 20th. The zinc market fluctuated and stabilized.
LME zinc price trend chart in February
According to the trend chart of LME zinc price in London, it can be seen that the overall LME zinc price rose sharply in February, which led to a sharp rise in domestic zinc price. However, since the end of February, the LME zinc price has fallen in shock, the rise of domestic zinc market has lost support, and the domestic zinc market has recovered from shock.
Trend of zinc concentrate processing fee
Name: Quotation (yuan / ton) median value (yuan / ton) rise and fall time
ZN50 imported zinc concentrate TC 290-330 310 0 2020 / 1 / 2
Pb50 domestic zinc concentrate TC 6100-6500 6300-2020 / 1 / 2
ZN50 Import Zinc Concentrate TC ﹥ 70-90 ﹥ 80 ﹥ 0 ﹥ 2020 / 12 / 1
ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC 4300-4500 4400 – 400 2020 / 12 / 1
ZN50 Import Zinc Concentrate TC ﹥ 70-90 ﹥ 80 ﹥ 0 ﹥ 2021 / 1 / 4
ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC 3900-4200-4050-350 2021 / 1 / 4
ZN50 Import Zinc Concentrate TC ﹥ 60-80 ﹥ 70 – 10 ﹥ 2021 / 2 / 1
ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC 3900-4200 4050 2021 / 2 / 1
It can be seen from the statistical table of zinc concentrate processing fee that the zinc concentrate processing fee will drop from 6300 yuan / ton to 4400 yuan / ton in 2020, and the zinc concentrate processing fee will drop sharply. From January to February in 2021, the zinc concentrate processing fee will continue to drop, but the downward trend will slow down, and the zinc concentrate processing fee will stabilize obviously. In February 2021, the mines will stop production and the supply of zinc ore will decrease. The domestic refined zinc output will decline seasonally in February. With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the mines will gradually resume mining in March, and the smelters will gradually resume work in the same period. After mining, the zinc concentrate products will still need a certain production and transportation cycle to enter the market. Therefore, the domestic zinc concentrate supply will continue to be tight until the middle of March. Domestic refined zinc production is expected to recover in March. The continuous recovery of zinc concentrate processing fees is not conducive to the growth of zinc concentrate production. The insufficient zinc concentrate production is a drag on the zinc ingot production. The reduction of zinc ingot production is obviously beneficial to the rise of zinc price, and the future zinc price has a greater driving force.
Zinc market demand forecast
With the end of the Spring Festival holiday and the improvement of terminal construction, the market is relatively optimistic about the recovery of consumption after the festival, and the demand of zinc market is expected to be expected. It is expected that zinc ingot inventory will enter the stage of rapid destocking in March. Demand is expected to rise, zinc City inventory decline, short supply market aggravation, future zinc ingot rising momentum.
Analysis summary and Prospect
Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business news agency, believes that: the continuous rise of zinc price in LME market in February has a greater supporting effect on the rise of domestic zinc market, but with the shock adjustment of zinc price in LME market, the domestic zinc price weakens with the support; the continuous decline of zinc concentrate processing fee drags down the growth of zinc ingot output, zinc ingot supply decreases, and the support for zinc price increases; with the end of the Spring Festival holiday and the improvement of terminal start-up, the domestic zinc price decreases The market is relatively optimistic about the recovery of zinc consumption after the festival, and the demand of zinc market is expected. It is expected that zinc ingot inventory will enter the stage of rapid destocking in March, and the supply of zinc market is slightly insufficient. Generally speaking, the demand of zinc market is expected to grow, but the improvement of supply is limited, the market of short supply is intensified, the zinc market is basically good, and the rising power of zinc price is increased. It is expected that the zinc price will rise in the future.