1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business community, on February 25, the domestic price of carbon black was 7500 yuan / ton, with a slight fluctuation. The price fluctuation range was 100-300 yuan / ton, and this month’s carbon black market was mainly volatile.
2、 Market analysis
Before the Spring Festival, most rubber products enterprises have limited stock before the festival. After the festival, new orders will be purchased, and the demand for carbon black will increase. In the short term, as the orders of carbon black enterprises are still sufficient and the market profit is high, the operating rate of carbon black market will continue to maintain a high level. After the majority of carbon black enterprises returned to the market during the Spring Festival holiday, 50% of the carbon black enterprises started higher than before the festival, and 46% of the carbon black enterprises basically recovered to the pre Festival level, and the carbon black market started at a high level.
As of February 18, the operating rate of carbon black sample enterprises was 74.76%, 6.81% higher than that of February 10. The recent rise of coal tar price has formed a certain support for the cost of carbon black, which is good for the price mentality of the industry, but the impact is limited; The downstream tire and rubber products enterprises have resumed work one after another, the rubber tube industry has high profits and tight goods, and the domestic demand for tires is improving. However, the tire manufacturers in Shandong’s main production areas are not quick to digest the carbon black before the festival, resulting in the phenomenon of carbon black truck unloading and detention. Although the recovery of tire enterprises is good,
Downstream auto sales continue to recover
Carbon black is an indispensable raw material for rubber industry. Because carbon black can improve the wear resistance of tire tread, greatly increase the mileage of tire, and also improve the tensile strength and tear strength of rubber compound, carbon black is widely used in manufacturing various types of tires and other rubber products. In the downstream of carbon black, the demand for tires accounted for 70%, other rubber products accounted for 25%, and non rubber products accounted for 5%.
Affected by the epidemic situation, in the first half of 2020, the sales volume of automobiles decreased significantly, the supply and demand of carbon black industry continued to deteriorate, and the domestic carbon black operating rate dropped to 45% in June. With the effective control of the epidemic situation in China, the operating rate of the carbon black industry has gradually increased, and has now returned to the level above that of the same period in 2019, driven by the improvement of downstream automobile demand and overseas single transfer.
Carbon black enters profit recovery period
In addition, from the profit changes of carbon black enterprises, the current market price of carbon black is higher than that of the same period last year, while the price of coal tar, an important raw material in the upstream, is lower than that of last year. Therefore, with the increase of the price difference between carbon black and coal tar, carbon black enterprises have entered the profit recovery period, and the performance can be released!
3、 Future forecast
In addition to the continuous recovery of the domestic automobile industry, the demand for tires is guaranteed, which strongly supports the demand for carbon black. Under the influence of the epidemic, the export orders of domestic tire factories are also large, and the demand for upstream carbon black continues to increase. At present, the supply and demand pattern of carbon black industry is gradually tightening. It is expected that the price of carbon black will be further raised!