1、 Price trend

This week, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose from 2143.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2176.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 1.56%, 29.56% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index at 101.24 on February 21.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Yangmei plain urea quoted 2200 yuan / ton this weekend, up 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2160 yuan / ton this weekend, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 2170 yuan / ton this weekend, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

On the demand side: the agricultural demand started gradually, the willingness of terminal procurement gradually increased, and the agricultural procurement in mainstream areas was cautious; the starting load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increased, and some downstream products were still cautious, most of them were market-oriented, and there was demand potential in the later industry. Supply side: on the supply side, at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 72.5%, and the daily output is about 159000 tons. The manufacturers have little pressure on shipping. With the gradual recovery of logistics and transportation, the inventory accumulated during the festival is also declining.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell greatly, from 3000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2900.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a decrease of 3.33%, 5.23% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia fell slightly this week, from 3316.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3300.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a decrease of 0.05% 50%, up 29.24% over the same period last year. This week, the price of melamine in the lower reaches of urea was temporarily stable, at 7200.00 yuan / ton, up 21.35% compared with the same period last year. Overall, urea cost support is weak this week.

3、 Future forecast

In late February, the urea market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand is gradually increasing, the industrial demand is better, the urea supply is increasing, the international urea price is rising, and the domestic urea market is expected to rise slightly in the short term.