Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market is weakening. As of October 12, the domestic market price of butadiene was 11673 yuan/ton. The price of butadiene rose 12.35% in the same period last month and 6.73% in the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: The domestic butadiene market continued to decline weakly, the prices of some manufacturers in the North weakened, the downstream wait-and-see situation remained unchanged, and some continued bearish expectations, dragging down the market. Shandong’s high-grade products are delivered to the price reference of 11100-11200 yuan/ton, while East China’s price is around 11500 yuan/ton. Market turnover is scarce, and real single negotiation is the main method.

Enterprises: Yangtze Petrochemical 220,000 tons/year plant, 3 # long-term parking; 1 # and 2 # total 120,000 tons/year plant normal operation. The 165,000 tons/year unit of Zhenhai Refinery and Chemical Company operates normally, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount for export. The 120,000 tons/year plant of Liaotong Chemical Company operates normally, and the trading range is 11,110-11,170 yuan/ton. Fushun Petrochemical 160,000 tons/year plant is in normal operation, and there is no export for the time being.

Market: Butadiene market inquiries in East China are limited. Businessmen pay more attention to the arrival of late shipments, and cautious market expectations lead to low downstream inquiry intention, which is sent to the price reference of about 11800 yuan/ton. Shandong butadiene market wait-and-see, downstream inquiry intention is limited, businessmen wait for next week node manufacturers price guidance, active offer intention is not high, high-grade goods to the price of temporary reference 11100-11200 yuan/ton, single discussion.

Industry chain: Downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, mainstream sales company prices, as expected, fell by 300 yuan per ton. After the decline of the supply price, the market quotations were adjusted accordingly. Due to the weak trend of raw material butadiene and the poor purchasing power of synthetic rubber at downstream terminals, some merchants had strong willingness to ship, and the market price was hanging upside down again. Short-term fluctuation of the trend of Tianguo made the suspension of the business of a large domestic enterprise still have an impact. The delivery of raw material butadiene was flat and there was no obvious positive factor to boost the domestic market. The price of butadiene-styrene is still weak, and the mainstream sales companies are still under pressure. We need to pay close attention to the adjustment of price policy and geopolitical factors. Styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) has a negative effect on the market of butadiene to a certain extent.
Cis-butadiene rubber: raw material butadiene price is weak finishing, but in terms of cis-butadiene cost pressure still exists. Shunding’s ex-factory price dropped 400 yuan/ton, the market price followed the decline, the market maintained wait-and-see, after the tentative decline, the business still had some upside-down offers, causing drag on the price; do not buy down mentality guidance, end-to-market caution, maintain the purchase price. The domestic cis-butadiene rubber market is weakening, and the actual trade is still under pressure. We need to pay attention to the information guidance of raw materials and market transaction. According to the trend comparison chart of butadiene and cis-butadiene rubber, the trend of butadiene and cis-butadiene rubber is the same, the trend of cis-butadiene rubber is declining, and the market of butadiene is likely to decline.

3. Future Market Forecast

The downstream industry is difficult to support the butadiene market due to the lower price of synthetic rubber. In addition, the supply side of domestic butadiene market is difficult to boost significantly. The downstream wait-and-see mentality leads to a continuing downturn in the trading atmosphere. The short-term butadiene market is difficult to stimulate by good news. Business analysts expect that the short-term domestic butadiene market will be weaker and the downward trend will be the main concern. Information and downstream product trend guidance.