Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, propylene (Shandong) declined rapidly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propylene (Shandong) was 8,175 yuan per ton. On Friday, the average price of propylene (Shandong) was 7,655 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 6.36%. Compared with the initial monthly price of 7669 yuan/ton, it fell by only 0.18%.

II. Analytical Review

Products: The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong started to rise in early July, after two rounds of increase of about 600 yuan/ton. Since the 13th day, the price has fallen to about 650 yuan/ton. At present, the market turnover has fallen to about 7600-7750 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price has fallen to 7600 yuan/ton, which has fallen back to the price at the beginning of July. This week, the supply of propylene in Shandong Province has loosened due to an increase in Northeast China’s supply and relatively low prices. At present, the inventory pressure of refineries is rising, and the enthusiasm of discharging warehouses is increasing, but the increase of market procurement is not large.

Industry chain: Upstream, international crude oil prices have fallen sharply this week, which has a significant negative impact on propylene. On the downstream side, the propylene oxide market also fell this week by nearly 3%, which had a bearish effect on propylene; this week, acrylic acid prices remained stable throughout the whole line, which had little impact on propylene; and this week, polypropylene futures were running at a low level, spot prices were slightly lower, or the market was dominated by weak finishing, which had no positive effect on propylene; this week, epichlorohydrin had no positive effect on propylene. The market continued to soar, the weekly increase is still as high as 5.4%, which has a significant positive impact on propylene; butyl octanol market slightly declined this week, which has a negative impact on propylene market.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from Business Society Chemical Branch believe that: in general, the recent downturn in international crude oil is obvious, the spot market of polypropylene is relatively flat, the prices of propylene oxide and butyl octanol have declined, the market of acrylic acid is flat, the market of epichlorohydrin is still rising, some refineries are reworked, the inventory pressure of refineries has increased, and purchasing is relatively high. The price of propylene is expected to decline in the near future.