Price Trend

The propane market continued to rise this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price of propane was 4 540 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week it was 4 575 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price increased by 0.77%, 11.88% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the propane Market in China rose steadily and the trading atmosphere was good. As of April 19, propane from Dongming Petrochemical Company of Shandong Province has not been quoted for the time being. The ex-factory price of propane in Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group is 4700 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 4600 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Company is 4650 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is 4620 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong Binzhou Dayou Group is 4520 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of propane in Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4500 yuan/ton, and that in Sinopec Qingdao Refinery and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4490 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market shocks and falls this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied petroleum gas market is 4,420 yuan/ton, and the average price of the weekend is 4,386.67 yuan/ton. Within the week, the decline is 0.75%, and the price is 12.35% higher than the same period last year. This week, the domestic propylene (East China) market continued to decline. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic propylene (Shandong) market price was 7231 yuan/ton, and the weekend average price was 6892 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price increased by 4.68%, which was 17.48% lower than the same period last year. Under the effect of OPEC production reduction this week, international crude oil continued to rise, boosting the liquefied petroleum gas market and propane Market mentality. This week, there are many delays in dock arrival, port imports are more tense, and prices continue to rise. Refineries have a slight advantage over wharf prices, and shipments are smoother. The expected rise of CPs in May also boosted the market. But at present, the price is at a relatively high level, the downstream mentality is conflicting, the enthusiasm for entering the market is general, more on-demand supplements.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 15th week of 2019 (4.15-4.19), there were 15 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which more than 5% of the commodities rose, accounting for 4.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (8.75%), cyclohexanone (5.90%) and TDI (5.35%). There are 31 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 5.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are epichlorohydrin (-7.69%), sulfur (-7.19%) and dichloromethane (-6.49%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.31%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propane analysts at business associations believe that the current high import costs support the market. However, prices continue to rise, some downstream conflicts, more on-demand replenishment. Factory inventory pressure, strong mentality. It is anticipated that the adjustment of future market highs will be the main one.