According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic methanol market did not perform well this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 2,388 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week it was 2,270 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 4.94%, 23.86% compared with the same period last year.
II. Market Analysis
Products: Domestic methanol overall performance is not good, the mainland market continued to decline. On the port market, with the decline of futures, it is reported that shipments arrived at port this week, and we need to be vigilant about stock accumulation. Mainland market continued to decline, downstream receipt intention is not high, environmental factors such as the impact of weak demand on the site, a partial decline of 20-60 yuan/ton. It is expected that the mainland market will be weak in the short run, while the ports will be mainly linked with futures, and attention should be paid to the changes of equipment in the main production areas.
Industry chain: formaldehyde: raw material methanol is weak finishing, under safety supervision, formaldehyde in the lower reaches of Shandong Province has partially recovered, but the overall start-up is still low, formaldehyde Market Trading appears weak and stable. Linyi is now around 1400 yuan / ton, Zibo and its surrounding areas are maintained at 1500 – 1550 yuan / ton. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market is stable and soft. The stock of local enterprises in North and East China is not high, so the offer remains firm. Henan individual enterprise warehouse pressure is high, and part of the forced warehouse price is low, so the central China market is soft. Enterprise warehouse in Northwest China is under high pressure, but it is still within the acceptable range, so the offer is temporarily stable. Dimethyl ether: Dimethyl ether market trend is stable, individual small rise, the market is generally buying. Demand turned to cold, manufacturers shipment blocked warehouse pressure gradually increased, it is expected that the short-term stability as the main part of the weak possibility.
3. Future Market Forecast
Business Cooperative Viewpoint: On the positive side, domestic methanol plant centralized overhaul, especially in Inner Mongolia is very limited in saleable goods; Inner Mongolia Jiutai MTO plant is expected to restart next week; Nanjing Chengzhi Phase II, Shandong Luxi Chemical New MTO plant is expected to be put into operation in May-June. On the negative side, in traditional downstream products, besides formaldehyde, which is low in supply and high in price, the profits of production enterprises are considerable, the other dimethyl ether, MTBE and other products are on the margin of profit and loss; Iranian Kawi, Marjan and other devices are still in operation, Iranian cargo is centralized shipment in early April, and is expected to arrive at the main port of China at the end of April and early May; some downstream terminal devices are scheduled to reach the main port of China from mid-April to May. Maintenance, such as acetic acid, MTBE and other products. Influenced by weak downstream demand and poor peripheral macro-environment, methanol producers are generally pessimistic. With the gradual recovery of methanol overhaul facilities in the Mainland and Iran’s centralized arrival next week, methanol analysts in business associations expect that methanol will not improve in the short term and the market will mainly decline.