Why cannot the price of china rare earths go up

China is one of the world’s important rare earth exporting countries, how about the status quo of rare earth exports in China? It was reported that 46,000 tonnes of rare-earth exports in the previous November had grown by nearly 10% compared with the same period last year.

 

In recent years, Chinese rare earths have accounted for more than 80% of global production. China is currently the world’s main production of rare earths, according to the Prospective Industry research Institute released the “2018-2023 China rare earth industry market forward-looking and investment strategic Planning analysis” data show that in 2016 China’s rare-earth ore production of 105,000 tons, accounting for 88.91% of global production. Since 2013, the price of rare earths has fallen to the bottom of history and has been low for a long time.

 

Globally, the new energy vehicles, high-power fans, inverter compressors and energy-saving motors, such as Low-carbon Industrial development prospects are better, and these industries to the largest downstream application of rare earth permanent magnets (i.e. NdFeB permanent magnet materials) have greater demand. 2018 demand is expected to reach 71,000 tons, accounting for close to 40%, at the same time a higher growth rate of about 6.3% composite growth; In addition, the new applications of polishing powder mainly used in the electronics industry benefited from the growth of the electronics sector, growth rate is faster, composite growth of 2.8%.

 

In mature applications, the catalyst is the most demanding field, according to the prospective database is expected 2018 demand for 23,700 tons, accounted for 13.3%, but slower growth, compound growth rate of about 1.3%; In addition, glass, ceramics and other mature applications to maintain a steady growth. Overall, the global demand for rare earths is expected to compound growth of 4.1%.
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Demand for rare earths in foreign markets is largely dependent on imports to China. According to the prospective database, China exported 4103 tonnes of rare earths in November 2017, an increase of 2.9% per cent year-on-year, and 46043 tonnes of rare-earth exports in January-November, up 10% from the same period last year. China’s exports of rare earths in November were 38.785 million U.S. dollars, an increase of 24.9% in January-November, and China’s exports of rare earths amounts to 377.47 million U.S. dollars, down 23.2% per cent year-on-year.

 

From the point of view of supply and demand balance, the global supply of rare earths has been in shortage in recent years. The shortage is expected to improve in the near future as demand for new energy vehicles grows. But because of the existence of China’s “black Rare-earth” industry, as well as the market accumulation of inventory impact, rare earths prices are still at the bottom.

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