The standing meeting of the State Council (hereinafter referred to as the “National Convention”) held on May 26 deployed to further support the rescue and development of small and micro enterprises and individual business households. The meeting pointed out that various measures should be taken to help small and micro enterprises and individual businesses cope with the impact of upstream raw material price rise. We will support large enterprises to build a supply-demand docking platform for the industrial chain of key industries, guide the upstream and downstream of the supply chain to stabilize the supply of raw materials and coordinate production and marketing, and ensure supply and price stability. We will crack down on hoarding and driving up prices.

It is worth noting that this is the third time in 14 days that the standing meeting of the State Council has focused on the rise of prices such as commodities and raw materials. With the increase of policy, the commodity market continues to cool down. According to the price monitoring of business agency, the commodity price index BPI as of May 30 is 1047, down 2.06% from 1069 (2021-05-13), the highest point in the period, and 58.64% higher than the lowest point 660 on February 3, 2016（ Note: the cycle refers to December 1, 2011 to present)

Commodity prices rose and fell (3%) in week 21, 2021 (5.24-5.28)

In the 21st week of 2021 (5.24-5.28), 96 commodities in the list of commodity prices rose and fell in the ring ratio, accounting for 43.64% of the total. The commodities that are concentrated in chemical industry (37 kinds) and steel (18 kinds in total), and the commodities with a decline of more than 5% mainly focus on the chemical industry; The top three commodities fell by melamine (-31.41%), bisphenol A (-17.81%), acetone (-11.45%). The average weekly rise and fall was -0.69 per cent.

The business community believes that commodity prices have risen too fast this year, which has a negative impact on economic expectations, and inflation has increasingly affected people’s production and life. Many measures have been taken by the state to control short-term speculation in a timely and effective manner, which helps to guide the rational expectations of the market, squeeze speculative bubbles away, and maintain the smooth operation of commodity prices. In this context, short-term commodities will enter the rational callback stage, and it will take a while.

Last week (5.25-28), the domestic liquid ammonia market continued to rise. According to the monitoring of the business community, the liquid ammonia market rose by 3.36% on a weekly basis. Last week, liquid ammonia manufacturers generally raised their prices, and they are adjusting their prices almost every day. Hebei and Shandong large factories have increased their prices by more than 200 yuan. With more maintenance devices, the market supply is tight, and the prices continue to rise. On Monday, some manufacturers in the north are still adjusting their prices, and the prices are still in the upward channel.

On the 31st, the price of liquid ammonia in Hebei continued to rise, and the current supply of goods in the region was in short supply. On the 31st, the quotation of large factories rose slightly, with an increase of 50-70 yuan / ton. The inventory pressure of manufacturers was acceptable, and the mainstream price in the region was 3850-4050 yuan / ton. At present, the liquid ammonia discharged by the manufacturer is moderate, and the overall inventory pressure in the region is not big. It is expected that the price will still have upward space in the near future.

At the beginning of the week, the overall atmosphere of the domestic liquid ammonia market was good. The price of liquid ammonia in Shandong continued to rise, and the inventory pressure in the region was acceptable. The price in Shandong increased at the end of last week. After rising for five consecutive days last week, the price rose again on Monday, with an increase of about 50 yuan / ton. The inventory pressure of manufacturers was general, and the mainstream price in the region was 4000-4150 yuan / ton. At present, there is less liquid ammonia discharged by the manufacturers in this area, and the overhauling of some devices aggravates the atmosphere of shortage in the market. The manufacturers frequently adjust the price to stimulate the market to follow up. It is expected that the price upward space in the near future is limited.

In the future, the domestic liquid ammonia manufacturers still have upward movement, but the upward trend is slightly slowing down. Some manufacturers began to stabilize their quotations last weekend, and the market upsurge has slightly stabilized. The recent upward space may not be large. However, due to the continuous strength of urea and the export boosted by printing standards, the price of liquid ammonia will not fall in the near future, and is expected to maintain a high range.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price trend of cryolite in Henan continued to be stable this week. The average price of cryolite in Henan was 6425 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was flat compared with that at the end of last week, with a month on month increase of 0.39%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic market of cryolite is temporarily stable, the regional manufacturers’ devices are running normally, and the external quotation is stable. As of the 28th, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 6000-6500 yuan / ton, and that in Henan is 6300-6800 yuan / ton, which is stable compared with last week. According to the plant operation of manufacturers in Henan Province, the 30000 T / a plant of Zhengzhou Tianrui grain Co., Ltd. started normally, and the whole plant load of Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Co., Ltd; The annual capacity of cryolite plant of Shandong Zibo Kunyu industry and Trade Co., Ltd. is 40000 tons. The plant is in normal operation, and there is no shutdown plan for the time being. Cryolite enterprises started smoothly, with sufficient inventory, general downstream demand and fair transaction. The actual price was mainly discussed through negotiation.

In terms of downstream electrolytic aluminum, the price trend fluctuated and went up this week, with an increase of 2.54%. The domestic aluminum social inventory was relatively low, the downstream demand side consumption was strong, and the aluminum social inventory continued to decline. With China’s aluminum industry speeding up the implementation of the carbon peak target, the terminal demand was expected to be better, the aluminum spot market went down obviously, and the aluminum market continued to go up in the later period.

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite market was weak and stable this week, and the average domestic production price remained at 2622.22 yuan / ton. At present, the mine and flotation unit in the fluorite yard started to work normally, and the supply of goods in the yard increased. However, the downstream delivery situation was general, and the demand for fluorite was lack of effective support.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the domestic manufacturers of cryolite have stable equipment start-up and sufficient market supply. The downstream aluminum industry has strong consumption, but the support for cryolite industry is not strong. Most of the enterprises hold a wait-and-see attitude and operate in a light and stable manner. It is expected that the cryolite market will continue to be stable in the later period, focusing on the downstream demand.

Price trend

Nylon price chart

According to the statistics of business news agency, as of May 28, the price of nylon filament DTY in Jiangsu was 19860 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton from the beginning of May; The price of nylon POY was 17400 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton from the beginning of May; The price of nylon FDY was 20000 yuan / ton, up 550 yuan / ton from the beginning of May. From the price trend point of view, the whole may, nylon price high shock first rose and then fell.

Upstream cost impact

Cyclohexanone price chart

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the price of upstream cyclohexanone was at a high level in May as a whole. It rose from the first ten days of May to the last ten days of May and fell to a high level in the middle of May. On May 14, the average market price of cyclohexanone was 11220 yuan / ton, up 13.10% month on month and 93.45% year on year. As of May 28, the average market price of cyclohexanone was 10640 yuan / ton, 580 yuan / ton lower than that in mid May. The upstream and downstream support was weak, the wait-and-see mood was high, the pressure of cyclohexanone was high, and the transaction center was frustrated. Business community cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will be weak in the short term.

PA6 price chart

Raw material PA6: in early May, the domestic PA6 market was active, and the spot price rose significantly. As of May 18, the mainstream offer price of sample enterprises for Zhongyou 2.75-2.85 was about 15666.67 yuan / ton, up 5.62% from the average price at the beginning of the month and 37.83% from the same period last year. On May 25, the domestic PA6 market fell, and the spot price dropped significantly. As of May 25, the mainstream offer price of sample enterprises for CNMC 2.75-2.85 was about 15166.67 yuan / ton, with a one-day drop of 2.15%, up 31.12% over the same period of last year. On May 25, the upstream caprolactam market of PA6 stagnated and turned to decline, and the recent cost side support guidance market of PA6 suffered a drastic reduction. Generally speaking, the current PA6 market is short, and the spot price is expected to continue to fall.

Market demand factors

According to a number of manufacturers, downstream demand for nylon is not high, most downstream enterprises maintain normal just need to take goods, mainly small orders, weak market transactions, basically in a situation of no market price, sufficient supply of goods on the floor, increased inventory, some manufacturers start to adjust, upstream and downstream parties have a cautious attitude towards the future market.

3、 Future forecast:

The terminal demand has not improved significantly, most downstream enterprises keep normal, just need to take goods, order support is limited; The upstream raw material cost is high, once the raw material cost support collapses, nylon filament is not immune. It is expected that the domestic nylon price will be high and weak, and the price will drop slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

According to the price chart of the business agency, as of Wednesday, May 26, 2021, the domestic reference price of acrylonitrile was 14340.00 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous working day price, which was 0.99% higher than that of last Wednesday, and 2.89% lower than that on April 26.

2、 Market analysis

Under the influence of many factors such as more bearish sentiment, cautious wait and see attitude of middlemen and downstream users before May 1st holiday, the reference price of the return acrylonitrile market after the festival continued to decline, falling to 13800 yuan / ton on May 11, the lowest price in the last two months. Then, the price rebounded and rose at the end of the stage, and the price rose to 14150 yuan / ton as of May 24, The price shows a stage V-type trend; During the period, most manufacturers and businesses adjusted the price in a small range, and the factory price of Jiangsu srbang fell about 300 yuan / ton on May 24, and Qilu Petrochemical factory price increased by about 200 yuan / ton. The current market mainstream quotation is about 14100-14150 yuan / ton. There is no significant change in market demand and supply, with stable overall performance and little fluctuation in market transactions.

upper reaches:

According to the price chart of the business agency, the price of propylene continued to stabilize in the first two days of May 1, up 50 yuan / ton from the 3rd to 7th, and the price remained stable since the 9th, with the mainstream price of about 8350 yuan / ton. In the past ten days, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has steadily declined and then recovered. On May 16, it was the high price of 10 days, 8371 yuan / ton, 8119 yuan / ton on May 25, 3.01% on the 10th day, and the low price of 10 days from May 21 to 23, 8035 yuan / ton, with a 10-day amplitude of 4.02%. At present, there is not much stock in propylene market, and some of the equipment maintenance is still not finished; The international crude oil market events have been constantly, and the price fluctuates. The crude oil price rose sharply on May 24, which has a more obvious positive effect on the propylene market.

Downstream:

This week, the domestic NBR fell slightly, and the factory price of Lanhua nitrile was stable. According to the monitoring of the business society, as of May 21, the factory output of Lanzhou Petrochemical NBR n41e was 17700 yuan / ton; At present, 3305e reported 18800 yuan / ton; At present, 3308e reported 19700 yuan / ton. India made a final anti-dumping decision on NBR in China this month, and the export market of NBR was slightly blocked, domestic demand still needs to be stable, and some merchants offered a small adjustment of the shipping talks. The relative pressure on supply side is not large, and the price in the early stage has fallen sharply, and it is expected that the NBR market will be stable in the later period.

In May, polyacrylamide was affected by the price change of raw materials. On the first day, the domestic (molecular weight 12 million, ionic degree 10-30) polyacrylamide cation price was 15433.33 yuan / ton, and on 25, it was reduced to 14800 yuan / T. this month, it has a trend of oscillation and downward trend, with a range of about 4.1%.

3、 Post market forecast:

Analysts of business society believe that the supply and demand side of acrylonitrile is still acceptable. With the attention of the executive meeting of the State Council on the issue of the rise of prices of commodities and raw materials and the increase of policy strength, the commodity prices will generally fall in the near future, while the prices of acrylonitrile will rise after falling. It is expected that the market will be slightly shaken in the later period, and the rising trend is not large, More attention is paid to the market information guidance for specific trends

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic PA6 market fell on May 25, and the spot price dropped significantly. As of May 25, the mainstream offer price of sample enterprises for CNMC 2.75-2.85 was about 15166.67 yuan / ton, with a one-day drop of 2.15%, up 31.12% over the same period of last year.

2、 The influencing factors were analyzed

In terms of upstream caprolactam, the domestic market is relatively strong in the near future. The spot price fell today after finishing sideways on the 24th. The price of caprolactam liquid of Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was reduced to 13200 yuan / T, with a capacity of 300000 tons and normal production of the plant. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid was reduced to 14400 yuan / ton, and the 450000 ton / year unit was started normally and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 14400 yuan / T. The 300000 t / a unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. In terms of raw material pure benzene, crude oil and external market fell in a wide range last week, while external news was bad for pure benzene, and the price fell continuously. The cost side support from raw material pure benzene gradually weakened, and caprolactam followed the upstream.

Raw material caprolactam market from up to down, PA6 cost side support reversed. Last month, PA6 spot market has continued to fall for more than a month, after the festival market rebound with caprolactam. Today, the upstream support is loose, and the main positive factors will be weakened in the short term. In addition, the recent downstream factory purchase operation is cautious, and the follow-up is slow. Trading on the floor was weak, and the actual trading momentum was poor. The profit situation of polymerization plant continued to be in the pattern of loss, the decline of engineering materials and chips was similar, and the inventory of the enterprise was on the rise.

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3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: on May 25, the upstream caprolactam market of PA6 stagnated and turned to decline, and the recent cost side support guidance market of PA6 suffered a drastic decline, with a large one-day decline. There is no large-scale demand in downstream factories, and the end-user mentality is not strong, so the operation is mainly cautious. Overall, the current PA6 market is short, and the spot price is expected to continue to fall.

Trade name: glass

Latest price May 25: 34.56 yuan / m2

Analysis points: on May 25, the glass spot market performed generally, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market slowed down. In North China Shahe, the number of manufacturers leaving the warehouse has weakened, the shipping price of traders is more flexible, and the focus of transaction has moved down. The overall trend of glass spot market in East China is general, with low inventory and strong price. The production and sales in Central China are fairly good, and the spot price of glass has slightly increased. The supply of goods in South China is relatively tight, the market confidence is good, and the spot price of glass continues to rise. Generally speaking, the low inventory of production enterprises has a certain supporting effect on the spot price. It is expected that the price of glass will be mainly consolidated in the short term.

Forecast: Glass spot market price consolidation in the short term.

On May 24, 2021, the price of metallic silicon (441) remained stable. According to the data of business news agency, on May 24, the average market price of domestic metallic silicon (441) was 13991.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the average market price of 1 on Friday, and increased by 7.49% compared with the average market price of 13016.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of may (5.1).

On the 24th, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 13300-13400 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 13700-13900 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 13800-13900 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 14600-14800 yuan / ton, and that in Tianjin port is 14000-14200 yuan / ton, The price range of silicon metal in Huangpu port is 14100-14200 yuan / ton.

In the early stage, the price of silicon metal has risen. At present, the price is close to the position on the eve of the correction, and the rise begins to show resistance.

Benefit factor

1. Social inventory continues to move down

It is reported that by the 21st, the social inventory of silicon metal in the three places had decreased by 14000 tons compared with the beginning of this month.

2. Yunnan power rationing

According to a pre notice of emergency peak shifting preparation issued by Yunnan power grid on May 10, at present, the main reservoirs in Yunnan are overdrawn seriously, the coal storage of thermal power continues to decline, the power generation is seriously less than expected, and there is a power shortage of about 700000 kilowatts at the peak of power consumption on that day. Emergency peak load shifting and power rationing are started for local and state power enterprises, and the peak load shifting and power rationing amount is 10-30%.

Due to the tense power supply situation in Yunnan, whether Yunnan metal silicon plant can resume production on schedule in wet season is still uncertain due to many factors such as rainfall and power distribution in the province. It is expected that large-scale production will resume in early June. In addition, there is a great possibility that Yunnan Province will postpone the commissioning of the built-in 40000 ton polysilicon project and the time to reach the production capacity.

3. The rise of polysilicon is fascinating

The downstream polysilicon has shown a strong performance in the near future, with a step up. Polysilicon manufacturers are mainly in stable operation. Two major polysilicon manufacturers in Xinjiang have their polysilicon equipment overhauled, and one company in Inner Mongolia has reduced its production load, which affected part of the output. As a result, the supply of polysilicon was relatively tight in May, but this week has not eased. In the case of material shortage sentiment continues to heat up, the price rises naturally, the price of single crystal rises more strongly, and the price of long-term orders is locked, but the price of loose orders is generally high, further pushing up the expectation of silicon material rise. The price of domestic products is generally close to the 100000 mark. The price of imported polysilicon continues to rise this week. The average transaction price is over US $23 / kg, and there are scattered offers to US $24 / kg.

On May 14, Longji offered 4.39 yuan per chip for G1 and 4.49 yuan per chip for M6. On May 20, after Longji’s price increase, Zhonghuan raised its price again. Among 170 thickness silicon chips, G1 (158.75mm) offered 4.7 yuan per chip, up 0.44 yuan or 10% from May 10; M6 (166mm) quoted 4.85 yuan / piece, up 0.405 yuan, or 9.1%. The price of silicon wafer has been rising repeatedly, which has also brought support to silicon materials.

Negative factors

After the surge of non-ferrous products, affected by the macro-control news, it gradually entered the callback stage. After the surge of aluminum ingots, the downstream aluminum alloy is under more pressure, and the price transmission is not smooth, so there is little chance of rapidly increasing the operating rate. At present, the raw materials of aluminum alloy plants are mostly purchased on demand, mainly just needed.

Future forecast

On the supply side, the output of silicon metal decreased slightly in April, and the social inventory of silicon metal showed a downward trend in early May.

Recently, the price of aluminum began to callback after the sharp rise, and the price of aluminum alloy in the lower reaches may fall down, which has the possibility of price reverse conduction under the environment; Fortunately, the price of polysilicon in the lower reaches has risen, and the silicon market is still supported by rising fundamentals.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of EPS ordinary material was 11450 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 11575 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a price increase of 1.09% and 50.08% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The trend of domestic EPS was slightly stronger, the styrene goods were tight, the spot price continued to be high, the EPS price increase was limited due to demand suppression, the gross profit space continued to shrink, some terminal factories were under started and the finished product inventory was large, the market transaction was just needed, and the overall transaction was insufficient.

As of May 20, Jiangsu’s common material was 11800 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton, or 1.72% on a month on month basis, and its fuel was 12300 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton, or 1.65% on a month on month basis. On the cost side, the downstream demand conflict is obvious, but the supply and demand side of pure benzene is relatively strong, and the delivery is approaching next week. It is expected that styrene will rise first and then decline next week.

3、 Future forecast

The turnover of EPS market continues to shrink, the merchants are cautious and wait-and-see, the circulation speed of goods is slow, and it is expected that the domestic EPS price will be in a stalemate in the short term.

On May 18, methanol in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange closed at 2690 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton or 1.47% from the previous day. The methanol spot market was mainly in the high position, with a slight decrease in some areas. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of May 18, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2730 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 14.23% and a year-on-year increase of 64.71%.

At present, the delivery situation of main production enterprises is different, some devices resume production, and local supply increases. At present, the crude oil is running strongly, some commodity futures are adjusted back, and the domestic methanol spot market is mainly adjusted.

Summary of methanol market prices by Region as of May 18

Region, price

Qinghai Area 2260-2330 yuan / ton ex factory cash

Shanxi area 2450-2500 yuan / ton factory cash

Liaoning Province 2530-2550 yuan / ton delivered to the factory

Fujian area 2790 yuan / ton, including tax

Two lakes area Ex factory reference 2750-2800 yuan / ton ex factory cash

Anhui Province 2780-2800 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan Province 2570 yuan / ton factory cash

On the downstream side, the formaldehyde market was stable and fell. Dimethyl ether market prices continue to push up. The decline of domestic acetic acid market continued. At present, the start-up of acetic acid industry is at a high level, and the inventory quantity of spot manufacturers is relatively sufficient, while the downstream factories still digest the contract, the new orders in the market are insufficient, the market trends are still negative, and the market transaction price is passively lower. MTBE market is mainly stable with limited fluctuation. Crude oil continued to go up, giving support to the market mentality. In addition, after the recent price drop to a low level, some downstream businesses took advantage of low prices to replenish. With the rise of other raw materials, the price gap between MTBE and alkylation and other raw materials narrowed, and the sales pressure of Northern businesses slightly reduced.

In the external market, as of May 17, the closing price of CFR China methanol was 317.50-318.50 US dollars / ton; CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closing price 370.00-371.00 USD / ton. US Gulf methanol closed at 110.50-111.50 cents per gallon; The closing price of methanol in FOB Rotterdam is 307.00-308.00 euro / ton.

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia CFR China 317.50-318.50 USD / T 0 USD / ton

Asia CFR Southeast Asia 370.00-371.00 USD / T 0 USD / ton

Europe and America Gulf of America 110.50-111.50 cents / gal 0 cents per gallon

Europe FOB Rotterdam 307.00-308.00 euro / ton 0 euro / ton

Methanol futures callback finishing, methanol spot market upward weak, short-term demand is difficult to have a big boost, business community methanol analysts predict that the short-term methanol market into a high finishing stage.