1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the price of mixed xylene continued to rise this week. On July 4, the price of mixed xylene was 5920 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (July 11) was 6000 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton or 1.35% compared with last week; It was up 63.04% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

The recent continuous rise of crude oil has driven the trend of mixed xylene to follow. However, the domestic demand for mixed xylene was insufficient and the growth was limited. In terms of external market, as of July 9, the price of imported mixed xylene from South Korea was 816.5 US dollars / ton, up 36 US dollars / ton, or 4.61%, from July 2; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $834 / T, up US $33 / T, or 4.12%, from July 2.

In terms of crude oil, the OPEC + meeting was cancelled at the beginning of the week, and there was no plan to further increase production for the time being, and international oil prices rose. However, the market is worried that the excessively fast rising oil price will trigger a price war again, and the crude oil market will cool down rapidly. On July 2, Brent fell 0.62 USD / barrel, or 0.81%; WTI fell 0.6 USD / barrel, or 0.8%.

Downstream, PX market, domestic PX prices remained stable this week, at 7100 yuan / ton, up 47.92% year on year. As of July 9, the closing price of Asian region is 917-919 USD / T FOB Korea and 935-937 USD / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, PTA in East China rose first and then fell this week. On Friday (July 9), the price was 5044.55 yuan / ton, down 0.84% from last week and up 39.85% from the same period last year.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox remained stable this week. On Friday (July 9), the price of ox in East China was 6200 yuan / ton, up 39.01% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Downstream demand remains rigid, and it is expected that the price of mixed xylene will follow the trend of crude oil in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, xylene plant maintenance trends, port inventory and downstream demand (gasoline market).