1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the market price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus fluctuated this month. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 36750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 36666.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price fluctuated and decreased within the month, with a range of 0.23%.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the price of yellow phosphorus mainly fluctuated, the overall rise and fall range was small, and the consolidation and operation was the main. The market trading situation is acceptable. Most yellow phosphorus enterprises operate at high prices. The downstream is more resistant to high price yellow phosphorus, and the purchase price is more depressed. On the whole, there are many enquiries, the transaction is general, the goods are prepared appropriately, the rigid demand is the main, and the price is relatively deadlocked. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 36000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Sichuan is about 37000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 37000 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, the domestic phosphate rock market this month showed high and stable operation after the overall rise at the beginning of the month. The price of phosphate ore in Guangxi is 790-30% of the reference price of phosphate ore in the region near April 26, and the reference price of phosphate ore in Guizhou is 790-30%. At present, the goods in the phosphate rock field are tight, the price is strong as a whole, and the market in the field continues to be high and strong. It is expected that in the short term, China’s domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to operate stably, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

In terms of coke, the coke market experienced two rounds of increase in April 2022, with a cumulative increase of 400 yuan / ton. As of the press release, the price of primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 3794 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 11.79%. In terms of coking enterprises, the current operating rate is higher than that of last month. After six rounds of increase, the profits of coking enterprises are better. Coking enterprises are actively shipping, the coke inventory in the plant has also decreased, and the shipping situation has been improved. In terms of downstream steel mills, the recent commencement of steel mills has remained stable, and the coke inventory in the plant is generally low. The steel mills have a strong willingness to purchase and actively replenish the inventory. Near the 51 small and long holiday, the steel mills have a demand for replenishment before the festival, and the short-term coke demand will continue to strengthen. However, at present, the profit of steel mills is declining, which has a certain impact on the purchasing enthusiasm. The disk of the superimposed futures market continues to weaken, and the overall market atmosphere is weak. It is expected that the coke market will be mainly stable before the festival, and the follow-up needs to focus on transportation and coke inventory in all links.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the price trend of phosphoric acid in April showed an upward trend, rising to above 10000 yuan, and the market focus shifted upward. After the Qingming holiday, the phosphoric acid market remained stable, but the price of raw yellow phosphorus fell, and the phosphoric acid Market weakened. Since the middle of the year, the price of raw yellow phosphorus has risen to about 38000, and the supply is tight, the cost of phosphoric acid enterprises is under pressure, the price trend is stable and upward, the supply of wet acid market is tight, and the price has also increased, but the market logistics is not smooth, the trading atmosphere is not high, and the increase of phosphoric acid in the month is limited. Near the end of the month, the price of raw materials decreased slightly, and the downstream replenishment was basically closed, and the price of phosphoric acid decreased obviously and secretly. By the end of the month, the price of raw materials was about 36000-37000 yuan / ton, and the market price of phosphoric acid was about 10300-11500 yuan / ton. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will remain stable and wait-and-see, or decline slightly.

3、 Future forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business agency believes that the yellow phosphorus price fluctuates this month, with little fluctuation up and down. The price of upstream phosphate rock increased and the coke market rose. Downstream phosphoric acid market price upward trend. The upstream and downstream support is strong, and the yellow phosphorus is expected to be in a stalemate in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of April 27, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol is 11333 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on April 1, 2022 (the ex factory reference price of propylene glycol is 14133 yuan / ton), the average price is reduced by 2800 yuan / ton, a decrease of 19.81%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that in April, the domestic propylene glycol market fell as a whole, with a large decline. At the beginning of the month, due to the impact of public health events, the logistics and transportation in many regions in China were limited, the circulation of raw materials was not smooth, the downstream start-up of propylene glycol was low, the downstream procurement pace of raw materials was slow, and the inventory pressure of propylene glycol factory was increasing. Therefore, from the 2nd day of the month, the domestic propylene glycol market began to run downward. As of April 15, the ex factory price of propylene glycol was reference 12533 yuan / ton, with a half month decrease of 11.32%.

In late April, the new single discharge volume of propylene glycol downstream was still limited. In addition, the propylene oxide Market at the raw material end was down, and the cost support was loose. From the 18th, the domestic propylene glycol market fell again, the supply and demand transmission in the field was deadlocked, the effective support of propylene glycol was insufficient, and the focus of trading continued to fall deeply. As of April 27, the ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol was around 11200-11500 yuan / ton, with a decline of nearly 20% in the month. At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the propylene glycol yard is still light, and the downstream goods are prepared carefully, focusing on actual order negotiation.

In the upstream propylene oxide Market, in April, the domestic propylene oxide market generally showed a downward trend. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the reference price of propylene oxide was 11666.67 yuan / ton as of April 26, down 3.05% compared with April 1 (12033.33 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, the demand of propylene glycol market is mainly rigid demand, and the inventory pressure of propylene glycol in the field has been relieved to some extent. The propylene glycol Data Engineer of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mostly stable, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the basic changes of supply and demand and the follow-up of new orders.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of April 26, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 9433 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on April 1 (the average reference price of n-butanol was 9566 yuan / ton), the price was reduced by 133 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.39%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that in April, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong showed a wide fluctuation trend of rise and fall. In early April, after the end of the Qingming Festival, the trading atmosphere of the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong was general, and the inventory of some n-butanol factories accumulated. Under the supply pressure, the factory reduced the ex factory price of n-butanol for three consecutive days on June, July and August, with a cumulative reduction range of 200-300 yuan / ton. On August 8, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was near 9300-9600 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the market was temporarily consolidated and put into operation. On the 11th, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong province welcomed a short upward movement, the low-end price transaction atmosphere improved, and the confidence of operators was slightly boosted. Some factories slightly increased the ex factory price of n-butanol by about 100 yuan / ton. However, due to the logistics restrictions in some domestic regions, the support of downstream demand was significantly loose. On the 14th and 15th, some factories in Shandong reduced the ex factory price of n-butanol, The reduction range is 200 yuan / ton. As of April 15, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong is around 9200-9400 yuan / ton, and the overall decline of the market during the week is 0.36%.

In late April, from the 18th, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong ushered in a continuous upward movement. The trading atmosphere of n-butanol improved, and the downstream ushered in phased goods preparation. The low-end price transaction was good. N-butanol factories in Shandong generally raised the ex factory price of n-butanol. By the 23rd, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 9700-9800 yuan / ton, with a cumulative increase of 4.68% on the 6th. Due to the influence of logistics factors near the holiday, some downstream units started to operate at low load and the raw material preparation was also slow. From the 24th, some n-butanol factories started to sell goods at a profit, and the ex factory price of n-butanol was reduced by about 200 yuan / ton. The center of gravity of n-butanol began to decline as a whole. As of the 26th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 9300-9400 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.78% in three days. At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-butanol field is still general, and the downstream demand is mostly on the sidelines.

In terms of upstream propylene, recently, the domestic propylene market in Shandong has been running downward as a whole. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference price of propylene was 8386.60 yuan / ton on April 25, up 2.27% compared with April 1 (8200.80 yuan / ton).

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, due to the limited factors of logistics and transportation, the overall supply and demand circulation of n-butanol in the field is still slow, and the downstream users are cautious about the spot purchase of raw materials. The n-butanol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong is mostly weak, and the consolidation operation is the main. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes of supply and demand.

According to the monitoring sample data of business society, as of April 25, the average price of melamine enterprises was 10166.67 yuan / ton, down 1.29% from last Wednesday (April 20), 17.57% from March 25, and 2.56% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently, the market price of melamine has stopped falling and returned to rise. Recently, the price of raw material urea is relatively strong, the cost pressure is obvious, the operating rate of melamine is slightly increased, the downstream goods are prepared before the festival, the purchasing enthusiasm is enhanced, the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is relieved, and the price stops falling and rises again.

For upstream urea, the comprehensive domestic urea price rose slightly on April 25, up 23 yuan / ton compared with April 22, up 37.72% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the cost of urea is generally supported, the downstream demand is normal, the urea supply is high, the transportation is limited, and the future urea mainly fluctuates and rises in a narrow range.

Melamine analysts of business society believe that at present, the upstream urea price has increased slightly, the cost support is strong, the enterprises mainly implement advance orders, and the actual performance of the demand side is still general. It is expected that the melamine market may be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market fell from 14600.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 14533.33 yuan / ton this weekend, down 0.46%. On April 23, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 73.77, unchanged from yesterday, down 30.13% from the highest point of 105.58 in the cycle (2021-09-16), and up 107.63% from the lowest point of 35.53 on December 11, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell slightly this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 14300 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde’s ex factory quotation this weekend is 14800 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 14500 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 8441.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 8421.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 0.24%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of downstream industrial chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol is adjusted at a low level, and the quotation is 17533.33 yuan / ton. The market of neopentyl glycol was consolidated at a low level and the downstream demand was weakened, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late April may decline slightly. The upstream propylene market fell slightly and the cost support weakened. The downstream neopentyl glycol market was adjusted at a low level, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weakened. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market, the isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline slightly.

This week, metal silicon gradually showed signs of stopping falling and stabilizing, and the overall market fell weakly. As of April 15, according to the price monitoring of business society, the average price of domestic metal silicon market was 20920 yuan / ton, down 510 yuan / ton, down 2.38%.

The price of 441# silicon in each region on the 15th is as follows:

The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Huangpu port area is 20800-21000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 20900 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Tianjin port area is 20800-21100 yuan / ton, with an average price of 20950 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 20500-20700 yuan / ton, with an average of 20600 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Sichuan is 20500-20600 yuan / ton, with an average of 20550 yuan / ton; The price range of Shanghai #441 metal silicon is 21500-21700 yuan / ton, with an average price of 21600 yuan / ton.

Demand side

The metal silicon market as a whole is weak. Recently, large downstream factories have been fully prepared for bidding and procurement, and the demand in April has made the metal silicon market gradually active. The trading volume has increased significantly, and the transaction price has basically stopped falling. There have also been situations in which the quotation of some factories remains stable and it is difficult for buyers to keep the price down. At the same time, the special situation of the current epidemic, poor logistics, especially in East China, leads to difficult order delivery and general market transactions.

Downstream aspect

Many downstream silicone and aluminum alloy enterprises shut down maintenance. Under the impact of the epidemic, the operating rate of primary and recycled aluminum alloy decreased again this week. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises this week was still 67%, down by two percentage points; The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 47.2%.

After a short rise, the silicone market fell. The market quotation of mainstream DMC monomer factory was 27000-28800 yuan / ton. Except that the price fluctuated greatly in Shandong, the quotation in other regions was relatively stable. Affected by factors such as logistics and transportation, the trading atmosphere in the venue was still light.

Polysilicon prices rose slightly, and the supply side remained tight. At present, most of the devices of 12 domestic silicon material manufacturers started normally, but some silicon material manufacturers still took maintenance actions in April and may.

Future forecast

On the whole, silicon factories are in a dilemma. On the one hand, raw material prices are rising and production costs are rising, resulting in repeated compression of profit space. Some silicon factories resist downstream price reduction due to cost reasons; On the other hand, the downstream demand and overseas export situation are always not optimistic. After the silicon price stabilized this week, most of the rigid demand was released, and the buyers’ wait-and-see mood is still strong. Business analysts believe that the market lacks good news, and the price of metal silicon is weak and stable in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market fell weakly in mid April, and the spot prices of various brands continued to decline. As of April 18, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 27750 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 10.48% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the price of adipic acid in China continued to decline, and the weekly decline of adipic acid in East China was 0.97%. On the one hand, the prices of upstream pure benzene and cyclohexanone fell. In addition, the supply increased compared with the previous period, while the terminal demand was still cautious and the transaction was not ideal, resulting in the continuous weak downward trend of adipic acid. The domestic supply of adiponitrile is abundant, the level of port arrival is general, and the overall support effect on PA66 spot is limited.

The price of adipic acid, the upstream raw material, fell, the market supply of adiponitrile improved, and the cost side support of PA66 was general. At present, there are limited changes in the operating rate of the industry. The load level of domestic PA66 enterprises is basically in dynamic balance, with a high horizontal plate. There is a lot of spot supply on the site, which has a certain suppression on the profits of PA66 enterprises. In terms of port, the inventory position is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises take goods to follow up, prefer to just need to maintain production, and have strong resistance to high price goods. In addition, at present, the impact of domestic health events still exists, and the logistics in many places are affected to varying degrees. The demand of some downstream factories in China is shrinking, and the shipment resistance of merchants is large. On site transactions declined, the seller’s mentality was poor, and the operation continued to reduce prices and take orders.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 continued to decline in mid April. The market of adiponitrile on the raw material side was weak, the market of adipic acid also fell, and the cost side support of PA66 was poor. The supply of PA66 is sufficient, and there is inventory pressure on enterprises and midstream. The demand side has a deep resistance to high price supply, and the market trading continues to be sluggish. It is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak market in the short term.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (April 19): 10300.00 yuan / ton

On April 19, the melamine market was mainly stable, flat compared with the previous trading day, and 14.17% lower than the price on March 19. Recently, the upstream urea price is relatively strong, the cost pressure is large, and the maintenance expectation of some units has a certain support for the market mentality, but the downstream demand is still light and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be sorted out and operated stably.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 was generally stable in mid April, and the spot prices of various brands increased by a narrow margin. As of April 18, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 of the sample enterprises was about 15766.67 yuan / ton, up or down 0% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: upstream, the price of caprolactam rose last week. Crude oil rebounded and rose sharply after falling, the center of gravity of raw material pure benzene rose slightly, and the cost of caprolactam was well supported. Recently, the supply of some caprolactam enterprises has decreased due to plant maintenance or planned maintenance. It is expected that the caprolactam market will run better in the short term.

The price of caprolactam in the upstream increased, and the cost side support of PA6 increased. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant was generally stable at more than 70%, rising narrowly last week. In terms of news, the international crude oil price fluctuation caused by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, but recently, due to market differences and other factors, the support and transmission effect on the cost side of PA6 has weakened. The supply side of PA6 continues the previous abundant pattern, the demand of downstream enterprises is weak, and the on-site trading is general. I heard that the operating rate of downstream enterprises is general and the willingness to prepare goods is not strong. In addition, the logistics obstruction in many places caused by health events has not ended, and some factories have reduced the production proportion of PA6 products, resulting in weak demand for PA6 and empty market.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA6 rose narrowly in mid April, the trend of caprolactam rose steadily as a whole, and the cost support of PA6 was acceptable. Downstream enterprises tend to take goods on bargain hunting and just need to take goods to maintain production. It is expected that PA6 market trend may be dominated by narrow consolidation and operation in the short term.

This week (April 11-15), the domestic liquid ammonia Market stabilized after rising. The transaction focus in northern regions such as Shandong, Hebei and Shanxi has generally risen, which is mainly affected by the reduction of supply in the region and the failure of some devices. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of April 15, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 0.67%. At present, the mainstream quotation range of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4800-4900 yuan / ton.

Supply side

On the supply side, this week, the overall ammonia release in many domestic places was mainly flat compared with the previous week, with a partial decline. At present, it is still strong in the South and weak in the north. In particular, there are too many unit maintenance in the south, and the reduction of supply has led to the price of liquid ammonia remaining above the 5000 yuan mark this week. Affected by public health events in northern regions such as Shandong, the shipment is not smooth, but it is also accompanied by plant shutdown and maintenance, and the supply pressure is small. However, the plant is restarted in the middle of the week, and the supply pressure may gradually form in the later stage.

Cost side

The upstream coal market is affected by the regulation policy, and the price maintains the previous level. At present, the profits of downstream methanol and liquid ammonia manufacturers are generally boosted. With the fall of natural gas price, the cost pressure of gas head enterprises has been relieved. According to the monitoring of business agency, LNG fell by 5.71% this week.

Demand side

In the end, the downstream of liquid ammonia still maintained a moderate growth trend, the price of urea stabilized after falling, and the rebound trend of ammonium nitrate, ammonium chloride and other products continued last week. On the whole, the downstream agricultural demand is still strong, and the industrial demand is normal. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season, and dealers take goods actively. However, affected by the epidemic, urea shipment is blocked and freight rates rise sharply. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant, plate plant and melamine plant is high, and the bargain hunting is followed up appropriately.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same, and the curve crosses in April. It is mainly due to the impact of the high decline of urea price, and the strong price of liquid ammonia also brings some cost pressure to the downstream. However, at present, the price difference between the two has narrowed and maintained a reasonable level.

From the above figure and the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, at present, the profits of the liquid ammonia industry chain continue to improve, the natural gas price in the upstream of the gas head falls, the coal price is affected by the policy, and the price remains weak, which is conducive to alleviating the downstream cost pressure. The middle and lower reaches recovered, the enterprise profit increased, and the profit of liquid ammonia increased significantly compared with the previous period. The downstream areas have also improved significantly, with formic acid, ammonium chloride and ammonium nitrate rising to varying degrees.

Future forecast

According to the business society, at present, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia has maintained a basic balance, and the differentiation trend of local supply and demand. The current situation of supply shortage in the South has eased compared with last week. The resumption of plant production in the North has also brought loose expectations to the market. Some manufacturers have reduced the ex factory price at the weekend, and the possibility of continued price loosening in the later stage cannot be ruled out. The demand side is dominated by rigid demand, so it is difficult to see too much in the later price. In addition, public health events are still fermenting, which will still bring some pressure on transportation in the later stage. Generally speaking, under the condition of basically balanced supply and demand, the ammonia market may still maintain a high consolidation pattern in the near future.