In April, the domestic propane market continued to decline, with a broad decline. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the average market price of propane in Shandong on April 1st was 5383 yuan/ton, and on April 26th it was 5088 yuan/ton. The monthly decline was 5.48%, a decrease of 21.43% compared to the same period last year.

As of April 27th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ April 27th

South China region/ 5050-5100 yuan/ton

North China region/ 5050-5200 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5050-5100 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 5050-5250 yuan/ton

In April, the propane market remained weak and demand dragged on, continuing to decline. In early April of this month, the CP introduced a sharp drop, resulting in lower import prices and considerable profits for port traders. Crude oil prices have skyrocketed, with limited news support, weak demand, and low demand for combustion. The demand side is constrained, and the propane market is weak and declining. In the middle of the month, the propane market experienced a rebound, with downstream bargains entering the market and periodic restocking, pushing propane up. However, as prices rose to high levels, downstream purchasing enthusiasm decreased, and propane prices stabilized. As the end of the month approaches the holiday, downstream inventory demand and propane prices begin to strengthen.

Saudi Aramco’s CP was introduced in April, and the contract prices for propane and butane were significantly reduced, with propane at $555 per ton, a decrease of $165 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane is $545 per ton, a decrease of $195 per ton compared to last month.

Overall, with the May Day holiday approaching and downstream pre holiday stocking operations, demand is expected to increase, and it is expected to enter the short-term market in May. The Shandong propane market is slightly upward, but overall demand is still weak and difficult to improve, with a long-term bearish outlook.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic 1 # tin ingot market fell first and then rose in April 2023. The average price in the domestic market was 208110 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 207060 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decrease of 0.5%.

On April 25th, the base metal index was 1228 points, a decrease of 7 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.01% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 91.28% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

On April 25th, the tin commodity index was 108.03, a decrease of 0.81 points from yesterday, a decrease of 42.45% from the cycle’s highest point of 187.70 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 152.05% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 9th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that tin prices have been mainly declining in the past six months, with significant declines occurring in May at -18.54% and June at -22.32%. After entering November, prices have been the main trend, with monthly increases exceeding 10%. After entering February, the market fell, with a monthly decline of 11.35%. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the recent rise in tin prices has been more or less negative.

In April 2023, the tin market fluctuated and declined in the first half of the month, while experienced significant fluctuations in the second half. In the first half of the month, the overall performance of the tin market was weak, and under the dual weak supply and demand pattern, downstream demand remained weak. Without actual demand support, it is expected that the tin market will maintain a weak overall operation. In the short term, the impact of domestic tin prices is still limited, and tin price fluctuations mainly follow international macro trends. Starting from April 15th, under the influence of a sudden news, tin prices rose first and then fell in the second half of the month, experiencing significant fluctuations. On April 15, the Central economic planning Committee of the Wa State of Myanmar issued the Notice on Suspension of All Mineral Resources Exploitation, which pointed out that in order to protect the Wa mineral resources, the mining and excavation of all mineral resources would be suspended until the conditions for mature mining were not met. Myanmar, as the largest importer of China, accounts for about 50% of the tin concentrate production in the Wa region mentioned in the notice. If tin mines in the Myanmar region stop production after August 1st, it will have a significant impact on domestic tin supply. Under the influence of this news, domestic Shanghai tin rose by the limit on the day of the 17th, and rose by another 6.93% on the night of the 17th. After the news of Wa State was digested by the market around the 18th, it was difficult for Shanghai Tin to have support, and prices continued to decline, falling continuously.

On the supply side: Currently, there is not much change in the overall domestic supply and demand, and the attitude of smelters towards high prices remains unchanged. The operating rate remains at a relatively stable level of around 60%. However, based on the import data of tin concentrate, in March 2023, the physical import volume of tin concentrate in China was 21927 tons, with a metal conversion volume of 5879.5 tons, an increase of 29.9% compared to the previous month. However, due to the end of dumping in Myanmar this year, the year-on-year data has decreased significantly, reaching 33.5%, indicating that the supply at the mining end is still tight. In terms of demand, it remains weak and shows little signs of recovery in the short term. Currently, the main application field of tin in China is the electronics industry. In the downstream consumption structure of refined tin metal, soldering tin accounts for about 44% of the market share, while tin plates account for about 16% of the market share. Therefore, the development of the electronics industry, including the new energy industry, has a significant impact on tin. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of integrated circuits from January to February 2023 was 44.3 billion pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 17%. According to Business News, due to the poor performance of electronic orders in the near future, the operating rate of solder companies has remained stable in the near future, and it is expected that there will be no significant changes in the future. In terms of inventory, LME inventory is currently at a low level, while domestic inventory is still relatively high. Overall, downstream demand is still weak, and the impact of domestic supply and demand on tin prices is still limited in the short term. In the future, it is still necessary to focus on the impact of domestic and foreign macro factors on the market.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the cumulative import volume of tin ore sand and its concentrate in China in March 2023 was 21927 tons (equivalent to 6766.8 metal tons), a year-on-year decrease of 24.35% and a month on month increase of 27.67%. Among them, the import volume from Myanmar in March was 16787 tons (equivalent to 4196.6 metal tons), a year-on-year decrease of 22.22% and a month on month increase of 25.94%; Except for Myanmar, the total import volume from other countries in March was 5140 tons (equivalent to 2570.2 metal tons), a year-on-year decrease of 30.58% and a month on month increase of 33.68%.

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in February 2023, global refined tin production was 28800 tons, consumption was 24900 tons, and supply surplus was 3900 tons. The global tin ore production in February 2023 was 24300 tons.

On April 15, the Central economic planning Committee of the Wa State of Myanmar issued the Notice on Suspension of All Mineral Resources Exploitation, which pointed out that in order to protect the Wa mineral resources, the mining and excavation of all mineral resources would be suspended until the conditions for mature mining were not met. After August 1, 2023, all exploration, mining, processing and other operations in the mine will cease. Myanmar is the first source country for China’s tin ore imports. According to customs data, in 2022, China imported 187300 tons of tin ore from Myanmar, accounting for approximately 77% of China’s total imports. The tin concentrate production in the Wa region accounts for about 50% of the total production in Myanmar. If the tin mines in Myanmar stop production after August 1st, it will have a significant impact on the domestic tin supply.

Domestic cobalt prices have stopped rising and falling this week

According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of April 21, cobalt prices were 271600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% compared to April 14, when cobalt prices were 272400 yuan/ton; The cobalt price decreased by 1.77% compared to 276500 yuan/ton on April 19th; The cobalt price decreased by 6.57% compared to 290700 yuan/ton on April 1st. International cobalt prices have plummeted, with cobalt prices briefly rising this week and then falling back.

International cobalt prices plummet

From the trend chart of MB cobalt price, it can be seen that MB cobalt price has significantly decreased this week, and international cobalt prices have stopped rising and falling, which is negative for the domestic cobalt market. Domestic cobalt prices have stopped rising and falling.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the international cobalt price has stopped rising and plummeted this week, causing a bearish situation in the international cobalt market. The supply and demand of the cobalt market are relatively balanced, and the downward pressure on the domestic cobalt market has increased. This week, the cobalt price has stopped rising and falling. In the future, the supply and demand of cobalt in the market are relatively balanced, and there are still bearish trends in the cobalt market. It is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate slightly in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 24th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3875.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as last Thursday (April 20th).

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been operating steadily. In the near future, the raw material sulfuric acid market is weak, and the raw material methanol market is strong. The change in cost has little impact. The downstream supply is mainly on demand before the festival. The market negotiation atmosphere is mild, the transaction is orderly, and the price center of formic acid market is stable.

Upstream product: Upstream sulfuric acid. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for sulfuric acid on April 21 was 235.00, a decrease of 2.08% compared to April 1 (240.00); Upstream methanol, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on April 21, the reference price for methanol was 2570.00, an increase of 0.33% compared to April 1 (2561.67).

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that at present, raw material prices are fluctuating, and the cost side impact is limited. Downstream goods are prepared in an orderly manner according to demand before holidays, and the market atmosphere is still acceptable. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may operate at a high level in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business agency, the price of 1 # electrolytic manganese market rose slightly this week (from April 14 to April 21), and the market atmosphere was still weak. The spot market price in East China was 16300 yuan/ton last weekend and 16325 yuan/ton this weekend, up 0.15%.

Manganese ore: This week, the manganese ore market continued to be depressed. Enquiries and transactions on the market improved slightly, but most of them were sporadic transactions. The transaction price did not perform well, and the price continued to decline. The lower price of the downstream silicon manganese market led to the pressure operation of the raw material end market. The manufacturers’ weak acceptance of high prices led to the gradual bottoming of the transaction price. As of April 21, Tianjin Port has experienced a decrease of 0.5 to 1 yuan/ton, with mainstream transactions of semi carbonate at 32.5 yuan/ton, around 38 yuan/ton in Gabon, 42 to 43 yuan/ton in Australia, and a certain degree of decline in South African high-speed rail. The mainstream prices of Mn28-30 grade are concentrated at 31 yuan/ton, while those of Mn33 and above are at 32.5 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above, it can be seen that prices have slightly decreased since December 2022, and have continued to decline after temporarily stabilizing in January. As of now, electrolytic manganese has been declining for four consecutive months, and has slightly rebounded this week.

The actual transaction volume in the electrolytic manganese market this week is still weak, and the overall market is still operating in a weak trend. Prices in some regions have slightly increased, but the mainstream market remains at 14700-14900 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from last week. This week, the market is bullish, with some prices slightly increasing, but the impact on the market is limited. Downstream demand is generally low, and the game mentality between supply and demand is strong. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. This week, the performance of steel bidding was relatively stable, and with the resumption of bidding by POSCO in South Korea, it has boosted the mentality of the domestic market to some extent. Recently, there has been a slight upward trend in prices among smelters, and the bearish atmosphere in the market has gradually decreased. However, actual transactions are still limited, and there are no obvious signs of improvement in trading. The market is relatively quiet, with FOB prices ranging from $2100 to $2140 per ton, which is unchanged from last week. In the future, it is expected that the weak and stable operation will be the main focus, and more guidance on steel bidding prices will be awaited.

This week, the silicon manganese market experienced a narrow range of volatility, with lower prices at the beginning of the week and a recovery with futures rebounding in the middle of the week. Spot prices showed a slight increase, but the upward momentum was insufficient. Over the weekend, prices fell back. The bidding for steel mills is coming to an end, and the market trading atmosphere is gradually turning to a light one. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (with the specification of FeMN68Si18) was around 6900-7050 yuan/ton on April 21, with an average market price of 6975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the beginning of the week.

Related data:

According to customs data, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) in March 2023 was approximately 33451 tons. In March 2023, the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) was approximately 5500 tons.

The National Development and Reform Commission organized a meeting to promote clean production in the electrolytic manganese industry

According to the National Development and Reform Commission, in order to improve the level of green and clean production in the electrolytic manganese industry, the Environmental Resources Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a meeting on promoting clean production in the electrolytic manganese industry on the afternoon of April 21, to sort out the current situation and existing problems of clean production in the electrolytic manganese industry, and to study and promote the next steps of work. Representatives from the Solid State Department of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, relevant research institutions, and industry associations attended the meeting.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has been fluctuating and declining recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8600.00 yuan/ton, while on weekends, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8483.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36%. The price has decreased by 11.17% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the styrene market price has continued to decline. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent price of styrene has mainly fluctuated slightly, and the price has continued to decline this week. The supply of styrene has continued to rise, inventory has risen, international crude oil prices are fluctuating and unstable, pure benzene market is not volatile, cost support is poor, and spot demand for styrene is poor, leading to a decline in the market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On April 10th, the price of pure benzene was between 7403-7600 yuan/ton (average price of 7501 yuan/ton). On Friday (April 14th), the price of pure benzene was between 7403-7750 yuan/ton (average price of 7576 yuan/ton), an increase of 0.67% compared to last week and a decrease of 9.59% compared to the same period last year. The port continues to go to the warehouse, and downstream demand for raw materials is relatively stable, supporting price increases. The inventory of Shandong Refinery is low, and the quoted price is high, causing the focus of transaction to shift upwards.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream markets of styrene have seen varying fluctuations. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS was 9516 yuan/ton, while on weekends, the average price of PS was 9566 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.53% and a decrease of 9.89% compared to the same period last year. Market inquiries have increased, but actual transactions are average. The market urgently needs good news support, with a focus on downstream transactions. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is between 8850 and 10400 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is between 9250 and 10700 yuan/ton.

The average price of EPS ordinary materials this week is 9640 yuan/ton, and the market is stable. The supply of goods in the yard is still relatively loose, and the downstream production consumption inventory is dominated. The market price reference of EPS common materials in South China is about 9600-9700 yuan/ton (tax included).

Recently, the domestic ABS market has remained stable, with an average price of 11600.00 yuan/ton on April 17th. Recently, the overall trend of ABS upstream three materials has been weak, which has weakened the support for ABS cost side. The high starting point of petrochemical plants has increased, and the market supply continues to be abundant. Poor demand side support, overall maintaining a weak and rigid demand pattern. Stacked with high inventory of midstream channel merchants, merchants’ mentality has weakened, and pricing operations are cautious. It is expected that in the short term, the ABS market may continue to be weak due to the impact of supply and demand contradictions.

The recent crude oil market has room for volatility and upward momentum, with good support for styrene. The supply of styrene has slowed down, and it is expected that the short-term volatility and upward trend in the styrene market will be the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 14th, the average price for acrylic acid in the East China region was 6775.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to Monday’s price.

The acrylic acid market has been operating steadily this week. Recently, the market price of raw propylene has risen, the cost support has been strengthened, the overhaul of some factories at the supply end has been completed, the industry operation rate has increased, the downstream procurement is mainly just in demand, the market transaction atmosphere is general, and the focus of acrylic acid negotiation is stable.

Upstream propylene, according to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the support for the Shandong propylene market has become stronger recently, and the price has continued to rise slightly. On the 14th, the mainstream quotation in the Shandong market was 7200-7300 yuan/ton.

Acrylic acid analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost support has increased, operating rates have increased, market transactions are on demand, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will continue to consolidate and operate in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to bulk data monitoring by Business Society, the spot price of styrene in Shandong fell first and then rose in March. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8558.33 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8458.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17%. The price has decreased by 9.54% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

In March, the styrene market price fell first and then rose. From the above figure, it can be seen that the price of styrene has increased and decreased in the past month. The reason for the decline in the middle of the first half of the year was due to the decline in crude oil prices, poor cost support, the gradual restart of styrene maintenance equipment, abundant inventory supply at styrene loading ports, and the main decline in the styrene market. The main reason for the increase in late October is the continued rise in international oil prices, strong cost support, a decrease in styrene port inventory, and acceptable spot transactions. In summary, the styrene market in March was mainly affected by slight fluctuations in costs and inventory.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene fluctuated and increased in March, with little price fluctuation. On March 1st, the price was between 7000-7200 yuan/ton (average price 7100 yuan/ton); On March 31st, the price was between 7200 to 7300 yuan/ton (average price 7235 yuan/ton). In March, the market price of pure benzene rose in a narrow range, and there were few spot transactions, mainly in the month. The stable prices of the main units have boosted the market, but there is insufficient room for price decline. Some downstream and traders in Shandong are bullish in the future, and they are buying Shandong’s goods normally, with a fair transaction.

On the downstream side, the three major downstream markets of styrene saw mixed fluctuations in March. According to monitoring data from Business Society, the average price of PS brand 525 at the beginning of March was 9433 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of PS brand 525 was 9350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.88% and a decrease of 12.75% compared to the same period last year. On the supply side, the overall supply of domestic PS is relatively sufficient, and the inventory pressure of petrochemical plants is expected to be high. The pressure on the PS supply side still exists. Demand side: Due to limited downstream demand improvement, the supply and demand side gradually tends to be loose, and the overall market inquiry atmosphere is average, while the trading atmosphere on the market is flat.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of EPS ordinary materials did not change much in March. The average quotation for EPS ordinary materials at the beginning of the month was 9562 yuan/ton, and the average price for EPS ordinary materials at the end of the month was 9550 yuan/ton. At present, the digestion of market supply is slow, and the pressure on merchants to ship is not decreasing, with price reduction sales being the main focus. The wait-and-see atmosphere in the EPS market remains unchanged, and overall transaction performance is poor. It is expected that the domestic EPS market will mainly follow a narrow range consolidation trend.

In March, the domestic ABS market weakened and spot prices fluctuated and fell. Recently, the overall trend of the upstream three materials of ABS has been weak, with average support for the cost side of ABS. The high starting point of petrochemical plants has increased, and the market supply continues to be abundant. The demand side support is poor, the mentality of merchants is weak, and the operation tends to yield profits and take orders. It is expected that in the short term, the ABS market may continue to be weak due to the impact of supply and demand contradictions.

Recently, there is room for a decrease in styrene port inventory and an increase in downstream operating rates. However, the high inventory of downstream finished products has limited support for styrene, and the styrene market is likely to be greatly affected by crude oil. Therefore, the business community expects a slight increase in the styrene market in the short term.

In March, the dichloromethane market rose and fell back, showing an overall downward trend. According to data monitoring by the Business News Agency, as of March 31, the price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2572 yuan/ton, down 3.47% from 2665 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a monthly high of 2845 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol has dropped significantly, while the cost of dichloromethane has declined significantly; At the beginning of the month, the pressure on the supply side of the dichloromethane market was relatively low, coupled with the rising price of downstream refrigerant R32 during the peak season, which timely replenished the inventory of dichloromethane, driving up the price of dichloromethane; In the second half of the month, with the early shutdown, the restart of the load reduction device, or the lifting of the load to normal operation, the pressure on the supply side of dichloromethane increased. In addition, the centralized replenishment of the downstream warehouse has come to an end, and in the later stage, there are many scattered transactions, resulting in a high price drop of dichloromethane.

In March, the start of dichloromethane production was relatively low at the beginning of the month and increased in the later period, resulting in a gradual increase in supply side pressure.

In March, the price of raw material methanol fell sharply, while the cost of dichloromethane fell sharply. According to the business news agency, as of March 31, the spot price of methanol was 2561 yuan/ton, down 6.37% from 2735 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The market price of refrigerant R32 is strong during the traditional peak season. After the centralized replenishment of dichloromethane at the end of February and the beginning of March, the purchase of dichloromethane has decreased compared to the previous period, with small market transactions and weak support for dichloromethane.

Future Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst from the Business News Agency, the cost of dichloromethane is declining, coupled with greater pressure on the supply side, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will consolidate in a weak manner in the future.

According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the mainstream domestic urea market price fluctuated and fell in March: the urea price fell from 2829.38 yuan/ton on March 1 to 2783.75 yuan/ton on March 30, a decrease of 1.61%. At the end of the month, prices fell 6.59% year-on-year.

The urea commodity index on March 29 was 129.65, down 0.52 points from yesterday, down 14.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and up 133.18% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

From the perspective of supply side, the price of mainstream domestic urea market rose first and then fell in March

Cost side: Large decline in LNG

In March, the price of liquefied natural gas dropped significantly, from 6036.00 yuan/ton on March 1 to 54344.00 yuan/ton on March 30, a decrease of 28.03%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 40.35% compared to the same period last year. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium fast) rose slightly, rising from 1480 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1510 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia dropped significantly, from 4390.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4000.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 8.88%. At the end of the month, prices fell 19.25% year-on-year. Overall, urea upstream products fell sharply, with insufficient cost support.

Demand side: melamine price drops slightly

From the demand side, agricultural demand is weakening, while industrial demand is average. Affected by the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream of urea. Agricultural sporadic fertilizer supplementation, compound fertilizer, plate, and melamine enterprises are operating normally, and small orders are mainly needed for procurement. In March, the price of melamine decreased slightly, from 8275.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7975.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.63%.

Looking at the future market, the urea market in the first ten days of mid April may be dominated by a slight fluctuation and decline. Upstream LNG prices have fallen sharply, with insufficient cost support. The daily output of urea is about 160000 to 170000 tons, and the supply is normal. Downstream agricultural demand weakened, while industrial demand was moderate. Urea may fall slightly in the future.