First, the trend of the market:

According to statistics, the price trend of phthalic anhydride continues to rise. The price at the end of the weekend is 7175 yuan/ton, which is 3.24% higher than the price at the beginning of the week of 6950 yuan/ton, and 5.59% lower than the same period last year. About 7100-7200 yuan/ton of o-phthalic anhydride in Shandong and 7200-7400 yuan/ton of phthalic anhydride in Jiangsu are the mainstream of phthalic anhydride negotiations. The spot supply of the market is tight. The naphthalene phthalic anhydride plant starts normally, and the current quotation is 6800-6900 yuan/ton. Recently, the market price of phthalic anhydride continues to rise.

II. Market analysis:

Products: This week, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride continues to rise. Recently, due to the shortage of raw materials, the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply. The market opening rate of phthalic anhydride has fallen to 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is tight. Some manufacturers reflect that there is no stock, there are more orders, and the market is selling well. The price of phthalic anhydride keeps rising. Neighborhood method supply negotiation mainstream is 7100-7300 yuan/ton, naphthalene method supply negotiation mainstream is 6800-6900 yuan/ton; Phthalic anhydride market mainstream quotation in North China is 7100-7200 yuan/ton, market prices continue to rise, the quotations of enterprises in North China are rising, downstream construction is normal, purchasing on demand is dominant, there is still a wait-and-see mentality, domestic phthalic anhydride plant transportation. The market price of phthalic anhydride continues to rise. Recently, the supply of phthalic anhydride on the market is tight, and the price of phthalic anhydride continues to rise.

Upstream: In the near future, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec has risen to 6700 yuan/ton, the import price of phthalic anhydride has risen, the quotation has risen, the recent market of port phthalic anhydride has risen, some enterprises have quoted more than 7500 yuan/ton, the stock of port has declined, and the quotation of phthalic acid has risen concussively. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiati The upstream price trend is good for domestic phthalic anhydride market price, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply.

Downstream: The price of DOP in the downstream has risen recently. The domestic market price of DOP is 7966.67 yuan/ton by the end of the weekend. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride for DOP raw materials has risen sharply. The price of isooctanol has been stable and the cost of DOP has risen. DOP price shocks rise, DOP downstream shocks maintain stability, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market shocks rise, DOP market mainstream transaction price around 8050-8250 yuan/ton, for upstream phthalic anhydride demand has increased, phthalic anhydride market prices are well supported by higher.

Industry: Recently, the market of plasticizer industry has improved, the demand of downstream terminal has increased, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market continues to rise.

3. Future market forecast:

At present, the price trend of upstream phthalic anhydride is rising, the terminal demand is increasing, affected by cost support, and the supply of phthalic anhydride on the market is tight. The phthalic anhydride analysts of business association believe that the market price of phthalic anhydride will continue to rise, and the price will be around 7300 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to a large number of data monitoring by business associations, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong continued to fall this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of trichloromethane in Shandong was about 2400 yuan/ton, while at the end of the week, the average price was about 2300 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 4.17%.

II. Cause Analysis

Product Reasons: This week, chloroform enterprises in Shandong started normal work, the supply of the industry is stable, the downstream refrigerant industry is in the off-season, the demand for trichloromethane price is not good, combined with the lack of reserve intention of traders before the festival, the trichloromethane market continues to decline. At present, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong is about 2300 yuan/ton; that in Jiangsu is about 3800 yuan/ton; and that in Liwen, Jiangxi is about 2850 yuan/ton. In terms of plant start-up, Jinling in Shandong Province started normal construction, 60% of chemical industry in Western Shandong Province, Jiangsu Science and Culture Plant started normal construction, and 60% of Jiangxi Science and Culture Plant started construction.

Industry Chain: Upstream, the domestic methanol market is affected by the soaring crude oil and futures boost. It has risen by 3.91% in a week and is currently around 2180 yuan/ton. The overall start of the liquid chlorine market is not high, and the trade in the industry is still acceptable. At present, more than 500-700 yuan/ton is reported by enterprises, and the market is likely to decline in the future. On the downstream side, the domestic refrigerant market has started relatively, but the overall supply is abundant, and the after-sales market is just in poor demand. Now the company offers R22 bulk water 14000-17000 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 37 th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20), there were 41 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, 11 of which increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrochloric acid (157.14%), caustic soda (18.47%) and acetone (13.86%). There are 17 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dichloromethane (-5.19%), trichloromethane (-4.17%) and sulfuric acid (-2.98%).

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Club methane chloride data analysts believe that the current market for trichloromethane has just been in poor demand, affected by the National Day, logistics and transportation constraints in North China affect enterprise shipments, TRADERS’stock intention is not high, and anticipate a short-term decline in the volatility of the trichloromethane market.

Price trends:

On September 20, the hydrobenzene commodity index was 62.91, unchanged from yesterday, down 38.33% from the peak of 102.01 points in the cycle (2014-01-09), and up 41.18% from the low of 44.56 points on August 31, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2013-12-01 to date).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic hydrobenzene market rose this week (9.12-9.20). The average domestic market price was 5 466.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5 700 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 4.27%.

Domestic market: Affected by the Saudi Arabian incident, crude oil rose sharply, pure benzene external market rose sharply, FOB Korea closed up 41.5 U.S. dollars/ton, closing at 734-736 U.S. dollars/ton, CFR China rose 28.5 U.S. dollars/ton, closing at 739-741 U.S. dollars/ton. The hydrobenzene market was driven higher, with the manufacturers’offer rising by 150-200 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the overall start-up rate of the unit this week was about 50%. The price difference between crude benzene and hydrobenzene was reduced. The profit is reduced, so the manufacturer’s willingness to ship is low. Downstream units such as styrene and phenol start up relatively high, stock sentiment is relatively strong, and the price of hydrobenzene is better supported. As of Friday, the hydrobenzene market in Shandong Province ranged from 5650 to 5800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 5725 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: Crude Oil: Saudi Arabia’s largest crude oil facility was attacked by drones last Saturday, resulting in more than 5 million barrels a day of suspension of crude oil production capacity, which affected Monday’s international oil price rise by more than 10%. In response to the incident, Saudi Arabia said it would use its stockpiles to ensure that crude oil exports were not affected, restore oil supply to pre-attack levels at the end of September, and oil prices fell sharply. Brent rose 4.59% and WTI rose 4.23% from last week. Pure benzene: Affected by the Saudi Arabian incident last Saturday, the price of pure benzene in the outer market rose sharply at the beginning of the week, which led to a bullish domestic market. In the latter half of the week, oil prices and external markets both fell, and the market attitude was cautious.

3. Trend forecast:

Crude oil and pure benzene will remain at a high level in the short term. In addition, near the downstream of National Day, the hydrobenzene market is good and concentrated, and there is still a good price space in the future.

Price Trend

The price of EPS is rising, and the market trend is generally rising steadily. Businessmen mostly ship goods according to their own conditions, and the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to take orders has improved, but still mainly small single replenishment warehouse.

II. Market Analysis

EPS market quotation: EPS market price is stable as a whole, Wuxi Xingda EPS ex-factory price, common material quotation is 10500 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of Dongying Hairong EPS is 10500 yuan/ton for common materials. Jiangyin Hupao EPS ex-factory price, common material quoted 10500 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

EPS is currently active in downstream transactions, but the enthusiasm for improvement in inventory is limited. Demand maintenance strategy is just needed. It is expected that in the near future, EPS will mainly focus on narrow-band consolidation.

I. Trend of spot copper price

As shown in the chart above, domestic copper prices fell first and then rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic spot copper price was 46621.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week it was 47576.67 yuan/ton, up 2.05%, down 0.86% from the same period last year.

II. Copper Current Statement

As shown in the chart above, this week’s main contract price of copper is similar to the spot price trend, both falling first and then rising, but the main contract price is still lower than the spot price, indicating that people are not so optimistic about copper price expectations for the next two months.

New capacity meets the year of overhaul for copper enterprises

During the period of 2018-2019, domestic copper enterprises increased production capacity by nearly 2.47 million tons, and put into operation exceeded expectations, which led to a rebound of supply pressure in the copper market; however, in 2019, when copper enterprises overhauled, the output of copper enterprises in the first half of this year was significantly lower than expected. From January to July 2019, domestic copper refining output totaled 5.713 million tons, down 2.3% from last year. The output showed a downward trend, and since June, copper production began to rise slowly.

Detailed Statistics of New Capacity Increased by Domestic Copper Enterprises in 2018
Detailed Statistics of New Capacity Increased by Domestic Copper Enterprises in 2019
Depression in copper consumption market

Four major consumer industries in the domestic copper industry are power grid investment, household appliances, automobiles and real estate.

Real estate: From January to July 2019, the average sales value of TOP 100 real estate enterprises reached 63.67 billion yuan, and the number of real estate enterprises with a scale of over 100 billion yuan increased to 15. At the same time, data show that in the first July of this year, TOP 100 real estate enterprises’cumulative performance growth rate was about 4% year-on-year, and the overall growth rate of the industry scale slowed down significantly compared with 2018.

Household appliances: From January to June 2019, the cumulative domestic air-conditioning production was 118,833,000 units, an increase of 7.81% year-on-year; last year, the cumulative growth of 14.4% year-on-year; obviously, this year’s air-conditioning growth rate has declined significantly.

Automobile market: The domestic automobile consumption has declined significantly this year, which is an absolute decline; the cumulative automobile output from January to June 2019 is 12.138 million, which is 15.12% lower than the same period last year; the decline trend of traditional automobiles is obvious.

Power grid: Although the overall plan for power grid construction increased year-on-year.

In summary, copper analysts from the Nonferrous Branch of the Business Association believe that copper has been in a low volatility since the end of May this year. On the one hand, copper production has rebounded since June. On the other hand, the overall consumption of this year is low. Apart from the 5G support of the power grid, other three areas are household appliances, real estate and automobiles. Decline to varying degrees. Copper has risen slightly in the past two days, mainly due to the improvement of Jinjiu consumption expectations, which supported the rise in copper prices. Now is the peak consumption season, copper price shocks are expected to be strong.

Price Trend

Aniline prices have remained stable this week compared with last week, according to business associations’big list data. The mainstream price in Shandong is 6000 yuan/ton, while that in Nanjing is 6300 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

Raw Material: This week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China fell again, and the supply of market resources was on the tight side, which formed a favorable support for the price of pure benzene. The weak external support at the beginning of the week led to a cautious attitude in the domestic market. Following the rise of international oil price, the price of pure benzene on the outer plate increased. The Asian-American arbitrage window is still open, but the shortage of resources in the early stage has eased, and its influence on the market is limited.

Product: This week’s aniline tender price is higher than last week’s. However, downstream enterprises have been notified of production restriction, the start-up rate has been reduced, and the demand for aniline has been reduced. By offset, aniline prices remained stable this week.

III. Future Market Expectations

Raw Material: Domestic pure benzene supply is tight, and Sinopec is expected to increase at present, pure benzene market is expected to remain good next week.

Cost support is strong. If the price of pure benzene continues to rise next week, aniline may follow.

Price Trend

Domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market tumbled in August. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic liquefied gas market was 3733.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 3730 yuan/ton. The price fell by 0.09% in the month, which was 20.79% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: In August, the domestic liquefied petroleum gas market price fluctuated narrowly and overall downward. As of August 30, the ex-factory price of liquefied gas of Sinopec Guangzhou Branch was 3180 yuan/ton, that of Sinopec Jingmen Branch was 3450 yuan/ton, that of Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company was 3310 yuan/ton, that of Sinopec Qingdao Refinery and Chemical Company was 3390 yuan/ton, and that of Sinopec Shijiazhuang was 3450 yuan/ton. The liquefied gas ex-factory price of refinery branch is 3500 yuan/ton. Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical Liquefied Gas ex-factory price is 3600 yuan/ton.

The narrow adjustment of liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong market) shocks in August is the main factor, and the international crude oil price still has a great impact on the liquefied petroleum gas market this month. In early August, liquefied petroleum gas prices continued to be low, downstream risky mentality into the market was positive, manufacturers shipped more smoothly, inventory pressure, and then pushed up. However, limited by the decline in international crude oil, the increase is not significant. In mid-August, the typhoon affected the production and transportation of the manufacturers, blocked shipment for several days in a row, and prices fell. Subsequently, the weather gradually weakened, shipments returned to normal, inventory was eased, and international crude oil pushed the market higher. But shipments have improved for a short time, although the traditional sales season is approaching, but demand is limited, coupled with the expected fall in September CP, downstream bearish on the future market, the enthusiasm for entering the market has faded. The shipment of the manufacturer returned to flat again, and the price fell again at the end of August. Until September CP was introduced, propane had fallen but less than expected, alleviating the market mentality and rising prices slightly.

Industry chain:

Graph.100ppi.com (500 x 300)

The domestic dimethyl ether market continued to decline in August. At the beginning of August, the profit of dimethyl ether Market was relatively high. Some manufacturers started driving and the market supply increased, but the terminal demand was slow, the contradiction between supply and demand was prominent, and the price fell mainly. In mid-August, in order to avoid the continuous downward price, Henan Xinlian implemented the policy of keeping the bottom price for many times. Although it protected the market price on the side, it still did not alleviate the shipment situation of manufacturers. Inventory accumulated, pressure increased gradually, more profit was given priority to the shipment, and the price was lowered again. Until the end of August, the dimethyl ether Market did not improve substantially, and shipments continued to be cold and weak.

The propane Market as a whole rose slightly in August, mostly due to shocks. At the beginning of this month, CP price was introduced in August, propane slightly fell, which brought bad news to the market. In addition, the international crude oil fell sharply on August 2, which affected the market mentality. The enthusiasm for entering the market downstream was not high, the manufacturers’shipments were not smooth, and the main focus of propane price was to let profits drain away from the warehouse. But in mid-August, with the sustained upward trend of international crude oil, propane market was boosted, downstream market entry enthusiasm improved, manufacturers shipped smoothly, inventory pressure was not high, and prices stopped falling and rebounded. But August is still the traditional off-season of demand, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, coupled with the anticipated fall of CPs in September, the price rise is blocked. Until the end of August, when the CP price was introduced in September, propane dropped slightly compared with last month, but the decline was less than expected. The market mentality was supported and the price rose slightly.

Saudi Amy Corp. announced in September that the price of propane was lowered and the price of butane was flat. Propane was $350 per ton, down by $20 per ton from last month; butane was $360 per ton, flat from last month. The cost of long-term approximate cargo propane converted to onshore is around 3 022 yuan/ton and that of butane 3100 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were five kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, of which more than 5% increased, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were MTBE (8.16%), gasoline (2.24%) and methanol (1.22%). There are 11 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dimethyl ether (-9.03%), liquefied natural gas (-7.08%) and Brent crude oil (-6.28%). This month’s average rise and fall was -1.52%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Liquefied gas analysts believe that the traditional sales season is approaching, the market demand for liquefied gas is rising, and the Mid-Autumn Festival is approaching. Inventory replenishment is expected before and after the downstream festival, and prices are expected to stabilize and then rise in September.

Price Trend

Business associations: MTBE market prices rose sharply in August

According to the data of business associations, the market price of MTBE rose sharply in August. At the end of August, the price of MTBE was 5966 yuan/ton, which was 8.16% higher than the price of 5516 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic gasoline market rose slightly in August, but with the expected support of the Mid-Autumn Festival, the market bullish sentiment is strong, driving up the MTBE market prices.

Industry Chain: In August, Sino-US trade relations fluctuated and global risky assets plunged. Despite the firm attitude of OPEC and other countries to reduce production and the boost of U.S. crude oil production and inventories, international oil prices showed a general trend of fluctuation and decline. The monthly decline of WTI international crude oil futures price was 4.78%. However, August is the peak season of gasoline demand, and the demand for vacation travel supports the demand of domestic MTBE market.

Market: Influenced by the decline of international oil and gasoline prices in early August, MTBE market prices kept stable operation. In the latter half of August, the downstream market just needed to recover quickly. Intermediary purchasing was active. MTBE manufacturers’shipment prices rose smoothly and rapidly. Domestic MTBE plant start-up rate also increased to 52.32%, but still fell by 0.67% compared with the same period last year.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of MTBE products of Business Society Energy Branch believe that the gasoline market price will continue to rise with two holidays in September, but the total price of MTBE will rise by 20% in July and August. It is expected that the domestic MTBE market will be dominated by digestive growth in September, and the price of MTBE will remain stable.

Price Trend

The domestic BDO market is stagnant. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the domestic BDO market price at the beginning of the weekend was 9360 yuan/ton, rising by 1.74% annually, and falling by 18.30% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week domestic BDO market supply and demand game, talk about saw. Over the weekend, Tianhua and Shaanxi have restarted the replacement catalyst, Dongyuan is still under repair, other units started stable, the start-up load has increased compared with last week, the supply side is generally good support. Downstream PBT start-up rate has rebounded, demand has increased slightly, other downstream demand is still general, long-term delivery, spot market just need small single replenishment warehouse, large single negotiations rarely heard. And hearing about the new capacity test has a certain negative impact on the mindset of the operators. In the absence of clear information in the market, the industry’s mentality of stabilizing the market is dominant. In terms of price, the mainstream price in the East China market is 8600-9000 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week. The domestic BDO market started at 54% this week, with a weekly output of about 22535 tons.

In terms of installation, this week, 110,000 tons/year BDO plant in Kaixiang, Henan Province, stopped for safety investigation on July 19 due to the explosion of Yima, and the restart time is uncertain for a while; 25,000 tons/year in Tianhua, Sichuan Province, and 60,000 tons/year in Tianye, Sichuan Province, restarted and operated normally on August 18; and 210,000 tons/year BDO plant in Tianye, Xinjiang, except for the normal operation of the first phase, its restart time is uncertain. His installation has not been restarted yet; Dongyuan 100,000 tons/year plant in Inner Mongolia stopped for maintenance on August 13, and is expected to be around 25 days.

On the market side, as of Friday (8.23), the BDO market in East China was in a dilemma. The factory starts smoothly, the supply side supports generally, the downstream demand has not improved, some industries have negative expectations, the mindset of the business is stable, the focus is stable. The weak market of BDO in South China shocks. Market supply is still acceptable, downstream demand continues to be depressed, just need to pick up goods, and there are new production capacity test news shocks the market, the industry stable offer.

Industry chain: raw materials, calcium carbide, domestic calcium carbide market fell this week, production enterprises shipped actively, with the recovery of downstream maintenance devices in recent days, increased demand, inventory pressure gradually weakened, low-cost supply decreased. But the downstream purchasing enterprises have regional uneven arrival. The arrival of carbide has increased in Shaanxi, North China and Henan. Enterprises plan to continue to reduce the purchase price of calcium carbide. However, in some areas of Shandong, due to the impact of early rainfall and road security inspection, the arrival of calcium carbide is tense and the purchase price is on the high side. Recently, due to the influence of geological disasters such as debris flow, the supply of calcium carbide in some enterprises in Sichuan is insufficient, which affects the start-up of downstream PVC plants, and enterprises actively purchase outside Sichuan, but the start-up is still low. On the upstream side, the lowering of raw coal prices led to insufficient support for the cost of Lanzhou charcoal, and the price of Lanzhou charcoal fell. And recently released documents to strengthen the management and control of limestone mining, aggravating market wait-and-see. It is expected that due to the maintenance of self-provided calcium carbide PVC enterprises in Northwest China starting next week, the export volume of calcium carbide will be increased, the supply of calcium carbide will increase, and the market of calcium carbide will continue to decline mainly, with a reduction of 50 yuan/ton.

Methanol: This week, due to the restart of enterprises such as Datang, Rongxin, Xianyang and Weihua, the supply increment in the region is obvious. In addition, the downstream stocks are mostly kept at a high level, and traders are cautious about receiving goods, which led to the decline of methanol prices in Northwest China. Mainstream prices in Inner Mongolia fell from 1800 yuan/ton to 1605 yuan/ton this week, down 10.83% annually, while those in Guanzhong fell from 2000 to 1900 yuan/ton, down 5% annually. At present, port stocks remain high, futures market is weak, downstream and traders are short of the future market, so methanol market is still expected to fall next week.

On the downstream side, PBT: Kaixiang, Henan, stopped on May 30 without a restart plan; Nantong Star stopped on July 10 for overhaul and restarted on August 16; Tunhe plant stopped on August 9 for about a month; Kanghui Petrochemical Company operated on two lines with a load of about 60%; Wuxi Xingsheng Load was about 60%.

3. Future Market Forecast

This week, part of the overhaul plant started, the overall market start-up load has increased, the supply side is generally good support. Nantong Star PBT has been restarted, the demand has increased slightly, other downstream demand has not improved significantly compared with the previous period, just need to replenish warehouse. And the new capacity releases news constantly, although no products are produced, but it has a negative impact on the market with the most short profits. Business BDO analysts expect that the domestic BDO market will continue to run deadlocked next week, focusing more on device dynamics and downstream demand changes.

A Survey of the Price Trend of Silicon Metal (441) in August

According to data from business associations, the average market price of metal silicon (441) as of August 23 was 11,100 yuan/ton, which was 4.39% higher than the average market price of 10,633.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In August, the price of Silicon City has greatly improved compared with the previous downturn.

Business statistics show that in 2019, the lowest average price of metal silicon (441 #) appeared on July 26, with an average price of 10 633.33 yuan/ton, a decline of 12.66% compared with the market average price of 12 175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year; the peak price of 12 2225 yuan/ton (March 4), an increase of 0.41% compared with the beginning of the year; and the amplitude of the current year is 13.05%.

Since mid-March, the price of metal silicon (441) has shown a downward trend as a whole. The market trend of metal silicon commodity index is as follows:
According to historical data, the metal silicon commodity index on August 22 was 76.74, up 0.46 points from yesterday, down 28.56% from 107.42 points in the cycle (2017-09-12), and up 11.59% from 68.77 points on September 25, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

The price of 441# silicon in different regions on 23rd is as follows:

The price range of # metal silicon in Fujian is 10,600-10,800 yuan/ton, that of # metal silicon in Sichuan is 10,900-11,100 yuan/ton, that of # metal silicon in Kunming is 10,800-10,900 yuan/ton, that of # metal silicon in Shanghai is 11,700-11,900 yuan/ton, that of # metal silicon in Tianjin Port is 11,000-11,200 yuan/ton, and Huangpu is 1,000 yuan/ton. The price range of metal silicon in Hong Kong is 11,100-11,200 yuan/ton.

A Survey of Three Downstream Data of Aluminum Alloy, Silicone and Polycrystalline Silicon

1. The total output of aluminium alloy declined slightly from January to July, and the export situation was good.

According to the latest data updated on the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of aluminium alloy in July was 8.28 million tons, a decrease of 4.1% compared with the same period last year; the total output in January-July was 5.359 million tons, a decrease of 1.2% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of import and export, according to the data of China Customs, the export volume of aluminium alloy in June 2019 was about 51,000 tons, an increase of about 10.1% annually, and an increase of about 12.8% year on year. In the first half of this year, China’s aluminium alloy exports totaled about 280,000 tons, an increase of about 14.4% over the same period last year.

2. Silicone DMC prices bottomed out in mid-June and have risen by 28.31% so far.

According to data from business associations, the comprehensive average price of organosilicon DMC in China on August 23 was 21 000 yuan/ton, up 28.31% from the market average of 16 366.67 yuan/ton on June 14.
Obviously, when the downstream silicone DMC started to rise in mid-June, the overall market of silicon was weak, as was the low-grade metal silicon (441).

Price Trend of Metal Silicon-Organosilicon DMC

The DMC commodity price ratio index of metal silicon and organic silicon on August 22 was 67.49, up 0.41 points from yesterday, down 37.49% from the peak of 107.97 points in the cycle (2015-02-10), and up 4.44% from the low of 64.62 points on April 18, 2017. (Note: Period refers to 2012-01-01 to present)

3. Polycrystalline silicon falls and falls continuously. High-grade silicon bears great pressure.
It is reported that the domestic polycrystalline silicon market is at a stable bottom, the price is beginning to show a trend of stop-fall, the market atmosphere is still acceptable, at present, the manufacturers’equipment maintenance is not much, and the market supply is stable.

Improvement of Supply and Demand in August in Silicon City

Supply side: The start-up rate of silicon plants in Sichuan-Yunnan region has reached a relatively high level in the whole year, but it is about 3 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The repair capacity of some manufacturers in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia and other regions is expected to resume in the middle and late August, and the start-up rate in the north will be slightly increased. Influenced by the weak market of falling silicon prices in the early period, some high-cost production capacity has been cleared out of the market. In July, the start-up rate of silicon enterprises decreased by 7-8 points compared with the same period last year.

Demand side: In August, the domestic and foreign trade orders were released centrally, the sufficient inventory of the northern large factories was reduced, the price of Silicon City was stabilizing and rising as a whole, and the market popularity was warming up. Some people believe that after a long downward trend, the price has now tended to the bottom of the market, and some TRADERS’market confidence has rebounded, and there is room for the downward trend. In anticipation of the limitation, some domestic downstream enterprises changed their weekly and scattered purchasing to monthly bidding, and the volume of centralized purchasing orders increased.

The market of low-grade silicon is expected to be good in the future

Since the end of July, traders and downstream purchases have been active, factory stocks have been greatly reduced, low-grade silicon is affected by supply and demand factors, and the quotation of low-grade silicon is constantly raised, and low-price supply is difficult to find. It is expected that the price of metal silicon (553, 441) will run strongly in the near future, and the market will wait and see the downstream demand changes.