Price Trend

Business associations: MTBE market prices rose sharply in August

According to the data of business associations, the market price of MTBE rose sharply in August. At the end of August, the price of MTBE was 5966 yuan/ton, which was 8.16% higher than the price of 5516 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic gasoline market rose slightly in August, but with the expected support of the Mid-Autumn Festival, the market bullish sentiment is strong, driving up the MTBE market prices.

Industry Chain: In August, Sino-US trade relations fluctuated and global risky assets plunged. Despite the firm attitude of OPEC and other countries to reduce production and the boost of U.S. crude oil production and inventories, international oil prices showed a general trend of fluctuation and decline. The monthly decline of WTI international crude oil futures price was 4.78%. However, August is the peak season of gasoline demand, and the demand for vacation travel supports the demand of domestic MTBE market.

Market: Influenced by the decline of international oil and gasoline prices in early August, MTBE market prices kept stable operation. In the latter half of August, the downstream market just needed to recover quickly. Intermediary purchasing was active. MTBE manufacturers’shipment prices rose smoothly and rapidly. Domestic MTBE plant start-up rate also increased to 52.32%, but still fell by 0.67% compared with the same period last year.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of MTBE products of Business Society Energy Branch believe that the gasoline market price will continue to rise with two holidays in September, but the total price of MTBE will rise by 20% in July and August. It is expected that the domestic MTBE market will be dominated by digestive growth in September, and the price of MTBE will remain stable.

Price Trend

The domestic BDO market is stagnant. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the domestic BDO market price at the beginning of the weekend was 9360 yuan/ton, rising by 1.74% annually, and falling by 18.30% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week domestic BDO market supply and demand game, talk about saw. Over the weekend, Tianhua and Shaanxi have restarted the replacement catalyst, Dongyuan is still under repair, other units started stable, the start-up load has increased compared with last week, the supply side is generally good support. Downstream PBT start-up rate has rebounded, demand has increased slightly, other downstream demand is still general, long-term delivery, spot market just need small single replenishment warehouse, large single negotiations rarely heard. And hearing about the new capacity test has a certain negative impact on the mindset of the operators. In the absence of clear information in the market, the industry’s mentality of stabilizing the market is dominant. In terms of price, the mainstream price in the East China market is 8600-9000 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week. The domestic BDO market started at 54% this week, with a weekly output of about 22535 tons.

In terms of installation, this week, 110,000 tons/year BDO plant in Kaixiang, Henan Province, stopped for safety investigation on July 19 due to the explosion of Yima, and the restart time is uncertain for a while; 25,000 tons/year in Tianhua, Sichuan Province, and 60,000 tons/year in Tianye, Sichuan Province, restarted and operated normally on August 18; and 210,000 tons/year BDO plant in Tianye, Xinjiang, except for the normal operation of the first phase, its restart time is uncertain. His installation has not been restarted yet; Dongyuan 100,000 tons/year plant in Inner Mongolia stopped for maintenance on August 13, and is expected to be around 25 days.

On the market side, as of Friday (8.23), the BDO market in East China was in a dilemma. The factory starts smoothly, the supply side supports generally, the downstream demand has not improved, some industries have negative expectations, the mindset of the business is stable, the focus is stable. The weak market of BDO in South China shocks. Market supply is still acceptable, downstream demand continues to be depressed, just need to pick up goods, and there are new production capacity test news shocks the market, the industry stable offer.

Industry chain: raw materials, calcium carbide, domestic calcium carbide market fell this week, production enterprises shipped actively, with the recovery of downstream maintenance devices in recent days, increased demand, inventory pressure gradually weakened, low-cost supply decreased. But the downstream purchasing enterprises have regional uneven arrival. The arrival of carbide has increased in Shaanxi, North China and Henan. Enterprises plan to continue to reduce the purchase price of calcium carbide. However, in some areas of Shandong, due to the impact of early rainfall and road security inspection, the arrival of calcium carbide is tense and the purchase price is on the high side. Recently, due to the influence of geological disasters such as debris flow, the supply of calcium carbide in some enterprises in Sichuan is insufficient, which affects the start-up of downstream PVC plants, and enterprises actively purchase outside Sichuan, but the start-up is still low. On the upstream side, the lowering of raw coal prices led to insufficient support for the cost of Lanzhou charcoal, and the price of Lanzhou charcoal fell. And recently released documents to strengthen the management and control of limestone mining, aggravating market wait-and-see. It is expected that due to the maintenance of self-provided calcium carbide PVC enterprises in Northwest China starting next week, the export volume of calcium carbide will be increased, the supply of calcium carbide will increase, and the market of calcium carbide will continue to decline mainly, with a reduction of 50 yuan/ton.

Methanol: This week, due to the restart of enterprises such as Datang, Rongxin, Xianyang and Weihua, the supply increment in the region is obvious. In addition, the downstream stocks are mostly kept at a high level, and traders are cautious about receiving goods, which led to the decline of methanol prices in Northwest China. Mainstream prices in Inner Mongolia fell from 1800 yuan/ton to 1605 yuan/ton this week, down 10.83% annually, while those in Guanzhong fell from 2000 to 1900 yuan/ton, down 5% annually. At present, port stocks remain high, futures market is weak, downstream and traders are short of the future market, so methanol market is still expected to fall next week.

On the downstream side, PBT: Kaixiang, Henan, stopped on May 30 without a restart plan; Nantong Star stopped on July 10 for overhaul and restarted on August 16; Tunhe plant stopped on August 9 for about a month; Kanghui Petrochemical Company operated on two lines with a load of about 60%; Wuxi Xingsheng Load was about 60%.

3. Future Market Forecast

This week, part of the overhaul plant started, the overall market start-up load has increased, the supply side is generally good support. Nantong Star PBT has been restarted, the demand has increased slightly, other downstream demand has not improved significantly compared with the previous period, just need to replenish warehouse. And the new capacity releases news constantly, although no products are produced, but it has a negative impact on the market with the most short profits. Business BDO analysts expect that the domestic BDO market will continue to run deadlocked next week, focusing more on device dynamics and downstream demand changes.

A Survey of the Price Trend of Silicon Metal (441) in August

According to data from business associations, the average market price of metal silicon (441) as of August 23 was 11,100 yuan/ton, which was 4.39% higher than the average market price of 10,633.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In August, the price of Silicon City has greatly improved compared with the previous downturn.

Business statistics show that in 2019, the lowest average price of metal silicon (441 #) appeared on July 26, with an average price of 10 633.33 yuan/ton, a decline of 12.66% compared with the market average price of 12 175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year; the peak price of 12 2225 yuan/ton (March 4), an increase of 0.41% compared with the beginning of the year; and the amplitude of the current year is 13.05%.

Since mid-March, the price of metal silicon (441) has shown a downward trend as a whole. The market trend of metal silicon commodity index is as follows:
According to historical data, the metal silicon commodity index on August 22 was 76.74, up 0.46 points from yesterday, down 28.56% from 107.42 points in the cycle (2017-09-12), and up 11.59% from 68.77 points on September 25, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

The price of 441# silicon in different regions on 23rd is as follows:

The price range of # metal silicon in Fujian is 10,600-10,800 yuan/ton, that of # metal silicon in Sichuan is 10,900-11,100 yuan/ton, that of # metal silicon in Kunming is 10,800-10,900 yuan/ton, that of # metal silicon in Shanghai is 11,700-11,900 yuan/ton, that of # metal silicon in Tianjin Port is 11,000-11,200 yuan/ton, and Huangpu is 1,000 yuan/ton. The price range of metal silicon in Hong Kong is 11,100-11,200 yuan/ton.

A Survey of Three Downstream Data of Aluminum Alloy, Silicone and Polycrystalline Silicon

1. The total output of aluminium alloy declined slightly from January to July, and the export situation was good.

According to the latest data updated on the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of aluminium alloy in July was 8.28 million tons, a decrease of 4.1% compared with the same period last year; the total output in January-July was 5.359 million tons, a decrease of 1.2% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of import and export, according to the data of China Customs, the export volume of aluminium alloy in June 2019 was about 51,000 tons, an increase of about 10.1% annually, and an increase of about 12.8% year on year. In the first half of this year, China’s aluminium alloy exports totaled about 280,000 tons, an increase of about 14.4% over the same period last year.

2. Silicone DMC prices bottomed out in mid-June and have risen by 28.31% so far.

According to data from business associations, the comprehensive average price of organosilicon DMC in China on August 23 was 21 000 yuan/ton, up 28.31% from the market average of 16 366.67 yuan/ton on June 14.
Obviously, when the downstream silicone DMC started to rise in mid-June, the overall market of silicon was weak, as was the low-grade metal silicon (441).

Price Trend of Metal Silicon-Organosilicon DMC

The DMC commodity price ratio index of metal silicon and organic silicon on August 22 was 67.49, up 0.41 points from yesterday, down 37.49% from the peak of 107.97 points in the cycle (2015-02-10), and up 4.44% from the low of 64.62 points on April 18, 2017. (Note: Period refers to 2012-01-01 to present)

3. Polycrystalline silicon falls and falls continuously. High-grade silicon bears great pressure.
It is reported that the domestic polycrystalline silicon market is at a stable bottom, the price is beginning to show a trend of stop-fall, the market atmosphere is still acceptable, at present, the manufacturers’equipment maintenance is not much, and the market supply is stable.

Improvement of Supply and Demand in August in Silicon City

Supply side: The start-up rate of silicon plants in Sichuan-Yunnan region has reached a relatively high level in the whole year, but it is about 3 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The repair capacity of some manufacturers in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia and other regions is expected to resume in the middle and late August, and the start-up rate in the north will be slightly increased. Influenced by the weak market of falling silicon prices in the early period, some high-cost production capacity has been cleared out of the market. In July, the start-up rate of silicon enterprises decreased by 7-8 points compared with the same period last year.

Demand side: In August, the domestic and foreign trade orders were released centrally, the sufficient inventory of the northern large factories was reduced, the price of Silicon City was stabilizing and rising as a whole, and the market popularity was warming up. Some people believe that after a long downward trend, the price has now tended to the bottom of the market, and some TRADERS’market confidence has rebounded, and there is room for the downward trend. In anticipation of the limitation, some domestic downstream enterprises changed their weekly and scattered purchasing to monthly bidding, and the volume of centralized purchasing orders increased.

The market of low-grade silicon is expected to be good in the future

Since the end of July, traders and downstream purchases have been active, factory stocks have been greatly reduced, low-grade silicon is affected by supply and demand factors, and the quotation of low-grade silicon is constantly raised, and low-price supply is difficult to find. It is expected that the price of metal silicon (553, 441) will run strongly in the near future, and the market will wait and see the downstream demand changes.

Price trends:

According to statistics, this week’s domestic ex-factory price of p-xylene showed a temporary stable trend, with an average weekend price of 7,000 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of 7,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 15.66% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis:

Products: This week, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is stable, the domestic PX start-up rate maintains more than 70%, Huizhou refining and chemical plant runs steadily, Fuhaichuang plant starts a line, Pengzhou Petrochemical plant runs steadily, Yangtze Petrochemical PX plant runs normally, Jinling Petrochemical plant runs smoothly, Qingdao Lidong plant runs at full load, Qi Luzhou Petrochemical Plant runs steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant starts at about 50%, Hengli Petrochemical Plant runs normally, domestic p-xylene supply is normal, recent international crude oil price fluctuation, domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable. The opening rate of paraxylene plant in Asia is more than 70% this week, and the supply of PX in Asia is normal. This week, the price of PX external market is slightly lower. By the end of the weekend, the closing price of the Asian market for paraxylene is US$762-764/ton FOB Korea and US$781-783/ton CFR China. More than 50% of domestic products need to be imported. PX external market closes. The price fluctuation has brought negative effects to the domestic market, and the price trend of the domestic PX market is temporarily stable.

Industry chain: This week’s domestic crude oil closing price shocks, as of 22 U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price was 55.35 U.S. dollars per barrel, Brent crude oil futures price was 59.92 U.S. dollars per barrel, this week’s crude oil closing price shocks, for downstream petrochemical products prices have little impact, PX market price trend is temporarily stable. The price of PTA market in the lower reaches of this week declined. By the end of the weekend, the price of PTA market in East China was around 5200-5300 yuan. The price of raw material PX market in the upper reaches was stable. Recently, PTA start-up load has been rising to 91%. Several sets of equipment in the supply side have restarted the short-term market. Terminal demand has improved slightly, and polyester start-up stock has fallen back. The downstream polyester start-up load restored to about 88%, and the start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 74%. Inventory, polyester FDY inventory fell for 3 days, polyester DTY decreased for 2.5 days, polyester POY decreased for 2 days, downstream demand was general, and the price trend of p-xylene market was temporarily stable.

Industry: This week, the textile industry’s market trend shocks, the textile industry’s start-up rate has not changed much, crude oil prices remain shocks, raw material PX market trend is stable.

3. Future market forecast:

Chen Ling, an analyst with business association PX, believes that recent changes in crude oil prices, together with a slight decline in PTA market prices, the downstream textile industry has maintained a high start-up rate, and the domestic PX market supply is normal. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain volatile next week.

Price trends:

The crude benzol commodity index on August 23 was 61.07, unchanged from yesterday, down 53.68% from the cyclical peak of 131.84 points (2013-01-28), and up 55.59% from the lowest point of 39.25 on December 22, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market analysis:

This week (8.19-8.23) the domestic crude benzol Market rose sharply. The average domestic market price was 3616.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 3 900 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up by 7.83%.

Domestic market: This week’s market positive factors are concentrated, pure benzene external market has risen continuously, downstream profits have gradually increased, bringing benefits to the crude benzene market. As of Friday, prices in Shandong, Shanxi and other major markets have risen to about 4100 yuan/ton, up 500-550 yuan/ton from last week. Demand: downstream hydrobenzene manufacturers are actively starting work. With the increase of the price gap with crude benzene, profits are highlighted. The hydrobenzene market will be in September with active stock and good turnover. Supply side: coking enterprises started relatively stable in the near future, at about 70%, the pressure of environmental protection is still high near National Day, coking enterprises start rate is difficult to rise, crude benzene supply will still be tight.

Industry Chain: Crude Oil: International oil prices rose first and then fell this week. Overall, compared with last Friday, Brent rose by 2.9%, WTI rose by 1.62%. Oil prices rose as global stock markets rebounded and geopolitical tensions intensified. Oil prices stopped rising and fell because of uncertainty about the Fed’s interest rate cut prospects. Pure benzene: At the beginning of the week, due to the supply gap of pure benzene in the United States, pure benzene in Korea was arbitraged to the United States. The high price of pure benzene in the U.S. dollar plate supported the rise of domestic pure benzene price. On Thursday, the supply of pure benzene in eastern China was tight. Pure benzene companies in Shandong sent their supplies to Eastern China, and the prices of refined pure benzene in Shandong rose.

3. Trend forecast:

Pure benzene external market continues to rise, the market is still expected to rise in Sinopec’s listed price, the market atmosphere is good, crude benzene and pure benzene are relatively stable, it is expected that the future crude benzene market will be dominated by high volatility, if there is downstream demand support, there is still room for future market growth.

Price trends:

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the caustic soda market was stable and small this week. The overall load of the equipment affected by typhoon decreased and the price increased narrowly. However, business associations monitored the overall stability of prices in Shandong, with an offer of 705 yuan/ton of caustic soda in Shandong up to now, which was stable within a week.

II. Market Analysis

Product: The price of caustic soda is stable and small this week. In North China, such as Shandong, the start-up rate of typhoon-affected devices has been reduced, while in some factories, it has been narrowly increased, but the overall impact is not significant. Market TRADERS’purchasing enthusiasm has increased, market supply is tense, and turnover has increased. East China as a whole is relatively weak, and the demand for lower demand is generally affected by the impact of the surrounding market.

Industry chain: 32 liquid alkali overall trend is stable, short-term typhoon impact device start-up rate decreased, supply is slightly tense, liquid chlorine market steady upward, Shandong and East China Xiaoxian obvious, up to the present price of liquid chlorine in Shandong region increased by 100 yuan/ton, Jiangsu Anhui region has also significantly increased.

Industry: Affected by typhoon, the production of chlor-alkali market in Shandong Province has been cut down a lot, and transportation has been hindered, and supply and demand have been reduced.

Business analysts believe that: after the disaster, the equipment has been restored, but the supply can not be improved in the short term. Next week or there is speculation, we still need to pay attention to the downstream factories. We expect that the caustic soda market will adjust narrowly in the short term, and see the downstream market demand specifically.

Commodity Index: On August 18, the Polyaluminium Chloride Commodity Index was 104.50, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.34% from the peak of 108.11 points in the cycle (2019-04-24), and up 3.57% from the low of 100.90 points on April 09, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Price quotation: Among the main manufacturers monitored by business associations, the mainstream price of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was 1933.33 yuan/ton on August 1, and the market price of this product was stable at 1933.33 yuan/ton on August 18. In addition, the quotation of some factories in Gongyi District of Henan Province has risen. According to the monitoring data of the commercial association (100ppi.com), the price range of the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride at present is: solid polyaluminium chloride (industrial grade, content (>28%) with tax quotation of 1800-2200 yuan/ton, liquid (industrial grade, content 10-12%) with tax quotation of 350-500 yuan/ton, the quotation of individual manufacturers rises, and solid quotation of polyaluminium chloride increases. Up 100-200 yuan/ton, liquid up to 50 yuan/ton, the overall range of domestic price quotations increased.

Industry chain: In recent upstream raw materials of polyaluminium chloride, the price of hydrochloric acid has been stable this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the mainstream price of hydrochloric acid market was 123.33 yuan/ton from 13th to 18th. The downstream demand for polyaluminium chloride is also stable.

Industry: In late last month, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises of Yongan Road Street Office in Gongyi City, Henan Province, received the “stop-production notice” recently. The notice requests that according to the analysis of the environmental pollution situation and the future polluted weather situation in the city, the municipal attack and fortification office requires all the deep treatment enterprises to stop production and control before acceptance, and set up according to the attack and fortification. Production can be resumed after dispatch or acceptance. This week, local manufacturers said they were allowed to resume production for 10 days and asked to stop production again from the 15th.

Gongyi City, Henan Province, issued a circular on the deep management of enterprise shutdown (see below):

Future forecast: In the near future, the downstream demand of polyaluminium chloride is still relatively stable, the price of hydrochloric acid in the upstream is stable, and the production of polyaluminium chloride is stopped again after the resumption of production. The price of polyaluminium chloride of the discontinued manufacturers has increased greatly. In the future, such manufacturers still rely on inventory and pricing of the resumption time, and continue to pay close attention to the environmental impact.

Price Trend

This week, the domestic butadiene market was tidied up narrowly. Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price was 9667 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 10,000 yuan/ton at the weekend, 0.33% increase in the week, 5.13% maximum amplitude in the week, 17.64% rise in the price cycle, 22.05% decline over the previous year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: This week, the domestic butadiene market was weaker. Although Sinopec’s price continued to rise by 200 yuan/ton, the price of northern export manufacturers fell to about 9000 yuan/ton. Due to the weak trend of the downstream synthetic rubber market, the high butadiene level has led to the prominent cost pressure of manufacturers. In the week, the butadiene-styrene and cis-butadiene rubber industry started to go down to a certain extent. In addition, the latex industry just needs to support weak, and the overall demand for butadiene weakened. Recently, northern manufacturers export normally, and a small amount of Fushun Petrochemical supply, the market supply increased slightly, weak supply and demand dragged most of the nodal manufacturers on Thursday, aggravating the market downturn. In terms of price, Shandong’s top-grade products are delivered at a price reference of 9700-9800 yuan/ton, a drop of 600 yuan/ton annually, while East China’s deliveries at a price reference of 10300-10400 yuan/ton, a drop of 200 yuan/ton annually, and the market inquiry atmosphere is depressed.

Installation: Yangtze Petrochemical 220,000 tons/year plant, 3 # long-term shutdown; 1 # and 2 # total 120,000 tons/year plant normal operation; Zhenhai refinery and chemical 165,000 tons/year plant normal operation, mutual supply is the main, a small amount of export; Liaotong Petrochemical 120,000 tons/year butadiene plant normal operation, bidding export trading range 9510-9518 yuan/ton. Fushun Petrochemical 160,000 tons/year plant is in normal operation, and there is no export for the time being. The 100,000-ton/year oxidative dehydrogenation unit in Silbang, Jiangsu, stopped on July 29 and plans to restart.

Industry chain: downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, this week, only CNOOC Northeast sales of styrene-butadiene rubber prices down, domestic styrene-butadiene rubber factory prices as a whole stable, dry rubber 1502 billing price 10600-10700 yuan/ton, stable than last period; styrene-butadiene rubber 1712 billing price 9600-9750 yuan/ton, stable than last period. Market prices fell, Qilu 1502E quoted near 10,600 yuan/ton, 300 yuan/ton lower than last week; Qilu 1712 quoted at 9,650 yuan/ton; Qilu 1712 quoted 250 yuan/ton lower than last week.
Cis-butadiene rubber: This week, the domestic mainstream ex-factory price of high-cis-butadiene rubber is stable; the domestic mainstream ex-factory price of high-cis-butadiene rubber is stable in the range of 10600-10800 yuan/ton; only CNOOC Northeast Sales Company returns to the mainstream price and adjusts it. Mainstream offer prices fell to the range of 10800-11100 yuan/ton, which is different from last week’s decline of 100-400 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, the external market is high, Sinopec’s price is rising and its supply is limited. On the negative side, the overall decline of the cis-butadiene rubber industry led to a negative downstream mentality. Although Sinopec and external prices are high, and the market is difficult to replenish shipments, which supports some businesses’mentality, the short-term northern export manufacturers’ business is not smooth, dragging down the supply price, the initial decline of the market, downstream wait-and-see mentality is more obvious. At the same time, with the restart of Sirbang Petrochemical Plant and the steady operation of Nanjing Chengzhi, the overall market supply is expected to increase significantly. Business analysts expect that the domestic butadiene market will continue to decline weakly next week. It is suggested that attention be paid to supplier prices and transaction conditions.

Commodity Index: On August 9, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 100.41, which was the same as yesterday. It was 6.27% lower than the peak of 107.13 points in the cycle (2019-05-08), and 4.90% higher than the low of 95.72 points on April 10, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Price quotation: According to the monitoring data of business association (100ppi.com), on August 1, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cationic) market was about 16466.67 yuan/ton, and on the 9th, 16433.33 yuan/ton. This week, the market showed a slight downward trend. At present, the main quotation range of domestic market of polyacrylamide is: cationic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is about 16200-18100 yuan/ton, anionic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is about 10000-12100 yuan/ton. In late last month, some markets were affected by the notice of environmental shutdown. Some manufacturers in Gongyi City stopped production. Some manufacturers had sufficient supply of goods. Some manufacturers reported that prices would rise in the future. However, the market outside Henan was not affected much. On the premise of stable downstream demand, prices fell somewhat this week.

Industry chain: It is known that the price of acrylonitrile in the upstream is about 11750 yuan/ton on the 5th day of this week, and 12000 yuan/ton on the 9th day, with a weekly increase of about 2.13%. The downstream demand has not changed much. It is understood that the current production of polyacrylamide manufacturers is normal, this week the upstream and downstream has little impact on it.

Industry: On July 26, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises of Yongan Road Street Office in Gongyi City, Henan Province, received the “stop-production notice”. The notice requests that according to the analysis of the environmental pollution situation and the future polluted weather situation in the whole city, the city attack and fortification office require all the deep treatment enterprises to stop production and control before acceptance, and dispatch or control according to fortification or fortification. After acceptance, it can be returned to production. Gongyi City, Henan Province, issued a circular on the deep management of enterprise shutdown management (see below): ___________.

Future Market Forecast: At present, there is no market expectation that some manufacturers in the early stage believe that the price of products will rise frequently and the range is “hard to say” during the shutdown period, and the output of some local manufacturers is not affected. Some of the major quotation companies currently monitored by business associations are in normal start-up and good supply. They continue to pay attention to the follow-up market changes under environmental protection requirements.

1. Melamine price trend:

According to the data of business associations, as of August 9, the market price of melamine had been lowered. At present, the mainstream price of melamine in China is 5400-6000 yuan/ton, which is 3.12% lower than that at the beginning of the week.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Melamine market price down. At present, the downstream demand of some production enterprises has not been substantially improved, the market lacks strong favorable factors to support, and the overall wait-and-see atmosphere of the melamine market remains unchanged. At present, the market reference price of melamine in Xinjiang is around 5200 yuan/ton, that in Sichuan is around 5500 yuan/ton, and that in Henan is around 5700 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The upstream urea market has fallen again and again in recent March. On May 1, 2019, the average price quoted by the main urea producers in Shandong Province was 230.00 yuan/ton, while on August 9, the average price quoted by urea producers was 1868.33 yuan/ton, down 161.67 yuan/ton, or 7.96%.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 31 st week of 2019 (8.5-8.9), there were 16 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 2 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (12.69%), acetic anhydride (10.50%) and butadiene (4.20%). There are 36 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-22.73%), sulfur (-5.81%) and propylene (-4.45%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.41%.

3. Future market forecast:

Melamine analysts believe that the fall of urea upstream, the cost of melamine negative, downstream demand is weak, the overall trading climate is weak, it is expected that in the short term, the market of melamine will be mainly weak operation, more attention still needs to be paid to the start-up rate of production enterprises.