1、 Price trend

Market analysis of potash products

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average factory price of light potash in China this week is 6325.00 yuan / ton, including tax, which is stable. The current price is 7.66% lower than last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the market of potassium carbonate is stable this week. The production of domestic potassium chloride in the upstream raw materials is normal. The import port of potassium chloride has a large number of new sources of goods in the bonded area. The market shows a weak downward trend, which has no supporting effect on the price of potassium carbonate. The market of potassium carbonate is weak downward this week. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of potassium carbonate market is general, the demand side is weak, and the actual transaction is not active The purchase of tourism is mainly based on rigid demand, and the domestic market of potassium carbonate is stable. According to the statistics of the business agency, the main quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6100-6500 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of potash, the upstream potash market is facing three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. Unable to support the cost of potash, it is expected that the price of potash will be weak in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analyst of the business association, for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

On April 2, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the United States rose sharply, with the main contract at 25.32 yuan / barrel, or US $5.01. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, the main contract at $29.94/barrel, up $5.20. WTI and Brent recorded the biggest daily gains, both exceeding 25%. The main reason is that U.S. President trump said publicly that he expects Russia and Saudi Arabia to announce substantial cuts in crude oil production, and Saudi official media reported that Saudi Arabia is calling for an emergency meeting of oil producing countries to deal with market turbulence.

On the 2 day, Trump said he had held talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed, who had also talked with Russian President Putin about the price dispute between Russia and Saudi Arabia by telephone. Trump expects Saudi Arabia and Russia to announce a reduction of oil production from 10 million to 15 million barrels per day. The two countries are willing to reach an agreement.

In addition, Saudi media reported that Saudi Arabia called for an OPEC emergency meeting. The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia would consider reducing its daily production to about 9 million barrels per day, about 3 million barrels per day less than planned in April. This news, combined with Trump’s Twitter information, led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. WTI rose to $27.39/barrel at one time, an increase of more than 35%.

But then the market calmed down gradually and crude oil recovered some of its gains, mainly because market participants questioned whether Russia and Saudi Arabia could really reach an agreement on such a large-scale production reduction. At present, the specific details of Saudi Arabia and Russia’s production reduction are still unclear in the market. Besides OPEC +, it is still unknown whether other crude oil producers can participate in the production reduction in coordination. The division of market share makes it difficult for multiple interests to reach a consistent balance.

In the future, in the view of the business community, the global demand is still the decisive factor restricting the oil price. At present, the demand for crude oil has dropped by 20-30 million barrels / day. Moreover, in the short term, the epidemic has not been any good, especially in Europe and the United States. At the same time, the region is also the region with the largest demand for crude oil before the epidemic. The decline in demand is still continuing, and it is difficult for the oil price to have Too much improvement, even if Russia and Saudi Arabia have reached a new consistent production reduction agreement, it may be hard to make up for the share of the current decline in demand. In addition, the current market crude oil storage has reached a saturation state. It is reported that the global crude oil storage capacity will be exhausted after six weeks. In a comprehensive consideration, the rebound of oil price may only be a short-term behavior, and whether it can continue to rebound in the later period remains to be verified, The rebound range is not optimistic, and the medium and long-term oil price will still run at a low level.

London, March 31 – London Metal Exchange copper rose Tuesday after data showed a surprise rebound in factory activity in China, but recorded its biggest quarterly decline since 2011 as a result of a massive global economic halt caused by the coronavirus epidemic, reducing demand for metals.

At 17:00 on March 31, London time (00:00 on April 1, Beijing time), LME three-month copper rose 3.8% to $4951 per ton, the highest since March 18. But it fell about 20% in the first quarter.

Other industrial metals fell between 10% and 20% in the first quarter.

Copper prices recovered last week as global stock markets stabilised, the dollar weakened and some mines were closed due to the coronavirus outbreak.

But Kieran Clancy, an analyst at capital economics, said the impact of the coronavirus epidemic on demand would overshadow its impact on supply.

He said copper could fall to $4000 in the second quarter. “Things will get worse before they get better, and part of the improvement depends on the lifting of these epidemic control measures.”

China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ index (PMI), the world’s largest consumer of metals, rose to 52 in March from a record low of 35.7 in February, but analysts warned that China’s sustained economic recovery in the short term was far from certain.

China’s economy is likely to grow by only 0.1% this year, the world bank said on Monday. China’s slowdown in novel coronavirus may inhibit the demand for exports from other countries.

Clancy of Kaitou macro said that the copper market supply may be over 800000 tons this year.

He said China’s blockade is being lifted and supply is recovering faster than demand.

Jiangxi copper, China’s largest copper producer, said it planned to produce 1.65 million tons of cathode copper in 2020, up 6% from last year.

Chile’s copper output in February was 451580 tons, up 8.3% from a year earlier, the Chile Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday. The country is the world’s largest supplier of copper.

State owned polish copper group KGHM, one of the world’s leading producers of copper and silver, is now operating below break even as copper prices fall below $5000, Polish Prime Minister Vladimir moravitsky said on Monday.

Rio Tinto Ltd said Tuesday it would cut some operations of its tiwai smelter in New Zealand to ensure the health and safety of its workers and comply with government restrictions on the control of the new crown virus.

Vedanta zinc international, a division of Vedanta Resources, a diversified miner, said Monday it would suspend operations of its Skorpion zinc mine and refinery in Namibia.

Novel coronavirus pneumonia (Surigao del Norte) project in southern Philippines will be suspended from April 1st, mineral company said on Tuesday, as one of the measures to prevent the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.

LME three-month aluminum ended 0.3% lower at $1526 a tonne.

Three month zinc ended up 1.76% at $1905.50 a tonne.

Three month nickel ended up 1.45% at $11484 a tonne.

Three month lead ended up 2.2% at $1741.50 a tonne.

Three month tin rose 0.7% to $14602 a tonne.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline in March. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2000-2050 yuan / ton; in Shandong, about 2150-2300 yuan / ton; in Hebei, about 2300-2350 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi, about 2080 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu, about 2150-2250 yuan / ton; in Zhejiang, about 2300-2400 yuan / ton; in South China The regional delivery price is about 2300-2400 yuan / ton.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: in March, the domestic acetic acid market as a whole continued to decline. In the middle of March, the spot supply of acetic acid was tightened due to the centralized overhaul of acetic acid enterprises, and the price of acetic acid slightly recovered. The increase of each enterprise was about 50 yuan / ton. With the completion of the overhaul, the spot supply of the market was abundant, but the downstream market demand did not improve. In addition, the closure of India led to export orders Sharp decline, acetic acid production enterprise inventory gradually accumulated, sales pressure increased, and then let the profit shipping.

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the production and sales of regional manufacturers in the domestic methanol market are basically balanced, and the inventory is kept within the controllable range, but the demand side is still insufficient, at present, about 1605 yuan / ton; the domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and other industries continue to be weak, the terminal demand is low, the market is light, and the pessimism spreads; with the continuous decline of international oil price and the purchase in the downstream market The PTA spot market continued to plummet, with low prices, unbalanced market supply and demand, insufficient cost collapse, and high downstream inventory.

International: the acetic acid Market in North America is affected by the overall weakness of the methanol and chemical industry, which has fallen sharply in the month, currently around 450 US dollars / ton; the demand in Asia is insufficient due to the impact of the epidemic in India, which has fallen sharply as a whole, and the current price is around 275-330 US dollars / ton; the European acetic acid market is affected by the downward trend of the methanol market, which is weak in the month, and the current price is 570 euros / ton left Right.

3、 Future forecast

According to the acetic acid analyst of business association, with the recovery of production of overhaul enterprises, the market operation rate gradually picks up, the pressure on sales and inventory of enterprises increases sharply, the downstream market starts not high, the demand is weak, the contradiction between market supply and demand is highlighted again, and it is expected that the future market will still be weak.

In order to better prevent the epidemic and control the entry of foreign people, many countries have chosen to close all foreign transportation lines, including highways, railways and airlines. Malaysia is one of them. On March 16, 2020, Malaysia announced the closure of the city. Since March 18, 2020, it has taken two weeks of strict restrictions nationwide to strengthen the prevention and control of public health events. On March 18, 2020, Penang Port of Malaysia announced that it would no longer accept the transit of Thai goods. As a big producer of natural rubber, Malaysia’s “closure” means that natural rubber cannot be exported on time. As an important raw material of tires – rubber, how will this affect the tire market in China?

1. Malaysia’s position in the global natural rubber Market

In the past five years, the annual output of natural rubber in Malaysia has shown a downward trend as a whole, reaching a climax in 2015 and occupying 5.89% of the global natural rubber. Then, the global output share has gradually declined. In 2018, the decline is relatively serious. In 2019, the output is about 650000 tons, accounting for 4.55% of the global natural rubber output. In 2019, Malaysia ranks the 7th in the world’s major producing countries. The implementation of “closure” in Malaysia will have an impact on the world The market of natural rubber has great influence and impact.

2. Impact of Malaysia’s “closure” on China’s rubber Market

China’s imports from Malaysia fell for two consecutive years after peaking in 2017. In 2019, China’s imports from Malaysia reached 699000 tons, accounting for 13.28% of China’s total natural rubber imports.

The average monthly import volume of China from Malaysia in 2017-2019 is about 65000 tons, and the temporary “closure” of Malaysia for two weeks may directly reduce the import volume of China from Malaysia by about 35000-35000 tons. As can be seen from the figure, except for the relatively small amount of imports in February, other months are relatively balanced.

3. What is the impact of Malaysia’s “closure” on the tire market

Malaysia is a big country in the production of natural rubber. The annual output of China’s imported natural rubber from Malaysia is not small. Although the date of unsealing has not been determined, but at present, the first two months are affected by the epidemic situation. Although the enterprise delays the start-up and the production is greatly reduced, the domestic demand is also reduced. The reduction in the import of raw materials has not yet led to the production of domestic tires Influence. At present, China’s domestic natural rubber non-state storage inventory is up to about 1.53 million tons, which can meet the domestic normal production for more than three months. However, if the time for countries to unseal is too long and domestic demand grows gradually, it may have some impact.

70% of natural rubber in China is used to make new tyres every year. China’s tire consumption accounts for one third of the global tire consumption, while China’s tire production exceeds half of the global tire production. Therefore, China is the world’s largest consumer of natural rubber. China’s natural rubber consumption increased from 2.69 million tons in 2007 to 4.8 million tons in 2014.

The postponement of downstream plant construction and the limitation of logistics and transportation will affect the consumption of natural rubber, thus forming a direct negative impact on the market. In January and February, the downstream production is restricted, which will reduce the consumption of rubber raw materials. Secondly, strict traffic control, reduced personnel flow, multiple high-speed road closures, and logistics restrictions will also reduce the tire consumption, the largest downstream product of natural rubber, which will pose a negative drag on the demand market of Tianjiao. As the largest importer of natural rubber, in order to avoid the Spring Festival holiday, the original import sources are mostly concentrated in February to March. With the extension of the holiday, the arrival time of cargo may be more compact. But fortunately, the epidemic situation in China has been well controlled and the market is slowly recovering.

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, on March 27, at the weekend, the domestic adipic acid market was still weak. Compared with the market at the beginning of the week, the market did not improve, and the price change was not big. Some dealers’ quotations were slightly loose, with a range of 50-100 yuan / ton. According to the business club’s monitoring, on March 27, the quotation range was 0.55% lower than that at the beginning of the week. At present, the general quotation range of the market is 7600-7900 yuan / ton. Dealers have generally resumed shipment, but they still haven’t reached the normal level of shipment. Influenced by the continuous downward trend of crude oil price, the chemical industry has been under pressure, the price continues to decline, and adipic acid is difficult to be alone and maintain the downturn trend. At present, the transportation situation in the market is obviously improved, but it is trapped in the weak downstream demand, the delivery situation is not ideal, the inventory is difficult to digest, the manufacturers have a lot of inventory pressure, dealers generally go with the market, purchase on demand, and the inventory pressure is OK. At present, the manufacturer’s operating rate remains stable, especially due to the impact of lower external demand and large export pressure, which does not rule out the possibility of higher inventory in the later period.

In the later stage, the business community predicted that the current chemical cost end crude oil price continued to operate at a very low level, which was negative for the entire chemical industry chain. In addition, due to the weak market demand, adipic acid should maintain a downturn in the near future.

1、 Price trend

Price: the main quotation of GPPS is 8500-9900 yuan / ton, and that of hips is 9200-10900 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

PS Market: the overall performance of the PS market is relatively flat, with some small losses. In the overall weak demand environment, the market is generally closed, the downstream factories are limited in receiving goods, and the atmosphere of on-site trading is flat.

3、 Future forecast

The overall situation of PS transaction is not good, downstream factories continue to purchase on demand, and the overall transaction is not ideal. The merchant goes with the goods, and the transaction is a little discount.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, the overall price of domestic n-propanol market is stable this week, with some traders’ quotations slightly fluctuating. On March 19, according to the average comprehensive quotation of sample enterprises, at present, the reference quotation of domestic n-propanol containing packaging is around 9400-10200 yuan / ton, and the low-end price of bulk water is around 8300-8500 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the market of n-propanol fluctuated slightly, and the overall trend is still stable temporarily. The upstream cost support surface of n-propanol market is weak, the downstream demand is general, and the market is weak. In the near future, the manufacturers follow the market and make goods, and the quotation is relatively stable. At present, there are many kinds of production processes in domestic n-propanol enterprises. Nanjing Noor new materials and Nanjing Rongxin chemical industry are mainly ethylene process. Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. has normal operation of n-propanol production plant. The ex factory quotation of n-propanol purified water is 8500 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable. All dealers of n-propanol offer different prices, but at present the overall price tends to be stable with little fluctuation. In order to stimulate the market, some dealers adjust their prices slightly. At present, the quotation of domestic n-propanol dealers is around 9400-10200 yuan / ton (in barrels); the quotation of imported n-propanol is around 11000-12000 yuan / ton (in barrels). In view of the dealer’s reservation on the price, the price is not easy to monitor, leading to specific negotiations or differences, and there are also differences in each region, with single negotiation as the main part.

Industrial chain: on March 18, the market price of propylene in Shandong still fell. In March, the price of propylene in Shandong began to decline. On the first day, the price of some enterprises picked up slightly. On the second day, the price of the whole line rose slightly. On the third day and the fourth day, the price of most enterprises generally rose. On the fifth day, the price of some enterprises increased by about 50-100 yuan / ton. On the sixth day, the price of enterprises fluctuated up and down, but the range was small. On the tenth day, the price generally fell by 50-100 yuan / ton. On the eleventh day, the price slightly fell by 50 yuan / ton. On the twelfth day, the price of some enterprises rose slightly There was a slight decline of 50-100 yuan / ton, and the price fell by 200-300 yuan / ton on the 13th. On the 16th, the price was stable, and on the 17th and 18th, the price dropped continuously. At present, the market turnover is 5750-6300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 5750-5800 yuan / ton. Influenced by OPEC meeting and various international economic policies, international crude oil rose and fell sharply; prices fell again on the 16th and slightly on the 17th. Due to the low production and inventory before propylene, the decline in the early stage is not significant, and the follow-up trend in the later stage is also obvious. It is expected that the price of propylene in the later stage will be affected by crude oil, or there will be a short-term stable market.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of the business agency, at present, the market of n-propanol is relatively stable, and the subsequent price trend changes need to pay more attention to the price changes of raw materials and the overall delivery situation of the market.

1、 Price trend

The price of pure benzene fell again this week, down 17.95% from last week, after falling 9.13% last week, according to the data in the business club’s large list. This week, the price of pure benzene fell for two consecutive times. Last Friday (March 13), the price of pure benzene was 4350-4900 yuan / ton (average price 4680 yuan / ton), and this Friday, the price of pure benzene was 3500-4200 yuan / ton (average price 3840 yuan / ton), down 17.95% from last week. Wednesday and Thursday saw two significant declines, 8.55% and 9.4% respectively.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: this week, the price center of pure benzene moved down again, and the port inventory accumulated slightly. As of March 20, Sinopec has adjusted the listing price of pure benzene four times this month, with a total reduction of 1650 yuan / ton. On March 3, the price of pure benzene was slightly and tentatively lowered; on October 10, 18 and 19, the listing price of pure benzene was significantly reduced, with a total decrease of 1450 yuan / ton, or 28.63%. At the beginning of the month, the average listing price of pure benzene was 5380.2 yuan / ton, and on the 20th, the average listing price was 3840 yuan / ton, down 28.63%. Sinopec lowered the listing price of pure benzene on Tuesday, which exceeded market expectations, leading to weak market negotiations. In addition, the import of pure benzene fell sharply, and the market was in a bad mood.

3. Outside: this week, South Korea’s import of pure benzene fell 96.67 US dollars / ton, down 18.59%; East China’s import of pure benzene fell 112 US dollars / ton, down 20.66%. Deep fall in the external market, greatly negative domestic pure benzene, internal and external arbitrage open.

3. Crude oil: Saudi Arabia and Russia insist on reducing prices and increasing production. This week, oil prices continue to decline without any sign of suspension, driving commodities down. Oil prices rebounded strongly Thursday on news that the US might intervene in the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Brent fell 6.465% and WTI fell 6.2% compared with March 13. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 61.99% and WTI by 57.36%.

4. Downstream industry: styrene inventory pressure is high this week, coupled with cost pressure, and prices continue to weaken. The price of styrene in Shandong was 6250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 5633.33 yuan / ton on Friday, down 9.87% from last week.

Affected by inventory pressure and cost, aniline prices were lowered at the beginning of the week, and later enterprises showed a wait-and-see trend. On Friday, the price in Shandong was 5900 yuan / ton, down 4.84% from last Friday; in Nanjing, it was 6150 yuan / ton, down 4.65% from last Friday.

3、 Future forecast

1. Crude oil: next week’s crude oil is still short of a sharp pick-up. However, we need to pay attention to the possible US intervention in the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia and the key supporting position of US $20 / barrel.

2. Market: the downstream products are dragged down by the weak terminal demand, the release of inventory is slow, and the pure benzene market continues to be negative. In the near future, the internal and external arbitrage has been opened, and the subsequent Southeast Asian low-cost goods sources or arbitrage into China; in addition, the pure benzene plant has gradually increased its load, and the subsequent contradiction between supply and demand is more prominent.

Under the short-term contradiction between supply and demand, it is difficult for pure benzene to improve substantially. It is expected that pure benzene will reach a new low.

1、 Price trend

Market analysis of potash products

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average factory price of domestic light potash at the beginning of the week was 6325.00 yuan / ton, while the average factory price of domestic light potash at the end of the week was 6300.00 yuan / ton, a drop of 0.4%. The current price was 8.36% lower than last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the market of potassium carbonate fell slightly this week. The domestic potassium chloride Market of upstream raw materials was in a state of relative panic. The imported potassium fell slightly, and the market price continued to decline, which had no supporting effect on the price of potassium carbonate. The market of potassium carbonate fell weakly this week. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of potassium carbonate market was tepid, the activity was low, and the demand end was weak , the actual market volume is insufficient, the downstream procurement maintains rigid demand, and the domestic potassium carbonate market falls. According to the statistics of the business agency, the main quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6100-6500 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of potash of business association, in the near future, industry insiders, especially downstream factories, are not optimistic about the late market of potassium chloride, unable to support the cost of potash. It is expected that the price of potash will be weak in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analyst of the business association, for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).