Market Overview: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 2, 2024, the reference price for the pure polyester yarn market in Shandong Province was reported at 12475 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; The reference price for polyester cotton yarn market is 17260 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.

This week’s market situation: Downstream restocking has basically ended this week (1.27-2.2), yarn factory sales are coming to an end, trading is gradually stagnant, yarn inventory has dropped to a temporary low point, and the pressure on yarn factories has eased. The start-up of yarn enterprises has significantly decreased. Some enterprises plan to have a holiday in early February, while others plan to start around December 28th. After the new year, the start-up time will be concentrated after the eighth day of the first lunar month in Fujian. Due to rainy and snowy weather in many parts of the country in the coming week, some textile enterprises have not yet reached a unified holiday time, but many workers have returned home, resulting in a shutdown rate of 25%. The operating rate of large yarn factories is basically stable, with an average of 80% to 90% in Xinjiang and around 80-90% in Henan. The average operating rate of large yarn factories in the Yangtze River regions of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Anhui is 80-90%.

Textile companies offer less, with the mainstream T32S ring spinning in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions at around 11800 tons, the mainstream of 50S at around 15450 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of 32S at around 10500 yuan/ton. The mainstream price for Fujian Changle T32S is 13000 yuan/ton.

Polyester cotton yarn is gradually coming to an end, with low trading volume. The price of polyester cotton yarn in Shandong region is stable. The mainstream price for ring spinning TC65/35 32S is 15800-16500 yuan/ton including tax for short delivery, while CVC60/40 32S is priced at 19200-19700 yuan/ton. The reference price for T/C 65/35 32S centers in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 16550 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: In the near future, downstream textile factories will begin to experience regional holidays, and there will be more shutdowns of textile and dyeing factories in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets, such as Shaoxing, with yarn shipments gradually stopping. At the end of January, the operating rate of the yarn factory accelerated its decline, orders came to an end, trading was light, and logistics basically stopped. The yarn price is running steadily, and the pre holiday market has basically ended. According to analysts from Business Society, overall, with the arrival of the Spring Festival next week, the prices of pure polyester and polyester cotton yarn in the market will remain stable, in a state of price without market.

According to the commodity market analysis system, from January 29th to February 4th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 6437 yuan/ton to 6425 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.19%, a month on month decrease of 3.20%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.29%. Many traders have left the market, and there has been little change in the prices quoted by production enterprises. At present, the demand is average, the cost support for ethanol is insufficient, and domestic ethanol prices are weak, resulting in slow shipments.

On the cost side, the domestic corn market continues to be weak. The continued weakness of corn prices has led to an increase in the intention of grain trading entities to liquidate their exports. The domestic corn market supply has continued to be loose, and corn prices continue to operate weakly under pressure. The cost side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rate of production enterprises in different regions, with 25.68% operating in the East China region; 83.12% of construction started in the Northeast region; The operating rate in South China and Southwest China is 23.16%; Short term domestic ethanol production and stable food supply in Northeast China, waiting for news from factories or whether there is a shift in production. Ethanol production in East China remains low in the short term. Coal based ethanol supply is stable. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintain normal production status. Short term recovery of large factory facilities. Baijiu just needs to be purchased. Downstream multi-dimensional holding of essential orders is the main focus, and short-term ethanol demand is mixed.

According to future market forecasts, as the Spring Festival approaches, corn ethanol enterprises in the Northeast region will resume normal production. However, logistics are gradually being closed, and downstream stocking is nearing completion. The market is about to enter a stagnant state. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will be mainly focused on consolidation and observation.

This week, the price trend of domestic fluorite has slightly declined. As of the weekend, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3343.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% from the beginning of the week’s price of 3356.25 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 6.15%.

Supply side: Fluorite enterprises are gradually on holiday, and the market is weak and stable

The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is the tension in upstream mining, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are conducting safety hazard inspections. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, In addition, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, some enterprises are gradually taking a break, and the price of fluorite has slightly decreased.

On the demand side: The market for hydrofluoric acid is declining, and refrigerant production is at a low level

This week, the domestic price trend of hydrofluoric acid has declined, with mainstream prices negotiated in various regions of the country ranging from 10000 to 10300 yuan/ton. The hydrofluoric acid market has continued to decline this week, with some units still in shutdown. There has been little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, and manufacturers have fewer orders for hydrofluoric acid. The decline in hydrofluoric acid prices is detrimental to the domestic fluorite market. Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase on demand, but downstream business is not good, resulting in a slight decline in the domestic fluorite market.

The market for some downstream refrigerant products is temporarily stable, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. The procurement of raw materials is not active, and the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high. Downstream procurement needs to follow up, and some production enterprises are gradually accumulating inventory. In the new year, supply is gradually reduced, reducing supply pressure. There is insufficient demand for dealer procurement, and the price of R22 is mainly maintained at a low level. The quota cycle in the refrigerant market has begun, and it is difficult for enterprises to change their reluctance to sell. The quota for R134a in China is relatively tight, and some manufacturers have raised their factory prices. Currently, the market quotation for R134a refrigerant is mostly in the range of 28000 to 29000 yuan/ton. The overall transaction volume in the refrigerant industry is relatively flat, and the production in the refrigerant industry remains sluggish with average demand. The price of fluorite has slightly decreased.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the driving force of demand in new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market trend is still promising.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines. Some mines have stopped production and are undergoing safety inspections. However, fluorite enterprises are gradually taking a break and are temporarily not shipping. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market trend is declining. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that the fluorite market price may remain stable in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices dropped significantly in January. The price of hydrochloric acid decreased from 112.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 92.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 17.78%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 39.94% year-on-year.

On January 31, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 24.34, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 82.35% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 35.37% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

From the supply side, domestic hydrochloric acid factory prices have fluctuated this month, and manufacturers have limited inventory.

Cost side: The price of liquid chlorine has significantly increased

From a cost perspective, the upstream liquid chlorine market for hydrochloric acid saw a significant increase in January, with an overall increase of 100 yuan/ton. Cost support is good.

Demand side: Downstream demand weakens

From the perspective of downstream demand, the liquid ammonia and alternative support for ammonium chloride raw materials have weakened, coupled with continued loose supply and difficulty in significantly increasing demand in the short term. In January, the ammonium chloride market fell sharply, with market prices dropping from 662.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 627.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.28%, and a year-on-year decrease of 46.27% at the end of the month. The downstream market situation has significantly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing hydrochloric acid.

Looking at the future: In mid to early February, the hydrochloric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream liquid chlorine price has significantly increased, with good cost support. However, the downstream ammonium chloride market has experienced a significant decline, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent market for hydrochloric acid may experience a slight fluctuation and decline.

Review of toluene market in 2023

In 2023, the toluene market fluctuated upwards. According to the bulk list data from Business Society, the benchmark price of toluene in the market was 6570 yuan/ton on December 31, an increase of 10.98% from 5920 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. The highest point for the year appeared in September at 8400 yuan/ton.

The international crude oil range fluctuated from January to April, with some support for the cost of toluene; After the outbreak of the epidemic in the first half of the year, it was fully relaxed, and gasoline consumption was rapidly released. Downstream mixed blending demand and disproportionation operating load increased, supporting the demand for toluene. In addition, arbitrage activities between Asia and the United States led to an increase in external prices, which also drove up the price of toluene; Taking into account the above factors, the toluene market has seen a significant increase from January to April.

The continued interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in mid to late April have had negative feedback on the economy, with a bleak outlook for global demand and an increased risk of economic recession. The price of crude oil has dropped significantly, and the cost of toluene has declined. As the price of toluene rises, there is resistance from downstream towards high priced goods, and the demand side is gradually weakening. The price of toluene wants to slightly decline.

Starting from mid to late May, due to centralized maintenance of multiple devices, the supply of toluene is tight, but the demand side is still weak, resulting in a narrow range of fluctuations in the toluene market as a whole.

On the one hand, the consumption tax on various products such as mixed aromatic hydrocarbons was levied in the third quarter, which played a certain boosting role in the toluene market. In addition, North American mixed blending remained strong for a long time, and toluene exports were active. In the context of OPEC+continuing to reduce production, coupled with the United States entering summer, the driving season is the peak season for refined oil consumption. With the support of tight supply and strong demand in the market, oil prices continue to rise, and the cost of the toluene market has significantly increased, The toluene market has risen again.

In the fourth quarter, on the one hand, domestic gasoline consumption has entered the off-season, and the demand for blending has also decreased, resulting in weak overall demand for toluene. On the other hand, the high level of the international crude oil market has significantly declined, and the cost center of toluene has significantly shifted, causing the price of toluene to continue to decline.

Outlook on toluene market in 2024

Cost side: International crude oil price center expects a slight increase in toluene cost side, supported by expectations

The external environment in which crude oil operates in 2024 is still quite complex, with a complex geopolitical situation and constant conflicts. This will have an unpredictable direct impact on oil prices, resulting in even more drastic fluctuations. In the long run, the supply-demand game remains dominant, and on the supply side, OPEC’s production control will continue to play a role in managing oil price expectations. The demand side faces more uncertainty, and an economic slowdown is likely to create a constraint on oil prices. According to the EIA report in December, the EIA lowered its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in 2024 to $83 per barrel, a decrease of $10 per barrel compared to the November forecast. Overall, due to the large number of oil price variables in 2023, oil prices have been operating at low levels for a long time, and the base oil price is not high. It is expected that the average oil price in 2024 may still be slightly higher than in 2023, but due to demand constraints, oil prices will not increase significantly.

Supply side: It is expected that the supply side of toluene will continue to increase in 2024

In 2023, the domestic supply capacity of toluene has increased, with a total of approximately 2.49 million tons of new production capacity, reaching 18.63 million tons per year, a year-on-year increase of 9.91%. Due to the addition of new facilities for toluene production in China in 2024, as well as the development direction of reducing oil and increasing chemical production, as well as the impact of years of strict consumer tax policies, the willingness of main and local refining companies to export toluene has increased. Therefore, in 2024, production enterprises will pay more attention to the toluene commodity market and increase their enthusiasm for export. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic supply of toluene will continue to rise.

Demand side: Slow growth rate of toluene market demand in 2024

Toluene is one of the main downstream consumers of gasoline mixtures. Gasoline mixtures are the largest consumer area of toluene, accounting for 52% of total consumption. Toluene, as an octane enhancing agent, can improve the combustion performance of gasoline, reduce exhaust emissions, and meet national environmental protection requirements. With the increase in domestic car ownership, the consumption of gasoline has also increased, which has driven an increase in demand for toluene. However, due to the improvement in the quality of domestic gasoline, the proportion of toluene added has decreased. In addition, with the continued increase in the proportion of new energy passenger vehicles, the demand for toluene in gasoline mixtures has grown relatively slowly. In addition, one of the downstream industries, TDI, currently has no new production capacity, and the growth rate of demand for other solvent chemical products is expected to decrease. However, with the increase in production capacity of disproportionation units, the demand for disproportionation is expected to increase next year, but the important direction of the market will still be export-oriented.

Market forecast: According to toluene analysts from Business Society, the international crude oil price is expected to fluctuate slightly in 2024, with support for the cost of toluene. The supply of toluene is expected to increase, and downstream consumption growth is slow. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market will fluctuate in a range in 2024.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market for locally refined hydrogenated naphtha has continued to rise recently. As of January 29th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8079.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.76% from January 22nd at 7939.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined hydrogenated naphtha is around 8000-8100 yuan/ton.

Recently, the market for locally refined straight run naphtha has continued to rise. As of January 29th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 7989.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.75% from January 22nd at 7854.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight run naphtha is around 7900-8000 yuan/ton.

In recent times, the demand for local refining terminals has been strong, and refineries have actively pushed up prices, resulting in good transactions; At present, the overall weakness of the gasoline and diesel market has limited support for the naphtha market.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has recently risen, and the International Energy Agency predicts that global demand will increase. Coupled with the low levels of commercial crude oil inventories in the United States, international crude oil futures prices will rebound.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of Business Society, the market for toluene and mixed xylene continues to rise. Currently, international crude oil prices fluctuate widely, with cost support. Downstream demand support is weak in the off-season, and toluene port inventories have increased and production has slightly increased. Pressure on the supply side of toluene remains. The PX price trend is stable, and the domestic PX operating rate remains above 80%. Downstream support for the naphtha market.

Market forecast: The international crude oil market is fluctuating and rising, with cost support in the naphtha market; The local refined naphtha market is expected to continue to rise in the near future, as refineries are actively driving up demand for ethylene and reforming at the local refined naphtha terminal.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 29th, the average price quoted by formic acid companies was 3150.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price on January 1st.

The domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market remained stable in January. The price of raw material sulfuric acid steadily declined during the month, while the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and rose. The price of raw materials fluctuated, and its impact on the formic acid market was limited. In the middle of the month, the main manufacturers mainly produce normally, and downstream pre holiday stocking is followed up as needed. Market trading is stable and orderly, and distributors actively ship and follow the market. The mainstream quotation range is stable, and the market price of industrial grade 85% formic acid is mostly around 3000-3500 yuan/ton.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost support is still acceptable, and market transactions are in high demand. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

Introduction: Isooctanol generally refers to 2-ethylhexanol, which is a colorless, clear, and flammable liquid with a special odor. Mainly used for the production of dioctyl phthalate (DOP), dioctyl acetate (DOA), trioctyl phthalate (TOTM), other plasticizers, octyl acrylate, surfactants, lubricant additives, mining, diesel engine fuel additives, solvents and formulations, rust inhibitor esters, and other chemicals.

In 2023, the market situation of isooctanol in Shandong Province fluctuated and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the Shandong Isooctanol market will experience a wide range of fluctuations and increases in 2023. The average price at the beginning of the year was 9733.33 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 12950 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 33.05%. From the price trend chart of isooctanol, it can be seen that the highest price of isooctanol in 2023 was 13100 yuan/ton in late December, and the lowest price was 8660 yuan/ton in mid June, with a maximum annual amplitude of 51.27%.

From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that in 2023, the price of isooctanol increased more than decreased, and the market trend showed a wide range of fluctuations. The highest increase was 30.62% in August, and the highest decrease was 14.06% in February. In 2023, the equipment of isooctanol enterprises will continue to be shut down for maintenance, and the supply of isooctanol will be tight. Downstream plasticizer enterprises will start operating at a high level, and demand buying will stimulate the continuous rise of isooctanol prices. In the first half of 2023, iso octanol enterprises started at a high level, but in January, the main iso octanol manufacturers stopped for maintenance and stocked up before the year, resulting in an increase in iso octanol prices. In early May, due to an unexpected shutdown of iso octanol equipment in western Shandong, the price of iso octanol briefly surged. Afterwards, production capacity partially recovered, and the price of iso octanol returned to a low level. In August, multiple iso octanol manufacturers continuously shut down their equipment, causing the price of iso octanol to rise again and again; In October, Qilu Petrochemical equipment maintenance led to a further increase in the price of isooctanol; In December, Qilu Petrochemical’s isooctanol equipment was shut down due to an accident, and the price of isooctanol skyrocketed. The start date of the accident is uncertain, and the price of isooctanol has stabilized at a high level in the short term.

How will the isooctanol market develop in 2024?

From the perspective of production capacity: According to data, the total production capacity of isooctanol in 2023 was about 2.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. However, the production of iso octanol has been significantly reduced due to the unstable production of iso octanol, which has led to the frequent maintenance and shutdown of iso octanol enterprises. In 2024, new facilities such as satellite petrochemical may be put into operation in the second half of the year, and it is expected that the supply of isooctanol will remain tight in the first half of the year.

From the perspective of market demand, the plasticizer industry will lead the rise of the chemical sector in 2023. Affected by environmental and safety requirements, DBP production capacity and output have been shrinking year by year. However, due to its obvious price advantage, DBP still has a certain demand, and in recent years, DBP production has stabilized. DOP was originally the most widely used plasticizer, but in recent years, it has been affected by environmental restrictions on exports. In 2022, DOTP will replace DOP as the largest plasticizer product in China. It is expected that plasticizers will open high and close low in 2024.

From the perspective of imports and exports: According to customs data, the total import volume of isooctanol in China in 2023 was 313500 tons, an increase of about 160000 tons or 96.00% compared to the total import volume in 2022. The total export volume of isooctanol in 2023 was 25400 tons, a decrease of 46500 tons compared to the total export volume in 2022, with a decrease of 64.67%. The release of new production capacity in the second half of 2024 is expected to further increase the export volume in 2024.

Looking at the future market: supply is tight in the first half of the year, production capacity is released in the second half of the year, and the isooctanol market may show a trend of first rising and then falling in 2024

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has recently risen. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8550.00 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8680.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.52%. The price has increased by 1.92% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has risen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly fluctuating and consolidating in the past three months, with a slight increase in the market this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased, and cost support is still acceptable. The styrene unit has been repaired, and the supply has been temporarily reduced. The styrene market transactions are still good, and the market has slightly increased.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week, with Sinopec’s pure benzene price at 7850 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions have also increased by 450 yuan/ton). The rise in crude oil has driven night trading negotiations between 7790-7830 yuan/ton, with East China pure benzene expected to be stronger.

On the downstream side, the prices of styrene in the three major downstream markets have fluctuated. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS was 9600 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, the average price of PS was 9566 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% and a decrease of 1.71% compared to the same period last year. PS cost support, with transactions mainly focused on essential purchases, and it is expected that the domestic PS (polystyrene) price may fluctuate in the short term.

The EPS market remained stable this week, with an average price of 10075.00 yuan/ton for ordinary materials over the weekend. EPS is affected by the upstream pull up, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved. It is expected that the domestic EPS market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has seen a slight increase. As of January 22, the average price of ABS products was 10762.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.69% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month. The overall strength of the upstream three materials of ABS has provided strong support for the cost side of ABS. It is expected that the ABS market will maintain a strong consolidation in the short term.

Recently, international oil prices have fallen and cost support has been poor. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for styrene spot goods has weakened, inventory has risen, and it is expected that the short-term volatility of the styrene market will mainly decrease.

Recent trends in urea prices

Under the weak support of raw material anthracite and the temporary lack of favorable downstream demand, the urea market price in Shandong fluctuated narrowly this week. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of urea in Shandong increased from 2461.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2465 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.14%, and the weekend price decreased by 10.23% year-on-year.

Details of domestic urea prices this week

From the supply side perspective: In the early stage, urea maintenance manufacturers resumed production, resulting in an increase in daily urea production. The data shows that the daily urea production in China is about 160000 tons, with coal urea enterprises operating at a rate of about 85% and gas urea enterprises operating at a rate of about 40%. The mainstream urea manufacturers in Shandong saw a slight increase in factory prices during the week.

Details of the price of Yangquan anthracite coal this week

Variety/ January 15th/ January 21st/ Changes

Anthracite coal (washed lump)/ 960 yuan/ton/ 960 yuan/ton/ None

From the upstream market perspective, there were ups and downs in the urea upstream market this week: the price of liquefied natural gas plummeted by 8.32%, and the weekend price fell by 17.16% year-on-year. Affected by rainy and snowy weather in some regions of China, market circulation is restricted, and liquid factory shipments are under pressure, leading to a continued decrease in liquid prices. The price of liquid ammonia increased by 2.93%, and the weekend price fell by 22.42% year-on-year. However, the prices of anthracite coal have remained low and have stabilized. Over the weekend, the price of Yangquan anthracite coal (washed lump) was 960 yuan/ton, indicating a continued weak trend in the coal market in the short term. Overall, there has been a significant drop in upstream raw material prices, which lacks support for urea prices.

From the perspective of downstream demand: agricultural demand is at the end of the off-season, while industrial demand follows the market. Composite fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises are operating at a low level, and some industries are gradually shutting down for holidays, with a focus on essential procurement. This week, the downstream price of melamine in urea has stabilized at a high level, with a price of 7450 yuan/ton. From the perspective of exports: Although there are still bids overseas, the impact of urea export policies on the domestic market is not significant.

Looking ahead, the urea market in Shandong may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in late January. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has significantly declined, and the cost support for urea is insufficient. Downstream industrial demand is mainly in demand, while agricultural demand has not yet recovered. In the second half of the year, gas companies will start construction one after another, and it is expected that Nissan will recover to some extent. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline.