From June 2 to June 10, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene was raised as a whole. It was 7345 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 7947 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a weekly increase of 8.2%.

On June 9, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $121.51/barrel, down US $0.60 or 0.5%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $123.07/barrel, down US $0.51 or 0.4%. The oil price is still running at a high point, with little change in supply and demand fundamentals. This was mainly driven by the sharp rise in refined oil products, and oil prices were supported by the expectation of tight supply and demand growth.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

June 6, 9500.,+200

June 8, 9700.,+200

June 10, 10000.,+300

Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene. On June 8, 2022, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton to 10000 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: HSBC Petrochemical offers 10000 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical offers 10003 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 10000 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical offers 9900 yuan / ton.

This week, the crude oil price rose as a whole, and the external price of pure benzene rose, which provided a good support for the fundamentals of the industrial chain. This week, Sinopec continuously raised the production price of pure benzene, which once again boosted market confidence, and local refining enterprises followed suit. Over the weekend, it was reported that an accident occurred in a factory in South Korea, resulting in the shutdown of about 380000 tons of pure benzene production capacity, and the market speculation was positive. This week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China fell significantly, and the overall support of the market was strong. However, Shandong was dragged down by poor downstream demand. Although the price rose positively this week, there was still a certain price difference with East China, and the actual transaction was weak. At present, the mainstream price of pure benzene in China is 8750-9350 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrogenated benzene fluctuates with that of pure benzene. At present, the market price in East China has risen to about 9200-9300 yuan / ton.

Buoyed by the favorable industrial chain, the bidding price of crude benzene market increased significantly this week. In Shandong Province, 7970 ~ 7975 yuan / ton was implemented. In terms of coking enterprises, the start-up was slightly lower this week, and the supply of crude benzene was slightly tight. After the first round of coke increase was implemented this week, the mentality of coking enterprises improved, and the start-up may be improved. In the downstream, the recent trend of hydrobenzene is good. Is the enterprise active in operation? The overall operating rate is more than 70%, and the demand for crude benzene is well supported. From the perspective of future market, at present, the fundamentals are favorable and the support is strong, and the downstream demand is OK, boosting the overall trend of the industrial chain. It is expected that the market will maintain a stable, medium and strong trend in the near future. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of international crude oil market, external market, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics, demand side changes, etc. on the price of pure benzene.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of June 14, the average price of melamine enterprises was 9356.67 yuan / ton, down 3.21% compared with last Tuesday (June 7), 9.16% compared with May 14, and 22.03% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently (6.8-6.14) the melamine market fell. Recently, the price of raw urea has risen, the cost support has risen, and the mentality of manufacturers has been supported. The operating rate of melamine has increased, but the demand side performance is poor, the enterprise sales are under pressure, the market trading atmosphere is flat, and the price of melamine is loose.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market was temporarily stable on June 14. On June 13, the reference price of urea was 3251.00, up 1.56% compared with June 1 (3201.00). From the perspective of supply, the daily output of urea is about 170000 tons, which is at a high level, but the factory inventory and social inventory are at a low level, and the supply of goods in some regions is tight.

Melamine analysts of business agency believe that at present, the raw material urea operates stably, which has certain support for the market. The operating rate of melamine is high, but the demand side is not followed up enough, and the supply and demand pattern is weak. It is expected that the melamine market may operate weakly and stably in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, as of June 12, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil was 6536.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 1.02% from 6470.00 yuan / ton on June 6.

On June 12, the fuel oil commodity index was 132.37, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a new high in the cycle, up 187.26% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

International crude oil prices rose, and the high price of domestic marine oil raw materials supported the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of June 12, the price of 180CST self raised low sulfur fuel oil and 120cst self raised low sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan was 6600 yuan / ton and 6650 yuan / ton respectively; The quotation for 180CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 6600 yuan / ton, and the quotation for 120cst self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6700 yuan / ton.

As the international crude oil price rises, the EU’s oil ban on sanctions against Russia has been delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remains unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. At present, it is in the peak season of traditional consumption of crude oil, and it is also a season of high incidence of extreme weather such as hurricanes. Crude oil has a great tendency to hit a new high again, and the rise of international oil prices is unabated.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, supporting fuel oil prices. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of June 8, Singapore’s medium distillate oil inventory fell by 194000 barrels to a five week low of 6.791 million barrels; Light distillate stocks fell by 139000 barrels to a three week low of 15.121 million barrels.

Future forecast: the price of raw materials in the domestic ship fuel market is high, the bidding price of asphalt and Fushun shale oil is rising, and the cost of the ship fuel market is under pressure. However, the market terminal demand is weak, the wait-and-see mood is strong, and the overall transaction in the market is light. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is about 6600 yuan / ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120cst is about 6700 yuan / ton. It is a single discussion. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be mainly sorted out in the near future.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business club, the PC market fell this week, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of June 10, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business club was about 20766.67 yuan / ton, up or down -0.64% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, domestic bisphenol A was boosted by the favorable cost at the beginning of this week, but it was difficult to smooth out the bad terminal demand, and the market immediately went down again. With the increase of inventory, there is pressure on the carriers and factories, and the shipment is slow. However, at present, the cost level is high, the goods holders follow the market, and the business community expects a short-term weak adjustment.

The upstream bisphenol a market weakened, and the PC cost side support was cut. In terms of industrial load, this week, the load of domestic PC enterprises increased as a whole due to the resumption of some devices in western Shandong. The on-site spot supply increased, and the supply side was difficult to support the spot price. At present, the main benefit in the market is still the international crude oil in the far upstream, but it fell back due to the drag of weak downstream demand. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is limited due to various factors, and the goods taking situation is poor. The impact of domestic health incidents on some parts of East China is gradually decreasing, but some transportation recovery is still slow. The market is dominated by small orders, buyers’ mentality of buying up but not buying down spreads, merchants’ confidence is not strong, and offer to make profits on the market.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the analysts of business agency, the domestic PC market fell this week, the upstream bisphenol a market weakened, and the cost side’s support effect on PC weakened. On the supply side, there is abundant supply of goods on the floor, on the demand side, spot trading is relatively light, and the actual trading volume on the floor is insufficient. It is expected that the spot price may continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate increased slightly this week. On June 9, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 454000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.67% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on June 5, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 451000 yuan / ton). On June 9, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 472000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.21% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on May 15, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 471000 yuan / ton).

From the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate rose slightly this week. At present, the transaction volume of market inquiry has begun to increase. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation in various regions, the downstream terminal demand has warmed up, and the production scheduling of enterprises has rebounded. The new production line of iron lithium has been put into operation, which has increased the procurement demand of the whole industry. Therefore, the price quotation of lithium carbonate has increased, and the price is expected to show positive performance.

The price of downstream lithium hydroxide increased slightly. At present, the spot market is becoming more active. Driven by the price increase of industrial lithium carbonate and the slight recovery of demand, the price also increased slightly. Some downstream material factories have added inquiry orders, and there are a small number of purchases.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate operated steadily. As the price of lithium salt continued to rise, the iron phosphate market became active, and some enterprises’ quotations fell. The prices of the two were relatively offset, and the manufacturing cost of lithium iron phosphate was generally stable. However, the supply side is still in short supply. At present, it is mainly based on the preliminary arrangement and delivery.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of the business club, the current market inquiry is gradually increasing, the large downstream material manufacturers are orderly preparing to purchase according to the demand, the market spot quantity is slightly tight, and the low-cost lithium carbonate is relatively small. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price may rise steadily.

On June 8, the price of aluminum fluoride was strong and stable temporarily

According to the data of business agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 11250 yuan / ton on June 8, which was the same as that of the previous trading day; Compared with the price of aluminum fluoride of 11200 yuan / ton on June 1, the price increased by 0.45%. Recent strong adjustment of aluminum fluoride Market.

Key points of analysis

Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid has been strongly adjusted, the price of fluorite has fluctuated and risen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has risen; The high price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream was adjusted, the price of cryolite rebounded and adjusted, and the downstream demand recovered. The overall downward pressure on aluminum fluoride is still strong.

Aftermarket forecast

The demand for strong cost adjustment was temporarily stable, the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride was still strong, and the future market of aluminum fluoride was subject to strong shock adjustment.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid market price first fell and then rose this month. The quotation first fell from 325.00 yuan / ton on May 1 to 300.00 yuan / ton on May 7, a decrease of 7.69%, and then rose to 320.00 yuan / ton on May 30, an increase of 6.67%, an increase of 41.17% over the same period last year.

On May 29, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 78.95, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.74% from the highest point of 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 339.10% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is enhanced, and the downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose and fell this month, and the downstream demand was general.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly, which strengthened the support for hydrochloric acid. The downstream ammonium chloride market rose slightly. The price of ammonium chloride rose from 1445.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1527.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 5.71%, an increase of 104.35% over the same period last year. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market fell slightly. The price fell from 2302.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2242.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.61%, up 27.66% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream market fluctuates with each other, and the downstream is generally enthusiastic about purchasing hydrochloric acid. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this month.

Rising slightly in the aftermarket

In the first ten days of June, the market price of hydrochloric acid may rise slightly. The upstream liquid chlorine market has risen slightly recently, with good cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market has risen slightly, the price of polyaluminum chloride has fluctuated slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general. Business analysts believe that the recent market of hydrochloric acid may rise slightly.

In May, the nylon filament market rose strongly, and the price of J showed a continuous upward trend. The main reason for the increase was driven by the cost. Caprolactam in the upstream of the cost side followed the rise of crude oil, and the overall price was strong, which formed a certain supporting role for high-speed spinning chips and nylon filament. However, the price rise did not drive the positive attitude of the downstream to take goods, and most downstream customers had insufficient confidence in the future market. The overall market wait-and-see atmosphere was thickened, and the trading atmosphere was not prosperous.

Market price trend

Nylon price chart

Price trend of nylon POY (86d/24f)

From the perspective of price trend, the price of nylon filament was stable this week. According to the price monitoring of the business club, as of May 31, 2022, the quotation of domestic nylon POY (superior product; 86d/24f) was 18250 yuan / ton, an increase of 1125 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 6.57%; The price of nylon filament DTY (superior product; 70d/24f) is 20480 yuan / ton, an increase of 880 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 4.49%; The price of nylon FDY (superior product: 40d/12f) was reported at 21000 yuan / ton, up 325 yuan / ton or 1.57% compared with that at the beginning of the month.

Upstream raw material Market

Price fluctuation chart of nylon filament industrial chain

Raw material cyclohexanone: the domestic cyclohexanone market was running at a high level in May. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 11200 yuan / ton, and the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the end of the month was 11710 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.55% in the month and 10.06% year-on-year. In May, the cyclohexanone market continued to be on the high side, and the high level of raw material pure benzene supported the whole industry chain. In terms of supply, the operating rate of production enterprises was low, and the supply was slightly tight, adding positive factors. At the same time, the downstream continued to recover, the basic demand began to expand, and the cyclohexanone market was relatively strong in the whole may.

Raw material caprolactam: in May, caprolactam at the upstream of the cost side followed the rise of crude oil, and the overall price was strong, which further contributed to the growth of the nylon fiber market. Of which, caprolactam rose from 13483 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 14800 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1317 yuan / ton, or 9.77% per month. The caprolactam analysts of the business club believe that the current raw material prices continue to strengthen, and the cost support is favorable. Some enterprises plan to repair devices, and the supply may be reduced. The demand side has limited follow-up and just needs to purchase. Under the high and strong market of raw materials, caprolactam price rises in the short term.

Supply and demand market

On the supply side, the start-up of nylon production plants in early May remained at a high level. Although some manufacturers reduced their production, the on-site spot supply remained sufficient, and some manufacturers had inventory pressure. In addition, the demand for downstream terminals is weak, the overall enthusiasm for taking goods in the field is not good, and the follow-up of new orders is limited; There is no “buy up not buy down” mentality. Most customers continue to buy on demand and follow up carefully. Although the logistics situation has improved in the first ten days of May, on the whole, the pressure of supply-demand imbalance in Jinzhou market is still large.

Aftermarket forecast

In general, the cost side of nylon still supports the high level of the market, the supply of goods is sufficient, and there is no too much positive feedback on the demand side. The analysts of the business agency expect that the nylon filament market will continue to be strong and weak in the short term, and the overall market will tend to be high.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business society, toluene rose violently this month, and the price rose broadly. On May 1, the price of toluene was 7310 yuan / ton, and on May 27, it was 7920 yuan / ton, an increase of 610 yuan / ton or 8.34% compared with the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 34.79%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Due to the high price of toluene in the US gold plate, South Korean toluene was sent to the US for arbitrage, and domestic toluene exports to South Korea increased significantly. The toluene export market is active, adding to the wide rise of crude oil in the month, the operators have a positive attitude of supporting prices, and the domestic market prices have risen continuously.

In the external market, toluene in Asia rose sharply in the external market this month. On May 27, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $1105 / ton, a month on month increase of US $81 / ton, or 7.91%.

In terms of crude oil, due to the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the fact that the EU embargo policy on Russian oil has not yet been implemented, the future crude oil supply is still expected to be tight. In addition, the continuous rise of gasoline prices in the United States, and the peak season of fuel oil demand is coming, the growth of demand drives up the international oil price. As of May 27, Brent rose $10.09/barrel, or 9.23%; WTI rose $10.38/barrel, or 9.91%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China continued to decline this month, and the price fell broadly. At the beginning of the month, the price of domestic goods was 17775 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 16775 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.63% over the beginning of the month and an increase of 18.13% over the same period last year.

In the PX market, domestic PX prices rose sharply this month. The price was 8900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9900 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price increased by 11.24% compared with the beginning of the month and 54.69% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong fell this month. At the beginning of the month, the price was 8819.8 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 8720.6 yuan / ton, down 1.12% from the beginning of the month and up 14.95% from the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the peak season of U.S. gasoline and diesel demand is coming. In addition, the European Union has launched negotiations on whether to completely ban the import of Russian oil. The tension between supply and demand of crude oil has intensified, and it is still possible to rise. In June, the crude oil trend continued to fluctuate violently. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on output, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

The trend of crude oil is strong, and the cost may continue to rise. Toluene export orders continued, the downstream PX market was positive, the positive atmosphere was not reduced, and toluene was strong in the short term. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, toluene device dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on toluene price.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the domestic PTA market remained volatile and upward in May, at a high level in three years. As of May 31, the average market price was 6900 yuan / ton, up 7.37% from the beginning of the month and 46.97% year-on-year. The favorable cost side pushed up the PTA price. In addition, PTA production suffered losses, some units maintained production reduction or maintenance status, and the supply side decreased. Specifically:

As of May 30, the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $117.60/barrel. The Brent contract in July exceeded $120, the highest level in more than two months. The market watched the implementation of the European Union’s oil embargo agreement on Russia. The tightening of supply and the expectation of the peak driving season in the United States significantly supported the oil price.

Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has declined. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is less than 60%, the supply of PX goods in Asia is tight, and the closing price of PX in the outer market has risen. As of the 27th, the closing price was $1264-1266 / T FOB Korea and $1292-1294 / T CFR China. This led to a sharp rise in the domestic market price of p-xylene. By the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9900 yuan / ton, up 11.24% compared with the price of 8900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 54.69% year-on-year.

In terms of supply, under the low processing cost, PTA plant has been overhauled and reduced its load more. The current operating load has dropped below 68%, and the spot liquidity in the market has been tightened. In terms of inventory, PTA social inventory fell back to 2.74 million tons.

Affected by the boost of raw materials, the downstream polyester market prices rose, among which the polyester filament products rose by 6%-11%. However, at present, the finished product inventory of the polyester factory is on the high side. At the same time, there is a resistance to high priced raw materials. The overall start-up is slow, and the start-up of the industry remains around 78%. At the same time, the terminal market is in the traditional off-season, and the comprehensive startup rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is below 60%, which is a drag on the PTA demand side.

Business analysts believe that crude oil and PX fluctuate at a high level, and the cost remains high, which will still form a positive support for the cost side of PTA. Under low processing cost, PTA unit load will also maintain low-level operation. The performance of the terminal market is still weak, polyester production and sales are difficult to improve, and the sluggish demand has brought suppression. Generally speaking, PTA remained high and volatile in June under the support of costs.