Introduction: Isooctanol generally refers to 2-ethylhexanol, which is a colorless, clear, and flammable liquid with a special odor. Mainly used for the production of dioctyl phthalate (DOP), dioctyl acetate (DOA), trioctyl phthalate (TOTM), other plasticizers, octyl acrylate, surfactants, lubricant additives, mining, diesel engine fuel additives, solvents and formulations, rust inhibitor esters, and other chemicals.

In 2023, the market situation of isooctanol in Shandong Province fluctuated and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the Shandong Isooctanol market will experience a wide range of fluctuations and increases in 2023. The average price at the beginning of the year was 9733.33 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 12950 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 33.05%. From the price trend chart of isooctanol, it can be seen that the highest price of isooctanol in 2023 was 13100 yuan/ton in late December, and the lowest price was 8660 yuan/ton in mid June, with a maximum annual amplitude of 51.27%.

From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that in 2023, the price of isooctanol increased more than decreased, and the market trend showed a wide range of fluctuations. The highest increase was 30.62% in August, and the highest decrease was 14.06% in February. In 2023, the equipment of isooctanol enterprises will continue to be shut down for maintenance, and the supply of isooctanol will be tight. Downstream plasticizer enterprises will start operating at a high level, and demand buying will stimulate the continuous rise of isooctanol prices. In the first half of 2023, iso octanol enterprises started at a high level, but in January, the main iso octanol manufacturers stopped for maintenance and stocked up before the year, resulting in an increase in iso octanol prices. In early May, due to an unexpected shutdown of iso octanol equipment in western Shandong, the price of iso octanol briefly surged. Afterwards, production capacity partially recovered, and the price of iso octanol returned to a low level. In August, multiple iso octanol manufacturers continuously shut down their equipment, causing the price of iso octanol to rise again and again; In October, Qilu Petrochemical equipment maintenance led to a further increase in the price of isooctanol; In December, Qilu Petrochemical’s isooctanol equipment was shut down due to an accident, and the price of isooctanol skyrocketed. The start date of the accident is uncertain, and the price of isooctanol has stabilized at a high level in the short term.

How will the isooctanol market develop in 2024?

From the perspective of production capacity: According to data, the total production capacity of isooctanol in 2023 was about 2.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. However, the production of iso octanol has been significantly reduced due to the unstable production of iso octanol, which has led to the frequent maintenance and shutdown of iso octanol enterprises. In 2024, new facilities such as satellite petrochemical may be put into operation in the second half of the year, and it is expected that the supply of isooctanol will remain tight in the first half of the year.

From the perspective of market demand, the plasticizer industry will lead the rise of the chemical sector in 2023. Affected by environmental and safety requirements, DBP production capacity and output have been shrinking year by year. However, due to its obvious price advantage, DBP still has a certain demand, and in recent years, DBP production has stabilized. DOP was originally the most widely used plasticizer, but in recent years, it has been affected by environmental restrictions on exports. In 2022, DOTP will replace DOP as the largest plasticizer product in China. It is expected that plasticizers will open high and close low in 2024.

From the perspective of imports and exports: According to customs data, the total import volume of isooctanol in China in 2023 was 313500 tons, an increase of about 160000 tons or 96.00% compared to the total import volume in 2022. The total export volume of isooctanol in 2023 was 25400 tons, a decrease of 46500 tons compared to the total export volume in 2022, with a decrease of 64.67%. The release of new production capacity in the second half of 2024 is expected to further increase the export volume in 2024.

Looking at the future market: supply is tight in the first half of the year, production capacity is released in the second half of the year, and the isooctanol market may show a trend of first rising and then falling in 2024