1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, nickel prices have fluctuated and fallen this week. As of January 5th, the spot nickel quotation was 126000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.1% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 45.17%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have fallen by 10% and risen by 2% in the past 12 weeks, with nickel prices still showing a main decline in recent times.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

On a macro level, following the announcement of the December interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve, market focus has shifted to the core US November PCE data released this Friday. The market is waiting for important data to be released in order to obtain new guidance, as the US dollar fluctuates.

In terms of supply, some enterprises have reduced production at a loss. In November, the national refined nickel production was 23000 tons, a decrease of 3.9% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 54.45%. The production of major overseas nickel companies in the first three quarters decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, mostly due to unexpected disturbances, with good profits and weak willingness to actively reduce production.

In terms of demand: Alloy is the main downstream of pure nickel, with better demand for military and ship alloys, and inferior demand for civilian alloys. The demand for electroplating is relatively stable. Stainless steel inventory returned to a neutral level, and steel mills slightly resumed production in December. New energy basically does not require pure nickel. Last week, nickel prices fell significantly, and some downstream restocking during the Spring Festival was advanced.

In summary, nickel prices have continued to weaken, and downstream purchasing and stocking sentiment has increased. Some downstream stocking for the Spring Festival has been advanced, and social inventory has been depleted within the week; Production remains high and inventory continues to accumulate. Overall, the fundamentals continue to be weak with no new bearish sentiment, but there is also a lack of bullish sentiment. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to operate weakly.