In December, the domestic BDO market got better

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic BDO market fell first and then rose in December, recovering somewhat. From December 1 to 29, the average price of domestic BDO manufacturers rose from 9716 yuan/ton to 9740 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the price rose by 0.25%, the maximum amplitude was 3.33%, and the price fell by 68.57% year on year.

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At the beginning of the month, the domestic BDO market was narrowed, and most traders held a steady wait-and-see attitude. The atmosphere of real order negotiation was light. The supply and demand negotiations played a game, and the market focus was deadlocked. Although some maintenance devices such as Shaanxi Shanhua and Chongqing Jianfeng have been restarted, and the market supply has increased, the demand for BDO of Henan Hemei after the shutdown of the device has been met. The supply and demand parties negotiate and play games, and the market is difficult to rise and fall. In the first ten days of this month, the early maintenance devices of the production enterprises were started successively, and the market supply increased accordingly, while the downstream demand continued to be sluggish, and the operating rate of enterprises in the downstream industry was low. As a result, the digestion of raw materials BDO was greatly reduced, and the BDO price continued to decline. In the middle of this month, the manufacturing enterprises had a strong intention to support the market, but the downstream industries were mainly wait-and-see, maintaining contract follow-up, just needed small spot purchase, and the focus of delivery and investment rose in a narrow range. At the end of this month, the new and old cycles alternated. The market waited and waited for settlement information, and the atmosphere of actual order negotiation was light. Although some enterprises announced bidding prices, their intention to support the market was strong, but the overall market fluctuation was limited and the increase was not large.


On the cost side, raw calcium carbide: the business community monitored that the domestic calcium carbide price rose first and then fell, with narrow fluctuations. The price at the beginning of the month remained at 3750 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month remained at 3702 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.28%. In terms of methanol, the business community monitored that the price of domestic methanol in East China ports fluctuated at a low level, with 2681 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 2631 yuan/ton at the end of the month (as of 15:00 on December 29). The price fell 1.86% during the period. In the near future, there are few positive factors in the carbide and methanol markets, and the BDO cost support is weak.


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On the supply side, after Yizheng Dalian, Henan Hemei, Meike Phase III, Sichuan Tianhua, and Lanshantunhe one set of devices were shut down for maintenance and reagent change, Sichuan Wanhua devices were also shut down due to natural gas problems, and the overall load of the industry dropped to around 60%, with strong support on the supply side. BDO supply level is obviously favorable.


On the demand side, the PTMEG industry load dropped to around 60%, maintaining contract follow-up. The PBT industry started to improve, and the digestion of raw materials increased, but the contract procurement was the main part, and the spot follow-up was limited. The load of PBAT industry is increased to around 15%, and the production of new capacity is delayed. The overall BDO demand has not changed much.


The future forecast shows that the industry is in a loss state at present. Although the domestic BDO market supply has increased slightly, the manufacturing enterprises continue to support the market. The main downstream PTMEG, PBT and other markets were weak, which suppressed the market trend and made it difficult to trade at high prices. Business agency BDO analysts expect that the domestic BDO market will be dominated by sideways consolidation.

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