1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the trading society, the nickel price fluctuated slightly in August. At the beginning of the month, the nickel price was 192383.33 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the nickel price dropped slightly to 171233.33 yuan / ton, with an overall decrease of 10.99%, up 17.11% year-on-year.

On the macro side, the domestic industrial added value, retail sales of consumer goods and fixed asset investment above Designated Size in July were all lower than expected, while the real estate data weakened again to a new low. In August, the global energy crisis became more severe, and the economic prospects of Europe were even less ideal. However, the US economic data is not ideal, and the global economy is in recession.

Supply: from January to July this year, China imported 454400 physical tons of nickel wet process intermediate products, equivalent to about 75500 tons of nickel metal, a year-on-year increase of 126%. The production capacity of Indonesian nickel ore and ferronickel in the overseas market has increased rapidly, and the domestic electrolytic nickel supply is expected to be loose. Domestic pure nickel inventory is at a low level. The recovery of overseas nickel mines eased the tight situation. Indonesia’s Ferronickel, wet intermediate products and high nickel matte gradually flowed in, and the excess pressure on the supply side remained unabated.

Demand: downstream stainless steel is still a factor of instability. The implementation of production reduction, high inventory has undergone certain decontamination, but the overall demand is still less than expected. Low price sources and market sentiment lead traders to wait and see, which makes the price performance weak and the industrial chain can not be resonated, which also restricts the nickel price. China’s new energy vehicles continue to maintain a high-speed growth trend, but the year-on-year growth rate of production and sales slowed down in July, and the global economic downturn may also drag down the new energy market. From January to July, China’s power battery loading volume was 134gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 110.6%, but the ternary battery loading volume was only 41.3%. The growth of demand for ternary batteries was squeezed, which dragged down the growth of downstream demand for nickel.

News: Indonesia plans to impose 2% – 3% export tariff on ferronickel and nickel pig iron. This range may be adjusted with the change of nickel price. This tax policy adjustment may be implemented as early as the third quarter. Indonesia imposed tariffs on Ferronickel, which directly led to an increase in the cost of converting stainless steel and new energy NPI to high nickel matte. However, at present, the stainless steel market is sluggish, and the NPI production process in the new energy field is not the mainstream production process, so the impact of taxation is limited. It is also rumored that the state intends to collect and store nickel, but it is expected that the nickel reserves collected this time will be small and have little impact.

To sum up, the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose. In terms of demand, the downstream stainless steel and new energy are less than expected. September is the traditional peak season. Demand may improve, but the overall economy is sluggish. According to the annual price comparison chart of business associations in recent years, nickel prices may rise slightly in September, but the overall increase is limited. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate widely and rise slightly in September.