1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the market price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus fluctuated this month. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 36750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 36666.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price fluctuated and decreased within the month, with a range of 0.23%.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the price of yellow phosphorus mainly fluctuated, the overall rise and fall range was small, and the consolidation and operation was the main. The market trading situation is acceptable. Most yellow phosphorus enterprises operate at high prices. The downstream is more resistant to high price yellow phosphorus, and the purchase price is more depressed. On the whole, there are many enquiries, the transaction is general, the goods are prepared appropriately, the rigid demand is the main, and the price is relatively deadlocked. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 36000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Sichuan is about 37000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 37000 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, the domestic phosphate rock market this month showed high and stable operation after the overall rise at the beginning of the month. The price of phosphate ore in Guangxi is 790-30% of the reference price of phosphate ore in the region near April 26, and the reference price of phosphate ore in Guizhou is 790-30%. At present, the goods in the phosphate rock field are tight, the price is strong as a whole, and the market in the field continues to be high and strong. It is expected that in the short term, China’s domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to operate stably, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

In terms of coke, the coke market experienced two rounds of increase in April 2022, with a cumulative increase of 400 yuan / ton. As of the press release, the price of primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 3794 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 11.79%. In terms of coking enterprises, the current operating rate is higher than that of last month. After six rounds of increase, the profits of coking enterprises are better. Coking enterprises are actively shipping, the coke inventory in the plant has also decreased, and the shipping situation has been improved. In terms of downstream steel mills, the recent commencement of steel mills has remained stable, and the coke inventory in the plant is generally low. The steel mills have a strong willingness to purchase and actively replenish the inventory. Near the 51 small and long holiday, the steel mills have a demand for replenishment before the festival, and the short-term coke demand will continue to strengthen. However, at present, the profit of steel mills is declining, which has a certain impact on the purchasing enthusiasm. The disk of the superimposed futures market continues to weaken, and the overall market atmosphere is weak. It is expected that the coke market will be mainly stable before the festival, and the follow-up needs to focus on transportation and coke inventory in all links.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the price trend of phosphoric acid in April showed an upward trend, rising to above 10000 yuan, and the market focus shifted upward. After the Qingming holiday, the phosphoric acid market remained stable, but the price of raw yellow phosphorus fell, and the phosphoric acid Market weakened. Since the middle of the year, the price of raw yellow phosphorus has risen to about 38000, and the supply is tight, the cost of phosphoric acid enterprises is under pressure, the price trend is stable and upward, the supply of wet acid market is tight, and the price has also increased, but the market logistics is not smooth, the trading atmosphere is not high, and the increase of phosphoric acid in the month is limited. Near the end of the month, the price of raw materials decreased slightly, and the downstream replenishment was basically closed, and the price of phosphoric acid decreased obviously and secretly. By the end of the month, the price of raw materials was about 36000-37000 yuan / ton, and the market price of phosphoric acid was about 10300-11500 yuan / ton. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will remain stable and wait-and-see, or decline slightly.

3、 Future forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business agency believes that the yellow phosphorus price fluctuates this month, with little fluctuation up and down. The price of upstream phosphate rock increased and the coke market rose. Downstream phosphoric acid market price upward trend. The upstream and downstream support is strong, and the yellow phosphorus is expected to be in a stalemate in the short term.