This week (April 11-15), the domestic liquid ammonia Market stabilized after rising. The transaction focus in northern regions such as Shandong, Hebei and Shanxi has generally risen, which is mainly affected by the reduction of supply in the region and the failure of some devices. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of April 15, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 0.67%. At present, the mainstream quotation range of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4800-4900 yuan / ton.
| Benzalkonium chloride |
Supply side
On the supply side, this week, the overall ammonia release in many domestic places was mainly flat compared with the previous week, with a partial decline. At present, it is still strong in the South and weak in the north. In particular, there are too many unit maintenance in the south, and the reduction of supply has led to the price of liquid ammonia remaining above the 5000 yuan mark this week. Affected by public health events in northern regions such as Shandong, the shipment is not smooth, but it is also accompanied by plant shutdown and maintenance, and the supply pressure is small. However, the plant is restarted in the middle of the week, and the supply pressure may gradually form in the later stage.
Cost side
The upstream coal market is affected by the regulation policy, and the price maintains the previous level. At present, the profits of downstream methanol and liquid ammonia manufacturers are generally boosted. With the fall of natural gas price, the cost pressure of gas head enterprises has been relieved. According to the monitoring of business agency, LNG fell by 5.71% this week.
Demand side
In the end, the downstream of liquid ammonia still maintained a moderate growth trend, the price of urea stabilized after falling, and the rebound trend of ammonium nitrate, ammonium chloride and other products continued last week. On the whole, the downstream agricultural demand is still strong, and the industrial demand is normal. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season, and dealers take goods actively. However, affected by the epidemic, urea shipment is blocked and freight rates rise sharply. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant, plate plant and melamine plant is high, and the bargain hunting is followed up appropriately.
From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same, and the curve crosses in April. It is mainly due to the impact of the high decline of urea price, and the strong price of liquid ammonia also brings some cost pressure to the downstream. However, at present, the price difference between the two has narrowed and maintained a reasonable level.
| Sodium Molybdate |
From the above figure and the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, at present, the profits of the liquid ammonia industry chain continue to improve, the natural gas price in the upstream of the gas head falls, the coal price is affected by the policy, and the price remains weak, which is conducive to alleviating the downstream cost pressure. The middle and lower reaches recovered, the enterprise profit increased, and the profit of liquid ammonia increased significantly compared with the previous period. The downstream areas have also improved significantly, with formic acid, ammonium chloride and ammonium nitrate rising to varying degrees.
Future forecast
According to the business society, at present, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia has maintained a basic balance, and the differentiation trend of local supply and demand. The current situation of supply shortage in the South has eased compared with last week. The resumption of plant production in the North has also brought loose expectations to the market. Some manufacturers have reduced the ex factory price at the weekend, and the possibility of continued price loosening in the later stage cannot be ruled out. The demand side is dominated by rigid demand, so it is difficult to see too much in the later price. In addition, public health events are still fermenting, which will still bring some pressure on transportation in the later stage. Generally speaking, under the condition of basically balanced supply and demand, the ammonia market may still maintain a high consolidation pattern in the near future.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |