1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners continued to rise this week. The average price in Shandong market was 4313.75 yuan / ton on March 6, up 1.47% from 4251.25 yuan / ton on February 28.

On March 6, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 335.52, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 401.60% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Refinery shipments were good this week and prices rose at a high level. At present, the refinery has low inventory, good downstream demand and positive transaction.

Upstream: international crude oil prices soared. The news of IEA member states releasing crude oil reserves did not cool the overheated oil market, and international crude oil futures still rose sharply. It is difficult for Russia and Ukraine to reach a satisfactory outcome in the negotiations, the war in Ukraine is difficult to calm down in the short term, and oil prices soared amid the increasing expectation of energy supply interruption. Judging from the amount of crude oil reserves released by IEA Member States, 2 million barrels are released every day for 30 days, and the total release is only 60 million barrels. At present, Russia’s crude oil output is about 10 million barrels / day, which is only Russia’s output in six days, which is a drop in the bucket. At present, the Western camp’s sanctions against Russia have increased “swift”, known as the financial “nuclear bomb” level sanctions. Some Russian banks will not be able to conduct cross-border trade settlement under this system, which will be a fatal blow to Russia’s energy exports. The market is generally worried about the interruption of energy supply in the future. Instead of calming the oil price, the IEA declaration made the oil price reach a new high in the sound of panic.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke rose as a whole this week; The market price of metal silicon continues to rise; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose. As of March 6, the price was 23453.33 yuan / ton.

The petroleum coke analyst of business agency believes that: the international crude oil rises sharply, the local petroleum coke price is supported by the cost, the refinery has no pressure on the inventory at present, and the downstream demand has improved. It is expected that the petroleum coke price may continue to rise in the near future.