According to the commodity index system of business society, the natural rubber commodity index on November 14 was 39.87, the same as yesterday, down 60.13% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 46.15% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the natural rubber market in China continued to fluctuate in the week (August 14), and the increase range was expanded near the weekend. The price of China’s domestic standard 1 spot rubber was reported as 13080 yuan / ton in the East China market on the 8th (Monday), and 13444 yuan / ton on the 14th (Sunday), with a weekly increase of 2.78%; The highest price point of this week is 13444 yuan / ton on Friday, the lowest point is 13080 yuan / ton on Monday, and the maximum amplitude is the increase of 2.78% in that week.

The factors affecting the market this week are more prominent: 1. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on November 7, China imported 512000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in October 2021, down 23.7% from 671000 tons in the same period in 2020. From January to October 2021, China imported 5.475 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 9.4% from 6.044 million tons in the same period in 2020. 2. According to the latest data of the Federation of passenger cars, the retail sales of the broad passenger car market reached 1.738 million in October 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%, but a month on month increase of 8.3%; In October 2021, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 321000, a year-on-year increase of 141%, but a month on month decrease of 3.9%. In the first 10 months, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 2139000, an increase of 73.3% over the same period last year. 3. According to the data released by China Automobile Association on November 10, China’s macroeconomic operation was generally stable in October 2021, but the domestic and international environment was still complex and severe. The automobile industry has made efforts to overcome the impact of many adverse factors such as tight power supply and high raw material prices, and the supply situation of vehicle specification chip is slightly better than that in the third quarter. Automobile production and sales continue to show a recovery trend, and the overall situation shows signs of improvement. 4. It was reported on November 11 that Thailand is experiencing the most serious labor shortage after reopening the country. According to the preliminary statistics of industries requiring a large number of labor, such as agriculture, manufacturing, service and construction, at least 800000 foreign workers need to be introduced. The analysis shows that Thailand’s rubber industry is also suffering from a serious labor shortage. 5. Recently, the demand for No. 20 mixed rubber has increased, the arrival volume is limited, and the inventory remains low, which plays an obvious role in supporting the domestic rubber price.

Future forecast: the cutting of domestic rubber will be stopped one after another, and the superposition of No. 20 mixed rubber has obvious supporting effect in the near future. The production and sales of automobile enterprises have improved to a certain extent, and the operating rate of tire factories has rebounded slightly in the near future. It is expected that the recent trend of rubber is more likely to fluctuate in the near future.