Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in early trading on July 30 was 5329.67 yuan / kg, which was 5279.33 yuan / kg higher than the average price of spot market on July 29; Increased by 0.95%; Compared with the early average price of 5304.33 yuan / kg in the spot market in early July (July 1), an increase of 0.48%; Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 3.97%.

On July 30, the early spot price of gold was 380.20 yuan / g, up 0.37% from the early spot price on July 29; Compared with the early average price of 366.77 yuan / g in the spot market in early July (7.1), an increase of 3.66%; Compared with the spot price of gold at the beginning of the year (01.01), 392.70 yuan / g, down 3.18%.

List of precious metal supply and demand data in 2021

According to the data of the World Gold Council, in the second quarter of 2021, the global gold consumption and investment demand increased compared with the first quarter.

Gold demand: in the second quarter of 2021, the total global demand for gold (excluding OTC transactions) reached 955.1 tons, an increase of 9% over the previous quarter, and a year-on-year decrease of only 1% compared with the same period in 2020 (960.5 tons).

In the second quarter, the demand for gold bars and gold coins increased year-on-year for the fourth consecutive quarter, reaching 243.8 tons, a year-on-year increase of 56%, the best quarterly performance since 2013.

The total global consumption of gold jewelry was 390.7 tons, a year-on-year increase of 60%. The global demand for science and technology funds was 80.0 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18%; The global gold ETF position increased by 40.7 tons. In the second quarter, central banks continued to maintain a steady pace of gold purchase, and the global official gold reserve increased by 199.9 tons, of which the central banks of Thailand, Hungary and Brazil bought the most.

Gold supply: the impact of the epidemic gradually subsided, and the total global gold supply reached 1171.7 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13%.

According to the data of the second quarter, the global gold consumption and investment demand showed a positive trend, but overall, the total global gold demand (excluding OTC transactions) in the first half of 2021 was 1833.1 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10%; The global gold ETF had a net outflow in the first half of the year for the first time since 2014, with an outflow of 129.3 tons.

Investment demand weakened, but physical demand increased year-on-year. In the first half of 2021, the global demand for gold bars and gold coins was 594.5 tons, the best performance since 2013, with a year-on-year increase of 45%; The global demand for gold jewelry reached 873.7 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 57%, but decreased by 17% compared with the average level in 2015-2019; Global central banks bought 333.2 tons of gold, up 63% year-on-year, 39% higher than the average level in the first half of the past five years; The global demand for science and technology gold was 161.0t, slightly higher than the 160.6t demand for science and technology gold in the first half of 2019, with a year-on-year increase of 14%.

The supply side recovered year-on-year. In the first half of 2021, the total global gold supply reached 2307.9 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%.

Fundamentals superimposed on policy, precious metals are good in the short term

The fundamentals of supply and demand show that in 2021, the demand for gold will gradually pick up, the supply will increase simultaneously, and there are signs of recovery after the reduction of investment demand. On the one hand, the gold price is falling at a high level, showing a certain speculative value and the market risk preference is rising; On the other hand, affected by inflation expectations, the demand for savings preservation of physical gold such as gold bars and gold coins increased.

In terms of policy, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep its key interest rate near zero at the policy meeting ended on Wednesday, which is good for precious metals to a certain extent; The US GDP in the second quarter was much lower than expected, and the US dollar continued to sell off on Friday. The dollar fell below 92. In the short term, precious metals have been strongly supported in the near future.

Future forecast

Ye Jianjun, an analyst at business society, expects that the price of precious metals will still fluctuate in the range in the near future. On the one hand, although the US dollar index has weakened recently, in the long run, it has rebounded from the low level at the end of the second quarter, with downward resistance support and strong overall uncertainty; On the other hand, inflation expectation vs interest rate increase operation expectation, the Fed’s expectation of monetary policy shift still exists, and the policy trend will continue to drag down the trend of precious metals.

The K-line chart of business society shows that since 2021 / 7 / 4, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average to start the upward trend, but the current two moving averages have the trend of going opposite. It is estimated on July 25, 2021 that the probability of operation situation change (i.e. the 7-day moving average crosses the 30-day moving average) in the next 7 days is 49.56%.

Technical indicators also show that the current operation situation is uncertain, mainly shock operation.