On May 24, 2021, the price of metallic silicon (441) remained stable. According to the data of business news agency, on May 24, the average market price of domestic metallic silicon (441) was 13991.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the average market price of 1 on Friday, and increased by 7.49% compared with the average market price of 13016.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of may (5.1).

On the 24th, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 13300-13400 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 13700-13900 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 13800-13900 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 14600-14800 yuan / ton, and that in Tianjin port is 14000-14200 yuan / ton, The price range of silicon metal in Huangpu port is 14100-14200 yuan / ton.

In the early stage, the price of silicon metal has risen. At present, the price is close to the position on the eve of the correction, and the rise begins to show resistance.

Benefit factor

1. Social inventory continues to move down

It is reported that by the 21st, the social inventory of silicon metal in the three places had decreased by 14000 tons compared with the beginning of this month.

2. Yunnan power rationing

According to a pre notice of emergency peak shifting preparation issued by Yunnan power grid on May 10, at present, the main reservoirs in Yunnan are overdrawn seriously, the coal storage of thermal power continues to decline, the power generation is seriously less than expected, and there is a power shortage of about 700000 kilowatts at the peak of power consumption on that day. Emergency peak load shifting and power rationing are started for local and state power enterprises, and the peak load shifting and power rationing amount is 10-30%.

Due to the tense power supply situation in Yunnan, whether Yunnan metal silicon plant can resume production on schedule in wet season is still uncertain due to many factors such as rainfall and power distribution in the province. It is expected that large-scale production will resume in early June. In addition, there is a great possibility that Yunnan Province will postpone the commissioning of the built-in 40000 ton polysilicon project and the time to reach the production capacity.

3. The rise of polysilicon is fascinating

The downstream polysilicon has shown a strong performance in the near future, with a step up. Polysilicon manufacturers are mainly in stable operation. Two major polysilicon manufacturers in Xinjiang have their polysilicon equipment overhauled, and one company in Inner Mongolia has reduced its production load, which affected part of the output. As a result, the supply of polysilicon was relatively tight in May, but this week has not eased. In the case of material shortage sentiment continues to heat up, the price rises naturally, the price of single crystal rises more strongly, and the price of long-term orders is locked, but the price of loose orders is generally high, further pushing up the expectation of silicon material rise. The price of domestic products is generally close to the 100000 mark. The price of imported polysilicon continues to rise this week. The average transaction price is over US $23 / kg, and there are scattered offers to US $24 / kg.

On May 14, Longji offered 4.39 yuan per chip for G1 and 4.49 yuan per chip for M6. On May 20, after Longji’s price increase, Zhonghuan raised its price again. Among 170 thickness silicon chips, G1 (158.75mm) offered 4.7 yuan per chip, up 0.44 yuan or 10% from May 10; M6 (166mm) quoted 4.85 yuan / piece, up 0.405 yuan, or 9.1%. The price of silicon wafer has been rising repeatedly, which has also brought support to silicon materials.

Negative factors

After the surge of non-ferrous products, affected by the macro-control news, it gradually entered the callback stage. After the surge of aluminum ingots, the downstream aluminum alloy is under more pressure, and the price transmission is not smooth, so there is little chance of rapidly increasing the operating rate. At present, the raw materials of aluminum alloy plants are mostly purchased on demand, mainly just needed.

Future forecast

On the supply side, the output of silicon metal decreased slightly in April, and the social inventory of silicon metal showed a downward trend in early May.

Recently, the price of aluminum began to callback after the sharp rise, and the price of aluminum alloy in the lower reaches may fall down, which has the possibility of price reverse conduction under the environment; Fortunately, the price of polysilicon in the lower reaches has risen, and the silicon market is still supported by rising fundamentals.