According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of February 28, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 15200 yuan / ton, which was increased by 6700 yuan / ton or 78.13% compared with the price on February 1 (8533 yuan / ton).
The market of n-butanol rose steadily in early February
Since the beginning of February, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong Province has been running steadily, moderately and strongly. Many n-butanol downstream plants started normal operation during the Spring Festival. The market demand has increased significantly. The downstream plants are actively preparing goods. The n-butanol plants are shipping smoothly, the spot inventory is low, and the market price has been rising steadily. In early February, the market price of n-butanol has increased by 500-1000 yuan / ton The average ex factory price of n-butanol is 9300 yuan / ton, up nearly 9% in half a month. Some n-butanol factories began to receive limited orders in the first ten days of February, and more orders were received in the later March of the year. Until the eve of the holiday, the cumulative inventory of n-butanol downstream butyl raw materials was still not high, which also foreshadowed the continued rise of n-butanol market after the holiday.
N-butanol market rose sharply in late February
During the holidays, the n-butanol market was stable and firm, with low inventory and scarce spot. On the 18th, the n-butanol market in Shandong rose sharply, with a single day rise rate of nearly 10%. The ex factory price of n-butanol in many factories exceeded 10000 yuan / ton. The attitude of the industry was positive, and the reluctance to sell was gradually strong. The downstream purchasing sentiment was optimistic. The market of n-butanol continued to rise after the festival, and the spot supply was insufficient, In the first week and three days after the festival, the ex factory quotation of n-butanol in Shandong Province has risen to around 11500-12500 yuan / ton, with the biggest increase of nearly 3000 yuan / ton in three days.
In the second week after the festival, on the 22nd, the n-butanol market continued to rise sharply. The ex factory price of n-butanol in North China of Wanhua chemical rose to 14700 yuan / ton, 3000 yuan / ton higher than that of the previous working day. On the 23rd, the opening price of Luxi Chemical rose to 14500 yuan / ton after several days of closure. The sharp rise of the two major chemical enterprises once again pushed up the ex factory price of n-butanol. On the 23rd, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was up The price of n-butanol rose to 14633 yuan / ton, the upstream and downstream transmission was smooth, and the market continued to run strongly. Near the end of the month, the market of n-butanol continued to rise, with an increase of 500-700 yuan / ton. As of February 28, the reference ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was around 14800-15500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15200 yuan / ton. Compared with the price before the festival, the price after the festival increased by more than 63%, and compared with the price at the beginning of February, the overall price rose It was nearly 80%.
On the upstream side, after the Spring Festival, February 18 is the first day when the Spring Festival holiday ends. The price of propylene starts a continuous upward trend, with a daily upward trend of about 200 yuan / ton. On February 22, the price of propylene is increased by 400 yuan / ton. By February 23, the price of propylene has increased by about 1400 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction has reached 8500 ~ 8550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price has risen to about 8500 yuan / ton. As of February 28, the price of propylene after the festival has increased by 18.5% 0%。 Now the factory stock is less, the shipment situation is more popular. Due to extreme weather in the United States, the units are frequently overhauled, and the restart time is uncertain, resulting in a sharp decrease in propylene production and soaring prices; due to the earthquake in Japan, the units are also affected, resulting in a decrease in propylene production capacity.
After n-butanol rises to a high level, it may cause a deadlock in downstream demand, and the market may fall in the short term
After the domestic n-butanol market rises to a high level, the mentality of the downstream may change. After the increase of downstream demand in the early stage, it may only maintain the just need to purchase and digest raw materials for a short time. Therefore, the n-butanol data analysts of the business community believe that the n-butanol market, which has been running at a high level for several days in the near future, may encounter a demand deadlock, and the market may fall slightly after shock.