1、 Price trend

The domestic toluene market rose steadily this week. As of Friday, the average price in the domestic market was about 3440 yuan / ton, up 4.24% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Boosted by the surge in international crude oil prices, toluene prices rose steadily this week. Sinopec’s listed toluene prices generally rose 100-200 yuan / ton this week. The port inventory is at a high level. At present, the port inventory in East China is about 65000 tons, so the pressure to go to the warehouse is not reduced. Market oversupply, downstream blending oil and solvent demand is general. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3520 yuan / ton. The future market will focus on the outcome of the US election, the progress of the US economic stimulus plan, the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the geographical situation in the Middle East and the impact of OPEC + on crude oil supply, the impact of the continuous deterioration of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, the global economic recovery, and the European and American economic recovery relief plan Progress.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the optimism that the vaccine news will boost crude oil demand at the beginning of the week, and the crude oil inventory decline announced by the American Petroleum Association is significantly higher than expected, which supports the strong rebound of international crude oil. It rebounds to around $43 / barrel on Wednesday and then gradually falls back to close around 40 on Friday. At the beginning of next week, we will focus on the gains and losses of $40 / barrel support. As of Friday, spot Brent rose $3.485/barrel to close at $41.785/barrel, up 9.1% month on month. At present, the main uncertain factors in the market come from the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States and the uncertainty of the US presidential election. The final direction of crude oil will not take further action until the demand side is better and the US election is clear. In the medium term, oil prices mainly depend on the recovery of demand side and the direction of macro market.

Downstream, TDI continued the downward trend this week, the market mentality is cautious, trading atmosphere is weak, pay attention to factory policy guidance. At present, 13000 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 13200 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will continue to decline. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 510 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 528 US dollars / ton CFR China. Short term PX market is expected to decline slightly.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. On the whole, it is expected that toluene in the domestic market will recover slightly next week.