1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of business agency, the ex factory price of oil glycol in North China was stable this week. On February 28, the average ex factory price of oil to glycol in North China was 4500 yuan / ton, the same as last week.

 

At the beginning of this week, the price of large-scale single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 4435 yuan / ton, while the price on Friday was 4315 yuan / ton, down 120 yuan / ton, down 2.71%.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

As of February 27, the total operating rate of domestic glycol was 68.31%, basically the same as last week.

 

In terms of shipment, the shipment in the mainstream warehouse area of East China continued to be at a very low level last week. From last Friday to this Wednesday, the total shipment of glycol was 34100 tons, far lower than the same period last year.

 

As of February 27, the glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 685500 tons, an increase of 107000 tons, or 18.50%, compared with last Thursday, and 53900 tons, or 8.53%, compared with this Monday. The East China port is expected to reach 229000 tons next week.

 

In terms of the unit, Tongliao gold coal’s 300000 ton / a coal to glycol unit is initially scheduled to start maintenance on March 5 and is expected to last for 15-20 days. The ethylene glycol unit of Yanshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is still in shutdown state, and the restart plan is postponed to the middle of March.

 

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In the downstream, the polyester operation rate is 62.69%, which is higher than that of last week, and the weaving end operation rate is rising gradually.

 

3、 Analysis and prediction

 

Affected by the global spread of public health events, crude oil prices fell sharply from last Friday, resulting in the cost of glycol losing support.

 

In addition, due to the insufficient recovery of polyester production capacity in the downstream, glycol inventory consumption is slow. However, the number of ships arriving at the port continues to increase, and the accumulation of cargo becomes a real problem.

 

At present, the price of domestic glycol is lower than the cost, and most manufacturers have not responded to it. However, due to the low cost of foreign production, market confidence has been severely hit from the price trend of spot and futures. It is expected that in the short term, the price of glycol will hardly have the hope of recovery.

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