Price Trend

According to the data of business associations’list, the domestic toluene Market broke the ice this week, the market warmed up, the price was higher than last week, the price of enterprises was stable at the beginning of the week, and increased at the weekend. At the beginning of the week, the average price of enterprises was 4937 yuan per ton per week, and at the end of the week, the average price of enterprises was 4998 yuan per ton per week, with a weekly increase of 1.24%.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Toluene market prices were stable in the early part of this week. Due to the impact of crude oil on the weekend price rise, the current market mainstream transaction price is around 5130 yuan/ton, toluene has stopped falling and rising. Spring inspection of domestic toluene factories has been completed, parking devices have been started, and the market supply has increased. Some downstream units of toluene were put into operation in July, and the demand side in June is still the reason that restricts the rise of toluene price.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil, oil prices rose first and then fell this week, volatility is still large. Brent crude oil prices have been volatile in the vicinity of $60/ton for nearly half a month, and the market is very wait-and-see. Brent crude oil ranges from $60.04 to $63.29 per ton. The weekly low price appears on June 13 and the weekly amplitude is about 5.14%.

Downstream, the domestic PX start-up rate is more than 70%, more than 50% of the products need to be imported, PX external closing price remains low, domestic PX market price trend is temporarily stable; TDI market, spot delivery is slightly cold, downstream customers love futures orders, due to the abundant stock of terminal raw materials, in addition, under the environmental protection policy to control warehousing, merchants take the lead, TDI market is stable. There is no obvious improvement in overall demand, which restricts the rise of toluene Market price.

3. Future Market Forecast

The toluene analyst of Business, Social and Chemical Branch believes that in general, the toluene market is expected to remain volatile next week. Next week, the focus will be on whether US crude oil can sustain a $50/barrel rebound. It is doubtful that US crude oil lacks the continuity of a real positive rebound. Under the pressure of pessimistic expectations in the macro market, the road to a rebound in oil prices is bumpy. The downstream PX valuation is about to change month, and it is expected that the pressure of price decline will be greater. The probability of TDI stabilization next week is higher. Waiting for the guidance of factory information, the demand side is still the reason that restricts the rise of toluene price.