“The current price is more futures pricing, since 2003 will no longer be priced in the relationship between supply and demand, and with the addition of U.S. shale oil, supply factors become more and more complex,” the prisoner’s dilemma also includes a OPEC member internal conflict and production. “. Besides, even if OPEC production, whether Russia can cut? Oil prices stabilize, once exceeded 50 U.S. dollars / barrel, the United States will therefore continue to resume production of shale oil.” Noah’s chief research officer Jin Hainian told the first financial reporter.

“This year the price in 60~75 dollars / barrel shock, again to return to the history of $100 is already impossible, downside risks from Russia, if it does not cooperate with production, so it is likely that OPEC will tear up the cut oath, oil prices are likely to fall again to about $43, or even return to $30. In addition, the demand side also depends on global economic trends, and Trump came to power after the infrastructure investment policy and manufacturing revival policies can be implemented.” Senior foreign exchange and commodity traders Xian Jingtang told the first financial reporter.

Fortunately, the global demand is rising, which may also make up oil prices steady in the year 2017.

“At least the U.S. economic recovery is relatively stable, China is not so bad, such as India and other emerging market countries started to recover, but emerging market volume except India is relatively small, so the demand is not.” Jin Hainian said.

Pay attention to seasonal rebound in oil prices

The energy industry buyer analysts, senior U.S. stock traders Situ Jie told the first financial reporter said, must pay attention to the price of seasonal opportunities

“Now the hedge funds are doing more than crude oil, oil prices are short of the unknown risk of future buffer, but history shows that hedge funds tend to be on, oil prices may be the” $20 range “frightened courage.”

He said the analysis, general American oil peak is two – year 6~7 month summer peak travel; two is the annual winter heating peak. “December is more subtle in oil refining industry. The large consumption of heating in winter heating oil refinery, but not willing to start buying large quantities of crude oil in December, because of the high crude oil inventories, the end will produce excess inventory tax. As a result, the refinery will try to use the existing inventory, after starting the year began wantonly hoarding of oil. General oil hoarding peaked in 2~3 months. If there is involved in the geopolitical factors, the price may be ascribed to April.”

In 2017 the global central bank easing or limited