According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market fell first and then rose this week, with an overall upward trend. From August 8th to August 15th, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 9100 yuan/ton to 9166 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.73% during the period. At the beginning of the week, the market trend was relatively stable. In the middle of the week, the atmosphere in the spot market began to improve, boosted by the rise of downstream markets. Domestic main refineries raised their ex factory prices one after another, driving a slight rebound in spot market prices. As of the weekend, due to the downstream still being in a state of urgent procurement, the support for the market was limited, and spot prices generally rebounded. As of August 15th, the delivery price in the Shandong Luzhong area was between 9300-9500 yuan/ton.

On the cost side: During this cycle, crude oil prices fluctuated mainly within a range. On the one hand, OPEC+announced a cumulative production increase of 2.3 million barrels per day until September, marking the organization’s exit from its plan to reduce production by over 2.2 million barrels per day one year ahead of schedule. This news is bearish for the oil market. On the other hand, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is affecting the oil market, and global macro data is bearish. In addition, the fundamental impact of the upcoming off-season of US summer demand will continue to put pressure on the crude oil market price. As of August 14th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures September contract was reported at $63.96 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October contract is $66.84 per barrel.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged.
The 160000 tons/year butadiene unit of Fushun Petrochemical is operating normally, shut down, and currently has no export plans. It is expected to restart in October.
Shenghong Refining’s 200000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with a reduction of 150 yuan/ton and an implementation of 9200 yuan/ton.
The 90000 tons/year butadiene plant of Satellite Chemical is operating normally, with a reduction of 150 yuan/ton and an implementation of 9200 yuan/ton.
On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 15th, the market situation of Shunding rubber has slightly increased. Downstream urgent inquiries, market sentiment has rebounded, and the futures price of Shunding rubber has fluctuated and consolidated. Market transactions are mainly small orders, and merchant offers have slightly increased by around 50-100 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream prices for butadiene rubber in Sichuan, Dushanzi, and Lande are 11700~11800 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: The Fushun petrochemical plant is scheduled for maintenance this week and is expected to resume in October. However, due to the recent abundant supply of imported goods, the favorable supply situation is limited. From the demand side, the downstream rubber market has performed well, providing some support to the market, but overall maintaining rigid demand procurement. Overall, there is limited positive news for the butadiene market in terms of supply and demand, and it is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate within a certain range in the future.