Recent trend of urea price

As can be seen from the figure above, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose this week, from 2720.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2780.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 2.21%, and a year-on-year increase of 67.81%. Overall, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index at 129.30 on July 16.

Upstream support strengthened, downstream demand slowed down, supply side was tight, printing label stimulated

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Urea in Yangmei plain has not been quoted this week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2780 yuan / ton this weekend, up 60 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea has not been quoted this week.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas increased slightly, from 4093.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4246.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 3.73%, 72.40% compared with the same period last year; The price of steam coal rose slightly, from 982.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1005.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 2.29%, 69.33% over the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 4450.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4516.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 1.50%, 45.70% over the same period last year. Melamine in the lower reaches of urea rose slightly this week, from 11633.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 12200.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 4.87%.

In terms of demand, there is a small amount of topdressing in North and East China, but the agricultural demand is general; The downstream compound fertilizer, rubber sheet factory and melamine enterprise started well, and most of them were purchased and used at any time, and followed up at a proper amount. From the aspect of supply: in the near future, the production of urea enterprises has been reduced and resumed alternately, the recovery of start-up is slow, the daily output is about 160000 tons, and the supply side is tight. At the same time, enterprise inventory and social inventory are also maintained at a low position. International aspect: India announced the fifth urea import bidding in the year on the evening of July 13 (Tuesday), opened the bid on July 22, and scheduled the shipment on August 31, which boosted the domestic market mentality. On the whole, the cost support of urea is strengthened, the downstream demand is weakened, but the supply is tight, the printing standard is stimulated, and the market price may reach the peak again.

India standard boost, future price bullish

In late July, the urea market in Shandong may rise slightly. According to urea analysts of business news agency, at present, the agricultural demand in various regions has declined, the industrial demand has followed up steadily, and the downstream businesses have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high price urea, but the urea plant maintenance is still tight, the supply is tight, the printing standard is landing, the domestic market mentality has been boosted, and the market price in the future may fluctuate slightly.

Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (July 19): 686.67 yuan / ton

On July 19, the price of sulfuric acid Market in Shandong increased by 16.67 yuan / ton, or 2.49%, compared with the quotation on July 16. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the sulfur market in the upstream has been rising step by step recently, and the cost support is good. Moreover, the bromine market in the downstream is also rising steadily, which has a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid.

Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong may rise slightly, and the average price is about 690 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market continued to decline this week, with the decline increasing. The market was 7804 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the average price at the weekend was 7654 yuan / T, down 1.91%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business agency, the propylene market this week is affected by the cost side, and the price of the company is down by 100-200 yuan / day this week compared with last week. The current market mainstream quotation is 7600-7700 yuan / ton, and the low-end price falls below 7000 yuan / ton. Downstream on demand procurement, general demand, cost side of the direct leading propylene market for nearly a week of price reduction.

This week, oil prices were still fermenting as OPEC and OPEC + reached an agreement on production increase, and worries over the virus of epidemic variation deepened the decline in oil prices. Crude oil fell 3.9 percent this week, which has a significant impact on the market’s profitability.

This week, PP prices fell slightly, the downstream enterprises started low and demand was scarce. The follow-up of purchasing was weak, and the response to high price sources was poor, with a decline of 0.19% in the week.

Acrylic acid prices continued to rise this week. Due to the overhaul of some enterprises, the spot supply was tight, downstream on demand procurement, the market trading and investment rhythm was active, and the price rose steadily. The increase was 1.39% in the week, which supported propylene.

This week, the price of propylene oxide rose sharply, the propylene oxide manufacturers were not pressured, the downstream polyether orders were stable and medium increment, and the market was up. The middle and lower reaches just needed to follow up steadily, the market was not pushed up, and the price rose 10.4 in the week, which supported the propylene market.

In general, the rise and fall of propylene downstream are mutual, and the overall demand level is not changed much.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analyst of the chemical branch of the business society thinks: the propylene market is dominated by crude oil price, closely pays close attention to the change of oil price, and the probability of further low short-term price is high.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of July 13, the factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was RMB 17566 / T, and the average price increased by 1133 yuan / ton, or 6.90% compared with the price on July 12. Compared with July 1, the average price increased by 1500 yuan / ton, or 9.34%.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of July 13, the average factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 7800 yuan / ton, and the average price increased by 1134 yuan / T, or 17% compared with that of July 12, 2021 (reference price of 6666 yuan / ton), and the average price increased by 934 yuan / ton, or 13.59% compared with the price of July 1, 2021 (reference price: 6866 yuan / ton).

At present, the domestic plant is more common in the linkage production of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate. It takes propylene oxide as the main raw material, and produces dimethyl carbonate by ester exchange method, and also produces propylene glycol. Therefore, there is a certain correlation between the market of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate. Here is a brief introduction to the market of the products in the next few days:

In early July, although the domestic market of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate increased slightly, the overall trend remained stable. Until the beginning of this week, Shaanxi and Shandong factories have been shut down and repaired. In a while, the supply of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate has decreased, the supply tension in the field is rising rapidly. The market price of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate has risen greatly. The daily increase of malondiol and dimethyl carbonate is more than 1000 yuan / ton, as of the 13th day, The average price of propylene glycol rose to 17566 yuan / ton, up 6.90% a day compared with the previous working day, and dimethyl carbonate rose to 7800 yuan / T, up 17% a day compared with the previous working day. Downstream affected by the continuous fear of rising, the current goods are relatively positive, and there is no obvious pressure on the supply side. The overall market of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate are mainly high-level operation.

In the upstream of epichlorohydrin, the overall trend of epichlorohydrin market in June fell, down 4.90%, and the overall trend fell first and then rose. In July, propylene oxide continued to rise in late June, and rose slowly. In the early week, the propylene oxide manufacturers were not under pressure, while the downstream polyether orders were stable and medium increment, and the market was rising. The middle and lower reaches just needed to follow up steadily, and the market was not pushed up. At present, the market supply was tight, and the downstream follow-up was positive, and the market continued to rise. On December 12, the main quotation of epichlorohydrin market in Shandong was 15200-15300 yuan / ton. According to the data on the business agency’s bulk list, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises as of July 12 was 16033.33 yuan / ton, up 2.39% compared with last Monday (July 5)

Future forecast

At present, the supply of Shida Yankuang and Shandong wells has been gradually increased in the process of load lifting. In addition, the downstream demand of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate may slow down in the later period under the high level. Therefore, the analysts of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate of business society believe that the market of malondiol and dimethyl carbonate may fluctuate at high level in the short term, and the price will have a downward risk.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the price of mixed xylene continued to rise this week. On July 4, the price of mixed xylene was 5920 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (July 11) was 6000 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton or 1.35% compared with last week; It was up 63.04% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

The recent continuous rise of crude oil has driven the trend of mixed xylene to follow. However, the domestic demand for mixed xylene was insufficient and the growth was limited. In terms of external market, as of July 9, the price of imported mixed xylene from South Korea was 816.5 US dollars / ton, up 36 US dollars / ton, or 4.61%, from July 2; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $834 / T, up US $33 / T, or 4.12%, from July 2.

In terms of crude oil, the OPEC + meeting was cancelled at the beginning of the week, and there was no plan to further increase production for the time being, and international oil prices rose. However, the market is worried that the excessively fast rising oil price will trigger a price war again, and the crude oil market will cool down rapidly. On July 2, Brent fell 0.62 USD / barrel, or 0.81%; WTI fell 0.6 USD / barrel, or 0.8%.

Downstream, PX market, domestic PX prices remained stable this week, at 7100 yuan / ton, up 47.92% year on year. As of July 9, the closing price of Asian region is 917-919 USD / T FOB Korea and 935-937 USD / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, PTA in East China rose first and then fell this week. On Friday (July 9), the price was 5044.55 yuan / ton, down 0.84% from last week and up 39.85% from the same period last year.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox remained stable this week. On Friday (July 9), the price of ox in East China was 6200 yuan / ton, up 39.01% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Downstream demand remains rigid, and it is expected that the price of mixed xylene will follow the trend of crude oil in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, xylene plant maintenance trends, port inventory and downstream demand (gasoline market).

The contradiction between supply and demand is prominent. Although the crude oil price fluctuated at a high level and rose slightly over the weekend, it is still difficult to support the MTBE market, and the MTBE market price fell significantly for several consecutive days. According to the data of business news agency, as of July 9, the price of MTBE was 5946 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 0.78% and a year-on-year increase of 55.13%.

MTBE market continued to decline, with a decline of 40-100 yuan / ton. Crude oil rose slightly, but it is difficult to give market support. In the near future, the contradiction between supply and demand still exists, and the sales pressure of merchants is increasing, especially in the northern region. Although the profits are sold one after another, the transaction has not improved significantly, and the merchants continue to adjust. In East China, under the pressure of the continuous decline in the north, coupled with the weak demand in the region, businesses stick to the disadvantage and follow into the decline.

In terms of external market, as of July 8, the closing price of Asian MTBE market was reduced by US $30 / T compared with the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at US $772-774 / T. The closing price of MTBE market in Europe decreased by 33 US dollars / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at 790.5-791 US dollars / ton. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States was down by US $7.88/t compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf offshore price closed at US $788.03-788.38/t (221.98-222.08 cents / gal).

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia FOB Singapore 772-774 USD / T – US $30 / T

U.S.A FOB Bay US $88.03-788.38/t – US $7.88/t

Europe FOB ARA 790.5-791 USD / T – 33 USD / T

In the near future, crude oil stopped falling and went up, which gave some support to the market. In addition, the recent decline was slightly larger, and low prices attracted a small amount of purchase intention of some businesses. MTBE analysts from the business community believe that the domestic MTBE market will still be mainly in a narrow range in the short term.

On July 6, international oil prices fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was 73.37 US dollars / barrel, down 1.79 US dollars or 2.4%. The settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was 74.53 US dollars / barrel, down 1.64 us dollars or 2.2%. Oil prices rose sharply on Monday after the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) called off the meeting because they could not reach an agreement on increasing supply. However, it turned lower on Tuesday, mainly because the market was worried that some OPEC member countries would increase production; Driven by high oil prices, the US shale oil supply is expected to increase.

This round of OPEC ministerial meeting is full of twists and turns. Since July 1, i.e. last Thursday, the meeting began to negotiate, because UAE opposes a new production increase agreement (400000 B / D per month from August to December this year, and 2 million B / D by the end of this year), the meeting has been postponed to last Friday, but the meeting still has no result; Until the meeting reopened on Monday, the UAE was always opposed to the latest production increase agreement. The meeting was forced to stop and oil prices continued to rise. On Monday, the settlement price of Brent crude oil rose to US $77.16/barrel, up US $0.99 or 1.3%.

However, the wind direction of the market changed suddenly on Tuesday, and the OPEC meeting failed to reach an agreement again and again, which made the market lose confidence in the future direction of OPEC. Even if the future policies were reluctantly implemented, the market also had doubts about the implementation of the member states’ production control policies. If the UAE increases production, other member states may follow suit, which will make OPEC’s effect of balancing oil supply in the oil market fail.

In addition, the oil price is at a high level, the market shows more concern about the increase of shale oil production in the United States, the U.S. economy continues to pick up, the inventory data keeps falling, and the market expects that the U.S. shale oil producers will continue to increase supply. Due to the comfortable price, the U.S. production has returned to about 11 million B / D, but compared with the production of about 13 million B / D in 2019, the U, There is still a lot of room for improvement.

In the future, the business community believes that short-term oil prices are intertwined. Although the global economy is still in the process of recovery, there are more risks in the supply side. Therefore, there is a great deal of uncertainty in the oil market. Guided by the news, the short-term oil market may continue to fluctuate and widen its amplitude. In the medium term, it is generally expected that the oil price will continue to challenge the $80 level.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of chloroform rose slightly in June. At the beginning of the month, the price was 4250 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price of chloroform was 4350 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 2.35% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

The price of raw material liquid chlorine is low, and the cost support is weak. The lower price of methanol also formed a certain negative atmosphere for chloroform. According to the business news agency, as of the end of June, the mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong Province was around 850 yuan / ton, down 58.54% from 2050 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; Methanol price dropped from 2665 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2555 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall decline of 4.13%.

In June, China entered the high temperature stage in summer, and the demand for refrigerant had a certain rigid support, which formed a certain support for trichloromethane as a whole.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that the current cost side support is weak, the demand side still has support, it is expected that the price of chloroform will be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. The average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation this week is 2800.00 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 88.89 on July 2.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 2450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Anhui Badou potassium chloride weekend sales offer 3150 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the offer is temporarily stable. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction of the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of July, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly. The KCl market is facing the pressure of three big mountains, namely, Hong Kong’s large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. KCl analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term KCl market, the KCl market may be dominated by high consolidation.

On July 1, international oil prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market at US $75.23/barrel, up US $1.76 or 2.40%. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 75.84 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 1.22 U.S. dollars or 1.63%. WTI broke through $76 in the session, reaching a new high since October 2018. At the macro level, is the economic data good for support? U.S. stocks rose sharply and the expectation of economic recovery boosted oil prices. In addition, OPEC members had different opinions, and the meeting was postponed to Friday. In the second half of the year, OPEC’s supply tone was still inclined to high oil prices, which made the market warm up.

On Thursday local time, the latest data released by the U.S. Department of labor showed that 364000 people applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week ending June 26, a decrease of 51000 compared with the previous week, and far lower than the 390000 expected by the market. In addition, PMI data was also eye-catching, with the final PMI value of 62.1 in the United States in May, reaching a new high for the second consecutive month. The favorable economic data boosted US stocks to a new high, and the premium of risky assets represented by crude oil was also greatly pushed up.

In addition to the positive expectation of economic recovery, the ambiguous internal supply policy of OPEC + on the supply side has also brought upward momentum to oil prices. The OPEC + internal meeting, which should have been held on Thursday, is quite important and may be related to the main tone of OPEC + supply policy in the second half of the year.

On Thursday, news came from the market that there was disagreement between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which forced the OPEC + meeting to be postponed to Friday. The specific point of divergence is a proposal agreed by Saudi Arabia and Russia. According to the proposal, oil production will increase by another 400000 barrels a day from August to December, and the total daily production will increase by 2 million barrels. The proposal is relatively conservative, and lower than the previous market expectation of 500000 barrels of supply, the market is more bullish atmosphere.

Recently, the international oil market has seen a lot of good news. Crude oil analysts from business news believe that oil prices may continue to hover at a high level in the short term. On the one hand, it is driven by the expectation of economic recovery. On the other hand, it is expected that OPEC’s main tone of relaxing production reduction in the second half of the year may still be relatively conservative, because Saudi Arabia and Russia have high expectations of high oil prices. Many institutions also generally predict that the oil price may exceed $80 in the second half of the year. In short, the oil price may fluctuate from high to high in the short term, but in the medium and long term, the oil price still has action power.