On May 24, 2021, the price of metallic silicon (441) remained stable. According to the data of business news agency, on May 24, the average market price of domestic metallic silicon (441) was 13991.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the average market price of 1 on Friday, and increased by 7.49% compared with the average market price of 13016.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of may (5.1).

On the 24th, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 13300-13400 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 13700-13900 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 13800-13900 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 14600-14800 yuan / ton, and that in Tianjin port is 14000-14200 yuan / ton, The price range of silicon metal in Huangpu port is 14100-14200 yuan / ton.

In the early stage, the price of silicon metal has risen. At present, the price is close to the position on the eve of the correction, and the rise begins to show resistance.

Benefit factor

1. Social inventory continues to move down

It is reported that by the 21st, the social inventory of silicon metal in the three places had decreased by 14000 tons compared with the beginning of this month.

2. Yunnan power rationing

According to a pre notice of emergency peak shifting preparation issued by Yunnan power grid on May 10, at present, the main reservoirs in Yunnan are overdrawn seriously, the coal storage of thermal power continues to decline, the power generation is seriously less than expected, and there is a power shortage of about 700000 kilowatts at the peak of power consumption on that day. Emergency peak load shifting and power rationing are started for local and state power enterprises, and the peak load shifting and power rationing amount is 10-30%.

Due to the tense power supply situation in Yunnan, whether Yunnan metal silicon plant can resume production on schedule in wet season is still uncertain due to many factors such as rainfall and power distribution in the province. It is expected that large-scale production will resume in early June. In addition, there is a great possibility that Yunnan Province will postpone the commissioning of the built-in 40000 ton polysilicon project and the time to reach the production capacity.

3. The rise of polysilicon is fascinating

The downstream polysilicon has shown a strong performance in the near future, with a step up. Polysilicon manufacturers are mainly in stable operation. Two major polysilicon manufacturers in Xinjiang have their polysilicon equipment overhauled, and one company in Inner Mongolia has reduced its production load, which affected part of the output. As a result, the supply of polysilicon was relatively tight in May, but this week has not eased. In the case of material shortage sentiment continues to heat up, the price rises naturally, the price of single crystal rises more strongly, and the price of long-term orders is locked, but the price of loose orders is generally high, further pushing up the expectation of silicon material rise. The price of domestic products is generally close to the 100000 mark. The price of imported polysilicon continues to rise this week. The average transaction price is over US $23 / kg, and there are scattered offers to US $24 / kg.

On May 14, Longji offered 4.39 yuan per chip for G1 and 4.49 yuan per chip for M6. On May 20, after Longji’s price increase, Zhonghuan raised its price again. Among 170 thickness silicon chips, G1 (158.75mm) offered 4.7 yuan per chip, up 0.44 yuan or 10% from May 10; M6 (166mm) quoted 4.85 yuan / piece, up 0.405 yuan, or 9.1%. The price of silicon wafer has been rising repeatedly, which has also brought support to silicon materials.

Negative factors

After the surge of non-ferrous products, affected by the macro-control news, it gradually entered the callback stage. After the surge of aluminum ingots, the downstream aluminum alloy is under more pressure, and the price transmission is not smooth, so there is little chance of rapidly increasing the operating rate. At present, the raw materials of aluminum alloy plants are mostly purchased on demand, mainly just needed.

Future forecast

On the supply side, the output of silicon metal decreased slightly in April, and the social inventory of silicon metal showed a downward trend in early May.

Recently, the price of aluminum began to callback after the sharp rise, and the price of aluminum alloy in the lower reaches may fall down, which has the possibility of price reverse conduction under the environment; Fortunately, the price of polysilicon in the lower reaches has risen, and the silicon market is still supported by rising fundamentals.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of EPS ordinary material was 11450 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 11575 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a price increase of 1.09% and 50.08% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The trend of domestic EPS was slightly stronger, the styrene goods were tight, the spot price continued to be high, the EPS price increase was limited due to demand suppression, the gross profit space continued to shrink, some terminal factories were under started and the finished product inventory was large, the market transaction was just needed, and the overall transaction was insufficient.

As of May 20, Jiangsu’s common material was 11800 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton, or 1.72% on a month on month basis, and its fuel was 12300 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton, or 1.65% on a month on month basis. On the cost side, the downstream demand conflict is obvious, but the supply and demand side of pure benzene is relatively strong, and the delivery is approaching next week. It is expected that styrene will rise first and then decline next week.

3、 Future forecast

The turnover of EPS market continues to shrink, the merchants are cautious and wait-and-see, the circulation speed of goods is slow, and it is expected that the domestic EPS price will be in a stalemate in the short term.

On May 18, methanol in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange closed at 2690 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton or 1.47% from the previous day. The methanol spot market was mainly in the high position, with a slight decrease in some areas. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of May 18, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2730 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 14.23% and a year-on-year increase of 64.71%.

At present, the delivery situation of main production enterprises is different, some devices resume production, and local supply increases. At present, the crude oil is running strongly, some commodity futures are adjusted back, and the domestic methanol spot market is mainly adjusted.

Summary of methanol market prices by Region as of May 18

Region, price

Qinghai Area 2260-2330 yuan / ton ex factory cash

Shanxi area 2450-2500 yuan / ton factory cash

Liaoning Province 2530-2550 yuan / ton delivered to the factory

Fujian area 2790 yuan / ton, including tax

Two lakes area Ex factory reference 2750-2800 yuan / ton ex factory cash

Anhui Province 2780-2800 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan Province 2570 yuan / ton factory cash

On the downstream side, the formaldehyde market was stable and fell. Dimethyl ether market prices continue to push up. The decline of domestic acetic acid market continued. At present, the start-up of acetic acid industry is at a high level, and the inventory quantity of spot manufacturers is relatively sufficient, while the downstream factories still digest the contract, the new orders in the market are insufficient, the market trends are still negative, and the market transaction price is passively lower. MTBE market is mainly stable with limited fluctuation. Crude oil continued to go up, giving support to the market mentality. In addition, after the recent price drop to a low level, some downstream businesses took advantage of low prices to replenish. With the rise of other raw materials, the price gap between MTBE and alkylation and other raw materials narrowed, and the sales pressure of Northern businesses slightly reduced.

In the external market, as of May 17, the closing price of CFR China methanol was 317.50-318.50 US dollars / ton; CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closing price 370.00-371.00 USD / ton. US Gulf methanol closed at 110.50-111.50 cents per gallon; The closing price of methanol in FOB Rotterdam is 307.00-308.00 euro / ton.

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia CFR China 317.50-318.50 USD / T 0 USD / ton

Asia CFR Southeast Asia 370.00-371.00 USD / T 0 USD / ton

Europe and America Gulf of America 110.50-111.50 cents / gal 0 cents per gallon

Europe FOB Rotterdam 307.00-308.00 euro / ton 0 euro / ton

Methanol futures callback finishing, methanol spot market upward weak, short-term demand is difficult to have a big boost, business community methanol analysts predict that the short-term methanol market into a high finishing stage.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the figure above, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China dropped from 4716.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4683.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 33.34 yuan / ton, or 0.71%, up 97.05% over the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell this week, with the calcium carbide commodity index at 122.71 on May 14.

Strong upstream support and strong downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganone’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend is 4750 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; The price of calcium carbide offered by Inner Mongolia Zoomlion this weekend is 4700 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Ningxia Xingping’s offer for calcium carbide this weekend was 4600 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton from the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, the price of raw materials in the upstream market was high this week. The price of Xiaoliao is 1200 yuan / ton this weekend, which is 250 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; At the end of this week, Sinochem quoted 1200 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton from the beginning of this week; Dali’s offer this weekend is 1300 yuan / ton, which is 300 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week. The price of upstream raw materials rose sharply, and the cost support was strong, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory price high consolidation this week. This week, the price of PVC was 9250.00 yuan / ton, up 61.22% compared with the same period last year. This week, the price of PVC was consolidated at a high level, the market was good, and the downstream was more active in purchasing calcium carbide. On the whole, this week’s PVC market had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Double positive, shock rise in the future

In late May, the calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon rose sharply, and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. Downstream PVC market recent high consolidation, the weekend has an upward trend. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in late May.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of May 17, the average factory price reference of domestic butanone market was 9466 yuan / ton, which was 533 yuan / ton higher than that of May 4 (8933 yuan / ton), an increase of 5.97%.

After the festival, butanone rose 6% in half a month

After the May Day holiday, the domestic butanone market rose slightly on the first day of construction. On the 6th and 7th, the offer price of butanone factory rose by 200-300 yuan / ton. Factory closures are now higher than before. In May, the operating rate of domestic butanone factories was always low, which was also the main factor for the steady increase of butanone price since the beginning of May. The tight supply on the floor gave butanone price upward momentum. The domestic downstream demand for butanone was mostly just demand. The export orders also gave butanone some support. Some butanone factories continued to be tight in stock. On the 13th of the middle of the month, the domestic demand for butanone was mostly just demand, The quotation of butanone plant rose slightly again, with an increase of 200-400 yuan / ton.

At present, the domestic supply of butanone is still insufficient. The resumption of Northwest maintenance plant is delayed for several days, which stimulates the market. The domestic butanone market offers are mainly firm. As of the 17th, the market performance of butanone in South China was strong, with the mainstream ex factory price of 9650-9750 yuan / ton. The market situation of butanone in East China was stable, with the mainstream ex factory price of 9350-9450 yuan / ton. The market situation of butanone in North China was stable, with the mainstream ex factory price of 9150-9250 yuan / ton.

According to the business news agency, the following is the reference price of butanone in some parts of China in May

product region May 1st May 17th Up and down

Butanone East China 8900 yuan / ton 9400 yuan / ton + five hundred

Butanone south China 9200 yuan / ton 9700 yuan / ton + five hundred

Butanone North China 8700 yuan / ton 9200 yuan / ton + five hundred

Increase of butanone market in the later stage of construction to save downside risk

At present, the high price of butanone is mainly supported by the shortage of supply. In late May, if some parking factories will start up smoothly, the shortage of spot butanone market will be alleviated, and the support point of high market price will be weakened. Therefore, butanone analysts of business community believe that in late May, when the supply tension is relieved, the butanone market may have downward risks.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of May 14, the average price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 16166 yuan / ton. Compared with the price of May 5 (the average price of n-butanol reference is 13000 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 3166 yuan / T, and the increase was 24.36% after the saving.

Spot tension just need to support the n-butanol after saving the market rose by more than 24 percent

After May 1 Labor Day, the domestic market of n-butanol rose sharply, with a total increase of 19.54% in the first three days after the festival. Then the market continued to keep steadily upward, and the low-end price of the market continued to rise. As of the 14th, the Post-Saving n-butanol market has increased by 24.36% compared with the pre-saving price.

The reason for the sharp increase in the market price of n-butanol is mainly due to the maintenance of the n-butanol unit after saving. The overall operating rate of the plant is low. The downstream butyl acrylate users just need to purchase raw materials, and the demand is stable to support n-butanol upward. The spot supply of n-butanol is tight, and the market has been in a situation of supply and demand. Therefore, the price of the quotation of the factory rose all the way, and the price of the plant rose in the first three days, June, July and August, The market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province rose to 14700-16000 yuan / ton, which was up 1700-3000 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. Then in the next week, the price difference in the n-butanol market decreased continuously, and the low-end price continued to rise. On the 10th, the factory price of n-butanol in lihuayi, Shandong Province, was increased to 16000 yuan / ton, up 1300 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day, and the overall quotation of n-butanol in Shandong Province was around 16000 yuan / ton. 12. On the 13th, the normal butanol market in Shandong Province remained in high position and stable operation. The price of individual factories continued to increase slightly, with an increase of 200-300 yuan / ton. As of the 14th day, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was about 16000-16300 yuan / ton, and the average price was 16166 yuan / T. compared with the pre-festival price, the average price has increased by 3166 yuan / T, and the total increase after the saving reached 24.36%

Upstream, on May 13, the propylene market price in Shandong Province rose slightly. According to the price chart of business agency, the propylene price in Shandong Province rose continuously in the first ten days in April, and the price in the second ten days fell sharply, and remained stable at the end of the month. The first two days of May 1 period continued to stabilize. From March to 7th, the price was about 50 yuan / ton upward every day. The price remained stable since September 9. Today, the price rose by about 50 yuan / ton. The current market transaction is between 8330-8450 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8350 yuan / ton. On May 12, the prices of propylene in the United States and Asia were stable, and their impact on the propylene market was limited. There is no pressure on the stock of propylene market, some units are still under maintenance, and the supply is slightly tight, and some enterprises suspend quotation.

In the short term, the market of n-butanol will be kept in a tight situation, and the market will be put into operation at high level

At present, the spot supply of n-butanol is still tight, but the market price almost touches the ceiling, and the downstream is more and more optimistic about high price. The purchasing is calm compared with the previous days. The driving force of the continuous rise of n-butanol is slightly insufficient, but it is still necessary for the plant to resume work, and the market of n-butanol will continue to be tense in the short term. Therefore, analysts of normal butanol of business agency believe that in the short term, the domestic normal butanol market will generally operate at high level.

Price of o-benzene rises again after the festival

According to the data monitoring of business association, the market of o-benzene continued the previous trend, and the price of o-benzene rose again after the festival. As of May 14, Sinopec’s price of o-xylene was 6200.00 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton or 5.08% compared with 5900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (May 1). After the festival, there was a strong atmosphere of commodity speculation, the cost of raw materials remained high, and the price of o-benzene continued to rise.

Strong cost support in the upstream of industrial chain

Since April, the crude oil market has continued to push up, the cost side support has been strengthened, which has driven the aromatics industry chain products to continue to rise, and the price of mixed xylene has fluctuated. The cost of o-xylene continues to be high, and the pressure of domestic o-xylene loss is greater. Since May, the rise of crude oil and mixed xylene prices has slowed down. With the rise of o-benzene prices, the theoretical profit loss of o-benzene has narrowed, and the rising momentum of o-benzene has weakened.

The price of o-xylene rises after the festival

Trade name Quotation type Port Price date

O-xylene FOB US Gulf US $909.56/t 2021-05-07

O-xylene CFR China US $805.00/t 2021-05-07

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia 795.00 USD / T 2021-05-07

O-xylene FOB the republic of korea US $845.00/t 2021-05-07

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp US $935.00/t 2021-05-07

O-xylene FOB US Gulf US $909.56/t 2021-04-30

O-xylene CFR China US $800.00/t 2021-04-30

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia 795.00 USD / T 2021-04-30

O-xylene FOB the republic of korea US $835.00/t 2021-04-30

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp US $935.00/t 2021-04-30

It can be seen from the external quotation trend that the external price of o-xylene rose slightly after the festival. Domestic o-benzene port high inventory, o-benzene slowly to inventory, external market stimulate domestic o-benzene market, domestic o-benzene market slowly rise.

Future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst of business news agency, believes that affected by the rise of crude oil, the price of mixed xylene fluctuates and rises, the cost of raw materials of o-xylene continues to rise, and the theoretical profit of o-xylene is in serious loss. With the continuous rise of o-xylene price, the theoretical profit of o-xylene rises, the downward pressure of o-xylene market increases, and the rising power weakens. In terms of external market, the external price of o-benzene rose slightly, which was good for the domestic o-benzene market and stimulated the domestic o-benzene market to rise slowly. On the whole, the high cost of o-benzene continues to rise, which drives the price of domestic o-benzene to rise. The external market stimulates the price of domestic o-benzene. The downward pressure of domestic o-benzene is small, and the price of o-benzene is expected to rise in the future.

Spot market: according to the monitoring of the business community, the quotation of pure polyester yarn market is basically stable in the near future, with some stable prices rising. The price of 32S pure polyester yarn in Shandong Province is about 14266.67 yuan / ton, and the delivery of polyester yarn is generally acceptable. The performance of large factories in Fujian and Jiangxi is slightly better, the orders of small and medium-sized factories are general, and the price is mainly stable. The main transaction focus of T32 in Fujian, Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 11900-12100 yuan / ton, In Hebei Province, it is 11200-11400 yuan / ton. In the near future, Dahua imitated yarn has been sold smoothly, the supply of 32S and 38S is tight, some textile enterprises have arranged for a single month or so, and the export has also increased.

Upstream polyester staple fiber: in the near future, the price of polyester staple fiber will return to the wait-and-see market, and the overall purchase intention is weak, mainly in the form of rigid demand. In terms of price, the mainstream 1.4d in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 7000-7100 yuan / ton, the mainstream 1.4d in Fujian is around 7050-7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream 1.4d in Shandong and Hebei is around 7000-7100 yuan / ton.

Downstream demand: the price of grey cloth in this period fell slightly month on month. In recent years, the marketing has fallen month on month, the orders of grey cloth manufacturers have fallen month on month, and the price of grey cloth has dropped slightly. Among them: the market of blended fiber grey cloth continued to shrink, and the price index showed a slight downward trend. The spot transaction and order delivery of chemical fiber grey cloth continued to shrink, and the price index showed a slight downward trend. Recently, China Textile City fabric market clothing fabric sales continue to shrink, the mass fabric market turnover fell, the price fell slightly. In spring, the spot transaction of clothing fabric decreased significantly, while in summer, the order of fabric was partially retracted, and the price dropped slightly.

Suggestions: Polyester mainly follows the fluctuation of raw materials, and there is no active rising power. Some factories have been overhauled in the middle and late May, but the production capacity is not large, and the impact on the market is limited. The short-term stability of polyester staple fiber remains weak. Polyester yarn market quotation is chaotic, but the overall trading center is not volatile, processing fees are mostly maintained at around 5000 yuan / ton, terminal demand is limited, and subsequent trading may slow down. It is expected that the overall market will show a small downward trend. Due to the decrease of clothing retail sales in the United States and Japan, and the decrease of clothing retail sales in the European Union, it is difficult for textile terminal demand to increase substantially in the short term. Due to the high price of raw materials this year and the poor reception of new orders in the downstream, the demand in the downstream will be partially insufficient, the market trend will be flat, and the enthusiasm for fabric subscription will decline; In addition, due to the partial reduction of orders from some traders and weaving manufacturers, the supply of fabrics in the future spring decreased significantly, the spot transaction and order delivery shrank month on month, the partial batch orders of fabrics in summer fell slightly, the start-up rate of weaving enterprises was insufficient, and the production and sales of printing and dyeing enterprises were relatively limited. It is expected that the enthusiasm of public product subscription will drop slightly on a month on month basis, and the overall market transaction will show a small drop trend.

On the 10th, the mainstream quotation range of tin ingot in domestic spot tin market was 195500-197000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 196250 yuan / ton, down 1000 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

The U.S. dollar index fell to a two month low on Friday, and the non-ferrous metal market was boosted by most of the gains. At the beginning of this month, yinman mining announced the resumption of production. The supply expectation in the future was strengthened, and the Shanghai tin market was under pressure. Today, it went against the market. As of the close of the 10th, the settlement price of the main contract of Hushi 2107 was 196040 yuan / ton, down 1.22%.

The supply of goods in circulation in the market is still tight, and the lower reaches have a strong wait-and-see mentality. Stock before the festival consumed most of the market demand, the opening trading after the festival was limited, and the overall trading was cold. At present, the price of tin ingot is on the high side, which suppresses the enthusiasm of the downstream market. At present, it only maintains the rigid demand procurement.

In the future, the business association thinks that the domestic refined tin production growth is expected to be large in May, the tin ingot market supply is expected to be loose, and the future tin market is mainly under pressure.

After the festival, the domestic butadiene market slightly recovered due to downstream replenishment. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, as of May 8, the domestic butadiene market price was 6840 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 3.69% and a year-on-year increase of 59.23%.

The domestic butadiene market continued to consolidate, and the downstream replenishment after the festival supported the middlemen. The offer was relatively firm, so it was difficult to find the source of low price goods in the market. However, there is no obvious positive effect on the supply side. The short expectation of the medium-term market leads to the low inquiry price in the downstream and the market performance is relatively stalemate.

For enterprises, Sinopec East China butadiene supply price is 6900 yuan / ton; The 30000 T / a butadiene plant in Liaoyang Petrochemical plant has been running steadily, and a small amount of goods are exported. The latest price is 7150 yuan / T; Dalian Hengli Petrochemical’s 140000 T / a butadiene plant has been in stable operation, the source of goods is normal, and the price is stable at 7210 yuan / T. The 120000 T / a butadiene plant of Liaotong Chemical Co., Ltd. is in normal operation. The main source of goods is downstream pipeline transportation, and a small amount of goods are exported.

External price: as of May 7, the external price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB Korea closed at US $935-945 / T; CFR China closed at US $945-955 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe rose: FOB Rotterdam closed at 1195-1205 US dollars / ton, up 50 US dollars / ton; FD northwest Europe closed at 895-905 euros / ton, up 15 euros / ton.

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia FOB Korea 935-945 USD / T 0 USD / ton

Asia CFR China 945-955 USD / T 0 USD / ton

Europe FOB Rotterdam 1195-1205 USD / T $50 / T

Europe FD northwest Europe 895-905 euro / ton 15 euro / ton

In the future, domestic butadiene traders intend to push up the price significantly under the support of strong external price and downstream demand replenishment; However, the short-term market supply side did not show any obvious positive, and the mid-term market expectation was weak, the downstream inquiry was still cautious, and it was difficult for small single rigid demand to bring sustained boost to the market. Business community butadiene analysts expected that the domestic butadiene market would continue to consolidate in the short term.