1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. The average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation this week is 2800.00 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 88.89 on July 2.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 2450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Anhui Badou potassium chloride weekend sales offer 3150 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the offer is temporarily stable. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction of the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of July, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly. The KCl market is facing the pressure of three big mountains, namely, Hong Kong’s large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. KCl analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term KCl market, the KCl market may be dominated by high consolidation.

On July 1, international oil prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market at US $75.23/barrel, up US $1.76 or 2.40%. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 75.84 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 1.22 U.S. dollars or 1.63%. WTI broke through $76 in the session, reaching a new high since October 2018. At the macro level, is the economic data good for support? U.S. stocks rose sharply and the expectation of economic recovery boosted oil prices. In addition, OPEC members had different opinions, and the meeting was postponed to Friday. In the second half of the year, OPEC’s supply tone was still inclined to high oil prices, which made the market warm up.

On Thursday local time, the latest data released by the U.S. Department of labor showed that 364000 people applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week ending June 26, a decrease of 51000 compared with the previous week, and far lower than the 390000 expected by the market. In addition, PMI data was also eye-catching, with the final PMI value of 62.1 in the United States in May, reaching a new high for the second consecutive month. The favorable economic data boosted US stocks to a new high, and the premium of risky assets represented by crude oil was also greatly pushed up.

In addition to the positive expectation of economic recovery, the ambiguous internal supply policy of OPEC + on the supply side has also brought upward momentum to oil prices. The OPEC + internal meeting, which should have been held on Thursday, is quite important and may be related to the main tone of OPEC + supply policy in the second half of the year.

On Thursday, news came from the market that there was disagreement between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which forced the OPEC + meeting to be postponed to Friday. The specific point of divergence is a proposal agreed by Saudi Arabia and Russia. According to the proposal, oil production will increase by another 400000 barrels a day from August to December, and the total daily production will increase by 2 million barrels. The proposal is relatively conservative, and lower than the previous market expectation of 500000 barrels of supply, the market is more bullish atmosphere.

Recently, the international oil market has seen a lot of good news. Crude oil analysts from business news believe that oil prices may continue to hover at a high level in the short term. On the one hand, it is driven by the expectation of economic recovery. On the other hand, it is expected that OPEC’s main tone of relaxing production reduction in the second half of the year may still be relatively conservative, because Saudi Arabia and Russia have high expectations of high oil prices. Many institutions also generally predict that the oil price may exceed $80 in the second half of the year. In short, the oil price may fluctuate from high to high in the short term, but in the medium and long term, the oil price still has action power.

Commodity index: on June 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 88.35, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 17.53% compared with the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (May 8, 2019), and increased by 6.59% compared with the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the data of Business News Agency (100ppi. Com), in June, the price fluctuation of polyacrylamide was very small, no more than 1%, showing a trend of flat first, then down, and then up. On the 1st, the domestic mainstream reported 14383.33 yuan / ton, and on the 29th, the mainstream reported 14460 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of only 0.53%; Among them, the highest price of this month is 14383.33 yuan / ton, the lowest price is 14300 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude is 0.58%.

Upstream raw material: this month, the market of raw material acrylonitrile first rose rapidly, then fluctuated, then weakened slightly, and then remained stable: at the beginning of the month, the crude oil led to the rise of propylene, which led to the rise of acrylonitrile, with an increase of 3.87% in the first half of the month, and the price rose to 15040.00 yuan / ton on the 10th; In the second half of the month, the price dropped slightly by 1.47% to about 14930.00 yuan / ton, the market trading atmosphere was light, the cost support was general, the downstream demand performance was not strong, and the supply and demand situation was not affected by the device maintenance. The market has been stable for a while after the shock and decline.

Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. In April, the LPG civil market continued to rise sharply, and the price kept rising in the first half of the month, especially after the Qingming Festival holiday; However, in late April, the price of liquefied petroleum gas for civilian use showed a “slide” market, and remained stable after a 5-6% drop. In May, the LPG market experienced twists and turns, showing an overall upward trend; According to the data monitoring of the business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market on May 5 was 4066.67 yuan / ton, and on March 31 was 4143.33 yuan / ton, with an increase of 156.66 yuan / ton. In fact, the highest price in May was 4306.67 yuan / ton, and the lowest price was 4133.33 yuan / ton, with a monthly maximum amplitude of 4.02%. In June, at the beginning of the month, 4143.33 yuan / ton, the rise of international crude oil led Shandong civil gas market to stop falling and go up. After the Dragon Boat Festival, Shandong civil gas market was supported by good news and went up as a whole, but the price rise did not continue. Weak terminal demand brought obvious constraints to the market, and the upward route was blocked again. As of the 28th, the mainstream price of Shandong civil gas market was 4266.67 yuan / ton. In the second quarter, the domestic mainstream quotation of LPG fluctuated greatly, with the highest price of 4410 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 4000 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude of 10.25%.

Downstream demand: in this quarter, the environmental protection shutdown period of the previous quarter was extended, the inventory was consumed, and the price rose slightly. However, after the resumption of production, the production of the enterprise recovered, the inventory increased rapidly, and the change of downstream demand was still tepid, the polyacrylamide inventory accumulated, and the demand was weak, which played a reverse role on the market, And this quarter polyacrylamide has a small rise, mainly affected by changes in raw material prices. During the three months of this quarter, although some manufacturers occasionally stopped production, the overall inventory was sufficient, the demand was general, and the polyacrylamide market was generally weak.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, in addition to the end of the month due to the environmental protection shutdown, the production of water treatment plants in June was basically normal, the polyacrylamide inventory was sufficient, the demand did not change significantly, and the market had no obvious action. The only thing worth noting is that due to the sharp rise of crude oil in this quarter, the downstream industry chain rose, and the price of propylene also went up. As the downstream of propylene, the price of acrylonitrile rose to a certain extent. However, due to the weak promotion of the downstream, the upward range was small and the sustainability was not strong; As the downstream of acrylonitrile, the joint action of polyacrylamide weakened again, and the downstream demand was not strong, which led to the overall weak price; At the same time, the role of LPG price changes has not been correctly reflected. Overall, this month’s polyacrylamide market is weak and volatile, and the short-term changes in the future market will not be obvious, mainly stable.

Trade name: caprolactam

Latest price: 14000 yuan / ton

Commodity index: on June 30, the caprolactam commodity index was 70.42, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 29.58% compared with the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (March 2, 2017), and increased by 78.73% compared with the lowest point of 39.40 on April 7, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from March 1, 2017 to the present

Analysis points: caprolactam price is stable today. The price of raw material pure benzene continued to rise. Today, the price of pure benzene is 8100-8450 yuan / ton. As of June 30, the price of caprolactam liquid in Nanjing Dongfang was 14650 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit was in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit was in normal operation. Sinopec caprolactam liquid price 14300 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 14300 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year, the unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 14300 yuan / T. The 300000 t / a unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance.

Future forecast: due to the price of raw material pure benzene continues to rise, cost support is good, caprolactam supply is less. Caprolactam prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term.

Price analysis of this week (6.21-6.28, the same below)

According to the data of business news agency, the average price of domestic silicon metal (441) market on June 28 was 14350 yuan / ton, up 0.58% from 14266.67 yuan / ton on June 21, and 36.34% from last year.

The price of 441 ᦇ silicon in different regions on the 28th is as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Huangpu port area is 14500-14600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14550 yuan / ton; The price range of silicon metal in Tianjin port area is 14500-14600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14550 yuan / ton; The price range of ᦇ 441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 14200-14300 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14250 yuan / ton; The price range of silicon metal in Sichuan is 14100-14200 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14150 yuan / ton; Fujian ᦇ 441 metal trading range 13400-13600 yuan / ton, the average price of 13500 yuan / ton; The price range of silicon metal in Shanghai is 15000-15200 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15100 yuan / ton.

Market analysis of this week

In terms of inventory, large factories in northern China have temporarily stopped production. In addition, the power rationing period in Yunnan is nearly a month. Although some silicon factories have resumed work, the overall spot is still not much; In terms of cost, affected by the rise of electricity price in wet season in Yunnan, the electricity cost of silicon plant increased, and the coke cost increased by 22.57%, so the possibility of silicon price falling in Yunnan is small in the short term; In terms of output, the operating rate of Xinjiang silicon plant is not high, and the output supply of large plants is reduced. The recent high silicon price is caused by many factors, such as the shutdown of large factories, the cost of power in Yunnan, and the current situation in Xinjiang.

Future forecast

At present, the resumption of production of Yunnan silicon plant is still short, still in the empty window period, and there are few in stock. It is expected that further resumption of production will take place next month. The shutdown time of large factories in the north is not expected to exceed 20 days. The output of metallic silicon will also increase significantly in July. Most of the organic silicon plants in Xinjiang started normal this week, and the market anxiety has eased. In addition, due to the promotion of photovoltaic industry, the demand for metallic silicon has increased, Business community analysis believes that the price of silicon metal in July will still be high.

1、 Price trend

Mixed xylene rose slightly this week, according to business news agency’s block list. On June 20, the price of mixed xylene was 5840 yuan / ton; On this Sunday (June 27), the price was 5880 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton or 0.68% from last week; It was 59.78% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Although crude oil and external market support is good, domestic mixed xylene demand support is insufficient and growth is limited. In terms of external market, as of June 25, the price of imported mixed xylene from South Korea was 792.5 US dollars / ton, up 34 US dollars / ton or 4.48% from June 18; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was $806 / T, up 29 / T or 3.73% from June 18.

In terms of crude oil, the market is optimistic about the recovery of crude oil demand, US crude oil inventories continue to decline, and international oil prices continue to rise. Compared with June 18, Brent rose $2.71/barrel, or 3.69%; WTI rose $2.41 per barrel, or 3.36%.

Downstream, PX market, domestic PX prices remained stable this week, at 6500 yuan / ton, up 58.54% year on year. As of June 25, the closing price of Asian region is 918-920 USD / T FOB Korea and 936-938 USD / T CFR China.

PTA Market in East China continued to rise this week, with the price of 4159.55 yuan / ton on Friday (June 25), up 8.46% from last week and 40.44% from the same period last year. International crude oil prices continue to rise, in this context, PTA Market obviously get cost support.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox this week was flat compared with last week. On Sunday, the price of ox in East China was 6200 yuan / ton, up 39.01% compared with the same period last year. The external quotation of o-benzene dropped, and the o-benzene in port went to the warehouse at a high level; The cost range is narrow; The downstream market fluctuated and fell, the demand was just needed, and the transaction enthusiasm was general.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The prospect of crude oil market is good, and the support of p-xylene is good; However, the general follow-up of the downstream market and weak demand limited its rise. On the whole, xylene mixture continued to be weak in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, xylene plant maintenance trends, port inventory and downstream demand (gasoline market).

According to the data monitored by the business society, the domestic first class industrial grade potassium nitrate quotation was 4870.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 5080.00 yuan / ton of domestic first class industrial grade potassium nitrate at the weekend, up 4.31%, and the current price rose 12.89% on a month-on-year basis, and the current price rose 21.31% year on year.

This week, the domestic market of potassium nitrate rose, the market supply is tight, most of which is concentrated in the hands of large traders, covering the market and sparing sales, the overall market transaction is slow. The overall supply is low, downstream market on demand procurement, potassium nitrate market continues to rise, prices continue to break through the highest point. According to statistics of business agency: the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate offer 4800-5200 yuan / ton this week (quotation is for reference only), and different prices are offered according to the purchase situation.

Recently, the quotation of the mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride was at the top: on June 24, the KCl equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. was in normal operation. The factory offer is about 2450 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable temporarily, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. On June 24, the KCl equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Co., Ltd. was in normal operation. The factory offer is about 2450 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable temporarily, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. Recently, after a round of increase, the KCl market temporarily consolidated at a high level, port stocks were tight, traders were slow to ship, and prices remained high.

In the near future, the domestic potassium chloride market has been in a short-term tight supply, and the supply of imported potassium is limited. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will be mainly rising in the short term, and the long-term market will still be waiting（ The above prices are provided by major manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of business society. For reference only, please contact relevant manufacturers for more details.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, this week’s soda ash market was stable and small. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average market price was about 1846 yuan / ton, up 45.74% over the same period last year. On June 24, the commodity index of light soda ash was 94.67, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 19.68% compared with 117.86 points (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 49.91% compared with 63.15 points, the lowest point on November 18, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price in East China is temporarily stable, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1700-1850 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1800-1900 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in Central China is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1700-1750 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the price of short-term soda ash is mainly high.

Upstream and demand: the turnover of upstream raw salt is good, the market atmosphere is relatively stable, and it is expected that the finishing market of raw salt will run mainly in the later stage. Glass inventory growth slowed down, and prices in some areas were adjusted sporadically. In North China Shahe, the shipment of enterprises is fair, the inventory of enterprises is low, and individual manufacturers have slightly increased. The overall trend of glass spot market in East China is general, and the inventory increases slightly. The production and marketing in Central China are fair, the export volume of enterprises is increased, and the spot price of glass is stable. South China’s glass shipment is better, downstream replenishment is more active, individual enterprise prices have increased. On the whole, there is no pressure on the manufacturers’ inventory for the time being, the price fixing operation is the main, the downstream is more wait-and-see, the procurement is more cautious, and the traders are more flexible.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 24 th week of 2021 (6.14-6.18), the price of chlor alkali industry increased by 1 commodity, decreased by 1 commodity, and decreased by 0 commodity. The main commodities that rose were calcium carbide (6.44%); The main commodities falling were PVC (- 0.68%). The average rise and fall this week was 1.15%.

Business analysts believe that: the domestic soda price is stable, the market trading atmosphere is relatively stable, and manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. At present, there is still a phenomenon of large inventory but uneven distribution of soda ash, and the manufacturers adjust the quotation according to themselves. The price of downstream glass is strong, but it is still wait-and-see for high price soda. The buyers and sellers still play a game on the price, and most of them purchase on demand. In general, soda late more narrow fluctuations in the operation of the market, specific to the downstream market demand.

After the Dragon Boat Festival, Shandong’s civil gas market was supported by favorable conditions, and the overall price rose, but the price rise did not last, and the upward route was blocked again within the month. According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market was 4140.00 yuan / ton on June 14 and 4183.33 yuan / ton on June 21, with an increase of 1.05% during the period and 48.87% compared with the same period last year.

After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, there was a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream. In addition, the international crude oil rose significantly, the enthusiasm for entering the market in the downstream was good, the manufacturers delivered smoothly, and the inventory decreased compared with the previous period. Under the guidance of favorable factors, the price of Shandong civil gas rose slightly. However, LPG is in the off-season, and the weak terminal demand has brought obvious restraint to the market, so the rising market has not been continued. The international crude oil dropped significantly on the 17th, and the LPG market was not strong enough, so the price stopped rising and stabilized. After entering this week (21st), as the early positive gradually consumed, prices fell again. At present, the supply of civil gas in Shandong is relatively sufficient, but the demand is general, and the market supply and demand are unbalanced. There is resistance to high prices in the lower reaches, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is obviously weaker than that in the earlier stage.

The recent rise of LPG futures market has brought some support to the spot market. On June 21, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2108 was 4486, the highest price was 4553, the lowest price was 4453, the closing price was 4519, the former settlement price was 4475, the settlement price was 4513, up 44, or 0.98%, the trading volume was 74433, the position was 48785, and the daily increase was 4107（ Quotation unit: yuan / ton)

On June 21, international oil prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market at US $73.12/barrel, up US $1.48 or 2.07%. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 74.90 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 1.39 U.S. dollars or 1.90%. People are full of confidence in the sustained economic recovery and strong demand growth. In addition, Iran’s presidential election is expected to continue to delay the resumption of us Iran nuclear talks.

At present, in the traditional off-season LPG market, the weak terminal demand is the main reason to restrain the market upward. Most of the lower reaches maintain replenishment on demand, and the overall enthusiasm for entering the market is relatively general. At present, the inventory of manufacturers in Shandong market is at a controllable level, and there is no obvious inventory pressure. In addition, the international crude oil rose sharply on the 21st, which brought some support to the market. It is expected that the price of Shandong civil gas market will be strong in the short term, and it is still likely to fall in the long term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of June 21, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 11033.33 yuan / ton. The market trend of DMF was rising, the price fluctuation was small, the negotiation center was high, the downstream negotiation was active, and the inventory supply was tight.

DMF prices continue to rise, high price operation, downstream active procurement, strong willingness to stock, the current low inventory operation, maintain the upward trend in the short term, DMF prices increased by 5.41% compared with the same period last week, compared with the same period last month, the price increased by 3.12%, significant increase, upstream methanol stable operation, just need replenishment, limited volatility, maintain the early trend in the short term.

On June 21, the chemical industry index was 1041 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 3.97% from 1084 points (2021-05-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 74.08% from 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now

Business agency DMF analysts believe: DMF in the short term to maintain the upward trend（ For more information on the latest industry chain, welcome to pay attention to official account of business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp commodity price.