According to the commodity index system of business society, the natural rubber commodity index on November 14 was 39.87, the same as yesterday, down 60.13% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 46.15% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the natural rubber market in China continued to fluctuate in the week (August 14), and the increase range was expanded near the weekend. The price of China’s domestic standard 1 spot rubber was reported as 13080 yuan / ton in the East China market on the 8th (Monday), and 13444 yuan / ton on the 14th (Sunday), with a weekly increase of 2.78%; The highest price point of this week is 13444 yuan / ton on Friday, the lowest point is 13080 yuan / ton on Monday, and the maximum amplitude is the increase of 2.78% in that week.

The factors affecting the market this week are more prominent: 1. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on November 7, China imported 512000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in October 2021, down 23.7% from 671000 tons in the same period in 2020. From January to October 2021, China imported 5.475 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 9.4% from 6.044 million tons in the same period in 2020. 2. According to the latest data of the Federation of passenger cars, the retail sales of the broad passenger car market reached 1.738 million in October 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%, but a month on month increase of 8.3%; In October 2021, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 321000, a year-on-year increase of 141%, but a month on month decrease of 3.9%. In the first 10 months, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 2139000, an increase of 73.3% over the same period last year. 3. According to the data released by China Automobile Association on November 10, China’s macroeconomic operation was generally stable in October 2021, but the domestic and international environment was still complex and severe. The automobile industry has made efforts to overcome the impact of many adverse factors such as tight power supply and high raw material prices, and the supply situation of vehicle specification chip is slightly better than that in the third quarter. Automobile production and sales continue to show a recovery trend, and the overall situation shows signs of improvement. 4. It was reported on November 11 that Thailand is experiencing the most serious labor shortage after reopening the country. According to the preliminary statistics of industries requiring a large number of labor, such as agriculture, manufacturing, service and construction, at least 800000 foreign workers need to be introduced. The analysis shows that Thailand’s rubber industry is also suffering from a serious labor shortage. 5. Recently, the demand for No. 20 mixed rubber has increased, the arrival volume is limited, and the inventory remains low, which plays an obvious role in supporting the domestic rubber price.

Future forecast: the cutting of domestic rubber will be stopped one after another, and the superposition of No. 20 mixed rubber has obvious supporting effect in the near future. The production and sales of automobile enterprises have improved to a certain extent, and the operating rate of tire factories has rebounded slightly in the near future. It is expected that the recent trend of rubber is more likely to fluctuate in the near future.

DOTP prices stabilized after falling this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the DOTP price stabilized after falling this week, and the overall DOTP market fell. As of November 12, the price of DOTP was 12212.50 yuan / ton, down 1.91% from 12450 yuan / ton last weekend (November 5); This week, the price of DOTP continued its decline last week. DOTP fell slightly and the DOTP market fell.

Isooctanol prices fell this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of isooctanol fell slightly this week. Under the national macro-control, coal related products are easy to fall but difficult to rise. This week, affected by the decline in the price of raw material coal to syngas, the cost of isooctanol decreased, the price of isooctanol decreased, the cost of plasticizer DOTP decreased, and the downward pressure of DOTP increased.

PTA prices rose first and then fell this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, PTA prices rose briefly due to the favorable cost side, the maintenance expectation of PTA device and the impact of weather on northern port logistics. The sharp decline in international crude oil prices weakens PTA cost support. At present, the wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream factories is increasing, the procurement enthusiasm is not high, the demand follow-up is insufficient, and PTA price shocks are weak. The raw material market weakened and the cost of DOTP decreased, which was bad for the DOTP market.

PVC market stopped falling and rebounded this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PVC market stopped falling and rebounded this week, and the bank’s desire rose. The PVC disk was strong, the futures PVC price fluctuated and rose, which boosted the rising atmosphere of the spot market, the enterprise quotation was tentatively increased, the market trading atmosphere gradually improved, and the focus began to move upward. PVC market rose, which was good for DOTP market.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOTP data analyst of business agency, believes that due to the two-way impact of cost and demand, the DOTP market stabilized after falling this week. On the cost side, the prices of isooctanol and PTA fluctuated slightly, and there is a great possibility of future decline. The cost support of DOTP is weakened, and the downward pressure of DOTP is large; On the demand side, PVC prices stopped falling and rebounded, the PVC market warmed up, the demand for plasticizers was expected to rise, and the upward momentum of DOTP increased. Overall, the plasticizer DOTP has increased the momentum of future rise, and the downward pressure still exists. It is expected that the price shock of DOTP will stabilize.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of November 11, the average price of domestic rubber grade excellent white carbon black was 6875.00 yuan / ton. The white carbon black market mainly operated stably, the upstream raw material price increased slightly, and the white carbon black price was stable, medium and strong. At present, the market supply is normal, the downstream just needs to be purchased, and the transaction atmosphere is general.

The mainstream price of white carbon black is about 6870 yuan / ton. The price is mainly stable, the overall market supply and demand is balanced, the just needed procurement is mainly for contract customers, the negotiation atmosphere is flat, and the price has no obvious change compared with the beginning of this week. Compared with the same period last month, the price rose by 20.61%, and the silica market was stable and strong.

The maintenance of upstream hydrochloric acid enterprises has increased. At present, the supply side is tight and the cost side support is weak. Recently, the market price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong may fluctuate slightly, and the average quotation price is about 310 yuan / ton. The overall market is stable.

On November 10, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 83.68, up 2.63 points from yesterday, down 39.31% from the highest point 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 365.41% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Business agency white carbon black analysts believe that: in the short term, white carbon black will mainly run smoothly with limited fluctuation range. (to know more about the industry chain market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the commodity price).

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of November 10, the average price of organosilicon DMC market quotation in mainstream areas was 31500 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on November 7, 2021 (the reference price was 40000 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 8500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 21.25%; Compared with the price on November 1, 2021 (the reference price is 46666 yuan / ton), the average price is reduced by 15166 yuan / ton, a decrease of 32.5%.

Last week, the domestic silicone DMC market fell sharply, and the industry was deeply worried. This week, most large factories did not offer on Monday (8th) to digest the impact of the market trend of the previous week. Individual cargo holders actively sold their goods, and the low-end quotation of silicone DMC was as low as 32000-33000 yuan / ton. On September 9, Shandong chemical plant significantly reduced the ex factory price of silicone DMC to 31000 yuan / ton, which was 9000 yuan / ton lower than the previous trading day. The quotations of other monomer plants were mostly referred to around 33000-34000 yuan / ton. The transaction was loose and negotiable. The cost support given by the continuous decline of raw metal silicon was gradually weakened. There was strong bearish sentiment in the market, mainly waiting in the downstream, and the trading atmosphere was cold, We are cautious in purchasing and fear that the market will continue to decline. Under the condition of weak supply and demand, silicone enterprises have a strong willingness to ship, and the inventory pressure is also increasing. On the 10th, Shandong big factory once again lowered the ex factory price of silicone DMC to 30000 yuan / ton, and other monomer factories have also offered profits to ship. The quotation reference is around 32000-33000 yuan / ton, and the average price is around 31500 yuan / ton, There is still room for profit from many transactions. So far, the silicone DMC market has returned to the 30000 era.

According to the business agency, the following is the current price of silicone DMC in some parts of China (for reference only, unit: yuan / ton)

region November 9th November 10th Rise and fall

Shandong region thirty-one thousand thirty thousand – one thousand

East China thirty-four thousand thirty-two thousand – two thousand

Northwest China thirty-three thousand thirty-two thousand – one thousand

In terms of upstream metal silicon, this week, the domestic 441# metal silicon price continued to weaken, with an average price of 30250 yuan / ton in the domestic market. The dry season in Sichuan, the main production area, is approaching, and Xinjiang is subject to power restriction and production reduction. Superimposed on the weak metal silicon market, the silicon price continued to weaken. The weakening demand is due to the strong bearish sentiment of downstream aluminum alloy enterprises, mainly on the sidelines, the limited power of polysilicon and other factors, and the output only remains weak and stable. According to the monitoring data of business society, the reference price of metal silicon was 30250 yuan / ton on November 9, a decrease of 24.3% compared with November 1 (39958 yuan / ton).

Future trend forecast of silicone DMC Market

At present, in the face of the sharp decline of raw materials in the downstream, orders have increased in the past two days. In addition, after the decline of metal silicon in the upstream has gradually stopped and stabilized, the cost support will also increase. At present, silicone DMC has fallen to a low level. Therefore, silicone DMC datagraphers believe that the silicone DMC market will be able to consolidate and operate stably in the short term, Manufacturers mainly offer multidimensional and stable prices, and there is little chance of another sharp decline in the market. Specifically, we need to pay more attention to the trend changes of supply and demand.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (November 9): 18400 yuan / ton

On November 9, the melamine market was weak, down 3.50% compared with the previous trading day, down 8.15% compared with the price on November 1, and up 37.66% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, the upstream urea price is temporarily stable, the cost support is limited, the market operating rate is high, the demand side support is insufficient, the export demand is general, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the domestic trade demand is flat, and the market maintains a weak pattern.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be dominated by weak operation.

Trade name: ammonium chloride

Latest price (November 8): 1220 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the market of ammonium chloride is stable. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of domestic ammonium chloride and dry ammonium chloride was 1220 yuan / ton on the 8th, which was stable compared with the previous day. In late October, the price of the original raw material liquid ammonia fell to some extent, and the cost side was weaker than that in the early stage. In addition, the price of urea also fell to some extent, which had a slightly empty impact on ammonium chloride. However, the start-up of the unit of the combined alkali plant is around 60 ~ 70%, the overall supply pressure of ammonium chloride is small, and the supply surface is relatively supported; The start-up of downstream compound fertilizer is low, coupled with the slow start-up of winter storage, and the demand is light. According to the business agency, the ex factory price of Jinshan Chemical dry ammonium was reported to be around 1250 yuan / ton on November 8, 2021.

In the future, it is predicted that the demand side is weak, the cost side falls, and the supply side is slightly supported. It is expected that the ammonium chloride market will remain high in the short term, but there is room for prices to fall in the later period.

Recently, the trading atmosphere of viscose staple fiber was calm, the price was loose and fell, and the manufacturers had a strong willingness to support the price. According to the price monitoring of business society, as of November 4, 2021, the domestic ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 14420 yuan / ton, down 280 yuan / ton from last week.

The trading atmosphere of viscose staple fiber is calm, some traders’ bids are loose, some manufacturers’ new quotations are currently maintained, and there is no market for high-priced goods. Recently, the operating rate of the industry has increased, and the supply is expected to increase. With the increase of supply and decrease of demand, the bargaining power of viscose staple fiber may be difficult to maintain a strong position.

Upstream staple fiber and pulp Market: the load of viscose staple fiber industry continues to operate at a low level, superimposing factors such as pulp capacity expansion, and some dissolved pulp is in a wait-and-see state. The quotation of coniferous pulp is loose again. Affected by low load and shortage of auxiliary materials, viscose staple fiber manufacturers may have limited willingness to purchase pulp, and the trading atmosphere is light. There are few enquiries for domestic dissolved pulp, the trading volume is under pressure, and the price is loose with the imported pulp.

The price of downstream cotton yarn is basically stable and the trading is stable. According to the price monitoring of the business society, as of November 4, 2021, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30s, ring spinning, first-class products) is 19233 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as that of last week. The operating rate of downstream textile mills has increased slowly, the supply is expected to increase, the downstream demand of the terminal is slightly insufficient, and the price support is difficult.

Viscose supply is expected to increase, superimposed on the sluggish downstream demand, the export prices of some viscose staple fiber dealers are low, and the actual transaction price is loose and declining. Business analysts expect that the downward pressure on short-term viscose staple fiber is large, and the price will go down slightly.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (November 3): 2772.00 yuan / ton

On November 3, the ex factory quotation of domestic urea fell, which was 20 yuan / ton lower than that on November 1, a decrease of 0.72%, and a year-on-year increase of 54.86%. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas have fallen sharply recently, and the cost support has weakened. From the perspective of demand: the demand increases, the agricultural demand ends, the industrial demand rises, the winter storage of chemical fertilizer is coming, the demand for low-cost urea by the downstream compound fertilizer plant increases, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level. Most of them follow up with the acquisition and use of an appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea enters the centralized maintenance period, the supply decreases, and the daily output of urea is less than 130000 tons. On the whole, urea cost support weakened, downstream demand increased and urea supply decreased.

In the future, the ex factory price of domestic urea is expected to decline slightly: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2700 yuan / ton.

In October, dichloromethane rose first and then fell. In the first half of the month, on the one hand, the market bullish atmosphere was driven by the rise of the international energy market. In the first half of the month, the prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine rose sharply, supported by the cost and bullish atmosphere; On the other hand, the impact of domestic dual control policy on the commencement of methane chloride has not ended. The unexpected shutdown of No. 1 plant in Jiangsu has pushed the price of dichloromethane all the way up. In the middle and late October, with the rise and fall of domestic raw material prices and the downstream resistance to the high price of dichloromethane, the price of dichloromethane gradually returned, but there was still a significant increase at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong was 5177 yuan / ton at the beginning of October and 6025 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 16.23% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month; The price peak in the month was 8587 yuan / ton on the 18th, up 65.86% from the beginning of the month.

List of commencement of domestic methane chloride plant in October

In October, the prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine rose first and then fell, and the cost support in the early stage was weak in the later stage. According to the business agency, as of October 31, the price of methanol was 3350 yuan / ton, down 7.27% from 3612 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; The mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine in tank cars in Shandong is about 2000 yuan / ton, up 17.65% from 1700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and down 51.22% from the highest point of 4100 yuan / ton in the month.

Future forecast: according to the dichloromethane analysts of business society, although the start-up of methane chloride unit has rebounded slightly, it remains low. There is no pressure on the supply side of dichloromethane, but the demand is weak at high prices, coupled with the current decline in cost; On the whole, the price rise of dichloromethane is weak in the short term.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (November 1): 20033.33 yuan / ton

On November 1, the melamine market fell, down 1.48% compared with last Friday, up 15.80% compared with October 1, and up 50.63% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, the upstream urea price has fallen sharply, the cost support is loose, and the export demand is still supported to some extent, but the domestic trade demand is poor, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market is weak.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be dominated by weak operation.