Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on December 20, the average early price of silver market was 4706 yuan / kg, a decrease of 0.68% compared with the average early price of 4738 yuan / kg in the spot market last Friday (December 17); compared with the spot price of 5550 yuan / kg at the beginning of the year (01.01), a decrease of 15.21%.

On December 20, the spot market price of gold was 371.25 yuan / g, an increase of 0.44% compared with the spot market price of 369.63 yuan / g last Friday (December 17), an increase of 1.32% compared with the early average price of 366.42 yuan / g in the spot market price at the beginning of December (December 1); compared with the spot market price of 392.70 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (January 1), a decrease of 5.46%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

The convergence of precious metal gold and silver is relatively good, the price amplitude of silver is large, and the direction is basically the same. After the recent silver price reduction, it was adjusted at a low level.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Today’s macro policy factors

The central bank will conduct a 7-day reverse repo of RMB 10 billion and a 14 day reverse repo of RMB 10 billion in the open market today. Another 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, and a net investment of 10 billion yuan was realized on the same day. The bid winning interest rate of 7-day reverse repurchase operation is 2.2% and that of 14 day reverse repurchase operation is 2.35%.

The people’s Bank of China announced the quoted interest rate (LPR) of the loan market in December. Among them, the one-year LPR interest rate was reduced to 3.80%, 0.05% lower than the previous value of 3.85%, and the five-year LPR interest rate was maintained at 4.65%.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from December 10 to December 17, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China rose from 10166 yuan / ton to 10500 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.28% during the week, the price fell by 4.65% month on month and 54.79% year-on-year.

The domestic cyclohexanone market continued to rise this week. At the beginning of the week, there were few export devices of cyclohexanone, and the market competition was relatively small. In addition, some downstream enterprises just needed to export cyclohexanone, cyclohexanone was reluctant to sell at a low price, and the transaction focus increased.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of December 17:

region ., Price

East China 10700-10800 yuan / ton cash vehicle delivery

South China 11000-11100 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong region 10500-10600 yuan / ton cash delivery

Raw material pure benzene: the price of East pure benzene rises, and this round of rise is mainly driven by the price of Shandong. Shandong market immediately began to hype the news that new downstream devices were about to enter the procurement market. Traders bought goods actively and prices rose. Driven by the atmosphere of Shandong, the East China market has a large volume of paper goods, and the price has also risen rapidly.

Comparison chart of price trend of pure benzene (upstream raw material) and cyclohexanone in business society:

Downstream caprolactam: Recently, the caprolactam unit still has some load reduction and short shutdown, and the supply of caprolactam continues to decrease this week. However, over the weekend, Hualu Hengsheng and Baling Petrochemical will gradually recover. In addition, sanning and baling Hengyi will recover in the later stage, and the supply of caprolactam will increase again. With the high price of cyclohexanone, downstream procurement is cautious.

Comparison chart of price trend of cyclohexanone and caprolactam (downstream products) in business community:

The cost side is temporarily stable, the cyclohexanone spot supply is expected to increase, and the downstream outsourcing demand is cautious. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business society expect that the short-term cyclohexanone market will fluctuate.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 7133 yuan / ton on December 10 and 6425 yuan / ton on December 16. The price of chlorinated paraffin fell by 9.93% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The raw material support of chlorinated paraffin this week is acceptable, and the downstream is purchased on demand. As of December 16, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui was about 6100 yuan / ton, that in Northeast China was about 5600 yuan / ton, that in South China was 5600-6500 yuan / ton, that in Shandong was 5300-6000 yuan / ton, and that in East China was about 6100 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax mainly operated smoothly this week, and increased sporadically in some areas. Liquid wax will maintain stable operation in a short time. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine fell at the beginning of the week and began to rise in the middle of the week.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin in business society believe that the price of raw materials rose steadily this week, and the cost support is acceptable. However, the downstream demand is general and the transaction atmosphere is poor. Raw liquid chlorine rose and fell first this week, and the price fluctuated frequently. It is expected that the market of chlorinated paraffin will be in shock in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the changes of demand side and raw materials.

According to the monitoring sample data of business society, as of December 15, the average price of melamine enterprises was 12400.00 yuan / ton, down 7.46% compared with last Wednesday (December 8), 23.14% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, and 27.06% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, the quotation of melamine enterprises is 9500 yuan / ton ~ 14000 yuan / ton.

Recently, the market price of melamine has fallen. Recently, the price of raw material urea has risen slightly, and the cost support is limited. At present, the operating rate of melamine market is more than 80%, but the demand side is still weak, there is no obvious improvement, the market is lack of good, many manufacturers do not offer, the trading atmosphere is light, and the focus of melamine negotiation is weak.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market rose on December 14, up 0.33% from December 8. From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand is advancing slowly, while industrial demand is mainly on the sidelines. The future market of urea price is uncertain, the promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer is slow, and the production plan is postponed. The market price of melamine fell sharply, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation weakened. From the perspective of supply: the shutdown and maintenance time of gas head enterprises is delayed, and it is expected to stop one after another in mid December. At present, the daily output of urea is about 140000 tons. On the whole, urea cost support weakened, downstream demand improved, urea supply was insufficient, and urea increased slightly in the future.

Melamine analysts of business society believe that the recent slight rise in urea price, general cost support, high start-up on the supply side, weak support on the demand side and lack of market confidence. It is expected that the melamine market may be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of December 14, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 687 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on December 8; Compared with the price on December 1 (the reference average price of phosphate rock is 680 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 7 yuan / ton, or 0.98%. Compared with the price on November 1 (the reference average price of phosphate rock is 663 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 24 yuan / ton, or 3.52%.

In December, the domestic phosphorus ore market remained stable as a whole, the supply side was still relatively tight, the on-site inventory pressure was small, mining enterprises mostly executed contract user orders, and the downstream yellow phosphorus was prepared at the end of the year. The market gradually warmed up, providing effective support for phosphorus ore, and the transaction focus in the phosphorus ore field was strong. On the 8th, Some domestic mining enterprises in Guangxi have raised the market price of medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore. after adjustment, the freight yard price of 28% grade phosphorus ore in Guangxi is around 560-620 yuan / ton, and the freight yard price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is around 630-680 yuan / ton. Then, with the effective support of both supply and demand, until December 14, the domestic phosphate ore market continued to operate at a high level, and the overall supply tension in the field will be maintained in the short term. The quotation of 30% phosphate ammonium Ore Truck board in Hubei is about 660-680 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 30% phosphate ore in Hebei is about 700-750 yuan / ton, The freight yard price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou is around 630-670 yuan / ton.

According to the business agency, the following is the current price of phosphate rock in some parts of China (for reference only)

product region grade Price remarks

Phosphate rock Guizhou 30% 630-670 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guizhou 28% 560-620 yuan / ton Factory price

Ammonium phosphate ore Hubei 28% 660-680 yuan / ton Plate price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 30% 630-680 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 28% 560-620 yuan / ton Factory price

In terms of index, the phosphorus ore commodity index on December 13 was 125.99, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 145.21% from the lowest point of 51.38 on December 24, 2018. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

After years of development, China’s phosphorus ore industry has formed a mature industrial chain, which is mainly divided into three links. Among them, the upstream participants are phosphorus ore mining equipment suppliers, including civil blasting equipment suppliers and mining machinery equipment suppliers; The main participants in the middle reaches are phosphorus ore mining enterprises, which are the owners of phosphorus ore resources and mining technology; The downstream participants are phosphorus chemical enterprises, and the main products are yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, the domestic yellow phosphorus price has increased significantly recently. The number of enquiries in the yellow phosphorus field increased, and the downstream enterprises started preparing goods years ago. The yellow phosphorus inquiry increased significantly, the market procurement enthusiasm was high, the supply was tight, the manufacturers were reluctant to sell, and the yellow phosphorus price increased. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 45000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 42000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 42000 yuan / ton. It is reported that Yunnan began to implement the new electricity price in 2022 in January. The electricity price in Yunnan will rise, and the cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises will increase. According to the data of business agency, as of December 14, the reference average price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan Guizhou was 43250 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.32% compared with the beginning of the month.

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, towards the end of the year, the downstream has started to prepare goods one after another, and there is little change in supply and demand support in the short term. Therefore, phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that in the short term, most of China’s domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to operate at a high level and stably, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (December 13): 12400 yuan / ton

On December 13, the market price of melamine fell, 2.57% lower than that on Friday, 23.14% lower than that at the beginning of the month and 32.61% lower than that on November 13. At present, the upstream urea price is temporarily stable, the cost support is limited, the downstream commencement is limited, the just need to follow up is weak, the enterprise shipment is general, the contradiction between market supply and demand is prominent, and the trading atmosphere is light.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be dominated by weak operation.

Domestic p-xylene price trend:

It can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart that the market price trend of p-xylene this week is temporarily stable. By the end of the week, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 55.81%.

Recently, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical operates stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong operates at full load, and the unit of Qilu Petrochemical operates stably, About 50% of Urumqi petrochemical units have been started, and the domestic p-xylene supply is relatively normal, but some overseas units are still under maintenance. Due to the general downstream demand, the domestic p-xylene price trend is temporarily stable. The closing price of international crude oil rose, while the external price of PX rose slightly. As of the 9th, the closing prices were US $824-826 / T FOB Korea and US $842-844 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia has been relatively stable. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene unit in Asia is more than 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal, and the closing price of PX has little change, The domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Crude oil prices rose this week. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $70.94/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $74.42/barrel. Early this week, South Africa reported that the symptoms of local Omicron infection cases were mild. After that, the market was worried about undermining oil demand and oil prices ushered in a retaliatory rebound. In addition, the Iranian nuclear negotiations are at an impasse, the possibility of Iranian oil returning to the market is reduced, and crude oil is also supported to a certain extent. Second, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that US crude oil inventories fell slightly last week, which benefited the oil market. OPEC +, an oil producing country, also acts as a ballast. OPEC + decided to continue to release 400000 barrels / day of production capacity as planned at the ministerial meeting on December 2, reflecting the confidence of the alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia in the future demand prospects. The rising trend of oil price has a certain positive impact on the domestic petrochemical market, and the price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

The downstream PTA market price trend rose this week. As of the 10th, the average PTA market price was 4600-4700 yuan / ton, and the PTA price rose by 4.37% this week. At present, the improvement of PTA market is mainly due to the recovery of crude oil market and the good supply side brought by centralized maintenance of units. However, the current terminal orders are still relatively light, the downstream polyester inventory is accumulated, and the raw material procurement is mainly to meet the rigid demand. At present, the operating rate of the industry is maintained at close to 73%. The terminal orders in the terminal market are still relatively light. At present, the comprehensive startup rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 65.31%, and the raw material preparation of weaving factories continues to decline. At present, the normal production volume is maintained, and the preparation volume is in 2-3 weeks. On the demand side, due to the continuous decline of domestic and foreign trade orders on a month on month basis, considering that it is difficult for orders to improve before the Spring Festival, it is expected that factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang will stop for vacation one after another from mid December, and the startup load will continue to decline. PTA plant in the raw material market is still planned to be overhauled, the positive support on the cost side remains, and the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that the current crude oil price is supported to a certain extent, and the cost side is still supporting. In addition, some downstream PTA devices may be overhauled, resulting in poor demand in the terminal textile industry. It is expected that the market price of p-xylene may remain low and stabilize temporarily in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the mainstream price of styrene in China has been slightly explored this week. On Monday (December 6), the price of sample enterprises of business society was 8200.00 yuan / ton, and on Friday (December 10), the price of sample enterprises was 8262.50 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.76%. The price increased by 7.54% over the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Styrene market price rose slightly this week. On December 6, East China styrene closed near 8100-8200 yuan / ton. On December 10, it was 8250-8300 yuan / ton, with an increase of 100-150 yuan / ton. The above is the tank export price of Zhangjiagang. On December 6, South China styrene offered 8200-8250 yuan / ton, and on December 10, 8250-8300 yuan / ton, an increase of 50 yuan / ton, and the delivery price of the above factories.

In terms of raw materials, after the rise of crude oil this week, the chemical industry was consolidated as a whole. This week, pure benzene in the upstream of styrene followed the trend of crude oil and styrene. After rising, it remained stable. The mainstream quotation of pure benzene on Friday (December 10) was 6420.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 80 yuan / ton, or 1.26%, compared with 6340.00 yuan / ton on Monday (December 6).

In terms of operating rate, the average operating rate of domestic styrene plants this week was 75.93%, down 0.39% from last week, and the overall supply was slightly surplus. During the week, phase I of South China Q enterprise was restarted, Keyuan, Yuhuang and Shengyuan had no restart plan, and SINOCHEM Quanzhou stopped for maintenance. It is expected that CNOOC shell phase 2 will be overhauled in December. In terms of new devices, Wanhua may discharge materials in mid December; Lihuayi may postpone to January; Zhenhai Liande plans to ignite at the end of the month, and the product is expected to be delivered in January; Tianjin Bohua is expected to be postponed to the first quarter of next year. It can not be ruled out that the overall long-term bad is too much due to the postponement of the Winter Olympic Games again.

Downstream, the overall operating rate of styrene downstream rose this week. The PS market price remained stable this week. As of Friday (December 10), the mainstream ex factory quotation of PS in East China was 10166.67 yuan / ton. The output and commencement increased this week, but there was no accumulation of inventory, and the production and sales were balanced as a whole. The operating rate of PS industry was 84.49%, with a month on month increase of 2.41% and a year-on-year increase of 18.64%. CITIC Guoan increased to 6 through 2, Huizhou Renxin phase 2 raised the negative, and Ningbo Ineos Benz stopped on December 9.

In the EPS market, as of Friday (December 10), the mainstream ex factory quotation of EPS in East China was 9950.00 yuan / ton, up 25 yuan / ton or 0.25% from 9925.00 yuan / ton on Monday (December 6). EPS weekly industry started about 54.19%, with a month on month increase of 10.93%. Jiangyin plant returned to normal, Zhuhai rengeng and Tianjin Jiatai stopped, and the overall load increased significantly. The negative atmosphere in the periphery was slightly relieved this week, with high opening support of styrene monomer and tentative small rise of merchants. It was heard that local transactions were good and the overall situation was general.

In the ABS market, as of Friday (December 10), the mainstream ex factory quotation of ABS Zhejiang was 15800.00 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan / ton or 1.56% from 16050.00 yuan / ton on Monday. The ABS industry started 96.82%, up 3.42% from last week. This week, there is no maintenance manufacturer in China except Haijiang, and the overall starting load is high. In the first half of the week, PetroChina’s shipment was average, the listing price was reduced, and the market fell. In the second half of the week, Ningbo Zhenhai was affected by public health events, some supply sources were affected, and the market price stopped falling and stabilized.

3、 Later outlook

Crude oil consolidation, pure benzene temporary stable consolidation, the cost side gives styrene bottom support, which can not provide rising power. With the impact of the epidemic, the overall impact of policy requirements in Zhenhai area on the upstream and downstream industrial chain is empty. In addition, there is an expectation that new units will be put into operation. On the whole, the styrene market is expected to be in a weak consolidation state next week, and the price is expected to be around 7900-8200 yuan / ton

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 9, the average price of organosilicon DMC market quotation in mainstream areas was 26480 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on December 5 (reference price 30600 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 4120 yuan / ton, a decrease of 13.46%.

Entering this week, the overall trend of silicone DMC market continued to run downward under the condition of insufficient support from both supply and demand. Affected by the weak downward trend in the price of raw metal silicon, the support given to silicone DMC in terms of cost is weakened, and the demand performance is still insufficient. Under the dual pressure of cost and demand, at the beginning of this week (December 7), the factory price of silicone DMC in Shandong Province was significantly reduced by 2500 yuan / ton, and the factory price of silicone DMC fell to 27400 yuan / ton, The sharp price adjustment of large manufacturers added a dark cloud to the already gloomy market. Then, in the middle of the week, other large manufacturers also began to reduce the ex factory price of silicone DMC by about 1000-1500 yuan / ton. The confidence of field operators was hit, the bearish mood increased, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream was stronger, the pace of goods preparation was still slow, and the overall demand was still weak. On Thursday (December 9), Shandong large factory once again significantly reduced the ex factory price of silicone DMC to 26000 yuan / ton, with a reduction of 1300 yuan / ton. The raw metal silicon also continued to decline weakly. With the increase of air atmosphere in the field and the pressure of bad factors, other factories and suppliers also began to make large profits and ship goods. The low-end quotation of silicone DMC in the field fell to 25200 yuan / ton, with a maximum drop of nearly 5000 yuan / ton. As of December 9, the quotation of domestic silicone DMC was around 25200-27000 yuan / ton, and the average price was 26480 yuan / ton, with a decrease of more than 13% during the week.

In terms of index, the silicone DMC commodity index on December 8 was 151.86, down 1.03 points from yesterday, down 53.87% from the highest point of 329.21 in the cycle (2021-10-10), and up 115.71% from the lowest point of 70.40 on July 27, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

In terms of upstream metal silicon, this week, the domestic metal silicon 441# market as a whole fell. From the perspective of supply-demand relationship, there is a backlog in the inventory of silicon plants, but the transaction at the demand side is cautious and the price is pressed more, resulting in poor shipment of silicon plants and a stalemate in the metal silicon market as a whole. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, on December 9, the metal silicon 441# average price was 23510 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.62% during the week compared with the beginning of the week.

Future trend forecast of silicone DMC Market

At present, after the organosilicon DMC price has fallen sharply, the downstream operators are still cautious, the overall performance of downstream demand is general, there is no large-scale replenishment, and the organosilicon DMC data division of business society believes that although the strong support of the demand side has not yet appeared, the current organosilicon DMC market price has fallen to a low point, and there is limited room for significant decline in the future, Therefore, it is expected that the silicone DMC market is dominated by weak consolidation operation, and more attention should be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price fell steadily this week. At the beginning of the week, the market price was 7617 yuan / ton, and the weekend average price was 7467 yuan / ton, down 1.97%.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the price chart of the business agency, the price of propylene (Shandong) continued to decline this week. As of Friday, the price of propylene in Shandong market was 7450-7500 yuan / ton, about 70-80% of the overall market started, the supply was sufficient, the demand side was weak, the focus of negotiation shifted downward, the cost side support weakened, the delivery of goods by enterprises was not smooth, and the price was under pressure.

Upstream: propylene upstream fell more or rose less this week. Crude oil was shrouded in bad news and the price fluctuated lower under the influence of the new crown variant virus aggravating the U.S. economic risk and inflation uncertainty. Propane market has sufficient supply, insufficient demand support and falling price trend. Supported by the cost of methanol, the price has increased. The price of liquefied gas is stable and small, and the price changes little. On the whole, it mainly affects the decline in the price of raw crude oil and the loosening of propylene cost.

Downstream: isopropanol, a downstream product, rose slightly, while other products stabilized temporarily or fell further. The demand side is weak, and it is difficult to boost the propylene market demand.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts of the chemical branch of business agency believe that the overall market of propylene market is dominated by bad conditions. In the future, with the impact of enterprises eager to buy goods and low-cost sources, propylene prices are expected to continue to fluctuate and fall.