1.Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market as a whole fell sharply this week, with the average price of acetic acid in eastern China dropping to about 3,283 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 3,100 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 5.58%. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2800-2850/ton; in Shandong is about 2950-3150 yuan/ton; in Hebei is about 3150-3200 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi is about 2700 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is about 2950-3050 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang is about 3100-3250 yuan/ton; in South China, the quotation is about 3200-3300 yuan/ton, which is 32.12% lower than that in the same period last year.

2. Cause Analysis

Products: Affected by the downstream market demand of acetate and vinyl acetate, the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline, and enterprises delivered more profits. Due to the strong performance of the upstream methanol market and other factors such as pre-stocking, the acetic acid market gradually stabilized over the weekend; the 1.2 million tons/year plant of Nanjing Celanese has not been fully restored, and the 500,000 tons/year plant of Nanjing Yangtze is still under repair. The internal start-up rate fell last week, with the overall stock of about 80%.

Industry chain: In the upstream, methanol market is tidying up at a high level, with good turnover in Northwest China and strong market; goods in Bohai Rim and Central China are still moving well and rising steadily; trade in Huaihai is turning better and rising slightly; futures are tidying up, and the port market is going up accordingly, with methanol prices rising by 3.97% in a week, and the current price of methanol is about 2306 yuan/ton, down by 33.7% compared with the same period last year; vinegar this week. The overall performance of the acid downstream industry is sluggish, and the demand for acetic acid is not good. Traders are cautious in purchasing and take a wait-and-see attitude.

International: This week, the North American acetic acid market quoted a steady price of 640 US dollars per ton; Asian acetic acid market affected by the downturn in demand, continued to fall within a week, the current quotation is 380-445 US dollars per ton; European acetic acid market prices stabilized in the week around 780 Euro/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, as the 1.2 million ton/year Celanese plant is about to restart, the supply of the industry will gradually increase, but the downstream market performance continues to be weak, and near the end of recent years, the intention of enterprises to drain warehouses is high, and there is no good support at the export side.

One: price trend

According to the price monitoring business community, as of January 9th, the domestic polymerization MDI market price at 11700 yuan / ton, the overall market prices continue upward, prices fell 58.19% over the same period last year.

Two, market analysis

Products: domestic polymerization MDI market continued upward. North China, East China Wanhua goods negotiations 12000-12200 yuan / ton, Shanghai goods about 11800 yuan / ton; Southern China Wanhua goods about 12200 yuan / ton, about 12000 yuan / ton goods in Shanghai. The spot market very tight, middlemen so cheap sellers, prices, market inquiry atmosphere is slightly weakened yesterday.

The North China market, MDI market offer a small amount of polymerization continues to shift. Most of the factory goods volume, the spot market tensions, downstream and middlemen enthusiasm stockpile is strong, the northern market trading atmosphere is. Because the stock is scarce, individual brokers sell wait-and-see, sporadic offer continue to narrow up. East China MDI market narrow shift polymerization. The factory goods volume, middleman delivery of pre sale orders, hands spot limited, cheap sellers, sporadic offer narrow upward. Southern China MDI polymerization spot market shortage, the middle daily dish is scarce, at present middleman positions, sporadic offer higher prices.

Industrial chain: raw materials, domestic aniline to discuss the market stability. Raw material benzene prices, the aniline profit fell to the cost line, factory shipments smoothly, improve the outlook or offer price. Shandong is expected to increase 100 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton in East china. The main reference price in Shandong and North China to 5140 yuan / ton acceptance; East China mainstream market reference price 5200-5400 yuan / ton acceptance factory.

Three, market forecast

Good, the plant is still in repair; individual enterprises control the amount of supply, the spot market is less. Bad, weak end demand; price increases downstream and middlemen stockpile enthusiasm weakened. Business agency aggregated MDI analysts expect short-term market consolidation high polymerization MDI.

Ethylene supply in Asian market is expected to be more abundant in 2019 due to the reduction in the number of cracking units planned for shutdown and maintenance in Japan, the expansion of cracking capacity in Asia and the reduction in the start-up rate of downstream ethylene plants.

The supply prospects of ethylene cargo for ocean-going vessels in the Asian market are mixed in 2019. Exports from Europe may be limited by a series of cracking plant shutdowns and overhauls, while exports from the United States may increase with the launch of new export facilities in the fourth quarter.

By the end of 2018, ethylene spot prices in Northeast Asia were weak. The trading price in the fourth quarter of 2018 was less than $1,000 per ton (CFR Northeast Asia), much lower than the $1,200-1,400 per ton (CFR Northeast Asia) in January-September 2018.

First, the price trend

According to the sample price monitored by the business community, the toluene market rose this week. This week, the comprehensive quotation of toluene rose from 7,109 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7,308 yuan / ton at the weekend, an increase of 199 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.80%. Overall, the overall toluene price of this week rose, up 36.29% year-on-year.

Second, the trend analysis

(1) Products:

The comprehensive price of toluene rose this week. From the manufacturer’s point of view, the average price of the factory price of toluene manufacturers rose this week. The price rose from 7055 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7278 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 223 yuan/ton, or 3.16%. From the point of view of dealers, the average price of toluene distribution for this week fell first and then rose. The price first fell from 7,230 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7,187 yuan / ton on October 18, down 43 yuan / ton, down 0.59%, and then rose to 7367 yuan / ton on the weekend. Overall, the overall price of toluene rose this week, with a large increase.

(2) Industry chain:

Upstream market conditions: This week’s naphtha offer fell slightly. The quotation fell from 6989 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6,971 yuan/ton at the weekend, down 18 yuan/ton, or 0.25%, up 43.68% year-on-year. The upstream price has fallen slightly, which has a negative impact on toluene.

Downstream market conditions: This week’s TDI distribution price was low, and the price was 22,600 yuan / ton, down 45.87% year-on-year. The PX’s ex-factory price was running at a high level this week, and the price was 11,000 yuan/ton, up 64.18% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market has risen, downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for the purchase of toluene, and demand for toluene has risen.

Third, the market outlook

After the adjustment in September, the market of various industries was further expanded. The demand for toluene in various refineries and refineries increased, and the downstream PX market operated at a high level. This is the main reason for the recent rise in toluene market, and domestic distributors are pricing the external price. External disk offers are on the rise. Toluene analysts of the business community believe that the price of toluene will fluctuate in late October, and the mainstream transaction price of toluene will remain around 7,300 yuan / ton.

First, the price trend

Recently, the market for butadiene continues to decline. Business community monitoring showed that as of October 11, the price of butadiene was 11,336 yuan / ton, and the price rose by 9.83%.

Second, the analysis of influencing factors

Products: Sinopec East China, South China, Central China prices cut 600 yuan / ton to 11300 yuan / ton, bad attitudes, but the impact on market prices is limited. Traders cautiously offered, and the market was very light. There are not many guidelines for the butadiene market in Shandong. The industry continues to bearish on the market outlook. Some private enterprises have a stable factory price of RMB 1,1,500/ton, and traders have stopped reporting. The price of Ning coal supply in Shandong area is 10600-10700 yuan/ton. There is a lack of guidance on the news of the butadiene market in East China. Traders are reluctant to sell at a low price. The downstream mentality is cautious and bearish, with few bids. Asian butadiene closing price, FOB Korea average price offer 1244-1252 US dollars / ton; CFR China average price offer 1195-1203 US dollars / ton.

Industry chain: styrene-butadiene rubber: Due to the weakness of natural rubber, and because some sales companies lowered the price, some companies introduced a batch policy, the styrene-butadiene rubber market showed a weak downward trend, and the offer basically revolved around the factory while the actual transaction price was upside down. And the transaction is dull. Butadiene rubber: The domestic butadiene rubber market is showing a decline. The merchant’s offer was at the ex-factory price, the atmosphere of the inquiry was weak, and there was no substantial buyer’s pick-up. The price of the talk was slightly upside down and just needed to be closed. SBS: The domestic SBS market oil rubber and dry rubber roads are narrowly adjusted.

Third, the market outlook

On the positive side, traders have low stocks on hand, and downstream latex manufacturers just need demand. In terms of bearishness, the demand for downstream synthetic rubber has been slow to follow, the outside butadiene is low, and the market supply of spot goods has increased. The butadiene analysts of the business community expect that the butadiene market will continue to be weak and pay attention to the latest price policy guidelines of Fushun Petrochemical and Sinopec.

On September 21, the domestic market for zinc metal was stable. The average price of metal zinc in the domestic spot market was 2,2690.00 yuan/ton, which was 0.06% lower than the previous day’s price. The average ex-factory price was 2,305.29 yuan/ton, compared with the previous trading day. The price rose by 0.12%.

On September 20th, the zinc (market) commodity index was 129.68, up 1.91 points from yesterday, down 16.75% from the highest point of 155.77 points (2017-10-09) in the cycle, compared with the lowest point of 72.28 on November 22, 2015. It has risen by 79.41%. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

On September 21, the zinc price was stable. Recently, the non-ferrous metal sector was fully red, and the zinc price followed the sharp rise. On September 21, the domestic zinc price was basically stable.

Domestically, in recent years, the approval of projects such as UHV and rail transit has been reopened, and a large number of infrastructure projects have been intensively started, and supporting policies have also entered the stage of intensive introduction. The increase in the construction of infrastructure projects will definitely drive the sharp increase in demand for zinc ingots. The demand for zinc in the market will increase, and the domestic zinc market is promising.

On the international front, the Trump administration said it would impose tariffs on about 200 billion US dollars of Chinese goods. As one of the measures to pressure China to change its business practices, the taxation began on the 24th and the Sino-US trade war escalated. The deterioration of the macroeconomic environment has created a negative impact on the non-ferrous metals market, and the zinc market has a downside risk.

Forecast of the market outlook: In terms of demand, in terms of demand, the construction of a large number of infrastructure projects has promoted a large increase in demand for zinc ingots, and the price of zinc has increased. However, the Sino-US trade war has escalated and the international economic environment has deteriorated, which has affected the recovery of zinc demand. On the supply side, the inventory of zinc ingots in the futures market dropped sharply. On the 21st, the inventory of Shanghai futures zinc ingots was 5,581 tons, and the futures inventory was reduced by 1,608 tons. In the spot market, the output of zinc mining enterprises decreased in August, but the overall zinc market still provided sufficient supply. The supply gap is reduced. In general, zinc market outlook is expected to grow, zinc prices are strong, domestic zinc mines are affected by environmental protection, supply is limited, and zinc prices are expected to rise in the market. However, due to the Sino-US trade war, zinc prices are unlikely to continue to rise sharply. The price fluctuated.

First, the price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic acetic acid market was stable in the week. At the beginning of the week, the domestic average price of acetic acid was about 4,200 yuan / ton, and the weekend was about 4,328 yuan / ton, which rose by 3.06% during the week, which was higher than the same period of last year. 40.89%.

Second, the cause analysis

Products: This week, the domestic acetic acid market has large regional differences: the northwest region is affected by transportation control, and the price of acetic acid has increased significantly. The enterprises in Henan province have been sold at low prices in the early stage, and now there are few stocks and more limited sales, and prices continue to rise. Potential; the spot supply in North China and East China is tight, the company’s inventory is low, and the current long-term and export orders. In terms of construction, this week, Celanese and Anhui Huayi have been running negatively. Tianjin Bohai Chemical has temporarily parked for 3 days, and other acetic acid production enterprises are operating normally. At present, the price in Henan is about 4200-4300/ton; the price in Shandong is about 4400 yuan/ton; the price in Hebei is 4300 yuan/ton; the price in Tianjin is 4250 yuan/ton, and the price in Shaanxi is 4200 yuan/ton. The price in Jiangsu is 4,400 yuan / ton, the price in Zhejiang is 4,550 yuan / ton, and the price in South China is 4,400 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price of each region is slightly lower than the quotation, which is mainly based on the negotiation.

Industry chain: upstream, this week, the domestic methanol market price surged and stabilized. At the beginning of the week, the domestic methanol market average price was 3035 yuan / ton, the weekend reported 3137 yuan / ton, the weekly increase of 2.96%; this week, the downstream acetate, acetic acid Ethylene and other industries performed strongly. Due to the proximity to the two festivals, enterprises actively purchase and stock up; this week, PTA was affected by the high price in the previous period, and the price has dropped slightly. The current price is about 9,100 yuan / ton.

International: This week, affected by the restart of Texas BP equipment, the North American acetic acid market fell sharply and is currently quoted at around US$910/ton. The Asian acetic acid market is affected by Sino-US trade war and RMB depreciation. Downstream customers are slightly in conflict with high prices. Acetic acid prices Concussion adjustment, currently quoted at 595-645 US dollars / ton; European acetic acid market affected by the increase in supply, acetic acid prices fell slightly, currently quoted at 870 euros / ton.

Third, the market outlook

At present, the overall operating rate of the acetic acid industry remains high, the company has long-term contract orders, low stocks, and some regions still sell goods. The overall demand of the downstream industry is stable, domestic demand is good, and the demand is close to double-segment, users are more bullish, so there are many Stocking intentions.

Santiago, September 7 news, the Chilean central bank released a report on Friday showed that Chile’s trade deficit in August was $302 million, which was the first time in two years that the deficit was recorded, while copper export revenue fell.

August copper export revenue fell 13% from the same period last year to 2.741 billion US dollars, due to Sino-US trade tensions affecting copper prices.

Chile is the world’s largest copper producer.

August 2018      July 2018      July 2017
Trade balance (million USD)        302                   375                676
Export ($1 billion)                         6.232              6.176             6.294
Imports ($1 billion)                       6.534               5.801               5.527
Copper export revenue ($1 billion) 2.741            3.004             3.176