Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 324.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 276.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 14.81%, up 47.20% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the domestic hydrochloric acid market fell slightly this week. On January 23, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 72.63, unchanged from yesterday, down 47.33% from the highest point 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 303.95% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Weak upstream support and general downstream procurement

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week. Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid offered 300 yuan / ton this weekend, which fell by 200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The price of synthetic hydrochloric acid from Wen Shui is 290 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid is quoted at 50 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Liaocheng Huatong hydrochloric acid offered 90 yuan / ton this weekend, which fell by 90 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Xiangcheng Sanan hydrochloric acid quoted 650 yuan / ton this weekend, up 50 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market fell slightly, weakening the support for hydrochloric acid. The price of downstream polyaluminium chloride increased slightly. The quotation increased from 2445.56 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2467.78 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.91%. The increase was small. It was mainly consolidation, with a year-on-year increase of 37.64% compared with the same period last year; The market price of ammonium chloride fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 1087.50 yuan / ton last weekend to 1075.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1.15%. On the whole, downstream products are not enthusiastic about purchasing hydrochloric acid, which has a negative impact on the price of hydrochloric acid.

Future forecast

The market of upstream liquid chlorine has declined recently, and the cost support is general. The market of downstream polyaluminium chloride and ammonium chloride has declined slightly, and the willingness to purchase downstream has weakened. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has mainly suffered a slight shock and decline recently.

Commodity index: on January 23, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 105.09, unchanged from yesterday, down 5.76% from the highest point of 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 26.78% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: data monitoring shows that the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market has remained stable at about 17200 yuan / ton this week (17-23). Approaching the Spring Festival holiday, the epidemic situation in many places is severe. Manufacturers limit production and stop production, and the inventory is sufficient. The downstream has no purchase intention a few years ago, and the market is basically static.

Industrial chain: acrylic acid: the average price in East China on Friday this week (17-23) was 13800.00 yuan / ton, up 0.73% from Monday, 5.08% from December 21, and 27.75% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. The acrylic acid market is steadily rising this week. Recently, the price of raw propylene is relatively strong, the cost support is rising, the load of some plants is reduced, the market supply is reduced, the downstream is orderly prepared, and the focus of market negotiation is high. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market will mainly operate at a high level, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance. Acrylonitrile: Since New Year’s day, the mainstream market of raw acrylonitrile has continued to decline first and then remained stable. In the first half of the month, acrylonitrile has been significantly reduced by about 1950 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream market quotation is stable at about 11450 yuan / ton. To sum up, the price of polyacrylamide raw materials has not changed much recently, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in downstream procurement. At present, it is basically in the state before the holiday, and there are few transactions.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG market rose first and then fell this week (17-23), and the decline was greater than the increase, falling by 4% during the week. When the week’s rise continued and the number of rising areas increased, a large area of China was red. Under the condition of low inventory pressure, the liquid plants had strong price support mood, with 17 and 18 rising by 1.81%. In the middle and late week, due to insufficient demand follow-up, some areas began to decrease slightly, and only a few areas such as Shanxi continued to rise. On the 20th, the auction of Northwest gas source ended in the fourth week. The transaction price was 2.88 yuan / m3, the trading volume was 15.2 million m3, and the flow auction was 4.8 million m3. The favorable auction did not give enough boost, and the domestic liquid price continued to fall. The LNG analyst of business agency believes that the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the downstream demand continues to weaken, and there is a certain pressure on the shipment of liquid plants. It is expected that the liquid price will stop falling and stabilize under the support of gas source auction in the short term, but there are still downward expectations.

Future forecast: the support of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid remains weak and stable with little change. There is no purchase demand in the downstream years ago, and the market of polyacrylamide is expected to remain at the current state by the end of the year.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, titanium dioxide prices have been stable and small this week. The average price of titanium dioxide in China was 20733.33 yuan / ton last Friday and 20850 yuan / ton this Friday. The price increased slightly within the week, with a range of 0.56%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market price rose steadily. Domestic titanium dioxide enterprises have good market confidence. At present, export orders are performing well, and domestic downstream manufacturers mainly hoarded goods in an appropriate amount years ago. In addition, the current high price of titanium ore is expected to rise, and the prices of individual titanium dioxide enterprises have increased slightly. Up to now, the factory quotation including tax of rutile titanium dioxide in China is 20500-21600 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is between 18500-19500 yuan / ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi increased this week. The titanium ore market is acceptable, the downstream market demand is acceptable, and the purchase is mainly on demand. Manufacturers send more early orders, small and medium-sized miners are slightly nervous about the spot, and the reluctance to sell is obvious. Up to now, the tax free quotation of 38 grade titanium ore is about 1500-1530 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2200-2280 yuan / ton, and that of 47 grade 20 ore is about 2500-2550 yuan / ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate will continue to be high and firm, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose this week according to the bulk list data of business society. So far, the average price of sulfuric acid in Shandong is 675 yuan / ton. The upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently, and the cost support is good. Some sulfuric acid manufacturers have insufficient operation, the load is reduced, the downstream formic acid and bromine market has stopped falling and rebounded, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm has been enhanced.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts of business society believe that the current titanium dioxide market demand is general. Internationally, the demand for foreign trade is acceptable and there is no pressure in the short term. On the whole, the raw titanium concentrate increased, the price of sulfuric acid increased, and the cost support was acceptable. It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will be mainly sorted out in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be mainly negotiated.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3050 yuan / ton on January 10 and 3090 yuan / ton on January 17. The price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 1.31% this week.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3595 yuan / ton on January 10 and 3595 yuan / ton on January 17. The price of diammonium phosphate was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

Monoammonium phosphate market rose steadily this week. The price of raw sulfur and phosphate rock is high, and the cost support is good. The demand for goods preparation before the first ammonium Festival has increased, and the enterprise has a large amount to be sent, mainly in the form of early orders. At present, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui is 3200-3300 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Henan is about 2800-2900 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

The market of diammonium phosphate is running smoothly this week. At present, the demand for diammonium is running well. Due to many early orders, some enterprises have suspended receiving orders. The price of raw sulfur is strong, the cost level is high, and the price of diammonium is high. The factory quotation of 64% mainstream diammonium in Hubei is 3550-3600 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

This week, the domestic market of raw phosphorus ore was consolidated at a high level. Near the Spring Festival, there was little change in the on-site supply, and the commencement remained low. The phosphorus ore was mainly used by its own or contract users. This week, the operating rate of compound fertilizer in the downstream increased, the price of compound fertilizer in some enterprises increased, and the on-site trading was good. The purchase of ammonium phosphate increased.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium phosphate analyst of business society believes that the downstream demand for ammonium phosphate is increasing, and the on-site procurement atmosphere is good. Due to sufficient orders for ammonium phosphate in the early stage, a small number of enterprises received orders. Under the support of cost, the market is strong and upward. The price of ammonium phosphate is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of January 17, 2022, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 9600 yuan / ton. Compared with January 14 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 9133 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 467 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.11%; Compared with the price on January 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 8300 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1300 yuan / ton, or 15.66%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that at the end of last week, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong finally rose after falling for several days. This week, the domestic n-butanol market was in short supply, the operators’ mentality was good, the downstream concentrated goods preparation was good, and the demand side performed well. On the 17th of the week, the domestic n-butanol market rose generally, and the factory increased by about 300-1200 yuan / ton, The high-end price of n-butanol broke through the 10000 yuan barrier again. The ex factory price of n-butanol in East China rose to 10200 yuan / ton, up 1200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend, and the ex factory price of n-butanol in South China rose to 10600 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. At present, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong is around 9300-10200 yuan / ton, and the average price is 9600 yuan / ton. Compared with last weekend, the single day increase is 5.11%. At present, the Spring Festival is approaching, the downstream goods preparation continues, there is no pressure on the shipment of n-butanol factory, the supply side supports the upward market focus, the low-end price of n-butanol has the ability to continue to move up, and the market price difference is expected to continue to narrow.

In terms of index, the commodity index of n-butanol (industrial grade) on January 16 was 74.46, the same as yesterday, down 43.50% from the highest point of 131.79 in the cycle (2021-05-16), and up 149.11% from the lowest point of 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

In terms of upstream propylene, according to the price map of business society, the price of propylene (Shandong) continued to rise slightly last week, and the increase was narrower than that of last week. As of last Friday, the propylene price in Shandong market was 7850-7900 yuan / ton. Due to the maintenance of enterprises in some areas, the supply is slightly tight, the downstream demand is insufficient, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the propylene price continues to rise, the resistance increases, the demand constraints, and the price is difficult to continue to break through. At the beginning of the week, the propylene market was 7780 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7870 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.36%.

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, the downstream performance of n-butanol is good, and the pressure of n-butanol supply surface is relatively low. The n-butanol data division of business society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong will continue to be stable and strong, and more attention needs to be paid to the basic changes in supply and demand.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of January 18, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 12133 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 10 (the reference price of butanone was 12333 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 200 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.62%; Compared with the price at the beginning of the month (the participating price on January 1 was 11533 yuan / ton), the price increased by 600 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.20%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that in early January, the domestic butanone market rose steadily after the new year’s day with the support of tight spot supply. On January 10, the ex factory price of domestic butanone was around 12200-12600 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.94% in the first ten days.

In the late stage, affected by insufficient demand follow-up, the overall trading atmosphere in the butanone market was cold and the mentality of the operators was frustrated. The butanone market fell for two consecutive days on November 11 and 12. Some factories successively reduced the ex factory price of butanone by 100-200 yuan / ton. The operators’ offers were mostly on the market with the line, their confidence continued to be suppressed, it was difficult to improve the enthusiasm of downstream procurement, and the actual volume was poor. On the 15th, The butanone factory in Shandong lowered the ex factory price of butanone again by about 200 yuan / ton, and then the butanone market was weak and deadlocked. As of the 18th, the ex factory price of domestic butanone was around 11800-12400 yuan / ton, and the average price was 12133 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.62% in the late stage compared with the 10th. At present, the trading atmosphere in the butanone floor is still weak, the transaction is negotiated according to the volume, and the market news is quiet.

In terms of index, the butanone commodity index on January 17 was 131.88, unchanged from yesterday, down 1.63% from the highest point of 134.06 in the cycle (2022-01-10), and up 161.36% from the lowest point of 50.46 on March 3, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from November 1, 2012 to now)

In the upstream, according to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas Civil Shandong market was 5610.00 yuan / ton on January 14 and 5380.00 yuan / ton on January 17, with a decline of 4.10% and an increase of 5.70% compared with January 1. On the 17th, the domestic liquefied gas market was mainly downward, with a significant decline in Shandong, ranging from 60-100 yuan / ton. At the weekend, the civil gas market in Shandong began to decline, and the market trading atmosphere was general. The slight rise of international crude oil has brought limited support to the market, the downstream mentality is cautious and wait-and-see, and there is no obvious pressure on refinery inventory. It is expected that the price may continue to weaken in the short term, but there is little room for decline.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the tight spot supply of domestic butanone still plays a certain supporting role in the market. With the calm downstream demand, the butanone market has little chance of sharp price decline with the support of the supply side. The butanone datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market is dominated by multi regional adjustment, and the sharp fluctuation of the market is limited, More attention should also be paid to the travel needs of raw materials and the follow-up of lower requirements.

According to the monitoring data, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride on January 15 was 132.19, an increase of 0.3 points compared with yesterday, a decrease of 7.33% compared with the highest point of 142.64 points in the cycle (2021-11-01), and an increase of 56.77% compared with the lowest point of 84.32 points on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

As shown in the figure, according to the monitoring data of business society, the market of water treatment products continued to fluctuate slightly in the first half of the month: the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminium chloride on the 1st was 2502.22 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 15th was about 2445.56 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.26%. Considering the current epidemic situation and the approaching Spring Festival, the number of enterprises that stopped production before the year increased, the inventory was sufficient, the demand was general, and the transaction was weak; Affected by the inventory situation, different enterprises have different prices. Some enterprises stopped production years ago and have tight inventory. Combined with the local increase of freight cost, the price of polyaluminium chloride has increased to a certain extent; It is understood that at present, most enterprises have sufficient inventory and the overall market is weak.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid remained flat at 324 yuan / ton in the first half of the month, which has lasted for many days. At present, the upstream liquid chlorine market is falling, giving poor support to hydrochloric acid, and the downstream ammonium chloride market is falling slightly. It is expected that the domestic hydrochloric acid market price may fluctuate slightly in the near future.

LNG is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG market fluctuated and decreased in the first half of the month. The average domestic price was 4710 yuan / ton on January 1 and 4610 yuan / ton on January 15, down 2.12%. The domestic liquid market has changed from continuous rising after the festival to frequent falling, and the price has also continued to decline. The decline was mainly due to the start-up and resumption of production of the early maintenance liquid plant and the increase of market supply. However, due to the impact of recent public health events in Henan and other places, the start-up of some end users was limited, the demand decreased, the shipping atmosphere of the liquid plant weakened, the sales pressure increased, the prices fell again and again, and many fell back below 5000 yuan, and the market focus moved down rapidly. The LNG analyst of business society believes that under the current situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the market, the domestic liquid market is weak. Although the raw material gas flow auction boosts the market, the decline of domestic liquid price slows down or rises slightly, it is difficult to form an inflection point. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range.

Future forecast: due to the current severe epidemic situation and the impact of spring break, more and more enterprises have stopped production, but the market supply is sufficient, the upstream raw material hydrochloric acid market continues to be stable, the downstream purchase intention is not strong, the trading continues to be weak, and the polyaluminium chloride Market has little change. It should be noted that the logistics costs in some areas of the main production areas will rise to a certain extent due to the epidemic and the Spring Festival, and the future market of polyaluminium chloride may rise due to this impact.

According to the data monitoring of business society, as of January 14, 2022, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China is around 690 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as that on January 10, and the average price is increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 1.47%, compared with December 1, 2021.

This week, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market was consolidated at a high level. Near the Spring Festival, there was little change in the supply side of the site, and the commencement remained low. The phosphorus ore was used by itself or mainly by contract users. The downstream demand side performed well. The downstream yellow phosphorus Market continued to move closer to the low-end price, the increase of market turnover gave support to the phosphorus ore market, and the phosphorus ore quotation was stable at a high level. As of January 14, the domestic phosphate rock Market in Guizhou has operated stably. The price of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant is around 630-680 yuan / ton, the price of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plant is around 580-620 yuan / ton, and the price of 22% grade phosphate rock platform is around 290-310 yuan / ton. In Hubei, China, phosphate rock mines are arranged and operated, and the quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate rock ship board is 680 yuan / ton. In Guangxi, the phosphate ore market operates steadily, and the factory price of 30% phosphate ore is around 640-680 yuan / ton. In Hubei, the phosphate ore market is in high order, and the quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate ore truck plate is 660-680 yuan / ton.

According to the business agency, the following is the current price of phosphate rock in some parts of China (for reference only)

product region grade Price remarks

Phosphate rock Guizhou 30% 630-670 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guizhou 28% 580-620 yuan / ton Factory price

Ammonium phosphate ore Hubei 30% 660-680 yuan / ton Plate price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 30% 640-680 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 28% 580-620 yuan / ton Factory price

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, with the return of new year’s day, the focus of the domestic yellow phosphorus market runs downward. At present, the overall trading of yellow phosphorus market has improved slightly, but the price is close to the low-end price, and the transaction price of the new order moves down. The confidence in the venue is not general. Traders wait and see more, downstream purchases lower prices, and enterprise prices lower. According to the monitoring data of business society, on January 13, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 32333.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 20.49% compared with January 1 (40666.67 yuan / ton).

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the supply and demand side of domestic phosphate rock quarry is relatively calm. Phosphate ore analysts of business society believe that in the short term, most domestic phosphate ore markets will be consolidated and operated temporarily, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand side.

Throughout 2021, the domestic asphalt market was strong and volatile. Since the end of the first quarter, the price has risen sharply, reached the highest point in the market at the beginning of the fourth quarter, and decreased narrowly at the end of the year, but the price increase is still obvious compared with that at the beginning of the year. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic asphalt manufacturers in Shandong was 2462 yuan / ton on January 1, 2021, and the price was 3151 yuan / ton as of December 27, an increase of 27.97% during the year. The highest price point was 3712 yuan / ton on October 22, and the lowest price point of the whole year was 2475 yuan / ton on January 4 at the beginning of the year, with a maximum amplitude of 49.98%.

Annual comparison chart of asphalt price of business society from 2017 to 2021:

The asphalt price fluctuated significantly in the first quarter, remained stable before the festival, and increased significantly after the lunar new year. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic asphalt price rose from 2462 yuan / ton to 2980 yuan / ton in the first quarter, an increase of 21.02%.

In January, some refineries and traders in Hebei and Shandong issued winter storage policies, with general prices and less acceptance by traders. At the same time, the demand in the southern market gradually weakened, the terminals were shut down one after another, the inventory of refineries accumulated slightly, and the intention of traders in the region to prepare goods was not strong. Demand constrains the price of asphalt. The extreme cold wave weather in February led to the decline of shale oil production in the United States, the tightening of supply expectations, boosted crude oil, and led to a sharp rise in international oil prices. International crude oil rose sharply, and the price of asphalt market increased significantly. In late March, driven by negative factors such as weak downward trend of international crude oil and limited demand follow-up, domestic asphalt prices rose first and then fell, and the market changes were more obvious.

Comparison chart of crude oil and asphalt price trend of business society in the first quarter of 2021:

In the second quarter, the domestic asphalt market continued to rise, and the rise slowed down. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic asphalt production enterprises in Shandong increased from 3096 yuan / ton to 3430 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.76%.

In April, the overall demand recovery was limited, the mainstream market quotation was mainly narrow and volatile, and the overall trend was weak. In May, there were obvious regional differences in asphalt market, and the downstream of some northern regions just needed support, and most of the operators mainly consumed inventory; A new round of rainfall in southern China affects the progress of downstream terminals, and the operators mainly ship goods scattered. In June, affected by the continuous rise of international crude oil prices, the prices of main refineries rose, the market supply of low-cost goods gradually decreased, and the asphalt Market in Shandong continued to rise.

Comparison chart of crude oil and asphalt price trend of business society in the second quarter of 2021:

In the third quarter, the domestic asphalt market fluctuated significantly, falling and rising, showing a high shock trend in the whole year’s price trend. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic asphalt production enterprises in Shandong increased from 3436 yuan / ton to 3536 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.89%.

In July, affected by Typhoon “fireworks”, many places ushered in rainy weather, which affected the downstream construction. The asphalt market was running at a low level. In August, affected by the environmental protection inspection of Jilin Province, Shandong Province, Hubei Province, Guangdong Province and Sichuan Province in the fourth batch of the second round in 2021, the recovery of market demand was limited, and the asphalt market was tepid. The international crude oil fluctuated at a high level in September. The support for asphalt cost is obvious, but the inspection is not over yet. Firstly, the increase of asphalt demand is not very obvious.

Comparison chart of crude oil and asphalt price trend of business society in the third quarter of 2021:

In the fourth quarter, the asphalt market rose first and then fell, bearing all the declines of the whole year. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic asphalt production enterprises in Shandong fell from 3536 yuan / ton to 3151 yuan / ton, a decrease of 10.88%.

In October, some areas in the North entered the stage of finishing and catching up, and the demand broke out intensively. In October, it still maintained an upward trend for some time. In November, the demand in the northeast and northwest stagnated, the demand in the North showed a weakening trend, there may be a small peak in the south, and the demand in the north and south is differentiated. In November, the domestic oil price fell sharply, the largest one-day decline since April last year. The cost support weakened, superimposed with the slowdown of just demand in winter, and the asphalt market was weak. The downturn ended.

Comparison chart of crude oil and asphalt price trend of business society in the fourth quarter of 2021:

Monthly K column chart of asphalt domestic production price of business society:

From the comparison chart of crude oil asphalt price trend of business society, it can be seen that the domestic asphalt Market in 2021 is highly consistent with the price trend of Brent crude oil.

In 2021, crude oil has been advancing all the way and rising in shock. According to the monitoring of business society, WTI crude oil surged from $48 at the beginning of the year to $80 in late October, and fell in shock in the two months at the end of the year. As of December 22, WTI rose 46.94% and Brent crude oil rose 43.29%. The core logic of the rise in oil prices in 2021 is basically highly related to the evolution trend of the epidemic. In addition, under the macro background of inflation expectations, supply tightening and economic recovery also provide impetus for the rise of oil prices.

In 2022, the business society predicts that 2022 may still be the era of high oil prices.

The trend of oil price in 2021 is highly related to the change of epidemic situation. The trend of epidemic situation in 2022 may improve as a whole and have a positive impact on oil price. Although the mutant strains Delta and Omicron will still play a role, vaccination and mass immunization will continue to weaken the impact of epidemic situation, and the global economy is still in the recovery channel.

At the beginning of 2022, especially around the lunar new year, the downtime nodes of downstream terminals of asphalt in China are different, and the downtime is gradually stopped from north to south. The downtime in the north is generally too long, mainly due to seasonal factors. The low temperature in winter in the north is not conducive to road construction. It is understood that the shutdown period in the lower reaches of northeast, northwest and Inner Mongolia is about 4-5 months. During this period, asphalt manufacturers mainly store and prepare goods in winter. The downtime of Shandong, Henan, Shanxi and the downstream of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is about 2-3 months. During this period, some terminals will have a small amount of goods ready for storage. When the regional price difference is appropriate, some traders will ship goods to the south. The shutdown period in East China, South China, Southwest China, Hunan and Hubei is about one month, which is mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and the terminal shutdown before and after the festival. Asphalt price is also affected, mainly in the doldrums.

Overall, the range fluctuation of asphalt market has become an inevitable trend of price trend at this stage. The crude oil is good, the demand side performance is low, and the two sides play a game. The asphalt analysts of the business society expect that the asphalt market will be mainly sorted out in the first quarter of 2022.

On January 11, international crude oil prices rose sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $81.22/barrel, up US $2.99 or 3.82%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $83.72/barrel, up US $2.82 or 3.52%. Oil prices hit a new high in nearly two months. Market participants generally expect that the mutated virus Omicron has a limited impact on the global economic recovery, but the oil supply is still tight, superimposed on investors’ belief that the Fed is not as good as the expected hawks, and the oil price rebounded sharply.

Tight supply expectations and rising risk appetite are good for oil prices

Previously, affected by the significant increase in new cases of mutant virus Omicron, oil prices fell for two consecutive days. At present, the main game point in the market is whether the impact of the epidemic on demand recovery is serious or not. Although Omicron virus continues to spread and the number of newly infected people has increased sharply, it has been detected that it is not as destructive to human body as expected, mostly mild diseases. The market generally bet that it has a limited impact on the global economic recovery.

In addition, at the macro level, the current performance of the Federal Reserve is relatively hawkish. The latest news, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said on the 11th that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates more times and reduce its balance sheet earlier and faster to deal with the continuous situation of high inflation in the United States. However, this did not change the market risk appetite. On the 11th, the stock market and oil market both rose strongly, mainly because the market generally believed that the Fed might not show its hawk card in actual action. Under the severe background of the epidemic, the U.S. economy is still relatively weak, which was also confirmed by the irrational employment data.

What is more important is the tension on the supply side. The current policy of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) is to gradually restore the oil production stopped during the epidemic by increasing by 400000 barrels / day month by month. In fact, OPEC + production is limited to a certain extent, and the supply growth is relatively slow. On the one hand, it is disturbed by the political factors of internal member states, and on the other hand, it is limited by budget tightening. This was fully illustrated by the previous political turmoil in Kazakhstan and the decline in Libyan crude oil production. In addition, the continuous decline of U.S. crude oil inventory also triggered supply concerns. API crude oil inventory decreased by 1077000 barrels in the week of January 7. It is generally expected that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on Wednesday still point to the decline of crude oil inventory.

Future risks are still focused on the uncertainty of the epidemic situation and the demand of the United States

First of all, the performance of US crude oil inventory data in the week before the festival was not ideal, especially the unexpected surge in gasoline inventory, reflecting that the US economy is still relatively fragile. Previous surveys showed that U.S. crude oil inventories may continue to decline last week, but gasoline and distillate inventories may still increase significantly. API also showed that U.S. refined oil inventories accumulated significantly. At present, the market is paying close attention to the release of U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.

In addition, the epidemic is still the biggest obstacle to economic recovery, especially the uncertainty it brings. Optimistic expectations may only be temporary. In the long run, the economic recovery is still shrouded by the epidemic, which puts pressure on oil prices.

On the whole, the business community believes that with the continuous rebound of oil prices, the risk of high accumulation is also increasing. In the short term, affected by tight supply, oil prices may still rise. However, in the medium and long term, it is difficult to continue the sharp rise of oil prices under the background of the tightening of monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the severe epidemic situation.