The spot tin market price (6.17-6.24) fell after the market shock this week. The average price in the domestic market was 249760 yuan / ton last weekend and 218110 yuan / ton this weekend, a weekly drop of 12.67%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the concept of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the overall trend of lead price is weak after April.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 25th week of 2022 (6.20-6.24), there is one commodity in the non-ferrous sector, with antimony (1.24%) rising. A total of 20 commodities fell month on month, and 4 commodities fell by more than 5%, accounting for 17.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were tin (-10.58%), nickel (-9.11%) and cobalt (-7.26%). The average rise and fall this week was -2.37%.

Futures market situation this week

varieties., Closing price, Compared with the same period last week, Inventory (ton)

Shanghai tin, 204860 yuan / ton- 40650 yuan / ton, three thousand seven hundred and twenty-six

London tin, USD 25175 / T- USD 5975 / T, three thousand four hundred and thirty-five

In the futures market, the price of Shanghai tin fluctuated this week. The weekly fluctuation range was within 17%. The main contract of Shanghai tin fell sharply this week. The large decline this week was mainly affected by the entry of short funds. At present, the overall inventory of Shanghai tin is still low, and the market is obviously disturbed by funds. This week, the smelter gradually entered the maintenance period. The number of manufacturers offering prices in the market decreased significantly. Boosted by the decrease in supply, the manufacturers’ attitude of price support is strong. The overall demand performance in the downstream is average, and the overall market performance is weak. Therefore, the trend of tin price is greatly affected by the futures market, and it is expected that the future market will still maintain a wide range of volatility.

Acetic anhydride prices rebounded and rose this week

According to the data monitoring of the business club, the price of acetic anhydride first fell and then rose this week, and the market of acetic anhydride hit the bottom and rebounded. As of June 24, the price of acetic anhydride was 7450 yuan / ton, down 3.25% from the price of 7700 yuan / ton on June 19 last weekend. On June 21, the price of acetic anhydride hit the bottom, and on June 24, the price of acetic anhydride was up 1.71% from the price of 7450 yuan / ton on June 21. The price of acetic acid hit the bottom and rebounded, the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride rose, and the market for acetic anhydride stopped falling and recovered.

Raw material acetic acid prices hit bottom and rebounded

It can be seen from the trend chart of acetic acid price of business club that the acetic acid price hit the bottom and rebounded this week, and the acetic acid market picked up this week. As of June 24, the price of acetic acid was 4112.50 yuan / ton, down 0.90% from 4150 yuan / ton on June 17 last week; Compared with the price of 3962.50 yuan / ton on June 20 at the beginning of the week, the price increased by 3.79%. This week, the price of acetic acid hit the bottom and rebounded. The driving force for the rise of acetic acid, the cost of acetic anhydride and the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride increased.

High methanol price drops

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business club, the high methanol price fell this week, and the methanol market fell violently. As of June 24, the methanol price was 2655 yuan / ton, down 2.12% from 2712.5 yuan / ton on June 17 last week. This week, the price of methanol fell violently, the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride fell, the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Outlook

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of business agency, the raw material methanol market fell violently this week, the acetic acid price rebounded and rose, and the cost of acetic anhydride stopped falling and rebounded; This week, the maintenance of acetic acid enterprises increased, the supply of acetic acid decreased, the demand was off-season, the price of acetic acid stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost of acetic anhydride rose. In general, the price of acetic anhydride raw materials stopped falling and rebounded, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will rebound and rise in the future.

According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of June 22, the average price of melamine enterprises was 9533.33 yuan / ton, down 0.68% compared with last Thursday (June 16), down 6.31% compared with May 22, and down 22.28% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

The recent (6.16-6.22) melamine market is weak. Recently, the price of raw material urea has mainly fallen, the cost support has weakened, the overall inventory of melamine on the supply side is high, but the follow-up on the demand side is still insufficient, the shipment of enterprises is not smooth, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and the focus of melamine market negotiation has fallen.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market rose slightly on June 22. On June 22, the reference price of urea was 3095.00, a decrease of 3.31% compared with June 1 (3201.00). From the perspective of supply: some manufacturers plan to overhaul recently, and the daily output of urea has decreased slightly, so the supply is relatively insufficient.

Melamine analysts of the business agency believe that at present, the price of raw urea has risen slightly, the cost support is limited, and the operating rate of melamine is high, but the demand side is weak. It is expected that the melamine market may operate stably and weakly in the short term.

This week (June 13-17), the price of domestic liquid ammonia fell sharply. Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan and Hubei have declined to varying degrees. The weekly decline accumulated around 300 yuan / ton. The market supply has changed and the ammonia supply has increased. However, the demand for chemical fertilizer in the downstream is weak, and the resistance to high prices has further suppressed some rigid demand. Lower downstream prices, terminal prices have also been lower. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of June 17, the current weekly decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong is nearly 5%, and the mainstream quotation range at the weekend is 4600-4850 yuan / ton.

Supply side

On the supply side, this week, the overall ammonia release in many domestic places continued to rise compared with the previous week, and the overall supply pressure increased. The urea price retreated, and the manufacturer’s profit was poor, resulting in the reduction of the unit’s conversion to urea. Recently, the ammonia quantity is still rising. Therefore, the overall supply of liquid ammonia surged, and the short-term surge in supply led to partial excess.

Cost side

The upstream coal market is gradually warming up, squeezing the downstream liquid ammonia profits. However, the national regulation of coal prices is still within a reasonable range, and the downstream cost pressure is not large. At present, the downstream methanol and liquid ammonia manufacturers’ profits are still within a reasonable range. The price of natural gas also declined, easing the cost pressure of gas head enterprises. According to the monitoring of the business community, LNG rose by 0.79% this week.

Demand side

From the terminal point of view, the downstream demand for liquid ammonia is rigid and stable, with no increment. The price of urea fell, and ammonium nitrate, ammonium chloride and other products mainly stopped rising. The agricultural demand is weakened and the industrial demand is insufficient. Buying up rather than buying down, agricultural fertilizer preparation slowed down. The wheat harvest gradually ended and agricultural demand weakened. Compound fertilizer is mainly followed up according to the needs. Plate plant enterprises are generally started, and just need to purchase. Melamine prices have decreased slightly, and their enthusiasm for urea procurement has weakened. From the perspective of supply, the daily output of urea was maintained at a high level, and the urea supply increased due to the release of some summer tube fertilizers.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. Recently, the price of liquid ammonia has dropped significantly, deeper than that of urea, and the price difference between them has widened. However, it is still at a reasonable level.

From the above figure, the profit of the liquid ammonia industrial chain is still within a reasonable range. The price of natural gas upstream of the gas head has been declining in the early stage. At present, the increase is limited, but the coal price continues to rise. Affected by the policy, the price is still under control, which is conducive to easing the pressure on downstream costs. Due to the weakening of seasonal demand, the middle and lower reaches such as urea turned down, the rise of compound fertilizer stopped, the enterprise profits met the test, and the profits of liquid ammonia, urea and compound fertilizer decreased significantly compared with the previous period.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the business agency, at present, the supply pressure in the domestic liquid ammonia market has increased, and the shipment speed of manufacturers has decreased significantly. In addition, the weakening of agricultural demand has also brought bad news. Therefore, the price of liquid ammonia may still fall.

According to the monitoring data of the business club, as of June 21, 2022, the market price of organosilicon DMC in mainstream regions was 20500 yuan / ton, which was 540 yuan / ton lower than the price on June 17, 2022 (organosilicon DMC reference price of 21040 yuan / ton), a decrease of 2.57%, and 1400 yuan / ton lower than the price on June 13, 2022 (organosilicon DMC reference price of 21900 yuan / ton), a decrease of 6.39%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business club that this week, the overall decline of the domestic organosilicon DMC market continued last week, and the market price continued to adjust downward. Last week, the domestic market price of organosilicon DMC was lowered successively, and the price of large factories in Shandong was adjusted from 22300 yuan / ton to around 20800 yuan / ton. This week, the organosilicon DMC market as a whole continued to decline in a weak position. At the beginning of the week (20th and 21st), Shandong big factory lowered the organosilicon DMC price again by 600 yuan / ton, and the organosilicon DMC price of the factory fell to 20200 yuan / ton. Leading manufacturers also lowered the price of organosilicon DMC by 1000 yuan / ton. The price of organosilicon DMC in this factory was 20500 yuan / ton. Other factories mostly chose to follow the decline or not offer for the time being. As of the 21st, the ex factory price of domestic organosilicon DMC was around 20200-20600 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.57% in two days and 6.39% in late June. At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the floor is calm, with the downstream mainly watching the market, some downstream digesting the early inventory, and some downstream replenishing according to their own conditions or bargain hunting.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, the domestic metal silicon market has been mainly rising recently (6.13-6.21). At present, the metal silicon has a strong bullish atmosphere, and the early losses have led to a strong willingness of silicon factories to raise prices. At the beginning of the week, the large northern factories took the lead in raising prices, leading some small and medium-sized enterprises to follow. As of June 20, according to the price monitoring of the business community, the average reference price of 441\, Compared with June 13 (17240 yuan / ton), it increased by 12.78%.

Aftermarket forecast of organosilicon DMC

At present, the demand side of the organosilicon DMC market is still relatively quiet as a whole. On the demand side, the downstream mainly takes a wait-and-see approach to the fluctuation of the market. On the supply side, the rising market of raw metal silicon has given organosilicon DMC some cost support. The organosilicon DMC datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic organosilicon DMC market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the basic changes in the supply and demand side.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic rare earth market price index was mainly stable this week, the domestic rare earth industry had little change, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price trend was temporarily stable. On June 19, the rare earth index was 856 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.00% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 215.87% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The price of some products in the domestic light rare earth market fell slightly this week, and the trend of some mainstream praseodymium neodymium products in the rare earth market was mainly stable. In terms of products:

It can be seen from the product price trend chart that the domestic prices of neodymium metal, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide and metal praseodymium are stable, and the prices of praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide are slightly lower. As of the 20th, the price of neodymium oxide in rare earth in China was 980000 yuan / ton, which was stable this week; The price of neodymium is 1.2 million yuan / ton, which is flat; The price of praseodymium oxide is 980000 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 947500 yuan / ton, down 1.56% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 1156500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.73%; The price of praseodymium metal is 1.265 million yuan / ton, the price trend is temporarily stable, and the domestic rare earth market is mainly stable.

The domestic rare earth market price is mainly stable, and the downstream procurement is not active recently. Some metal plants have procurement demand, and the on-site price is slightly lower. The inventory of downstream magnetic material enterprises in the field is not high, but the spot purchase demand is still there, and the rare earth market is higher. Due to the normal supply of praseodymium and neodymium oxide and other mainstream products of some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises are affected by the shortage of waste supply, and the raw material inventory is insufficient to reduce production. Most of the magnetic material enterprises are located in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of downstream new energy vehicles and electric two wheeled vehicles has decreased, the demand for spot procurement is weak, and the price trend in the market is stable. The downstream demand side has not been significantly improved, the procurement demand is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is general, and the market consolidation of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium is mainly focused. In addition, the rare earth metal plant is cautious in purchasing without lock orders, and the consolidation of the rare earth market in the site is the main thing.

The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing. Rare earth is purchased on demand. At present, the inventory of neodymium oxide praseodymium has not changed much. Affected by the sentiment of buying up but not buying down, the market price has risen slightly. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. According to the data released by the China Automobile Industry Association, in May 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 1.926 million and 1.862 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 59.7% and 57.6% respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% and 12.6% respectively. The automobile production and sales have risen sharply. Recently, the demand in the new energy field has been normal, the domestic light rare earth market has remained high, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price has remained stable.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price trend of dysprosium Series in China is temporarily stable. As of the 20th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.545 million yuan / ton, and the price trend this week is temporarily stable; Dysprosium ferroalloy price is 2535000 yuan / ton, with a stable trend; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.315 million yuan / ton, and the price trend was stable this week; The price trend of domestic terbium is mainly stable. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 14.45 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 18.45 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earths is weak and stable. The leading magnetic material factory purchases on demand, which keeps the domestic heavy rare earth market at a high level. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the areas where light rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places is reduced. The reduction of this part of supply has little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in the areas where light rare earth mines are used. However, recently, with the epidemic situation being controlled, the production enterprises have started gradually, the supply has eased, and the rare earth market atmosphere continues to be flat, The downstream magnetic material enterprises just need to follow up as planned, and their mood is more cautious. However, the export of Myanmar is limited, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price trend of heavy rare earth in the market is temporarily stable.

In addition, the national policy supports the rare earth market. In 2022, the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators meet expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the mining indicators and smelting separation indicators are 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the indicators is in line with expectations, and the country is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply indicators. In 2022, the first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators were +20% year-on-year, with a growth rate lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year +27.3%/27.6%). It is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still focused on light rare earth. Among the mining indicators in 2022, the rock ore type rare earth (mainly light rare earth) is 89310 tons, a year-on-year increase of +23.2%, and the ionic rare earth is 11490 tons, which is flat year-on-year. It is expected that the increment concentrated on light rare earth will be a long-term trend, and the domestic rare earth market will still be supported in the long run.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable-frequency air conditioners in the downstream of rare earth is guaranteed in terms of long-term demand. In addition, the recent news of resumption of work and production continues to spread, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has increased. With the continuous change of the global supply pattern of rare earth raw materials, the deepening of the requirements of innovation driven green development, the continuous strengthening of the normative governance of the domestic rare earth industry and the further deepening of the understanding of resource scarcity, the upstream ion mines The waste cost is high and the supply is low, which still supports the price of rare earth. Chen Ling, an analyst at business agency, predicts that the domestic rare earth market price may remain high.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of the business club, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite remained stable this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 3316.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3316.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, which remained stable as a whole.

The overall market performance of sodium pyrosulfite this week was average. The domestic industrial sodium pyrosulfite market price range was 3000-3550 yuan / ton, and most prices were concentrated around 3200-3300 yuan / ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, mainly to complete the orders of old customers, and the increase of new orders is limited. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are only for reference and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact the manufacturers for details).

Since the beginning of June, the price of domestic soda ash has increased by 2.81% and the price of sulfur has decreased by 1.89%. In general, the upstream raw material cost of sodium pyrosulfite is still high, and the strong cost will support the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

Aftermarket forecast

The analysts of the business club believe that the raw material cost continues to be high, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to be strong in the short term.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the recent domestic potassium sulfate Market is at a high level and sideways, and some spot prices continue to rise. As of June 16, the average price of domestic potassium sulfate 50 particles was 5566.67 yuan / ton, up or down +1.21% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

This week, the domestic potash fertilizer market momentum was OK. The operating rate of potassium sulfate Mannheim enterprises was sideways, maintained at 40%, and the on-site supply continued to be tight. In terms of potassium chloride, the price of potassium at home and abroad is strong and rising. In addition, the previous procurement support of potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate enterprises, the market of potassium chloride is still strong. The situation in Eastern Europe, Russia and Ukraine has been tense for a long time. The export of potash fertilizer producing areas has been restricted. The arrival volume of border trade has increased in a narrow range. The offers of enterprises and businesses in the field have been firm, and a few have decreased in a narrow range. Support for processing potassium sulfate enterprises. At present, the impact of health incidents in East China and Northeast China is gradually decreasing, and shipments in many regions are resuming. There are still price adjustment offers in the floor, and the new single price of potassium sulfate is at a high level. In terms of demand, the on-site trading is average, and the downstream purchasing is relatively stable.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of the business agency believe that the high price of domestic potassium sulfate is strong this week, and the high price of potassium chloride is stable. The domestic potassium sulfate cost support is relatively strong, the demand side follow-up is OK, and the supply side remains compact. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic potassium sulfate price may still be affected by solid fundamentals and run at a high level.

From June 2 to June 10, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene was raised as a whole. It was 7345 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 7947 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a weekly increase of 8.2%.

On June 9, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $121.51/barrel, down US $0.60 or 0.5%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $123.07/barrel, down US $0.51 or 0.4%. The oil price is still running at a high point, with little change in supply and demand fundamentals. This was mainly driven by the sharp rise in refined oil products, and oil prices were supported by the expectation of tight supply and demand growth.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

June 6, 9500.,+200

June 8, 9700.,+200

June 10, 10000.,+300

Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene. On June 8, 2022, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton to 10000 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: HSBC Petrochemical offers 10000 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical offers 10003 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 10000 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical offers 9900 yuan / ton.

This week, the crude oil price rose as a whole, and the external price of pure benzene rose, which provided a good support for the fundamentals of the industrial chain. This week, Sinopec continuously raised the production price of pure benzene, which once again boosted market confidence, and local refining enterprises followed suit. Over the weekend, it was reported that an accident occurred in a factory in South Korea, resulting in the shutdown of about 380000 tons of pure benzene production capacity, and the market speculation was positive. This week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China fell significantly, and the overall support of the market was strong. However, Shandong was dragged down by poor downstream demand. Although the price rose positively this week, there was still a certain price difference with East China, and the actual transaction was weak. At present, the mainstream price of pure benzene in China is 8750-9350 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrogenated benzene fluctuates with that of pure benzene. At present, the market price in East China has risen to about 9200-9300 yuan / ton.

Buoyed by the favorable industrial chain, the bidding price of crude benzene market increased significantly this week. In Shandong Province, 7970 ~ 7975 yuan / ton was implemented. In terms of coking enterprises, the start-up was slightly lower this week, and the supply of crude benzene was slightly tight. After the first round of coke increase was implemented this week, the mentality of coking enterprises improved, and the start-up may be improved. In the downstream, the recent trend of hydrobenzene is good. Is the enterprise active in operation? The overall operating rate is more than 70%, and the demand for crude benzene is well supported. From the perspective of future market, at present, the fundamentals are favorable and the support is strong, and the downstream demand is OK, boosting the overall trend of the industrial chain. It is expected that the market will maintain a stable, medium and strong trend in the near future. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of international crude oil market, external market, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics, demand side changes, etc. on the price of pure benzene.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of June 14, the average price of melamine enterprises was 9356.67 yuan / ton, down 3.21% compared with last Tuesday (June 7), 9.16% compared with May 14, and 22.03% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently (6.8-6.14) the melamine market fell. Recently, the price of raw urea has risen, the cost support has risen, and the mentality of manufacturers has been supported. The operating rate of melamine has increased, but the demand side performance is poor, the enterprise sales are under pressure, the market trading atmosphere is flat, and the price of melamine is loose.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market was temporarily stable on June 14. On June 13, the reference price of urea was 3251.00, up 1.56% compared with June 1 (3201.00). From the perspective of supply, the daily output of urea is about 170000 tons, which is at a high level, but the factory inventory and social inventory are at a low level, and the supply of goods in some regions is tight.

Melamine analysts of business agency believe that at present, the raw material urea operates stably, which has certain support for the market. The operating rate of melamine is high, but the demand side is not followed up enough, and the supply and demand pattern is weak. It is expected that the melamine market may operate weakly and stably in the short term.