1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol continued to fall this month, and the average price of domestic mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol fell from 12833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 11066.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 13.77%. On July 28, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 53.33, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a new low in the cycle, down 48.53% from the peak of 103.61 on September 22, 2021. (Note: the period refers to 2021-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream neopentyl glycol manufacturers fell slightly this month

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price has experienced twists and turns this month, with a volatile decline. The price of isobutyraldehyde fell from 8466.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7266.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 14.17%. The ex factory price of formaldehyde in China fell slightly this month. The price of formaldehyde fell from 1270.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1206.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 4.99%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell sharply, which had a negative impact on the price of neopentyl glycol due to the impact of supply and demand.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and early August, the overall trend of neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly. At the end of the month, the upstream isobutyraldehyde market has an upward trend, the cost support has improved, the downstream coating market is general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general. The neopentyl glycol analyst of business agency believes that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly due to the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid fell slightly in July. As of the end of the month, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11280 yuan / ton, down 0.09% from the price of 11290 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 12.57% year-on-year.

In July, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid declined slightly. As of the end of the month, the mainstream price negotiated in various regions of domestic hydrofluoric acid was 10900-11300 yuan / ton, and the quotation of some manufacturers was higher than the market price. The actual transaction price in the market this week mainly declined. Recently, the domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid was normal, but the downstream acceptance was not high, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid fell slightly.

Recently, the on-site spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in China is normal, the on-site hydrofluoric acid device operates stably, and the manufacturer’s order situation is poor. Up to now, the mainstream hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 10800-11300 yuan / ton, and the hydrofluoric acid price in the northern market is 10800-11200 yuan / ton. In June, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price fell, the downstream construction remained at a low level, the on-site transaction was acceptable, and the hydrofluoric acid market price fell slightly.

The market price of fluorite, the raw material of hydrofluoric acid, rose slightly. As of the end of the month, the domestic fluorite price was 2700 yuan / ton. The fluorite price rose 0.41% in July. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was normal, but the logistics in some regions was limited, the spot on the floor was tight, and the domestic fluorite price trend rose slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiation is 2600-2700 yuan / ton. The price of fluorite in the venue has risen, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the venue has a limited decline due to the support of raw materials.

The price of downstream refrigerant products rose slightly. The operating rate of the refrigerant industry in the field remained low. Recently, the sales of the automotive industry increased month on month. The refrigerant market changed little. In terms of demand, the refrigerant industry mainly purchased on demand, and the refrigerant industry market rose slightly. On the whole, the refrigerant market is mainly stable, and the price trend of chloroform is declining, which makes the cost of the refrigerant industry decline. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 has risen slightly. The main manufacturers of refrigerants are still not operating well, and the market supply is normal, but the demand is general. The demand in R22 market application field is poor, and the enterprise quotation is mainly stable. Up to now, the R22 market quotation is in the range of 17000-18000 yuan / ton. Domestic R134a prices rose slightly, trichloroethylene prices remained low, cost support was limited, R134a market prices rose slightly, and the focus of trading was low. At present, the market quotation of R134a is in the range of 19000-23000 yuan / ton, the high price transaction is weak, the market sentiment is poor, the enterprise is eager to ship, the actual transaction is more profitable, the downstream refrigerant market is slightly higher, and the price of hydrofluoric acid is slightly lower due to this.

From the perspective of the industrial chain chart, the fluorine chemical industry has a poor market, and the price of raw material fluorite has risen, but the price trend of sulfuric acid raw material has fallen, and the price of downstream refrigerant products has remained low. In addition, the recent domestic supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient. Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst of business agency, believes that the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid may decline slightly in the later period.

Price trend in July

According to the monitoring data of the bulk list of business society, the price trend of cryolite in July fell first and then rose. On July 31, the average market price in Henan was 7650 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.66% over the price of 7600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 19.53% year-on-year.

In July, the domestic cryolite market was consolidated and operated, and the market supply and demand performance was deadlocked. Due to the shortage of raw materials and the high cost pressure of enterprises, the manufacturer’s inventory was tight, the downstream demand was stable, and the enterprise’s shipment was relatively smooth. The manufacturer quoted a small adjustment according to its own shipment situation, the overall price trend was high, and the cryolite market operated firmly. As of the 31st, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan was 7200-8600 yuan / ton, and the range price was reduced by 100 yuan / ton month on month; The ex factory quotation in Shandong is about 8000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

Upstream and downstream market analysis

Upstream, the domestic soda ash market declined as a whole. On July 31, the average price of soda ash was 2820 yuan / ton, down 3.42% from 2920 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. During the month, soda ash was mainly downward, and the downstream had resistance to high price sources. The enthusiasm for entering the market was general, the atmosphere of on-site trading was light, the manufacturers negotiated to ship, the market focus shifted downward, and the soda ash market was weak.

In the downstream aluminum market, the market trend first fell and then rose in June. On July 31, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 18633.33 yuan / ton, down 2.27% from the average market price of 19066.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. In early July, the social inventory was removed periodically. After the price reduction, the purchasing atmosphere increased and the price stopped rising. However, at present, the downstream demand is off-season, the order is limited, and the support is insufficient. In terms of supply and demand performance, the aluminum ingot price is mainly volatile in the short term.

Aftermarket forecast

At present, the cryolite market is dominated by wait-and-see operation, the high price is strong, the supply of raw materials is tight, the support is strong, the cryolite price remains high, the downstream demand is stable, the shipment is OK, and the operator’s mentality is stable. In terms of supply and demand performance, the short-term cryolite market continues to be high and stable, and it is expected that the cryolite price may fluctuate slightly in the later period.

Summary of precious metal spot price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in early trading on July 29 was 4409.33 yuan / kg, up 0.40% from the average price of 4391.67 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (July 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 4770 yuan / kg, a decrease of 7.56%.

On July 29, the spot market price of gold was 381.61 yuan / g, down 2.24% from the early average price of 390.34 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (July 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 2.48%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different. Today, silver rose sharply with the price of non-ferrous metals.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Policy Overview

1. Domestic policy:

A 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 2billion yuan was carried out today, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.10%, unchanged from the previous period. Due to the maturity of 3billion yuan reverse repurchase today, a net withdrawal of 1billion yuan was achieved on that day.

2. International Policy:

After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points in July, central banks around the world followed suit. For example, the Saudi central bank raised key interest rates by 75 basis points; The Central Bank of Qatar raised the deposit interest rate by 75 basis points and the loan interest rate by 50 basis points; The Central Bank of Bahrain raised the weekly deposit rate by 75 basis points; The Central Bank of Kuwait raised the discount rate by 25 basis points.

Aftermarket forecast

In terms of international policy, the expectation that some central banks in the world will significantly raise interest rates and the monetary policy of major central banks as a whole will be tightened is intensifying. In particular, the Federal Reserve will control inflation by raising interest rates, and the price of interest-free asset precious metals is under pressure. However, due to the strong expectation of interest rate hike in the early stage, the bad news was released in advance. The landing of interest rate hike boots was in line with the 75 basis points expected by the market, and the uncertainty was weakened. In addition, recently, nonferrous bulk commodities began to rebound at the bottom, driving the short-term rebound of silver prices with strong physical attributes.

On the other hand, geopolitical uncertainty has strengthened. On the 28th, former Japanese defense minister Shigeru Ishiba and other Japanese congressmen rushed to Taiwan to cooperate with the speaker of the house of representatives of the United States, who has been planning to visit Taiwan; US House Speaker Pelosi will lead a delegation to visit Asia on the 29th, and Taiwan’s trip is listed as “pending”. If the trip takes place, this serious political provocation is bound to trigger a response from both the military and political sides of our country, and the international situation between China and the United States is unclear. This uncertainty leads to a certain degree of risk aversion.

In the short term, the price of precious metals may continue to rise, but the upside space is narrowed.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of July 28, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-class power product, was 155000 yuan / ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged and operated smoothly. The price fluctuation range was small. You Gang mainly needed to purchase, and the purchasing atmosphere was general. The overall market operated smoothly. At present, the manufacturer’s supply was still tight, and the supply side was obviously insufficient. It was mainly contract customers who arranged orders and delivered goods, and the number of new orders was limited, The overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, and the current mainstream price range is 155000-160000 yuan / ton.

Upstream lithium carbonate: the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 461000 yuan / ton on July 27, up 0.44% from the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 459000 yuan / ton on July 1). On July 27, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 479600 yuan / ton, up 0.33% from the average price at the beginning of the month (July 1, the average price of carbon in East China was 478000 yuan / ton).

Chemical commodity index: on July 27, the chemical index was 999 points, down 11 points from yesterday, down 28.64% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 67.06% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Analysts of business club lithium iron phosphate believe that lithium iron phosphate will run smoothly in the short term. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

he price of orthobenzene stabilized this week

According to the trend chart of the price of ortho xylene in the business community, the price of ortho xylene was adjusted weakly this week, the price of ortho xylene in the external market fell violently, and the domestic ortho xylene market was adjusted weakly. As of July 25, the price of orthobenzene was 8300 yuan / ton, down 3.49% from 8600 yuan / ton on July 17 last weekend; Compared with the price of 8300 yuan / ton of orthobenzene on July 18 at the beginning of last week, it remained stable. The weak market of the industrial chain remained stable, and the weak market of orthobenzene stabilized this week.

Mixed xylene prices fell first and then rose this week

According to the trend chart of mixed xylene in business society, the price of mixed xylene fell first and then rose this week. As of July 25, the price of mixed xylene was 8230 yuan / ton, down 0.84% from 8300 yuan / ton on July 17 last weekend; Compared with the price of 8230 yuan / ton of mixed xylene on July 18 at the beginning of last week, it has stabilized. This week, the price of mixed xylene was weak and stable, the cost of o-xylene was stable, and the downward pressure of o-xylene remained.

Downstream phthalic anhydride prices fell in shock

As can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart of business club, the phthalic anhydride price fell violently this week, and the phthalic anhydride market stopped falling and stabilized. As of July 25, the phthalic anhydride price was 7975 yuan / ton, down 1.85% from 8125 yuan / ton on July 17 last weekend. The price of phthalic anhydride fell this week, and the downward pressure of o-xylene still exists.

Outlook

Analysts of o-xylene data of business society believe that the price of mixed xylene has stabilized this week, and the raw material cost of o-xylene has stabilized; The price of phthalic anhydride in the downstream fell violently, and the demand for phthalic anhydride was weak. In general, the cost of ortho xylene stabilized, the downstream demand was weak, the external price of ortho xylene fluctuated and fell, the rising momentum of ortho xylene weakened, and the downward pressure remained. It is expected that the price of ortho xylene will be weak and stabilize in the future.

This week, the overall trend of domestic EVA market price is still weak, and the price fell significantly. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 22500.00 yuan / ton on July 17 and 21566.67 yuan / ton on July 25, with a decrease of 4,15% during the week and an increase of 19.59% over the same period last year.

As of July 25, the ex factory quotation of EVA is as follows:

Product, manufacturer, model, ex factory price

EVA, Yanshan Petrochemical, 18j3, 22000 yuan / ton

Eva., Beijing Organic, y2022, 20000 yuan / ton

EVA, BASF Yangtze, v5110j, 22700 yuan / ton

The domestic EVA market trend has not improved this week, and the price continues to decline, with a relatively obvious range. The ex factory quotation of petrochemical enterprises continues to decline, with a range of 500-2000 yuan / ton. At present, the support brought by the current market cost is insufficient, the international crude oil price fluctuates downward, and the vinyl acetate and ethylene markets have declined, affecting the market mentality. There is little change in terminal demand, the overall tight market situation remains unchanged, downstream demand is difficult to improve, the willingness to purchase is low, the market trading atmosphere is limited, and the quotations of merchants are mostly followed by weakness.

At present, the support brought about by the current cost is insufficient. The factory quotations of petrochemical enterprises are mostly reduced, the market supply consumption is slow, the terminal demand is difficult to improve, the downstream market entry atmosphere is limited, the merchant quotations follow the decline, and the market lacks positive support. It is expected that the price of domestic EVA market will continue to decline in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of July 25, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 10100.00 yuan / ton, down 2.26% from last Monday (July 18), 27.51% from June 25, and 30.02% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently (7.18-7.25), the acrylic acid market fell. Recently, the raw material propylene market fluctuated and fell, and the cost support was limited. During the parking and overhaul of some enterprises, the overall load rate of the market was not high, but the downstream procurement was cautious, the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, the market atmosphere was general, and the transaction was just in demand.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of business news agency, the recent (7.18-7.22) domestic propylene (Shandong) market price volatility fell. The average price of Shandong market was 7354 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 7340 yuan / ton at the weekend, a weekly decrease of 0.19%, a decrease of 7.53% compared with 30 days ago.

According to the acrylic acid analyst of business club, the current cost support is general, the market transaction is just needed, and the cautious wait-and-see mentality is strong. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stabilized in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream trends.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell this week. The average price of domestic PVC was 6498.57 yuan / ton last Friday, and 6368.57 yuan / ton this Friday. The price fell by 2% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic spot market of PVC fell violently. On the whole, the price fell mainly. With the improvement of the futures market on Wednesday, the confidence of the spot market rose, and the price rose slightly on Wednesday. At present, the PVC market demand maintains the previous level. Downstream enterprises and traders are more wait-and-see, inquiry is OK, spot transactions are general, downstream procurement is cautious, and orders are mainly received on demand. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone is mostly around 6200-6650 yuan / ton.

In terms of international crude oil, the price of international crude oil futures fell on July 21. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $96.35 / barrel, down $3.53 or 3.5%; The settlement price of the main contract of lunt crude oil futures was $103.86 / barrel, down $3.06 or 2.9%. Oil prices continued to fall on Thursday, mainly due to the increase in gasoline inventories in the United States. In addition, at the macro level, the European Central Bank raised interest rates, causing concerns about falling demand.

In terms of calcium carbide, the average price of calcium carbide last Friday was 3833.33 yuan / ton, and this Friday was 3816.67 yuan / ton. The price fell by 0.43% during the week. The factory prices of calcium carbide manufacturers were mostly stable this week, and the prices of some enterprises fell. The price of blue carbon in the upstream fell slightly, the cost support weakened, the PVC market in the downstream fell slightly, and the demand for calcium carbide weakened.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

PVC analysts of business agency believe that the spot price of PVC fell violently this week. At present, the demand of PVC spot market is general. Downstream mining is more wait-and-see, mainly receiving orders on demand, and the transaction atmosphere is general. Futures prices rose today and confidence in the spot market recovered. It is expected that the PVC market will run steadily and well in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 21, the market price of acrylonitrile bulk water was 9900 yuan / ton, falling below the 10000 yuan mark, down 8.84% from 10860 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, the supply side of the domestic acrylonitrile industry is still loose. On the other hand, downstream construction continues to decline, market transactions are deadlocked, and traders sell inventory at low prices. As of July 21, the acrylonitrile market offer in East China was between 9300 and 10500 yuan / ton.

Although the price of raw propylene fell slightly, the cost support is still weak. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of July 21, the domestic propylene price was 7414 yuan / ton, down 3.46% from 7680 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

At present, the downstream ABS operation continues to decline to less than 80%, and the acrylic fiber operation drops to about 70%. The weak demand side has no support for acrylonitrile. The acrylonitrile production capacity has reached 1.04 million tons since August 2021, and the supply side has remained loose.

Aftermarket forecast: acrylonitrile analysts at business club believe that the current oversupply fundamentals drag down the acrylonitrile market, which is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to fluctuate and decline in the later period.