This week (10.16-10.23), the market for chloroform fell. According to data from Business Society, as of October 23, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.10% from last Monday’s 3050 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have slightly decreased, while the cost center of trichloromethane has decreased; Downstream construction is temporarily stable, with on-demand inquiries for trichloromethane. Market transactions are flat, and trichloromethane enterprises have accumulated a small inventory, resulting in a slight decrease in factory prices.

In the recent period (10.16-10.23), the domestic methane chloride production has slightly decreased compared to the previous period. Some low load operating devices in the previous period have increased their load, and some enterprises have shut down for maintenance. The overall production rate is around 7.3%.

In the recent period (10.16-10.23), the prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have weakened, and the cost center of trichloromethane has decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 23, the spot price of methanol was 2435 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.99% from last Monday’s 2510 yuan/ton. The price of raw material liquid chlorine has decreased, and as of the 23rd, the acceptance price of tank trucks was 300 yuan/ton, which is lower than last Monday’s 400 yuan/ton.

The overall operation of refrigerant R22 is stable, and in the short term, there are more inquiries on demand for trichloromethane. Support for trichloromethane has slightly weakened, and the total production quota of R22 has been reduced by 19% to 181800 tons in 2023. In the medium to long term, overall support for trichloromethane demand has weakened.

Analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data believe that both cost and demand support will weaken slightly in the short term, and it is expected that the trichloromethane market will fluctuate and consolidate.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of 50% potassium sulfate at the beginning of this week was 3433 yuan/ton, while the price of 50% potassium sulfate at the end of this week was 3416 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49%.

The domestic potassium sulfate market price continues to decline, and the price decline in the northern market is significant, basically forming a state of high at both ends and low in the middle. The production rate of processing type Mannheim potassium sulfate manufacturers is relatively high. Currently, the factory price of 52% Mannheim potassium sulfate powder is between 3200-3600 yuan/ton. Driven by agricultural demand, the potassium sulfate market price in the southern market is significantly higher than that in the northern market, and actual transactions are mainly negotiated based on a single order.

The autumn market has ended, and the winter storage market has started slightly slowly. In the early stage of the market, there was basically no obvious purchasing intention, and the downstream factory equipment operating rate was relatively low. With the rebound trend of raw material prices, the mentality of market participants has slightly changed, and the enthusiasm for inquiries has increased compared to the previous period.

Prediction: With the continuous concentration of supply and the release of positive news, market inquiries have improved, and it is expected that the domestic potassium fertilizer market prices will mainly fluctuate and tend to be strong in the short term.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China was 2966.67 yuan/ton, and the weekend price fell by 24.89% year-on-year. On October 15th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 77.73, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 63.37% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 40.08% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average.

The upstream blue charcoal market has stabilized at a high level, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly declined. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal intermediate is around 1360-1430 yuan/ton, with high prices consolidating and average cost support. The PVC market price slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5930.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5842.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.48%. Weekend prices fell by 7.00% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide has weakened. The downstream PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate and decline in the aftermarket

In late October, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The price of raw material blue charcoal has stabilized at a high level, with average cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. It is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall in a narrow range in late October, with consolidation being the main trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly decreased this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream domestic market for neopentyl glycol dropped from 10475.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10400.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.72%, and the weekend price increased by 2.97% year-on-year. On October 15th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 50.12, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 51.63% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 16.42% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol slightly decreased.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price slightly decreased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market dropped from 9333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8966.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.93%, and the weekend price increased by 43.09% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a negative impact on the price of new pentanediol.

3、 Future prospects

In late October, the trend of the new pentanediol market may fluctuate slightly and decline mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

According to data monitored by Business Society, domestic carbon black has been operating steadily at a high level this week. On October 13th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 11400 yuan/ton

Cost side: The coal tar market price has slightly increased this week, with high level consolidation and operation being the main focus. Downstream enterprises have a good atmosphere of restocking after holidays, and there is a strong atmosphere of speculation on the market. The supply of coal tar market is relatively tight. As of now, the domestic price of coal tar market is 5140 yuan/ton. Currently, upstream and downstream enterprises have strong quotations, providing strong support for carbon black cost side.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and currently the overall inventory of the carbon black industry is not high, resulting in a tight overall supply.

In terms of terminals, downstream enterprises have a relatively high level of operation, and tire shipments are relatively smooth. In terms of demand, supported by strong export orders, the tire industry has been operating at a high level recently. The strong demand in the tire industry has provided strong support for the upward trend of carbon black, and the demand side is driven by an atmosphere of buying up and not buying down. The entry into the market for purchasing is relatively positive, and the overall trading atmosphere is acceptable.

Overall, there are many positive factors in the current market, and it is expected that the short-term carbon black market will maintain a high level of operation, with a stronger consolidation operation. The future trend will focus on downstream demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market fluctuated and declined in September. From September 1st to 28th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price dropped from 17516 yuan/ton to 16500 yuan/ton, with a 5.8% decrease in price during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 0.86%.

From late August to early September, some manufacturers’ prices were on the high side, but the market continued to experience high transmission barriers. The overall follow-up ability of the downstream market is weak, and the buying sentiment is relatively average. Traders are gradually lowering their prices to adapt to the market. In mid month, some sources of goods gradually filled in, while the demand side consumption capacity was slightly average, resulting in a slow decline in aggregated MDI prices. In the second half of the month, the market demand side follow-up was relatively average, and the price boost was relatively limited. Downstream demand was mainly concentrated, and traders remained in a market oriented state, patiently waiting for the demand side to follow up.

On the supply side, the domestic aggregate MDI production in September (as of the 27th) was 207200 tons, an increase of 31.2% compared to the previous month. 4. The MDI integration of Wanhua Chemical Yantai Industrial Park (mainly including 1.1 million tons/year of MDI and 300000 tons/year of TDI), petrochemical integration (mainly including 750000 tons/year of PDH and 760000 tons/year of PO/MTBE24/year), and related coordination devices began to be shut down for maintenance on August 15, 2023. As of September 27, the shutdown maintenance of the above-mentioned equipment has been completed and normal production has resumed. The overall supply has been supplemented. The supply side is influenced by bearish factors.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market remained at a high level in September. In September, both pure benzene and styrene were in low inventory, coupled with an increase in terminal orders for gold, silver, and ten, as well as a demand for dual stocking in October. The market experienced a large-scale increase in the first half of September, and the demand for short orders to replenish during the increase further drove the rise of pure benzene, with prices hitting 9000 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Supported by the cost side in September, aniline first rose and then stabilized. Some factories have maintenance plans, with double section pre stocking and active downstream receiving. The short-term aggregation of MDI is influenced by favorable factors on the cost side.

On the demand side, as prices rise, the ability to follow up on the demand side is relatively limited. But as October approaches, there is a willingness to reserve some of the demand orders before the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, and there is a willingness to follow up with some in the market in the near future. Downstream of MDI, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of refrigerators from January to August 2023 was 65.11 million units, an increase of 17.4% year-on-year; The production of automobiles reached 17.987 million units, an increase of 3.52% year-on-year. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.

In the future market forecast, with high cost support, the supply side benefits are gradually disappearing, and downstream demand is average. MDI analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly weak and organized.

Since the overall increase in the epoxy resin market supported by raw materials in August, major enterprises have raised prices multiple times under cost pressure, and entered a state of continuous cost support in September, where the overall situation showed a first rise followed by a high adjustment. As of August 28, the liquid epoxy resin market in East China had been delivered at 14900-15400 yuan/ton of purified water, and the solid epoxy resin market in Mount Huangshan had been negotiated to be delivered at 14700-15200 yuan/ton in cash.

In September, the domestic bisphenol A market continued its strong rise in August, with market prices exceeding 12000 yuan/ton. In the middle to early ten days, the main focus of the phenol/acetone market in the upstream of the industrial chain was upward, with high support. In addition, the shortage of spot resources in the supply side market and the shortage of inventory in factories led to continuous increases in listing prices. However, in the last week at the end of the month, due to the negative impact on the cost side, bisphenol A turned around and fell significantly to around 11300-11550 yuan/ton. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the bisphenol A market rose by 5.54% in September, with an amplitude of 10.5%, showing an overall trend of rising before falling.

The market price of epichlorohydrin slightly increased in September. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material glycerol was mainly stable, while the price of raw material propylene fluctuated slightly, with some support for cost. The industry’s capacity utilization rate was below 50%, and some enterprises had no inventory pressure. Downstream inquiries into the market increased, driving the steady increase in enterprise quotations. In the second half of the month, the price of raw material glycerol fell, while the price of raw material propylene declined narrowly. Cost support was weak, and supply side support remained. After downstream restocking, small orders mainly needed to be priced and followed up. As the holiday approached, market trading slowed down, and the focus of negotiations was mainly on stability.

From the perspective of the business community, the epoxy resin market has undergone a wide adjustment, with the East China liquid resin market ranging from 14700 to 15300 yuan/ton, mainly due to changes in dual raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, at the beginning of the week, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7610.00 yuan/ton. On the weekend, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7590.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26%. The current price has increased by 6.60% month on month, and the current price has decreased by 18.61% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

Potassium carbonate prices have fallen this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has fluctuated slightly in the past month, and this week the market continues to decline slightly. The market price of potassium chloride on the cost side has stabilized. Downstream demand is poor, transactions in the potassium carbonate market are light, potassium carbonate inventory is high, and the market continues to decline. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 7300-7700 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated slightly: on September 22, the distribution price of potassium chloride by Zibo Dehe Chemical Co., Ltd. was around 3100 yuan/ton. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have increased, and the market atmosphere is good. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased, with primary demand for procurement. Analysts from the Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.

Recently, the domestic supply of potassium chloride has been relatively concentrated, and the market is relatively stable. Downstream procurement remains in demand, and it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 21, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7350.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68% compared to Monday’s price.

This week, the melamine market remained stable and slightly weak. Recently, the price of raw material urea has slightly increased, with some companies resuming production and increasing market supply. However, downstream inquiries have a moderate enthusiasm, mainly focusing on just in demand procurement. The market trading atmosphere is flat, and the mentality of operators is insufficient. Some holders have lowered prices to attract orders. The focus of negotiations in the melamine market is stable, but weak.

Upstream urea: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of urea on September 20th was 2641.67, a decrease of 0.75% compared to September 1st (2661.67), which still provides support for the melamine market.

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that the current supply and demand support is weak, and the atmosphere for new orders in the market is weak. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be weak and stable, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

The domestic MIBK market has shown a broad upward trend. The tight spot supply situation is difficult to improve. Under the influence of multiple factory price increases, the market has continued to rise significantly. According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the market quoted 14433 yuan/ton on September 1 and 17367 yuan/ton on September 19, with a cumulative increase of 21% in September,

The MIBK market has risen, with mainstream negotiated prices in East China exceeding 17300 yuan/ton. The tight spot resource situation in the market is difficult to improve, and cargo holders are pushing up their offers again.

In terms of cost, the East China acetone market has been continuously rising, pushing it up to 7550 yuan/ton last week. On the 18th, the market eased and negotiations weakened. This was mainly due to the weakening of replenishment sentiment after a round of procurement in the early stage, and the profit-making space taken by intermediate traders, resulting in a significant daily decline of 250 yuan/ton in trading volume. The East China acetone market was negotiated at 7250 yuan/ton. For downstream MIBK, the sustained rise in acetone in the early stages still provides support.

From the perspective of the business community, the current industry operating rate is at 50%, with a slight increase in domestic supply but little impact. Currently, it is time to stock up before the National Day holiday, and the supply is relatively concentrated. Traders are pushing up their offers. Business Society predicts that there is still room for upward growth in the short-term MIBK market.