Recent trends in urea prices

Under the weak support of raw material anthracite and the temporary lack of favorable downstream demand, the urea market price in Shandong fluctuated narrowly this week. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of urea in Shandong increased from 2461.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2465 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.14%, and the weekend price decreased by 10.23% year-on-year.

Details of domestic urea prices this week

From the supply side perspective: In the early stage, urea maintenance manufacturers resumed production, resulting in an increase in daily urea production. The data shows that the daily urea production in China is about 160000 tons, with coal urea enterprises operating at a rate of about 85% and gas urea enterprises operating at a rate of about 40%. The mainstream urea manufacturers in Shandong saw a slight increase in factory prices during the week.

Details of the price of Yangquan anthracite coal this week

Variety/ January 15th/ January 21st/ Changes

Anthracite coal (washed lump)/ 960 yuan/ton/ 960 yuan/ton/ None

From the upstream market perspective, there were ups and downs in the urea upstream market this week: the price of liquefied natural gas plummeted by 8.32%, and the weekend price fell by 17.16% year-on-year. Affected by rainy and snowy weather in some regions of China, market circulation is restricted, and liquid factory shipments are under pressure, leading to a continued decrease in liquid prices. The price of liquid ammonia increased by 2.93%, and the weekend price fell by 22.42% year-on-year. However, the prices of anthracite coal have remained low and have stabilized. Over the weekend, the price of Yangquan anthracite coal (washed lump) was 960 yuan/ton, indicating a continued weak trend in the coal market in the short term. Overall, there has been a significant drop in upstream raw material prices, which lacks support for urea prices.

From the perspective of downstream demand: agricultural demand is at the end of the off-season, while industrial demand follows the market. Composite fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises are operating at a low level, and some industries are gradually shutting down for holidays, with a focus on essential procurement. This week, the downstream price of melamine in urea has stabilized at a high level, with a price of 7450 yuan/ton. From the perspective of exports: Although there are still bids overseas, the impact of urea export policies on the domestic market is not significant.

Looking ahead, the urea market in Shandong may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in late January. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has significantly declined, and the cost support for urea is insufficient. Downstream industrial demand is mainly in demand, while agricultural demand has not yet recovered. In the second half of the year, gas companies will start construction one after another, and it is expected that Nissan will recover to some extent. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline.

The market price of melamine remained stable this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 19th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7450.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from Monday’s price.

Cost side: According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market in Shengyi Society, the reference price of urea on January 18th was 2465.00, a decrease of 0.8% compared to January 1st (2485.00). Recently, the market situation of raw material urea has narrowed, and the cost side is generally supported by the melamine market.

Supply and demand side: Some enterprises on the supply side stopped maintenance of their equipment, and downstream hoarding intentions were average at the beginning of the week. Some manufacturers lowered prices to attract orders, creating a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. With the gradual follow-up of downstream stocking, the market atmosphere has improved, and dealers can flexibly quote according to their own situation, with a stable market trend as the main focus.

Business Society’s melamine analyst believes that the current cost support is limited, and downstream pre holiday orderly stocking is expected. In the short term, the melamine market is expected to stabilize and operate, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

441 # Overview of Silicon Price Trends

This week, the price of # 441 metallic silicon remained strong and upward. As of January 12th, the average price of metallic silicon in the domestic market was 15560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38% compared to the previous week. In recent times, silicon metal production has decreased and silicon factories have started to resume production. At the same time, downstream short-term rigid demand procurement has been basically completed, and the market spot sentiment has cooled down, so spot prices have weakened and declined.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 12th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15500~15600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 15500~15600 yuan/ton, with an average of 15550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 15200-15400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15300 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 15200~15300 yuan/ton, with an average of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 16100~16200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16150 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of January 12th, the number of furnaces opened this week was 301, an increase of 3 compared to last week. Among them, Yunnan and Fujian each increased by 2 units, Guizhou and Sichuan each decreased by 1 unit, Yunnan and Hunan each decreased by 2 units, and Chongqing increased by 1 unit. Recently, some silicon factories on the supply side have started resuming production, and some silicon factories in Chongqing and Yunnan have started production to deliver orders. However, according to the data as of the 11th, the number of weekly furnaces has increased.

In terms of inventory:

As of January 12th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached a total of 354000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse was 116000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared to the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse was 238000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), an increase of 2000 tons compared to the previous week.

In terms of demand:

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market remained stable, and the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a current model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 52000 to 58000 yuan/ton. The preliminary maintenance equipment has now resumed operation, and with the release of new production capacity, the domestic supply has significantly increased. Downstream installed capacity demand is decreasing, and the demand for silicon materials in the market has slowed down recently. We need to continue to follow up, but currently the price decline space is gradually narrowing, and it may stabilize in the later stage, but we have not seen any signs of rebound

The prices of organic silicon and aluminum alloy have slightly increased. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price is referenced around 13940 yuan/ton, and the current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20150 yuan/ton. The aluminum alloy market is stable, with aluminum alloy factories making small-scale purchases and placing appropriate inquiries for replenishment, resulting in an overall increase in demand.

Future Market Forecast

In summary, on the supply side, news of some silicon factories resuming production this week has emerged, while the market’s spot sentiment has cooled down and traders have loosened their willingness to raise prices; On the demand side, downstream replenishment is basically coming to an end, so both spot and market prices of silicon have begun to decline. The social inventory has slightly increased, and the overall inventory pressure is relatively high. At present, maintenance enterprises in Xinjiang have not significantly resumed production, and cost support still exists. It is expected that industrial silicon will operate in a weak and volatile manner in the short term next week. We will continue to pay attention to supply side disturbances and downstream replenishment progress after the year.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China has slightly increased this week. On the 15th, the market reported around 13340 yuan/ton, and on the 8th, it reported around 13220 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.91%. The prices of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid have declined, the cost of polyacrylamide has fallen, and enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally. The market supply is abundant, downstream demand is weak, and commodity circulation is slow. The mainstream market trend of polyacrylamide is mainly consolidating.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market has been declining this week, with the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market at 9387 yuan/ton as of January 15th. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile from tanks in the market is between 9200 to 9600 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials has slightly increased, and the cost supports acrylonitrile; The operating rate of major downstream ABS polymerization enterprises has been lowered to below 68%, and the production of enterprises has remained stable; The supply of acrylonitrile units is loose, and the impact of supply and demand is bearish, resulting in a downward trend in the market.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the overall acrylic acid market has slightly declined this week. As of January 15th, the average quoted price for acrylic acid in the East China region is 6150 yuan/ton. At present, the cost support is still acceptable, and downstream companies need to follow up. The market atmosphere is light.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas price trend continued to weaken this week. At present, there is insufficient market demand and the willingness of downstream restocking is not strong. The bidding price for raw gas has been lowered, weakening cost support. It is expected that domestic liquefied natural gas prices will continue to decline weakly in the short term.

Market forecast: In the near future, the overall price of raw materials will fall, the fuel market will fall, and the cost of polyacrylamide will decline. On the supply side, enterprises in the main production areas have normal production and sufficient market supply; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, with little change in market transactions. It is expected that domestic polyacrylamide sorting will be the main focus in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic yellow phosphorus market is on the rise. The average price of yellow phosphorus on Monday was 22962.67 yuan/ton, and this Friday’s average price was 23862.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.92%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic yellow phosphorus market has been on the rise, and the overall market trading situation is relatively active. The market is driving steadily, with traders and downstream buyers showing good enthusiasm, and yellow phosphorus manufacturers collectively increasing prices. The focus of new transactions has shifted upwards. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 23800-24000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, according to data monitoring from Business Society, the domestic phosphate ore market has remained stable this week, with an average price of 1056 yuan/ton. At present, the trading atmosphere in the domestic phosphate ore market is mild, and the mentality of the industry is good. Some downstream companies prepare goods before the new year and purchase according to the quantity. According to the phosphate ore data analyst of Business Society, the domestic phosphate ore market is mainly stable in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the influence of factors such as demand and downstream shipment situation.

In terms of coke, according to the analysis of the commodity market by Business Society, the atmosphere in the coke market was weak this week. The average price of coke on Monday was 2328.33 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 2226.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.37%. The coke market in Shandong port is operating weakly, with spot market prices slightly decreasing. The quasi first level outbound price at the port is around 2300 yuan/ton, and the first level outbound price is 2400 yuan/ton. The port market is operating weakly, with inventory at the two ports slightly declining. The enthusiasm of traders in the spot market to gather at the port is weak, and market trading is slightly sluggish, with actual transactions being relatively low.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of phosphoric acid has decreased this week. The average price of phosphoric acid on Monday was 6510 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 6360 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 2.3%. The phosphoric acid data analyst from Business Society predicts that the phosphoric acid market is weak, with average downstream demand and weak consolidation in the market.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the upstream phosphate ore market is currently stable, the overall coke market is weak, and cost support is average. The downstream has a good enthusiasm for purchasing yellow phosphorus, and the on-site trading atmosphere is active. It is expected that in the short term, the yellow phosphorus market will tend to strengthen and consolidate, with a single discussion.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, nickel prices have fluctuated and fallen this week. As of January 5th, the spot nickel quotation was 126000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.1% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 45.17%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have fallen by 10% and risen by 2% in the past 12 weeks, with nickel prices still showing a main decline in recent times.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

On a macro level, following the announcement of the December interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve, market focus has shifted to the core US November PCE data released this Friday. The market is waiting for important data to be released in order to obtain new guidance, as the US dollar fluctuates.

In terms of supply, some enterprises have reduced production at a loss. In November, the national refined nickel production was 23000 tons, a decrease of 3.9% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 54.45%. The production of major overseas nickel companies in the first three quarters decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, mostly due to unexpected disturbances, with good profits and weak willingness to actively reduce production.

In terms of demand: Alloy is the main downstream of pure nickel, with better demand for military and ship alloys, and inferior demand for civilian alloys. The demand for electroplating is relatively stable. Stainless steel inventory returned to a neutral level, and steel mills slightly resumed production in December. New energy basically does not require pure nickel. Last week, nickel prices fell significantly, and some downstream restocking during the Spring Festival was advanced.

In summary, nickel prices have continued to weaken, and downstream purchasing and stocking sentiment has increased. Some downstream stocking for the Spring Festival has been advanced, and social inventory has been depleted within the week; Production remains high and inventory continues to accumulate. Overall, the fundamentals continue to be weak with no new bearish sentiment, but there is also a lack of bullish sentiment. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to operate weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market on January 1st was 833 yuan/ton, and on January 7th, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 796 yuan/ton. This week, the price of domestic ammonium sulfate market decreased by 4.40%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has fallen. Foreign orders are relatively low, domestic market demand is poor, downstream delivery capacity is weakened, and market bearish sentiment is strong. As of January 7th, the mainstream market price for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 750-800 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 785-870 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Shengyishe Ammonium Sulfate believe that the recent trend in ammonium sulfate prices is weak. The supply side is relatively abundant, while the demand side takes less goods. The short-term market situation is currently not favorable, and it is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will be weak and mainly consolidating in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21600.00 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the beginning of the month and increased by 17.82% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 27666.67 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of the month and an increase of 12.93% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

After New Year’s Day, the domestic price of trichloromethane remained weak, falling by 2.58% during the week. The price of hydrofluoric acid continued to be weak, falling by 2.36% during the week. The continuous decrease in raw material costs did not suppress the R22 market price. Supported by the low inventory of enterprises with low quotas, the domestic R22 market price continued to remain strong this week.

This week, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices saw a slight decline, with a 2.36% drop within the week. The decrease in raw material costs did not suppress the domestic R134a price. Supported by low inventory of enterprises with quota bottoming out, the domestic R134a price continued to remain strong this week.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, downstream demand is stable, and the attitude of enterprises to support prices remains unchanged. In the short term, the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will continue to remain strong.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8100 yuan/ton on December 1st, and the average price on December 29th was 8230 yuan/ton, with a 1.6% increase in quotation during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9137 yuan/ton on December 1st, and the average price on December 29th was 9082 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.60 during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8550 yuan/ton on December 1st, and the average price on December 29th was 8500 yuan/ton, with a 0.58% decrease in quotation during this period.

In December, the polyethylene market experienced ups and downs, with LLDPE showing a slightly sustained strong trend, while LDPE and HDPE showed a slight decline. The tense geopolitical situation, expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and rising international oil prices have to some extent supported the polyethylene market on the cost side. There are not many maintenance devices in the enterprise, and short maintenance is the main focus, with sufficient supply of polyethylene. The operating rate of downstream products is showing a downward trend, with a decrease in agricultural film operating rate and a slight increase in packaging film operating rate, mainly driven by holiday demand. Overall, downstream demand is weak, and procurement is relatively cautious. Traders adjust their offers and have a strong willingness to sell at a discounted price.

On December 29th, the opening price of the polyethylene l2405 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 8280 yuan, and the closing price was 8280 yuan, a decrease of 23 yuan. The highest price was 8299 yuan, and the lowest was 8255 yuan, a decrease of 0.28%. The trend of futures in December was relatively strong, driving up the spot price of polyethylene.

Linear products are driven by the strength of futures, with spot prices slowly and slightly rising, and the market trends of high-pressure and low-pressure products are weak; The demand for greenhouse film has decreased, and the demand for plastic film is slowly following up. The Spring Festival plastic film is gradually starting, and overall, the market demand in January is weak; Adequate supply side; It is expected that polyethylene will mainly fluctuate weakly, with limited upward space.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of cryolite in Henan region remained stable this week. On December 29th, the average market price in Henan region was 7700 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price of 7700 yuan/ton on December 25th, and a decrease of 0.32% compared to the beginning of the month.

This week, the ice crystal market continued to remain stable, with a slight decrease in upstream product prices and a decrease in ice crystal costs. However, the spot supply of raw materials is tight, and prices are still at a relatively high level. There is still cost support for ice crystal enterprises, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak. Purchasing is mainly based on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is average. The ice crystal market is watching and operating. As of December 29th, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The ex factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7000 and 8700 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market has slightly decreased, with an average market price of 3531.25 yuan/ton on December 26th, a decrease of 0.35% compared to the price of 3543.75 yuan/ton on December 25th. The tight exploitation of upstream mines and the shortage of raw materials have restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises, and some manufacturers have limited production. However, towards the end of the year, some small factories have engaged in low-priced inventory clearance behavior, resulting in poor fluorite sales and poor downstream procurement. On site prices have slightly decreased, weakening support for cryolite.

Market forecast: Ice crystal raw materials are tight, and cost pressure on ice crystal enterprises still exists. Ice crystal manufacturers mainly raise prices, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak, and they are more resistant to high priced ice crystal. However, at the same time, upstream prices are lowered, and downstream bearish sentiment is more. The downward momentum of ice crystal prices is increased, and it is expected that the ice crystal market will continue to decline, with slight price fluctuations. In the future, attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.