According to the bulk list data from Business Society, the toluene market rose in March. On March 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 7210 yuan/ton, and on March 31st, the benchmark price was 7350 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.94%. Affected by the fluctuation and rise in international crude oil prices, the cost of toluene continues to support; After the holiday, the profit margin for downstream disproportionation has increased, supporting the demand for toluene; The decrease in port inventory has supported the upward trend of toluene.

High international crude oil and external market prices provide support for toluene

In March, supply risks increased due to the geopolitical situation, and international crude oil prices rose, providing stronger support for the cost of toluene. As of March 28th, WTI05 contract settlement is $83.17 per barrel; Brent 06 contract settlement is $87.00 per barrel. Affected by the high crude oil prices, the price of toluene in Asia gradually rose in March, providing support for the domestic toluene market. As of March 28, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price in April was between 925-927 US dollars per ton.

Relative high-level toluene demand support for xylene production

In March, international crude oil and PX prices remained high, providing support for toluene prices. As of March 29th, the closing prices in the Asian region were 1026-1028 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1051-1053 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, with an overall operating rate of nearly 80% for xylene plants in the Asian region. The supply-demand contradiction of PX supply in the Asian region has become apparent, and the domestic xylene market prices have fluctuated narrowly.

Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending demand and weak support for toluene

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for toluene mixed blending is weak. As of the end of March, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 7.2.

TDI demand is sluggish, and the low starting point has weak support for toluene

In March, TDI market demand was weak, and prices sharply declined. At the beginning of the month, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, with a small amount of essential purchases in the market, and the actual trading atmosphere was light; The news of discounted supply from large factories in the north in mid to late March was released, and the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. The TDI weekly guidance price of Shanghai’s large factories was significantly reduced. In addition, the downstream was affected by the sentiment of buying up rather than buying down, and the market transaction center continued to shift downwards.

The decrease in port inventory has reduced the resistance to the upward movement of Jia Ben

Domestic production of toluene has slightly increased, and single port inventory has decreased, reducing overall resistance to the upward movement of toluene. As of March 28th, the domestic production of toluene has slightly increased to around 75%; As of March 28th, the inventory of toluene in East China was 67000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China was 13000 tons, a decrease of around 40000 tons from the end of February.

Market forecast: According to toluene analysts from Business Society, the international crude oil market is currently operating at a high level, and there is still support for the cost of toluene; Secondly, the recovery of demand in some downstream industries is slow, and the support for rigid demand is weak; Finally, the inventory of toluene at the port decreased and the plan for equipment maintenance led to an expected continued decline in the supply of toluene. It is expected that the toluene market will continue to rise in the future.

Price trend

In March, the domestic ABS market continued to maintain a strong trend, with spot prices of various brands gradually increasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 27th, the average price of ABS sample products was 12162.50 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+3.18% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: This month, the domestic ABS industry has taken on the pattern of load reduction and adjustment in the early stage, and the operating rate has decreased within the month. During the inspection of the PetroChina Jieyang plant, the industry plant load decreased from around 63% at the beginning of the month to around 56% at the end of the month. The low load of ABS aggregation enterprises affects the tight supply pattern in the market. The monthly output and inventory of production enterprises have both decreased, and overall, the supply side’s support for spot goods is still acceptable.

In terms of raw materials, the overall trend of ABS upstream three materials in March increased, with an increase in the acrylonitrile market. The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and falls at the end of the month, with a moderate impact on the cost of acrylonitrile; The supply of acrylonitrile units will be tightened within the month, but downstream products will only maintain the necessary support for acrylonitrile; Overall, the supply and demand of acrylonitrile market at the end of the month are weak, and the market may become stagnant and consolidation in the near future.

The domestic butadiene market saw a stepwise increase in March. The continued rise in external prices has boosted market sentiment, but in the middle and late stages, most downstream industries experienced inverted profits, with the main downstream industries experiencing a gradual decline in operating load and a slightly weaker demand side dragging down. At the end of the month, the overall performance of the butadiene market transaction center slightly weakened, and it is expected that the market will enter a consolidation period in early April.

The market price of styrene remained strong after an increase in March. The price of raw material pure benzene rose in the first half of the month due to the boost of crude oil, and the positive news gradually faded in the second half. The cost support for styrene shifted from strong to flat. The supply pattern of goods remained tight throughout the month, and on-site inventory continued to decline. In the second half of the month, downstream enterprises are expected to follow up and weaken, and the styrene market is expected to continue to consolidate in the short term.

In terms of demand: The resumption of work at the main ABS terminals in March is good, and the enthusiasm of downstream factories to stock up has increased in mid month. Among them, the increase in production scheduling in the home appliance industry is particularly significant, and the overall load of factories on the demand side has increased, leading to an increase in demand purchases. But as ABS prices rise, buyers’ resistance to high-end sources of goods gradually becomes apparent. At the end of the month, traders actively sold their goods, resulting in loose offers and average market support from the demand side.

Future Market Forecast

In March, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS was still good, but the cost side of ABS remained relatively strong. The operation of petrochemical plants is gradually decreasing, and the supply pressure is not obvious. Due to the continuous increase in ABS prices during the month, some buyers have entered the market, and the demand side’s support for spot goods has turned from strong to flat. At the end of the month, traders engaged in price reduction and order taking operations. Currently, the long and short positions of ABS complement each other, and the ABS market may remain strong in early April due to the impact of low supply.

Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the sulfur price trend in East China has slightly increased this week. On March 24th, the sulfur price was 1046.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.64% compared to the sulfur price of 1040.00 yuan/ton on March 18th, and a month on month increase of 1.95%.

This week, the sulfur market has seen an upward trend. Some refineries in Shandong region have undergone maintenance and reduced loads, resulting in low inventory levels among manufacturers and a tight supply of goods in the market. Downstream suppliers have shown good enthusiasm for entering the market and purchasing, with smooth enterprise shipments and slight price increases. As of the 22nd, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is around 980-1100 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 980-1110 yuan/ton.

Downstream market trends in the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market has risen strongly, with an average domestic sulfuric acid price of 291.25 yuan/ton on March 24th, an increase of 9.39% compared to the price of 266.25 yuan/ton on March 18th. The production of on-site enterprises is stable, and downstream demand is relatively stable. In some areas, downstream procurement is active, and the shipment of enterprises is smooth. The market transaction center has increased. At the same time, on-site equipment has maintenance plans, and the expected supply in the future is reduced, which is to some extent favorable for the atmosphere of the sulfuric acid market. The price of sulfuric acid has risen.

The downstream market for ammonium phosphate remained stable, with an average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate at 3130.00 yuan/ton on March 24th, unchanged from the price of 3130.00 yuan/ton on March 18th. Downstream consumption of monoammonium phosphate is relatively weak, and the procurement of raw materials is average. The follow-up of new market orders is limited, and the manufacturer’s quotation runs smoothly with the support of pending orders.

Future Market Forecast

The sulfur analyst from Business Society believes that the current sulfur market supply continues to improve, with downstream product prices rising and procurement enthusiasm being good, which has a positive impact on the market trading atmosphere. It is expected that the sulfur market will rise in the future, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 22, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6600 yuan/ton, which is 6580 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on March 18. This week, the domestic price of thermal phosphoric acid increased by 0.30%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 22, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6800 yuan/ton, which is 6733 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on March 18. This week, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price increased by 0.99%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic phosphoric acid market prices have risen this week. The prices of raw materials such as yellow phosphorus and phosphate ore have risen, providing support on the cost side. This week, the demand for thermal phosphoric acid in the market was sluggish, and downstream purchases were made on demand, resulting in limited market trading. This week, the demand for wet process phosphoric acid in the market has increased, and the trading atmosphere is good. Manufacturers have continuously raised their quotations.

As of March 22, the market price for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6600 yuan/ton, and the market price for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6500-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6000-7800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The focus of the yellow phosphorus market has slightly shifted upwards this week. The trading situation of yellow phosphorus on the market is average. Driving on site is relatively stable. Manufacturers are mainly holding up prices, while the yellow phosphorus market has rebounded and stopped falling. Downstream procurement is cautious, while upstream and downstream are relatively stagnant, with a focus on wait-and-see. Overall, the market situation for yellow phosphorus is average. As of now, the market price for yellow phosphorus is around 22700-23300 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. This week, the phosphate ore market has shown a fluctuating trend of ups and downs. At the beginning of the week, the overall price of phosphate ore in the Yunnan region of China increased, with some mining companies that had previously quoted lower prices raising the price of 30 grade phosphate ore by about 20 yuan/ton. Later, during the mid week period, some mining companies in Guizhou region also lowered the prices of mid to high end grade phosphate ore narrowly based on their own shipments, with a reduction of about 10-30 yuan per ton. The phosphate ore market in other regions mainly continues to consolidate and operate.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The phosphoric acid analyst from Business Society believes that the current trend in the phosphoric acid market is upward. The raw material market is strengthening, with good cost support. The demand for wet process phosphoric acid is good, while the demand for hot process phosphoric acid needs to be improved. It is expected that the short-term market price of phosphoric acid will continue to rise, and it is recommended to pay attention to changes in costs and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 21st, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent premium product in China, was 16066.67 yuan/ton. This week, PMMA prices were mainly narrow and strong, with a 2.55% increase compared to the same period last month, with an increase of around 400 yuan/ton. Currently, the upstream MMA prices are strong, and PMMA has some support on the cost side. In the first half of March, MMA prices continued to be strong, but in the second half of the month, prices slightly declined. Currently, the overall market demand for PMMA is still good, and the market is recovering, with manufacturers mainly operating at high prices.

2、 Market analysis

This week, PMMA prices have been the main trend, with a 2.55% increase compared to the same period last month and a 1.05% increase compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream market price is around 16000 yuan/ton. The operating rate of PMMA in March was around 64%, while the operating rate of upstream factory MMA was around 48%. The supply of PMMA in March was significantly lower than last month, with a decrease in on-site operating rate and supply side. In late February, Mitsubishi Chemical announced that it would stop the ACH process MMA production and acrylonitrile related production in the Hiroshima factory, and withdraw some business. The annual production capacity of MMA in the Hiroshima factory is 90000 tons, while Mitsubishi Chemical will continue to produce C4 in the Hiroshima factory. MMA monomers produced by the process will continue to be produced in the Okayama factory, acrylonitrile and sodium glycine will be produced in the Kanto factory, and acrylamide will be produced in the Kanto factory. At the same time, there are new reports from Rom Chemical that they will expand their production capacity of polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) at the world’s largest production base in Worms through the new factory to meet the steadily growing demand from the automotive industry. Currently, due to the drive of new energy vehicles, PMMA as one of the raw materials for automotive parts, demand is also further increasing, Drive manufacturers to expand and expand production.

In terms of cost: MMA prices remained mainly upward in the month of MMA3, while prices remained stable and fell in late March. Currently, factories have shown signs of offering prices, mainly through price support operations. The overall market negotiation focus is stable, with normal inventory consumption. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is still acceptable, and on-demand procurement is the main focus. The expected production of MMA in March is about 102000 tons, a decrease of about 2.2% compared to the previous month, and an increase of about 8.9% compared to the same period last year. Currently, the on-site spot supply is still acceptable.

In terms of cost, the acetone market showed a stable and weak trend in March, with prices rebounding and rising in late March. Currently, the mainstream price of acetone in the market is around 7250-7300 yuan/ton, and port inventories decreased at the beginning of the week. Traders have a strong mentality of supporting prices, and the focus of market negotiations is currently high. The transaction atmosphere is good. In April, several phenolic ketone companies reported maintenance news, with maintenance time from the end of March to the end of April, which is about one month. During the maintenance period, the market supply will be reduced, and downstream PMMA will have some positive support on the cost side.

In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand for PMMA is still acceptable, and the procurement atmosphere is positive. With the popularity of power vehicles, PMMA, as one of the raw materials for producing automotive parts, is widely used in projects such as car lights, windshields, and windows. Due to its high strength, toughness, and wear resistance, it can effectively improve the safety and comfort of cars. Since March, the demand for power vehicles has increased, and there has been a shortage of supply, leading to a surge in the price of PMMA.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that currently, the domestic supply of PMMA is limited, inventory pressure is not high, and the operating rate is relatively stable. Many manufacturers are mainly with a price support mentality, and downstream demand is constantly increasing. There is a slight shortage of upstream supply. Although some companies have started to expand production, it will take some time to officially release production capacity, and the cost side has a certain supporting effect. Therefore, it is expected that PMMA prices will maintain a narrow and strong trend in the short term.

From March 11 to March 18, 2024, the antimony ingot market in East China operated weakly, with prices dropping 0.55% to 91000 yuan/ton this week.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent trend of the antimony ingot market is relatively weak.

This week’s European strategic small metal antimony price situation (unit: USD/ton)

Variety/ March 11th/ March 18th/ Rise and fall

European small metal antimony/ 12850./12850/-

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has remained stable, with a price of $12850/ton as of March 18th, unchanged. Currently, the market is on the wait-and-see side.

Since the Spring Festival, the antimony ingot market has remained temporarily stable and stable, with a slight decline after January. In terms of supply, smelting enterprises generally resumed normal production after January, and the supply of antimony ingots remained basically unchanged compared to before the holiday. However, the mining side still maintains a tight pattern, which has affected the strong mentality of smelters to raise prices, and the market supply is slightly tight. In terms of demand, downstream industries such as antimony oxide have shown relatively stable trends in recent times. Some enterprises have plans to replenish their inventory after the holiday, but they still maintain their essential procurement. In the future, Business Society believes that the antimony ingot market is gradually returning to a normal trading atmosphere, and in the absence of significant changes in supply and demand, it will continue to maintain temporary stable operation in the near future.

The price trend of antimony oxide this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Variety/ March 11th/ March 18th/ Rise and fall

99.5% antimony trioxide/ 79500./79500/-

99.8% antimony trioxide/ 81500./81500/-

This week, the antimony oxide market remained temporarily stable, while the spot market remained weak after the Spring Festival. Downstream demand replenishment was maintained, and market prices were mainly affected by the stability of the antimony ingot market, with most remaining temporarily stable.

Industry data:

On March 17th, the base metal index was 1203 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.56% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 87.38% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On March 17th, the non-ferrous index was 1119 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.24% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 84.35% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 11th week of 2024 (3.11-3.15), there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were copper (3.86%), nickel (2.47%), and cobalt (2.25%). There are a total of 11 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are metal praseodymium (-2.03%), neodymium oxide (-1.42%), and metal silicon (-1.41%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.2%.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market for refined and hydrogenated naphtha has continued to rise this week. As of March 18th, the mainstream ex factory price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha in China was 8341.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from March 11th’s 8251.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 8200-8400 yuan/ton.

This week, the market for locally refined straight run naphtha continued to rise. As of March 18th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 8234.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.29% from March 11th’s 8129.00 yuan/ton price. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight run naphtha was around 8200 yuan/ton.

This week’s rise in international crude oil prices supported the naphtha market, with refineries actively pushing for gains. However, there was a lack of substantial positive news at the end, and market trading was mainly focused on the restructuring of local refineries. The market mentality was cautious.

Upstream: The international crude oil market fluctuated and rose this week, and the cycle began. The Federal Reserve issued hawkish signals, delaying interest rate cuts and suppressing market confidence; US crude oil inventories have risen for the sixth consecutive week, rising by 1.4 million barrels to 448.5 million barrels. Analysts expect an increase of 2.1 million barrels, putting pressure on crude oil prices. Supported by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East in the later stage; In addition, the expected reduction in production by oil producing countries is also a major factor supporting oil prices, leading to an increase in international oil prices.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of Business Society, the toluene market has slightly increased, with high levels of toluene port inventory continuing, and supply pressure still remaining; The mixed xylene market has slightly increased, while the mixed xylene port inventory has slightly decreased, and supply pressure remains; The price trend of PX is stable, and the domestic supply of xylene is stable. The domestic operating rate of PX is maintained at over 80%.

Market forecast: The international crude oil market is fluctuating at a high level, with cost support in the naphtha market; However, currently there is a lack of significant positive news for the local refining naphtha terminal. Downstream demand is cautious in chasing higher prices, with a focus on on-demand procurement. It is expected that the local refining naphtha market may consolidate at a high level in the near future.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the vitamin market has remained relatively stable this week, with some varieties slightly rising, and the overall market is operating relatively strong.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the vitamin C market has slightly increased this week, with mainstream quotes for feed grade vitamin C ranging from 24 to 26 yuan/kg. Boosted by news, the market atmosphere has improved, and some traders have raised their prices, resulting in more factory suspensions.

This week, the price of vitamin A has slightly increased. The mainstream price of feed grade vitamin A in the market is 85-87 yuan/kg, and the European market quote is 19-21 euros/kg. It is reported that BASF’s German factory plans to undergo maintenance for two months starting from the end of March. Market attention has increased, inquiries have been active, and traders have raised their prices.

This week, the price of vitamin E has slightly increased, and the current mainstream price in the VE market is between 66-70 yuan/ton. The European market quotation is 7-7.4 euros per kilogram. The increase in European quotations has boosted the domestic market. The factory has maintained a suspension of reporting, and traders are actively pushing for price increases, resulting in an improved transaction atmosphere.

Future Market Forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that some vitamin markets have improved, but lack real order support and slow demand follow-up. If the positive news in the future is exhausted and prices continue to rise, there will be greater resistance. In the future, close attention will be paid to the production, sales, and market trends of enterprises.

According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, on March 14th, the benchmark price of glycerol in Shengyishe was 4387.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.46% compared to the beginning of this month (4200.00 yuan/ton). At present, the reference price for industrial grade 99.5% glycerol in the domestic market is around 4300-4590/ton.

Raw material side: According to the monitoring system of Business Society, palm oil rose in the morning on March 14th. The opening price of Y2405 contract for palm oil is 7942 yuan/ton, with the latest quotation of 7976 yuan/ton, an increase of 122 yuan/ton, a maximum of 7982 yuan/ton, and a minimum of 7918 yuan/ton. Compared to the beginning of this month, it has increased by 5.08%.

The downstream epichlorohydrin market saw a decline in prices this week. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of March 14th, the benchmark price of epichlorohydrin in Shengyishe was 8075.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.92% compared to the beginning of this week (8150.00 yuan/ton). The market demand is light, and the purchasing sentiment is not positive.

Late stage forecast: According to the glycerol data analyst of Business Society, the domestic glycerol market demand is weak, and downstream rigid demand procurement is needed. It is expected that the market price of industrial grade 99.5% glycerol will operate steadily, with a reference price of about 4300-4590/ton. For more information, please pay attention to external news and market guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average price of stearic acid 1840 this week was around 8510 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton compared to before the Spring Festival, with a growth rate of 1.67%. The price of imported stearic acid in Indonesia ranges from 9500 yuan/ton to 8200 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side: In early March, the palm oil market fluctuated and rose by more than 1%, with an average palm oil market price of 7842 yuan/ton. The estimate for Malaysian palm oil production in the external market has been lowered, with bullish factors still present. There is still room for an upward trend in the palm oil market in the future. Overall, the cost is relatively strong in the face of spot support.

Demand side: The PVC spot market prices continued to rise this week. The average market price of PVC is 5632 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 0.42%. This week, the load rate of the PVC industry is higher than 8 floors, with an increase in PVC export orders. This week, the load rate of steel tire enterprises in the industry continued to increase, with a load rate of more than 7.8 floors in the semi steel tire industry and less than 7 floors in the full steel tire industry.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that the upward trend in the upstream palm oil market this week has provided strong support for the cost side. The downstream PVC operating rate is at a high level, and the terminal steel tire industry operating rate has also increased, which is a favorable factor for the stearic acid market. Overall, the market for stearic acid is gradually heating up, and it is expected that the stearic acid market will operate steadily and strongly in the short term.