According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 15, 2022, the reference average ex factory price of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate was 6700 yuan/ton, which was 317 yuan/ton higher than that of September 11, 2022 (6383 yuan/ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the domestic dimethyl carbonate market ushered in a rising operation after the Mid Autumn Festival (9.12-9.15). On the first day after the festival, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate in the market was good. Factory offers were mostly firm, with minor upward adjustments. The adjustment range was around 200 yuan/ton. The cost of dimethyl carbonate was supported by the stable high level of raw materials. Later, some factories in Shandong and Anhui also adjusted their prices upward, The overall market of dimethyl carbonate is converging towards the high-end. As of September 15, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 6500-6900 yuan/ton. At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate in the market is mild, and the actual order is mainly negotiated.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the recent (9.7-9.13) propylene oxide market has risen steadily. Recently, the market price of raw propylene has risen slightly, and the cost has some support. Before the festival, the on-site devices are mainly stable, the supply is tight, the factory shipments are smooth, the demand side follows up generally, the market is relatively strong before the festival, the market returns after the festival, the market shipments are stable, and the wait-and-see attitude is mainstream. On the 13th, the mainstream quotation of the propylene oxide market in Shandong was around 10400-10500 yuan/ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, the dimethyl carbonate industry is in a good mood, and the factory quotation continues to be strong. The dimethyl carbonate data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will continue to operate mainly in a stable, medium and strong way, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the market of dichloromethane rose sharply this week (9.2-9.10). As of September 10, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 3160 yuan/ton, up 6.67% from 2962 yuan/ton last Friday. On the one hand, the price of raw material methanol has risen significantly since September, supporting the cost; On the other hand, Jinling, Jinyi and other methane chloride plants operate at reduced load and issue orders in limited quantities. The supply of goods in the region is tight; This week, manufacturers and traders’ offers continued to rise slightly.

This week (9.2-9.10), the domestic methane chloride started to operate slightly, and the Jinling and Jinyi methane chloride plants operated at a reduced load with a total of 740000 tons/year. It supports the dichloromethane market.

This week (9.2-9.10), the spot price of methanol rose significantly, and the cost support strengthened. According to the business community, as of September 10, the spot price of methanol was 2714 yuan/ton, up 6.22% from 2553 on Friday. The domestic methanol market rose in shock. The main reasons are the short term shortage of supply and the short term rise in demand. The downstream receiving price has risen significantly. There is a demand for goods in stock. The traders’ mentality is stable and improving. The quotations of major manufacturers at ports and in the mainland have been continuously raised. Some manufacturers have been bidding well, mainly at a premium starting price. However, the rise in freight has restrained the growth of the internal real estate area.

With the arrival of the tenth quarter of the traditional “golden nine silver” season, the downstream thinner, cleaning and pharmaceutical industries have a small stock, and the support for dichloromethane has increased slightly.

Future market forecast: The analysts of methane chloride data from the business community believe that the domestic supply side of methane chloride has declined slightly in the short term, and the cost side has risen significantly. In addition, the downstream demand of Jinjiu has increased slightly. It is expected that dichloromethane will continue to rebound slightly in the later period, but the extent of the rebound is limited by the extent of the increase in demand side.

According to the monitoring of bulk data by the business community, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of the sample enterprises of the business community was 9066.67 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the price of the sample enterprises was 9510.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.89%. The price rose 5.96% year on year.

styrene

Styrene market prices rose this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the price of styrene has mainly increased in recent two weeks, and this week the price has continued to rise. The main reasons for the rise are the wide fluctuation of crude oil, the improvement of downstream demand compared with the previous period, the good market transaction, the decline of port inventory, the smooth delivery of styrene to the warehouse, and the rise of spot market due to the atmosphere of replenishment before the holiday.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene fell slightly after rising this week. On September 2, the price of pure benzene was 7500-7800 yuan/ton (the average price was 7608 yuan/ton). On Friday (September 9), the price of pure benzene was 7700-7850 yuan/ton (the average price was 7767 yuan/ton). The average price was 2.08% higher than last week and 1.93% lower than the same period last year. This week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China port increased by 5000 tons to 64600 tons compared with last week, and the port inventory continued to accumulate.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream styrene markets rose and fell at different levels this week. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 10550 yuan / ton. At the weekend, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 10466 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.79% and a decrease of 4.27% compared with the same period of last year. The crude oil rose, the raw material surface was firm, and the petrochemical manufacturers stabilized their prices. As the Mid Autumn Festival holiday approached, the enthusiasm of traders for trading was weakened, and the market trading was weak. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in East China market is 9800-10900 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of hips (polystyrene) is 10350-11600 yuan / ton.

The average price of EPS common materials this week is 11450 yuan / ton. The cost support is good, and the focus of market negotiation is higher. The South China market was boosted by futures and the rising trend of the mainstream East China market. The holders of goods rose along the trend, with low enthusiasm for buying orders. The EPS market quotation was weak. The manufacturers maintained stable prices for shipment, and the downstream mainly relied on demand.

The domestic ABS market has risen this week, and the spot prices of various brands have increased. As of September 9, the average price of mainstream general-purpose ABS offers was about 11900 yuan / ton, up or down by + 1.71% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month. In terms of industry load, the expected increase in the commencement of some ABS production lines in the early stage will be fulfilled, and the on-site supply will continue to be abundant, and the supply side will not reduce its pressure on the market. In terms of demand, there are two festivals in the near future. Downstream enterprises are more willing to stock up. In addition, some terminal enterprises have lifted the high temperature power rationing. The market has a strong atmosphere of speculation. However, it still takes time for downstream demand to keep pace with progress. The increase in the market offer is mainly due to the stronger mentality of sellers.

At present, the supply of styrene market is relatively tight, and the downstream commencement has increased slightly. On the whole, if the raw materials increase next week, the styrene market will follow the trend.

Recent calcium carbide price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China increased slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 3650 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 3733.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 2.28%, a year-on-year decrease of 31.50%. On September 4, the calcium carbide commodity index was 97.82, which was the same as yesterday, down 53.91% from 212.23 points (October 26, 2021), the highest point in the cycle, and up 76.28% from 55.49 points, the lowest point on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream cost support is enhanced, and the demand of downstream manufacturers is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly this week

The market price of upstream orchid charcoal rose slightly. The downstream PVC market price fell slightly. This week, the market price of PVC fell from 6532.86 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 6454.29 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.20%, a year-on-year decrease of 31.06%. The PVC market price dropped slightly, the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the calcium carbide price.

The downstream market fell slightly, and calcium carbide fell by a narrow range in the aftermarket

In the first ten days of September, the market of calcium carbide mainly fell in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon is weak, the cost support of calcium carbide is weakened, the downstream PVC market falls slightly, the downstream demand is weakened, and the rising power of calcium carbide is insufficient. In late August, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fall by a narrow range.

From August 26 to September 2, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China decreased slightly and rose as a whole. It was 7766.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 7633.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 1.72% week-on-week.

Market price of main hydrogenated benzene in China this week (unit: yuan / ton)

Market. The price on August 26 and September 2 rose and fell

East China, 7700 ~ 7800, 7600 ~ 7700, – 100

Shandong, 7600 ~ 7700., 7500 ~ 7600, – 100

In terms of crude oil, oil prices rose as a whole last week due to OPEC + production reduction expectations. However, against the background of continuous interest rate hikes by central banks around the world this week, the market has become more worried about the impact of high inflation and interest rate hikes on the economy, and oil prices have fallen by a wide margin. As of September 2, Brent’s price fell by 7.97 dollars per barrel, or 7.89%, compared with last week; WTI fell by US $6.19/barrel, or 6.65%.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, adjusted price, adjusted amount

August 2., 8650, – 200

August 4., 8450, – 200

August 5., 8150, – 300

August 11., 7950, – 200

August 16., 7750, – 200

August 18., 7500, – 250

August 30., 7600., + 100

On August 30, 2022, the ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene was 7600 yuan / ton.

Quotations from other enterprises: 7650 yuan / T from Jingbo petrochemical, 7503 yuan / T from Weilian chemical, 7550 yuan / T from Xinhai petrochemical and 7750 yuan / T from Hongrun petrochemical.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of the K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red indicates rising; Green means falling; The height of the K-bar indicates the fluctuation range. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that after entering July, the price of pure benzene fell continuously and recovered slightly in late August and early September.

This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene is weak on the whole, with few quotations from manufacturers. This week, the price of downstream procurement is obviously depressed, and most hydrogenated benzene enterprises are selling at reduced prices. The market turnover is general. In terms of fundamentals, the pure benzene market rose at the beginning of the week and held steady at the weekend. At the beginning of this week, the market mentality of pure benzene was boosted by the rise of both crude oil and styrene, and the price of pure benzene followed the rise. Sinopec raised the listing price by 100 yuan / ton, which again boosted the market mentality and led to the rise of local refining enterprises. The overall market trading is relatively active. At the weekend, with the decline of crude oil prices, the market atmosphere was affected to a certain extent, and the price of pure benzene remained temporarily stable. In terms of inventory, the inventory of pure benzene in East China port this week increased by 9400 tons to 59600 tons compared with last week, and the overall performance of the port is dominated by accumulation. In terms of downstream demand, styrene rose significantly this week, which supported the pure benzene market to a certain extent. In general, the supply of pure benzene is still relatively loose at present. In terms of demand, as the double festival approaches, the market is expected to see a certain increase in demand. The fundamentals of pure benzene are still weak as a whole, so it is expected that the price will be weak in the short term. In the future, we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external price trends, pure benzene port inventory and downstream operation on prices.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of September 2, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 7000 yuan / ton, an increase of 434 yuan / ton or 6.60% compared with August 28 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 6566 yuan / ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business association that in the first week of September (8.29-9.2), the market of n-butanol in Shandong Province was on the rise as a whole. At the beginning of the week, the downstream demand of n-butanol was released and improved, the trading atmosphere was active, and the market mentality was positive. The market situation of n-butanol was steadily rising, with a one-day increase of around 100-200 yuan / ton. As of September 2 at the weekend, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 6950-7050 yuan / ton, and the cumulative increase in the week was around 300-500 yuan / ton. At present, the transaction of n-butanol is stable and the atmosphere is normal.

In terms of upstream propylene, this week (8.29-9.2), the propylene market in Shandong Province in China as a whole was on the rise. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, on September 1, the reference price of propylene was 7100.60 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.37% compared with August 1 (7348.60 yuan / ton).

Post market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the n-butanol market is running steadily at a high level, and the transmission of supply and demand in the market has improved compared with the previous period. The n-butanol data analyst of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong is mostly stable and in the middle of the overall operation, and more attention should be paid to the changes in raw materials and news on the supply and demand side.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the trading society, the nickel price fluctuated slightly in August. At the beginning of the month, the nickel price was 192383.33 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the nickel price dropped slightly to 171233.33 yuan / ton, with an overall decrease of 10.99%, up 17.11% year-on-year.

On the macro side, the domestic industrial added value, retail sales of consumer goods and fixed asset investment above Designated Size in July were all lower than expected, while the real estate data weakened again to a new low. In August, the global energy crisis became more severe, and the economic prospects of Europe were even less ideal. However, the US economic data is not ideal, and the global economy is in recession.

Supply: from January to July this year, China imported 454400 physical tons of nickel wet process intermediate products, equivalent to about 75500 tons of nickel metal, a year-on-year increase of 126%. The production capacity of Indonesian nickel ore and ferronickel in the overseas market has increased rapidly, and the domestic electrolytic nickel supply is expected to be loose. Domestic pure nickel inventory is at a low level. The recovery of overseas nickel mines eased the tight situation. Indonesia’s Ferronickel, wet intermediate products and high nickel matte gradually flowed in, and the excess pressure on the supply side remained unabated.

Demand: downstream stainless steel is still a factor of instability. The implementation of production reduction, high inventory has undergone certain decontamination, but the overall demand is still less than expected. Low price sources and market sentiment lead traders to wait and see, which makes the price performance weak and the industrial chain can not be resonated, which also restricts the nickel price. China’s new energy vehicles continue to maintain a high-speed growth trend, but the year-on-year growth rate of production and sales slowed down in July, and the global economic downturn may also drag down the new energy market. From January to July, China’s power battery loading volume was 134gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 110.6%, but the ternary battery loading volume was only 41.3%. The growth of demand for ternary batteries was squeezed, which dragged down the growth of downstream demand for nickel.

News: Indonesia plans to impose 2% – 3% export tariff on ferronickel and nickel pig iron. This range may be adjusted with the change of nickel price. This tax policy adjustment may be implemented as early as the third quarter. Indonesia imposed tariffs on Ferronickel, which directly led to an increase in the cost of converting stainless steel and new energy NPI to high nickel matte. However, at present, the stainless steel market is sluggish, and the NPI production process in the new energy field is not the mainstream production process, so the impact of taxation is limited. It is also rumored that the state intends to collect and store nickel, but it is expected that the nickel reserves collected this time will be small and have little impact.

To sum up, the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose. In terms of demand, the downstream stainless steel and new energy are less than expected. September is the traditional peak season. Demand may improve, but the overall economy is sluggish. According to the annual price comparison chart of business associations in recent years, nickel prices may rise slightly in September, but the overall increase is limited. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate widely and rise slightly in September.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on August 31 was 94.53, down 0.17 points from yesterday, down 15.23% from the highest point 111.51 (2021-11-03) in the cycle, and up 14.04% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Commodity market: the data monitoring of business agency shows that the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market in August was stable, and it was slightly reduced at the beginning and end of the month. Among them, the mainstream market price on the 1st was about 15642.86 yuan / ton, and the main price on the 31st was 15471.43 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 1.10%. Manufacturers in China’s main production areas have normal production, sufficient market inventory, little change in downstream demand, and the overall transaction is relatively light.

Industrial chain: upstream raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of business agency, the acrylonitrile market in August rose first and then fell. On the 1st, the domestic acrylonitrile spot market price was 9620 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, it was reported as 8900 yuan / ton, down 7.48% this month. The supply side operation rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry decreased slightly compared with the previous period. The overall operation rate was around 60%, and the downstream demand was slightly improved. However, the market supply side pressure was still on, and the downstream purchase was mainly based on small orders, and the offers of merchants were slightly adjusted; Although the pressure on the supply side and the cost side currently restricts the action of acrylonitrile, the price of acrylonitrile has dropped to a stage low this month. In addition, the demand side has slightly improved. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be slightly explored in the later period.

Raw material acrylic acid: as of August 30, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 7400.00 yuan / ton, down 22.65% compared with the price on August 1, down 49.20% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, and down 51.53% compared with the same period of last year, according to the data of business agency. In this month, the raw material propylene fell first and then rose. Recently, the support of raw material cost has been strengthened, and the Jinjiu is coming. The market atmosphere has been warmed up. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stronger in the short term. We need to pay more attention to the changes of market news.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG market price rose first and then fell in August, with a drop of 11.69% in the month, and the focus shifted downward. Among them, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on the 1st was 6420 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on the 31st was 5892 yuan / ton, with a monthly drop of about 9.63%. In August, the liquefied natural gas market was developed first and then restrained, with a downward trend. At the end of the month, the market demand was poor. In addition, affected by the domestic epidemic prevention and control and the transportation obstruction, the liquid price dropped sharply. The mentality of buying up and not buying down in the downstream is strengthened. It is expected that the domestic LNG price trend will continue to decline in the short term..

Future forecast: the cost of raw materials in this month will be reduced, with a large drop, and the cost support will continue to weaken. Among them, public health events will have a partial impact on the raw material market. The spot stock of Polyacrylamide in China’s market is sufficient, the downstream demand is general, the transaction is light, and the production is normal. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market in the future will continue to be stable and slightly adjusted. Pay attention to the recent rise of crude oil and the upcoming “golden nine” may have a driving effect on the market.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of PS ordinary materials at the beginning of this month was 11283 yuan / ton, and the average price of PS ordinary materials at the end of the month was 10583 yuan / ton, down 6.20% and 3.20% compared with the same period of the year.

2、 Market analysis

At present, the market price of PS (polystyrene) has declined slightly, and styrene has strengthened. However, the purchasing interest of downstream is low, and the shipment of merchants is under pressure, and the profit continues to be increased. Reference for quotation excluding tax of mainstream brands: Zhenjiang Qimei pg33 reported 9700 yuan / ton, Taiwan Taihua 5250 reported 11540 yuan / ton, Ningbo Taihua 535n reported 9620 yuan / ton, Shanghai Secco 123p reported 9700 yuan / ton, Thailand Petrochemical 150 reported 10980 yuan / ton, Guangzhou Petrochemical 525 reported 9250 yuan / ton.

At present, the trend of styrene is strong, which boosts the market atmosphere. The impact of low-cost supply in the market and the increase of domestic supply depress the market sentiment. In the game of good and bad news, it is expected that the domestic PS (polystyrene) market will be strong in the short term. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is 9200-11000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of hips (polystyrene) is 10400-11700 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the downstream trading atmosphere of PS is cold, and it is expected that the short-term domestic PS (polystyrene) market will rise or fall in a narrow range.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate market fell this month, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of August 29, the average price of 50 particle samples of domestic potassium sulfate was 4900 yuan / ton, up or down by – 8.41% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

In August, the domestic potash fertilizer market momentum continued to decline, and the operating rate of potassium sulfate Mannheim type enterprises continued to decline. Although some enterprises increased their load by producing autumn compound fertilizer, the overall operating rate has dropped from 40% at the beginning of the month to nearly 20%. The downstream consumption situation is poor, the flow of compound fertilizer in the third quarter is slow, and the potassium sulfate enterprise has a low load but a high inventory position, which makes it difficult for the supply side to support the spot. In addition, the previous export sales were affected by the export policy to a certain extent, forming various pressures on the on-site supply. The upstream potassium chloride continued to decline in August. Border trade and port cargo volume continued to be high, imported and domestic goods filled domestic inventory at the same time, and downstream enterprises such as potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate purchased generally. The competition in the field was strengthened. By the end of the month, the price had fallen below the cost price. Potassium chloride has poor support for processing potassium sulfate enterprises. The market price of potassium sulfate gradually declined, the profit situation of merchants was poor, the prices of many regions were inverted, and the news of new orders was rare.

3、 Future forecast

The potassium sulfate analyst of the Business Association believes that the domestic potassium sulfate market fell in August, and the potassium chloride market fell. The cost support of domestic potassium sulfate is weakened. The supply side is general but the follow-up situation on the demand side is poor. Combined with the reduction of export sales, it is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price will continue to weaken in the short term due to poor demand.