1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, spot nickel fell slightly on the 13th, and spot nickel was reported at 153383.33 yuan / ton, down 1.11% from the previous trading day. The high correction of nickel price is mainly caused by fear of high prices. Since the end of April, nickel price has been a volatile upward trend. In terms of fundamentals, the rainy season in the Philippines is approaching, and the tight supply supports the nickel price. The downstream stainless steel production is constantly limited, multi plant maintenance, and the output in September is low, affecting the demand for nickel. In terms of downstream new energy, the performance is still acceptable. In August, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles and retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased to varying degrees.

Forecast: tight supply support and limited demand for stainless steel. It is expected that the nickel price will mainly fluctuate in a wide range in the short term.

According to the monitoring of business society, coking coal prices are still strong. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 3286.67 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 3520 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 7.1% and 161.39% over the same period last year. Coking coal prices are running at a high level.

On September 10, the commodity index of coking coal was 259.78, up 4.92 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 478.45% from the lowest point of 44.91 on January 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

According to the business society, in terms of supply, coking coal is still a strong operating market in the near future. The sales of coal mines in the main producing area is good, and the number of coal pulling vehicles in the mine is not reduced, and most of them are produced and sold immediately. Affected by environmental protection, and although at the beginning of the month, the coal management ticket of the coal mine is sufficient and the output has increased, the supply is still in a tight situation.

Demand: from September 3 to September 10, 2021, the market price of coke in Shanxi increased, with the price at 3438 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3838 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 11.63%. This week, coke has experienced two rounds of increase and landed quickly, with an increase of 200 yuan / ton per round. So far, it has increased for ten rounds, with a cumulative increase of 1360 yuan / ton. In terms of downstream demand, steel mills are not less active in purchasing this week, and they are active in increasing storage. Some steel mills are overhauled, and their demand for coke has decreased slightly. At present, steel mills are still active in purchasing, and the demand for replenishing storage is high.

In the view of coking coal analysts of business society, coking coal is still a strong operating market in the near future. In terms of producing areas, the coal from producing areas has increased recently, but the supply of coking coal from main producing areas is still relatively tight; In terms of downstream coke, the coke price is relatively strong. Under the current situation of strong production restriction and tight coke supply, coke enterprises have a strong mentality of raising prices. Coke still has a strong demand for coke coal replenishment after. Overall, coking coal still has support in the later stage, and the price still maintains a strong trend.

According to the price monitoring data of business society, as of September 5, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 7750 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 30 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 7400 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 350 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.73%. Compared with the price on August 1 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 7100 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 650 yuan / ton, an increase of 9.15%.

In the first week of September, the domestic n-propanol market rose and fell. The high-end price of n-propanol in Shandong was slow to ship, and the dealers made downward adjustment to the price. The low-end price of n-propanol increased significantly this week, which is due to the narrowing of the high-low price difference in the market in Shandong. In Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, the overall performance of n-propanol market is relatively stable. The n-propanol production unit of Rongxin chemical operates normally. The external quotation of n-propanol is 8500 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as that at the end of August. At present, the overall performance of the domestic n-propanol market increased this week. According to the data monitoring of the business society, the average price of domestic n-propanol was 7750 yuan / ton at the weekend, with an overall increase of more than 4% during the week compared with the beginning of the week.

In terms of upstream ethylene, according to the monitoring data of business society, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and rose this week. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the week was US $1062.50/t, and the average price of ethylene at the weekend was US $1090.00/t, up 2.56%. The current price fell 4.13% month on month, and the current price rose 52.45% year-on-year. Recently, the external ethylene market has shown an overall upward trend. Asian ethylene market prices continued to rise. As of the 3rd, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1006-1016 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $986-996 / ton. European ethylene market prices fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 3rd, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1212-1222 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1136-1144 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States fluctuated and rose. As of the 3rd, the price was US $1026-1044 / T. recently, the overall external ethylene market showed an upward trend, and the recent fluctuation of ethylene in Europe was not large. Ethylene rose periodically in Asia. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene external market is general recently, the market trading atmosphere is OK, and the ethylene market rises slightly.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the downstream demand for n-propanol is relatively stable. After the new n-propanol device is opened by a large factory in Shandong, the external quotation of n-propanol is relatively conservative. The analysts of body business society believe that the low-end price of n-propanol may continue to rise in the later stage, so it may drive the overall market to rise slightly. More attention should be paid to the specific changes in supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash is strong this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was about 2312.5 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2337.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.08% and 43.11% over the same period last year. On September 5, the commodity index of light soda ash was 119.87, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 89.82% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2300-2400 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is relatively strong, and the mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 2350-2450 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in Central China is relatively strong, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 2300-2350 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the short-term high price of soda ash is dominated. Data show that the overall operating rate of soda ash during the week was 77.27%, 77.58% last week and decreased by 0.31% month on month. The output of soda ash was 549900 tons, a decrease of 2200 tons.

Demand: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of glass in the spot market increased slightly. The average price of glass was 38.5 yuan / m2 last Friday and 38.62 yuan / m2 this Friday. The price rose slightly during the week, with a range of 0.34%. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of glass in the spot market increased slightly. The average price of glass was 38.5 yuan / m2 last Friday and 38.62 yuan / m2 this Friday. The price rose slightly during the week, with a range of 0.34%.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of price rise and fall of chlor alkali industry in the 35th week of 2021 (8.30-9.3), there were 3 kinds of commodities rising, 2 kinds falling and 0 kinds rising or falling. The main commodities rising were: light soda ash (1.08%), PVC (0.80%), caustic soda (0.38%); The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (- 1.13%) and calcium carbide (- 0.92%). Both rose or fell by 0.05% this week.

Business analysts believe that the domestic soda ash price is light, the market is running, the market trading atmosphere is relatively stable, and the manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. Downstream glass prices are strong, and soda ash is mostly purchased on demand. Generally speaking, soda ash tends to be strong in the later stage, and the market operation is mainly based on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of chlorinated paraffin increased this week. On August 30, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6100 yuan / ton, and on September 5, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6133 yuan / ton. The price of chlorinated paraffin rose by 0.55% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic chlorinated paraffin started stably, the unit operated normally, and the price trend was upward. At present, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is 6000-6200 yuan / ton, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is about 5800 yuan / ton, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is about 5800 yuan / ton, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shaanxi is about 5600-5800 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong is 6100-6400 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax is stable this week, the trading volume is OK, and the recent market is mainly stable. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, liquid chlorine in Shandong rose sharply this week, followed by other regions, and the demand side is good.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffins of business society believe that due to the continuous rise in the price of raw liquid chlorine this week, the market demand for chlorinated paraffins is good, and the price increases slightly. At present, the market supply and demand is balanced. With the support of favorable cost, the price of chlorinated paraffin is expected to be stable and upward in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business society, since August 3, hydrogen peroxide began to rebound, and the price rose steadily, with an increase of more than 6%. Since the end of the month, the terminal demand has decreased, the hydrogen peroxide market has been callback, and the market is weak and stable. As of September 3, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 846 yuan / ton, up 4.96% from August 3.

The terminal demand increased, and the hydrogen peroxide market continued to rise in August

Since August 3, the market of terminal paper industry has been stable, the caprolactam market has been high, the purchase demand has warmed up, the order volume of hydrogen peroxide has increased, the manufacturer’s quotation has begun to rise, and hydrogen peroxide has begun to rise steadily. In the middle of the month, due to the shutdown and maintenance of some hydrogen peroxide enterprises, the demand for terminal rigidity increased, which was supported by benefits. Hydrogen peroxide still maintained an upward trend, with an increase of more than 6%.

After the end of the stock market, the weakness of hydrogen peroxide stabilized

Since the end of August, the hydrogen peroxide stock market has ended one after another, the terminal demand has slowed down, and the market has started to decline one after another. In the week from August 30 to September 3, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers was stable, the market continued to be 846 yuan / ton, and the rise was stable.

The quotation of hydrogen peroxide manufacturer on September 3 is as follows:

Luxi Chemical offered 27.5% hydrogen peroxide at 800 yuan / ton, stable; Anhui Quansheng chemical quoted 920 yuan / ton of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide, and the price fell by 30 yuan / ton; Zhengyuan chemical fertilizer 27.5% hydrogen peroxide quoted 820 yuan / ton, stable; Shandong Huatai 27.5% hydrogen peroxide quoted 850 yuan / ton, stable.

On September 3, the commodity price index of hydrogen peroxide and caprolactam was 84.41, down 1.03 points from yesterday, down 61.48% from the highest point 219.12 in the cycle (2020-10-27), and up 3.80% from the lowest point 81.32 on August 3, 2021（ Note: period refers to from January 1, 2019 to now)

The terminal caprolactam was supported by the rise of raw materials, and the manufacturer’s shutdown and maintenance price rose all the way. From mid August, the price began to rise continuously, rising to September 3, an increase of 3.51%. Due to the shutdown and maintenance of manufacturers, the purchase demand for hydrogen peroxide has decreased, which has limited the rising market of hydrogen peroxide to a certain extent. In the future, it is still expected to continue to lead the rise of hydrogen peroxide price.

On September 3, the price comparison index of hydrogen peroxide and corrugated paper was 112.42, up 0.4 points from yesterday, down 54.30% from the highest point 246.00 in the cycle (October 21, 2019), and up 4.54% from the lowest point 107.54 on January 29, 2019（ Note: period refers to 2017-01-01 to now)

Since the beginning of August, the corrugated paper of hydrogen peroxide terminal has also started a rising market, driving the rise of hydrogen peroxide Market. From August 3 to September 3, the maximum increase of corrugated paper was more than 5%. In early September, the market also fell one after another. To some extent, it suppressed the rise of hydrogen peroxide Market.

Business agency hydrogen peroxide analyst Li Bing believes that: the Mid Autumn Festival is approaching, the demand for terminal paper industry is improving, and the future market of hydrogen peroxide is still expected to usher in rising space.

The price of orthobenzene rose in September

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of ortho benzene in September was 6400 yuan / ton, up 1.59% from the listing price of 6300 yuan / ton in August, and 45.45% from the same period last year. The market of orthobenzene was strong in September.

Downstream industry chain market recovery

According to the data detection of business society, the phthalic anhydride industry chain index on August 31 was 75.23, up 0.23 points from yesterday, down 31.83% from the highest point of 110.35 points in the cycle (2012-09-09), and up 96.63% from the lowest point of 38.26 points on April 6, 2020（ Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now). The phthalic anhydride industry chain index rose, the phthalic anhydride industry chain market warmed up, and the downstream of o-benzene rose strongly.

Market Overview

According to the monitoring of business agency: on September 1, the executive price of domestic orthobenzene Sinopec at the beginning of the month was 6400 yuan / ton; The price has risen. Recently, the adjacent benzene in the port area has been destocked, and the external quotation of adjacent benzene has fluctuated and stabilized. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the actual order is discussed in detail. Sinopec’s o-xylene market rose, the external quotation of o-xylene fluctuated and adjusted, and the high inventory of o-xylene in the port went to the warehouse; The price of mixed xylene stabilized and the cost of o-benzene stabilized; The downstream phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and warmed up, the plasticizer DOP market fluctuated and warmed up, the downstream market fluctuated and warmed up, the demand was just demand, and the enthusiasm of adjacent benzene transaction was general. The recovery of industrial chain market stimulated the rise of orthobenzene market, and the price of orthobenzene rose in September. Overall, the downward pressure of the adjacent benzene market is weak, and the upward momentum is increased. In the future, the adjacent benzene market is mainly strong and stable.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average market price at the beginning of the month was 2163 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was 2850 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 31.74% and a price increase of 111.63% over the same period last year. Coking coal prices are running at a high level.

On August 30, the coking coal commodity index was 210.33, the same as yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 368.34% from the lowest point of 44.91 on January 28, 2016（ Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

According to the business agency, the main reason for the coking coal price in August is the supply. The coking coal is still a strong operating market in the near future, and the coal in the producing area has increased recently. However, affected by the environmental protection inspection, the coking coal supply in the main producing area is still tight, and the contradiction between coking coal supply and demand still exists.

Demand: in August 2021, the coke market experienced seven rounds of increase, with a cumulative increase of 840 yuan / ton. Up to now, the mainstream market price in Shanxi is 2496 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 3318 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 32.93%. The downstream has a good demand for coke: this month, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not reduced, the storage is increased actively, the demand for coke is well supported, the steel plant purchasing enthusiasm is improved, the demand for replenishment is high, and the demand for coke is well supported. As of August 27, the national stocks of thread, wire rod, hot rolling, cold rolling and medium plate were 7990900 tons, 1615700 tons, 2931900 tons, 1182300 tons and 1248000 tons respectively. The inventory of the five major domestic steel varieties decreased to a certain extent this month, among which the inventory of rebar decreased the most.

According to the coking coal analyst of business society, coking coal is still a strong operating market in the near future, and the coal in the producing area has increased recently. However, due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, the supply of coking coal in the main producing area is still relatively tight, and the contradiction between coking coal supply and demand still exists; In terms of downstream coke, the coke price is relatively strong. Under the current environment of slight shortage of supply and good demand, it is expected that the coke market will continue to maintain stable, medium and strong operation in the short term, and coke still has a strong demand for coke coal. Overall, the price of coking coal in the later stage still maintained a strong trend.

According to the price monitoring data of business society, as of August 30, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 7400 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 1 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 7100 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 300 yuan / ton, or 4.23%.

In the first ten days of August, the domestic n-propanol market showed a stable performance. For the stability maintenance of new units of large n-propanol plants in Shandong, the early quotation was around 6400 yuan / ton. The secondary market price has also been stable, low up and high down, and the overall market fluctuation is small.

Since the middle of August, the market of n-propanol in Shandong has increased slightly, the demand of n-propanol factories has followed up well, and the offer price has risen steadily. On August 20, the ex factory quotation of n-propanol in Shandong was around 6700-6850 yuan / ton (apron), an increase of 100-200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month. The market of n-propanol in Nanjing is stable, Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. the n-propanol unit operates normally, and the ex factory quotation of n-propanol refers to 8500 yuan / ton (apron).

In late August, the domestic n-propanol market as a whole maintained a stable consolidation operation. Downstream users just needed to purchase. The n-propanol market was stable and the on-site inventory was normal. As of August 30, the average ex factory price of domestic n-propanol was 7400 yuan / ton, a monthly increase of 4.23% compared with the beginning of August.

In terms of upstream ethylene, the external ethylene market first rose sharply in August, and then continued to decline after rising to a high level. After falling to the same price as that at the beginning of the month at the end of the month, it was shaken and consolidated, and the highest price was US $1153 / ton. Ethylene market prices in Asia continued to rise. As of the 27th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $961-971 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $956-966 / ton. European ethylene market prices fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 27th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1184-1195 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1130-1138 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States fluctuated and rose. As of the 27th, the price was 828-846 US dollars / ton. In August, the external ethylene market should be said to be stable after fluctuation, and the price generally returned to the beginning of the month. On August 29, hurricane IDA made landfall along the coast of Louisiana. Affected by this, some chemical plants were shut down or operated at low load, and the supply of ethylene in the United States is expected to be in short supply. In August, the external price of ethylene rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the average price of ethylene was US $1062.00/t, and at the end of the month, the average price of ethylene was US $1062.75/t, an increase of 0.07%.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the demand side of n-propanol is normal, and the domestic n-propanol factories are under normal operation. According to the analysts of business society, the domestic n-propanol market trend in the short term will mainly focus on the stable consolidation and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.

The quotations of major manufacturers increased, the domestic aggregate MDI market recovered slowly, and traders were bullish. Wanhua controls goods, which helps the bullish atmosphere of the whole market.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, from August 20 to 27, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI increased from 18575 yuan / ton to 18825 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.35% in the cycle, a month on month decrease of 5.64% and a year-on-year increase of 29.16%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of August 27:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong 18800-19000 yuan / ton 18300-18500 yuan / ton

East China 18800 yuan / ton 18400-18600 yuan / ton

South China About 18800 yuan / ton 18300-18400 yuan / ton

Summary of domestic aggregated MDI traders as of August 27:

The main driving force of this week’s rise is that Yantai Wanhua new buy it now price remains stable and limited supply; The mentality of the industry was boosted, and there were fewer shipments at low prices in the market. In addition, the weekly price of Shanghai Kesi Chuang also increased, with less volume. However, with the operators gradually showing resistance to high prices and transaction difficulties, coupled with the new moon listing price announced by the main factories, the downstream is mainly on the sidelines.

In terms of enterprises, the MDI unit (300000 t / a) of Hungary boside chemical company, a subsidiary of Wanhua chemical, began to be shut down for maintenance on August 17, 2021, and the maintenance is expected to take about 50 days; The overhaul will carry out technical transformation of MDI unit. It is expected that after the completion of technical transformation, the production capacity of MDI unit will be increased to 350000 T / A.

In the future, business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregation MDI market is dominated by narrow consolidation.