Product Name: calcium carbide

Latest price (August 26): 2740.00 yuan / ton

On August 26, the ex factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable, which was the same as that on August 14. The price of raw materials is low, and the cost of calcium carbide is generally supported. Downstream PVC market rose slightly recently, downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement, and calcium carbide supply is normal.

In the near future, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 2800 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

The spot price of aniline in the market rose slightly this week. On August 21, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4250-4430 yuan / ton, while that in East China was 4400-4500 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, the listed price of pure benzene on Sunday (August 23) was 3000-3450 yuan / ton (the average price was 3390 yuan / ton), and the average price was 50 yuan / ton, or 1.45% lower than last week. This week, the decline of pure benzene in northern China was obvious, and the restart of downstream maintenance equipment was delayed, which caused pressure on the supply and demand side of the north. The listed price of pure benzene in North China of Sinopec was reduced by 100 yuan / ton, while no adjustment was made in other regions. The market is waiting for Sinopec’s price guidance. This week, pure benzene port inventory is still high, but unloading pressure is reduced.

The price of nitric acid went down again this week. On the 14th, the price in East China was 1516.67 yuan / ton, and on the 21st was 1500 yuan / ton, down 16.67 yuan / ton or 1.1% compared with last week.

East China enterprises to implement contract orders, spot prices driven by a small rise.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, the weakness of downstream demand is more obvious, which has a great drag on the pure benzene market. In addition, the port inventory is still high, so the short-term pure benzene market remains weak. In the later stage, it focused on Sinopec’s listing price adjustment and downstream operating load changes.

The demand of downstream factories has not been greatly improved. Shandong enterprises are mainly engaged in destocking at stable prices, while those in East China mainly supply ships and execute contracts. Aniline prices are expected to remain stable next week.

This week, the market is good, and the national general rise was implemented on the 18th and 21st, with an increase of 200 yuan / ton. At present, the latest price of mainstream East China is 7000 yuan / ton.

Some enterprises stopped production for maintenance, and the ethylene oxide plant of Sanjiang Letian (100000 tons) and Jiangsu oak (200000 tons) overhauled. As a result, market supply pressure was reduced and regional resources were tight. In addition, the consumption of downstream monomers increased, prices continued to rise, manufacturers’ inventory was low, and the market transaction atmosphere began to be active, forming an upward adjustment window. Ethylene narrow range shock, weak consolidation, raw material price stagflation, cost support is weak, and ethylene oxide profit margin is improved. Ethylene glycol is affected by the demand side, the price rises, and the fundamental support is strong.

According to market participants, the price of epoxy continued to rise on the 25th, with an increase of 200 yuan / ton and the implementation of 7200 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of activated carbon was 10733 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 10733 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was stable.

Products: the domestic price of activated carbon is stable temporarily. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is about 7500-11000 yuan / ton; most of the domestic activated carbon prices are stable, the market transaction is light, and the orders are mostly on demand, and the total transaction volume is limited.

Industry chain: the cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon is supported, and the demand is fair; the cost support of coal based carbon raw materials is weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries collect goods according to the order. The purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable. The environmental protection policy has boosted the activated carbon market. The overall market demand is fair, the volume of sales is average, and the transaction atmosphere is cold.

Forecast: the transaction in the spot market of activated carbon is general, and the quotation of merchants is mostly stable, which lacks the support of favorable conditions, and pays more attention to the downstream transaction. It is expected that the activated carbon market will be stable.

The international crude oil price continues to fluctuate at a high level. The rainy weather in China this week affected the demand of gasoline market. The MTBE market purchased on demand and the market price remained stable. The price of MTBE on August 14 was 3750 yuan / ton, up 0.45% from the price at the beginning of the week, according to the business agency.

This week, domestic rainy weather increased, gasoline terminal demand remained rigid demand, coupled with the lack of action on the international oil price, the downstream was mainly low-cost replenishment. As a result, the replenishment intention of MTBE and other intermediate materials is relatively negative, and MTBE manufacturers’ shipment is not smooth, and the market is weak and stable.

At present, the start-up load of MTBE unit is slightly lower than that of last week, and MTBE output is slightly reduced compared with last week, but it has little impact on the overall supply of MTBE market.

According to the MTBE product analysts of energy branch of business agency, the international crude oil price will continue to maintain a fluctuating upward trend; in addition, with the arrival of the traditional peak season of gold, silver and ten, gasoline demand will increase, which is favorable to the MTBE market price. It is expected that the domestic MTBE market price will show a fluctuating upward trend.

Trade name: isopropanol

Latest price (August 17): 7200 yuan / ton

Analysis points: on August 17, the trading atmosphere of domestic isopropanol market was general, the export advantage weakened, and the favorable foreign trade slowed down. The price of raw material acetone decreased significantly, and the cost support was insufficient. Domestic isopropanol downstream wait-and-see mood is obvious, take goods very carefully, turnover is very few.

Forecast: the price of isopropanol is likely to continue to fall in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of activated carbon was 10933 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 10733 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with the price falling by 1.83%.

Products: the price of activated carbon in China is weak. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is about 7500-11000 yuan / ton; most of the domestic activated carbon prices are stable, and some are down, which has little impact on the overall market and the total transaction volume is limited.

Industry chain: the cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon is supported, and the demand is fair; the cost support of coal based carbon raw materials is weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries collect goods according to the order. The purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable. The environmental protection policy has boosted the activated carbon market. The overall market demand is fair, the volume of sales is average, and the transaction atmosphere is cold.

Forecast: the trading in the spot market of activated carbon is generally stable, and the quotations of merchants are mostly stable, and some of them are down regulated. It is expected that the active carbon market will be mainly stable with individual adjustments.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG on August 7 was 2470 yuan / ton, up 0.27% compared with 2463.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 1.09% higher on a month on month basis, and 24.77% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the domestic LNG market remained stable and rose slightly. Due to the recent increase of maintenance fluid plants in some areas, the output has decreased, the on-site supply has been tightened, the shipment has been smooth, the contradiction between supply and demand has been improved, and the price has risen steadily. At present, the overall domestic operating rate is about 60%, and the operating rate in some regions is slightly low. Although the preliminary maintenance enterprises start to sell, more enterprises such as Huineng in Inner Mongolia, Yangling in Shaanxi, Zhongjing in Sichuan, Shouyang in Shanxi and so on, have entered the overhaul stage collectively with large production capacity. Boosted by this, the liquid plants have a strong desire to support the market, and the recent increase in imported gas prices has driven the market sentiment The overall trend of liquid price is rising. However, in the off-season market, the downstream demand is limited and the follow-up is insufficient, so the rising space of liquid price is limited.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of August 7, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 2470 yuan / ton, that of Inner Mongolia was 2430-2500 yuan / ton, that of Shaanxi was 2500 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi was 2500 yuan / ton, that of Ningxia was 2480 yuan / ton, and that of Xinjiang was 2440 yuan / ton. The overall price of liquid was stable and did not change much.

Enterprise capacity rose and fell from August 7 to August 3

Inner Mongolia Shitai 550000 m3 / D 2430 yuan / ton 2430 yuan / ton

Star energy 1 million cubic meters / day 2480 yuan / ton 2460 yuan / ton 20 yuan

Inner Mongolia Sentai: 1.2 million cubic meters / day: 2520 yuan / ton: 2520 yuan / ton

Zhongyuan green energy: 3 million cubic meters / day, 2500 yuan / ton, 2500 yuan / ton

Shengdazi Prefecture: 1 million cubic meters / day 2490 yuan / ton 2450 yuan / ton 40 yuan

Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2750 yuan / ton: 2750 yuan / ton

Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 2480 yuan / ton 2500 yuan / ton – 20

Xinjiang Qinghua: 300000 cubic meters / day: 3000 yuan / ton: 3000 yuan / ton

Qinshui Xinao — 2500 yuan / ton 2400 yuan / ton 100 yuan

At present, the price of downstream methanol is at a historical low level, and some methanol plants with backward process and high cost are shut down; most of the international methanol plants have stable production, and the import volume is expected to remain high in August; the traditional downstream demand is general, and formaldehyde enters the traditional off-season. Under the premise of no inventory reduction, it is difficult for the methanol market to reach the bottom. At present, the supply of methanol market at home and abroad is increasing, while the demand is weakening, and the fundamentals of methanol supply exceeding demand are highlighted. Methanol analysts of the business agency predict that the domestic methanol market will bottom again in August, and it is not ruled out that there is the possibility of falling below the new low.

At present, the supply pressure of liquid ammonia tends to increase. It is rumored that Shandong large plant may have a device overhaul in August, which may have a great impact on the market prices of Shandong and Hebei. On the demand side, the downstream procurement may slow down in the later stage, resulting in a certain pressure in the later stage of liquid ammonia supply. In addition, the export of phosphate fertilizer is affected more obviously, mainly by the overseas epidemic situation, and it is unlikely to recover in the short term. Therefore, affected by the two factors of supply and demand, the price of liquid ammonia is expected to be stable in the near future.

Urea and upstream liquid ammonia have risen slightly in recent years, and the cost support is strong. Affected by the printing mark, the downstream demand is strong. The rubber plate factory and compound fertilizer plant follow up appropriately, and the middlemen are cautious in receiving goods. Urea analysts from the business club believe that the current agricultural demand is low, and the downstream industry is generally enthusiastic about urea procurement. Although there is support from the printing mark, the support is weak, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.

At present, the upstream liquid chlorine market is at a high level, and the price support of methane chloride is acceptable; the overall purchase of dichloromethane in the downstream market is insufficient, which is not conducive to the market support. According to the business association, at present, the dichloromethane market is gradually recovering, the inventory pressure of enterprises is not big, and the raw materials are high, and the production cost pressure of enterprises is relatively high. However, the downstream market demand is still weak, and the price support for dichloromethane is insufficient, and it is expected to maintain stable operation in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

LNG analysts of the business agency believe that: at present, the number of maintenance enterprises is increasing, the supply of goods in the field is tightening, and the upward trend of imported gas drives up the market atmosphere, and the liquid plants actively push up. However, the demand in the off-season is limited and the supporting force is insufficient. It is expected that the driving force for the rise of domestic LNG market is limited in the short term, and it may continue to operate stably in the future.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid fell this week. As of the end of the week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 8850 yuan / ton, 1.88% lower than that at the beginning of the week, and 23.31% lower than that at the beginning of the week.

Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price has fallen. Up to now, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is 8000-9000 yuan / ton. The domestic hydrofluoric acid trading market is weak. The negative factors of hydrofluoric acid price fall include the following aspects:

First, the market price of hydrofluoric acid raw material fluorite decreased slightly. As of the end of the week, the domestic fluorite price was 2761.11 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was sufficient, and the on-site shipment was not positive, and the price of fluorite dropped slightly. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiation was RMB 2550-2700 / T. the decline of fluorite price was a negative effect on hydrofluoric acid market, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price declined.

Second: the domestic market of refrigerants is lower this week. In recent years, the sales market of automobile industry is general, but the market of refrigerant downstream of the terminal remains at a low level. The demand for refrigerants has not been significantly improved. The foreign economy has been recovering continuously. However, the export of refrigerant terminals has not changed much. However, the domestic air conditioning industry has started to operate at a low level, and the demand for maintenance and after-sales service is weak There was no significant improvement. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and the inventory is in a reasonable range. Although the market price has increased, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and there is a lot of wait-and-see mood. The actual transaction center of gravity is shifted downward. Some traders are looking for positive shipment, and the quotation is slightly lower than the manufacturer’s ex factory price. There is a phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiation is 16000-16500 yuan / ton 。 The market of R134a in China continues to decline and has fallen to the bottom. The automobile market continues to be depressed with weak demand. The focus of market trading has shifted down and the atmosphere of transaction is light. With sufficient supply of goods in the market and the impact of new production capacity entering the market, the competition is fierce, the supply side gradually forms a negative situation, the price keeps falling, the downstream demand is not improved, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid falls.

Third, the domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, the hydrofluoric acid on-site device operates stably, and the hydrofluoric acid market price is lower. So far, the mainstream hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 8000-8500 yuan / ton, and the hydrofluoric acid price in the northern market is 8000-9000 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has fallen down. Some manufacturers have reported that hydrofluoric acid has survived in the cracks, and some manufacturers still have losses and the market is not good.

On the whole, affected by various negative factors, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price fell down. In addition, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry did not significantly improve, and the upstream fluorite price fell. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in the business agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to decline.

On July 30, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $39.92/barrel, down $1.35. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell, with the main contract settlement price at $43.25/barrel, down $0.84. Oil prices fell sharply, mainly due to weak US economic data and political uncertainty.

The main reason for the sharp decline in oil prices was that the United States released the initial GDP report on the evening of July 30. The data showed that the real GDP of the United States in the second quarter fell by 32.9%, the worst record since the publication of quarterly GDP data in 1947. At the same time, the actual quarterly rate of personal consumption expenditure in the second quarter of the United States recorded – 34.6%, the largest decline in history. As soon as the data was released, oil prices fell sharply, with WTI falling to $38.72/barrel. Uncertainty in the economic outlook has hit oil prices hard.

In addition, trump tweeted that the election was postponed and the US stock market fell sharply. The risky assets represented by crude oil in the commodity market were also sold off, and the downward pressure on prices increased. Investors are generally worried about the chain reaction of the capital market caused by the election delay, which challenges the US Constitution and gives us political uncertainty.

Under the current epidemic situation, while crude oil demand is slowing down, there is also a great risk on the supply side. OPEC + will officially begin to relax the record production reduction on August 1. The crude oil production was cut by 9.7 million barrels / day from May to June. Later, this policy continued to July. But as soon as August enters, the reduction rate of OPEC + production may be discounted. OPEC plans to start from August to this year In the rest of the time, the quota for production reduction will be relaxed by 2 million barrels / day. Although OPEC + hopes for economic recovery, the actual situation is not satisfactory at present. Many negative indicators, including the weak US GDP data, have been suppressed by the epidemic cases. If OPEC + relaxed the production reduction quota, the current pattern of supply and demand balance may be broken again.

On the whole, the business club believes that at present, the oil market is intertwined with long and short positions, and the short position momentum is relatively strong in the short term, and the epidemic situation is still very serious, which is a drag on fuel demand. There are also some uncertainties about the future of the U.S. economic recovery, which will put pressure on oil prices. Superimposed with OPEC + easing production reduction expectations, oil prices still have downward pressure in the near future.