1、 Price trend
According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG on August 7 was 2470 yuan / ton, up 0.27% compared with 2463.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 1.09% higher on a month on month basis, and 24.77% lower than the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
This week, the domestic LNG market remained stable and rose slightly. Due to the recent increase of maintenance fluid plants in some areas, the output has decreased, the on-site supply has been tightened, the shipment has been smooth, the contradiction between supply and demand has been improved, and the price has risen steadily. At present, the overall domestic operating rate is about 60%, and the operating rate in some regions is slightly low. Although the preliminary maintenance enterprises start to sell, more enterprises such as Huineng in Inner Mongolia, Yangling in Shaanxi, Zhongjing in Sichuan, Shouyang in Shanxi and so on, have entered the overhaul stage collectively with large production capacity. Boosted by this, the liquid plants have a strong desire to support the market, and the recent increase in imported gas prices has driven the market sentiment The overall trend of liquid price is rising. However, in the off-season market, the downstream demand is limited and the follow-up is insufficient, so the rising space of liquid price is limited.
According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of August 7, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 2470 yuan / ton, that of Inner Mongolia was 2430-2500 yuan / ton, that of Shaanxi was 2500 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi was 2500 yuan / ton, that of Ningxia was 2480 yuan / ton, and that of Xinjiang was 2440 yuan / ton. The overall price of liquid was stable and did not change much.
Enterprise capacity rose and fell from August 7 to August 3
Inner Mongolia Shitai 550000 m3 / D 2430 yuan / ton 2430 yuan / ton
Star energy 1 million cubic meters / day 2480 yuan / ton 2460 yuan / ton 20 yuan
Inner Mongolia Sentai: 1.2 million cubic meters / day: 2520 yuan / ton: 2520 yuan / ton
Zhongyuan green energy: 3 million cubic meters / day, 2500 yuan / ton, 2500 yuan / ton
Shengdazi Prefecture: 1 million cubic meters / day 2490 yuan / ton 2450 yuan / ton 40 yuan
Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2750 yuan / ton: 2750 yuan / ton
Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 2480 yuan / ton 2500 yuan / ton – 20
Xinjiang Qinghua: 300000 cubic meters / day: 3000 yuan / ton: 3000 yuan / ton
Qinshui Xinao — 2500 yuan / ton 2400 yuan / ton 100 yuan
At present, the price of downstream methanol is at a historical low level, and some methanol plants with backward process and high cost are shut down; most of the international methanol plants have stable production, and the import volume is expected to remain high in August; the traditional downstream demand is general, and formaldehyde enters the traditional off-season. Under the premise of no inventory reduction, it is difficult for the methanol market to reach the bottom. At present, the supply of methanol market at home and abroad is increasing, while the demand is weakening, and the fundamentals of methanol supply exceeding demand are highlighted. Methanol analysts of the business agency predict that the domestic methanol market will bottom again in August, and it is not ruled out that there is the possibility of falling below the new low.
At present, the supply pressure of liquid ammonia tends to increase. It is rumored that Shandong large plant may have a device overhaul in August, which may have a great impact on the market prices of Shandong and Hebei. On the demand side, the downstream procurement may slow down in the later stage, resulting in a certain pressure in the later stage of liquid ammonia supply. In addition, the export of phosphate fertilizer is affected more obviously, mainly by the overseas epidemic situation, and it is unlikely to recover in the short term. Therefore, affected by the two factors of supply and demand, the price of liquid ammonia is expected to be stable in the near future.
Urea and upstream liquid ammonia have risen slightly in recent years, and the cost support is strong. Affected by the printing mark, the downstream demand is strong. The rubber plate factory and compound fertilizer plant follow up appropriately, and the middlemen are cautious in receiving goods. Urea analysts from the business club believe that the current agricultural demand is low, and the downstream industry is generally enthusiastic about urea procurement. Although there is support from the printing mark, the support is weak, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.
At present, the upstream liquid chlorine market is at a high level, and the price support of methane chloride is acceptable; the overall purchase of dichloromethane in the downstream market is insufficient, which is not conducive to the market support. According to the business association, at present, the dichloromethane market is gradually recovering, the inventory pressure of enterprises is not big, and the raw materials are high, and the production cost pressure of enterprises is relatively high. However, the downstream market demand is still weak, and the price support for dichloromethane is insufficient, and it is expected to maintain stable operation in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
LNG analysts of the business agency believe that: at present, the number of maintenance enterprises is increasing, the supply of goods in the field is tightening, and the upward trend of imported gas drives up the market atmosphere, and the liquid plants actively push up. However, the demand in the off-season is limited and the supporting force is insufficient. It is expected that the driving force for the rise of domestic LNG market is limited in the short term, and it may continue to operate stably in the future.