DOP prices rose first and then fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the DOP price was 9960 yuan/ton, up 2.04% from 9761 yuan/ton on December 9. The price of raw materials rose, the cost of DOP rose, the price of DOP rose first and then fell, and the DOP market was adjusted strongly.

The price of raw material isooctanol rises in shock

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the price of isooctanol was 9666.67 yuan/ton, up 5.84% from 9133.33 yuan/ton on December 9. The price of isooctanol rose in shock, the cost of DOP rose, and the impetus for DOP to rise increased.

The price of raw material phthalic anhydride fell first and then rose

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the quotation of phthalic anhydride by o-benzene method was 8175 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the price of 8150 yuan/ton on December 9. The price of ortho phthalic anhydride fell, the operating rate of ortho phthalic anhydride increased, the supply of phthalic anhydride increased, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride fell first and then rose, and the cost of DOP increased.

Future market expectation

According to the DOP data analysts of the business agency, the price of raw material isooctanol rose first and then fell this week, the price of phthalic anhydride fell first and then rose, and the cost of DOP rose. The downward pressure on DOP weakened and the upward momentum increased. In the future, the demand for rising DOP costs is still weak, and it is expected that DOP prices will become stable in the future.

The price of plasticizer DBP rose first and then fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 19, the DBP price was 9666.67 yuan/ton, up 2.11% from 9466.67 yuan/ton on December 11. The price of raw materials rose and the demand recovered. The DBP price rose first and then fell this week.

The price of DBP raw materials rose in shock

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of December 19, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8175 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the price of 8150 yuan/ton on December 11. The price of ortho benzene fell, the cost of phthalic anhydride became weak and stable, the price of phthalic anhydride fell first and then rose, and the downward pressure on DBP weakened.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of December 19, the price of n-butanol was 8300 yuan/ton, up 9.69% from the price of 7566.67 yuan/ton on December 11. The trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market recovered, but the increase was less than expected. The industry’s strong will was strengthened. The price of n-butanol rose first and then fell, and the cost of DBP rose.

Future market expectation

According to DBP data analysts from the business community, in terms of cost, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride has stopped falling and recovered, the price of n-butanol has risen first and then dropped, and the cost of DBP raw materials has risen; In terms of demand, DBP demand recovered but the rise was less than expected. In the future, the demand for rising DBP costs did not recover as expected, and it is expected that DBP prices will become weak and stable in the future.

The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and recovered. As of the 16th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8175 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the price of 8150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The supply of phthalic anhydride was normal, downstream orders increased, and the market price stopped falling.

The market of phthalic anhydride rose slightly, and the main influencing factors are as follows:

Supply side: the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is tight

The supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, domestic phthalic anhydride plants are operating stably, Anhui Tongling Neighbouring phthalic anhydride starts to ship normally, Xinyang Group’s 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant is operating stably, and Yamato Hongxin’s phthalic anhydride is operating normally. At present, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is maintained at more than 60%, the manufacturer’s inventory is exhausted, the supply of goods is increased, and the situation of shipment is improved, and the market trend is rising slightly.

Cost end: the price of ortho benzene is lower, and the cost support is weakened

The price trend of domestic ortho benzene declined. As of the 16th, the price of ortho benzene was 7800 yuan/ton, down 4.88% this week. The overhaul and restart of some ortho benzene units in the plant. According to the increase in the supply of ortho benzene as the reaction raw material from the manufacturer, the ortho benzene market has declined due to the decline of mixed xylene market, and the cost support has weakened. The increase of phthalic anhydride market is limited due to this.

Demand side: plasticizer market rose, orders increased

The DOP market price in the downstream of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. At present, the domestic DOP price is 9960 yuan/ton, and the domestic DOP enterprises started at a low level of about 50%. For the increase of phthalic anhydride orders, the mainstream DOP price is 9900-10100 yuan/ton. The production of plastic products is normal, the demand for plasticizers is fair, and the plasticizer industry has risen slightly. The increase in downstream demand is a good support for the phthalic anhydride market, which has risen slightly.

In the future, the price of o-xylene is weak in the short term, the downstream plasticizer industry is in a downturn, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, but the inventory of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is low. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will remain volatile in the future.

This week, Shandong propane market rose first and then fell, and then gave up its gains, and finally ended down. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of Shandong propane market was 5782 yuan/ton on December 5 and 5762 yuan/ton on December 9, with a drop of 0.35% in the week, up 4.81% compared with the same period last year.

As of December 19, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region, December 19

In South China, 5750-5800 yuan/ton

North China, 5750-5900 yuan/ton

Shandong, 5650-5800 yuan/ton

Northeast China, 5400-5700 yuan/ton

This week (12.5-12.9), the domestic propane market rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the week, with the liberalization of epidemic prevention policies in various regions, the market atmosphere improved. Downstream companies actively entered the market, and propane enterprises steadily rose. In the second half of the period, the international crude oil and external market prices fell significantly, which depressed the market mentality, dragged down the upward trend of propane, and the news was negative. At the same time, the procurement of downstream chemical products such as PDH was not active, which further depressed the propane market. As of this Friday, the rise of propane had reversed, and the decline was greater than the increase. The mainstream price in Shandong was 5750-5800 yuan/ton.

Saudi Aramco introduced CP in December 2022, with propane of 650 dollars/ton, up 40 dollars/ton from last month; Butane is 650 dollars/ton, up 40 dollars/ton from last month.

On the whole, the news support is insufficient, the demand side has no substantial improvement, the profits of some downstream products are poor, and the procurement is restrained. It is expected that the propane market will be dominated by weak shocks next week.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8266.67 yuan/ton as of December 13, a decrease of 0.80% compared with last Thursday (December 8).

Recently, the melamine market is weak. From the perspective of cost, the raw material urea market has risen after the recent fall, and the cost support has risen from a weak level, supporting the market price mentality. From the supply and demand side, the operating rate of the melamine market was high, but the demand side was low, the follow-up of new orders was insufficient, the enterprise sales were under pressure, and the focus of the melamine market negotiation fell.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market rose on December 13. On December 13, the reference price of urea was 2756.00, a decrease of 1.5% compared with December 1 (2798.00).

Melamine analysts from the business community believe that at present, the price of raw material urea is relatively strong and the cost pressure is rising, but the supply and demand support is weak. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be weak and stable, and more attention should be paid to the change of raw material price.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market fell slightly this week, from 321.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 301.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 6.22%. A year-on-year decrease of 52.24%. On December 11, the sulphuric acid commodity index was 46.95, unchanged from yesterday, down 75.04% from the cycle’s highest point of 188.07 (2022-04-13), and up 48.95% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream market fluctuated and rose, while the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers rose and fell with each other this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market rose in a narrow range, with the sulfur price rising from about 1450 yuan/ton at the weekend to 1513.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 4.37%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 21.72% year on year. The upstream market rose in shock and cost support increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, with the market price rising from 12742.863 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 12757.14 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.11%. It was 0.29% higher than the same period last year. The market price of titanium dioxide in the downstream market was adjusted at a low level, and the market price was 15,933.33 yuan/ton. A year-on-year drop of 23.03%. Downstream market fluctuates with each other, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average.

The market rose slightly after shocks

In the middle and late December, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose mainly due to slight fluctuations. The upstream sulfur market has been surging recently, and the cost support has increased. Downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, while titanium dioxide and ammonium sulfate market declined slightly. Downstream customers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business community believe that the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market price will rise mainly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to statistics, the domestic phthalic anhydride price will rise as a whole in 2021. The price at the beginning of the year will be 7175 yuan/ton, and that on December 12 will be 8050 yuan/ton. In 2022, the phthalic anhydride price will rise significantly by 12.20%. The highest price in the year will appear on October 16, the highest price will be 10,637.5 yuan/ton, and the lowest price in the year will appear on January 1, the lowest price will be 7175 yuan/ton, and the maximum amplitude in the year will be 48.26%.

It can be seen from the domestic phthalic anhydride price trend chart in recent five years that the phthalic anhydride price will be at a high level in 2022, and the high market price of phthalic anhydride will generally appear in the fourth quarter. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market will decline in the second quarter, and the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise in 2022. It can be seen from the trend chart that the price trend of phthalic anhydride can be roughly divided into four stages. The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the middle of March, when the price of phthalic anhydride rises; The second stage is the period from late March to the end of July, during which the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell; The third stage is from the beginning of August to the middle of October, during which the price of phthalic anhydride rises rapidly; In the fourth stage, the market price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply from late October to December 12.

In the first stage, from the beginning of the year to the middle of March, the domestic phthalic anhydride market price rose. The price at the beginning of the year rose from 7175 yuan/ton to 9150 yuan/ton in the middle of March, up 27.53%. The domestic phthalic anhydride market rose significantly. First of all, the domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers maintained a low level of commencement. The on-site phthalic anhydride operation rate was more than 50%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride was slightly tight. The price of phthalic anhydride on the market rose, and the downstream plasticizer industry rose significantly. The actual transaction was obviously favorable, and the phthalic anhydride market rose. Secondly, the price of ortho benzene as upstream raw material has risen sharply. The domestic market price of ortho benzene has risen from 6300 yuan/ton to 9000 yuan/ton, an increase of 42.86%. In addition, the import price of ortho benzene in the port area has risen sharply, and the quotation of ortho benzene in the external market has risen. The sharp rise in the price of ortho benzene as upstream raw material has formed cost support for the phthalic anhydride market, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen significantly.

The second stage is the period from late March to the end of July, during which the phthalic anhydride market fluctuates. The price in late March was 9150 yuan/ton, down to 7950 yuan/ton at the end of July, a decline of 13.11%. Recently, the price trend of phthalic anhydride market has declined, and the purchase situation of phthalic anhydride market is general. Recently, downstream demand has decreased, the price trend of ortho benzene has dropped significantly, and the plasticizer market has declined. The superposition of negative factors has led to the continuous decline of phthalic anhydride market price. The domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started up slightly, and the on-site phthalic anhydride operating rate rose to about 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride was sufficient, and the on-site wait-and-see attitude of phthalic anhydride remained. Downstream procurement was poor. Recently, the downstream DOP market trend fell back, which affected the price trend of phthalic anhydride market.

The third stage is from the beginning of August to the middle of October, during which the price of phthalic anhydride rises rapidly. The market price of phthalic anhydride increased by 33.81% from 7950 yuan/ton in early August to 10637.5 yuan/ton in the middle of October. At this stage, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise. At this stage, the domestic supply of phthalic anhydride was tight, some units were unstable, and the supply of goods was limited to a certain extent, The order scheduling situation occurred, and the serious contradiction between supply and demand led to the continuous rise of domestic phthalic anhydride market price. In addition, the supply of phthalic anhydride raw materials is tight recently, phthalic anhydride manufacturers have difficulty in purchasing, they are not enthusiastic enough to start work, the factory has stopped production for more maintenance, and the supply of ortho benzene is tight, resulting in a shortage of raw materials for phthalic anhydride manufacturers, which restricts their production. In addition, the price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply, supported by favorable factors, and the price of ortho benzene has risen. The downstream DOP market price rose significantly, and the downstream demand was favorable. At this stage, the DOP price rose 14.51%. The customers actively purchased, and the multiple advantages overlapped, so the market price of phthalic anhydride rose significantly.

In the fourth stage, the market price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply from late October to December 12. The price of phthalic anhydride dropped from 10637.5 yuan/ton to 8050 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a decline of 24.32%. The market price of phthalic anhydride dropped sharply, and the shipment of phthalic anhydride on the site was not good. Recently, the supply of phthalic anhydride increased, some domestic maintenance devices restarted, and Anhui Tongling phthalic anhydride began to ship normally. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride device of Xinyang Group operated stably. Affected by the restart of the device, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate rose to about 60%, and the domestic phthalic anhydride capacity was severely overcapacity, The supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient, and the market price drops. At this stage, the downstream plasticizer industry was weak, and the actual transaction was not good. The situation of ortho benzene in the upstream has declined. In addition, the plasticizer industry is in a downturn and the demand is sluggish. The market price of phthalic anhydride has fallen sharply.

To sum up, the domestic phthalic anhydride market will rise in 2022. The price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride is similar to the market price of phthalic anhydride. The downstream plasticizer industry is the direct factor affecting the price of phthalic anhydride. Nefa phthalic anhydride has a great impact on ortho phthalic anhydride, and the market price of phthalic anhydride will also be affected to some extent.

Future forecast: the domestic phthalic anhydride market has a serious overcapacity. In addition, the naphthalene phthalic anhydride continues to increase its capacity, and the neighboring phthalic anhydride is somewhat suppressed. In addition, the real estate market in the past two years is not optimistic, the plasticizer industry has been affected to some extent, and the demand has not increased significantly. In addition, the naphthalene phthalic anhydride continues to impact the market. It is estimated that the highest price of phthalic anhydride in 2023 may still be in the fourth quarter, and the highest price is about 9500 yuan/ton, The lowest price may appear in the second quarter, which is about 6000 yuan/ton.

According to the price monitoring data of the business community, as of December 5, 2022, the price reference of domestic n-propanol was 8633 yuan/ton, which was 83 yuan/ton higher than that of December 5 (8550 yuan/ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the domestic n-propanol market rose slightly this week (12.05-12.09). At the beginning of this week, the overall small increase in the price of n-propanol of Shandong’s big factories led to the overall upward trend of the market, with an increase of 100-200 yuan/ton. The overall downstream demand did not change much, and the purchase of just needed continued. In the middle of the week, some suppliers adjusted their prices narrowly according to their own inventory and other factors. On December 9, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province was around 8100-8500 yuan/ton, and the barrel price was around 9300-9500 yuan/ton. Distributors in different regions have reservations about the price. The price is difficult to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation. Each region also has differences, and the actual negotiation is the main thing.

Prediction of the future market trend of n-propanol

At present, the information on the supply and demand side of the n-propanol market is relatively calm. The data change on the supply and demand side is not big near the end of the year, and the downstream may usher in a small range of stock purchase. The n-propanol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly operate upward in a volatile way, and more attention should be paid to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business associations, in November, the domestic vitamin market experienced different overall declines, and the prices of some products further bottomed out, including the prices of vitamin A and vitamin C further declined, while the prices of vitamin E were relatively firm.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of vitamin C continued to fall in November. The average price of food grade vitamin C at the beginning of the month was 28.67 yuan/kg, and the average price at the end of the month was 27.33 yuan/kg, with a monthly drop of 4.67% and a year-on-year drop of 43.06%. The factory continued to stop reporting, the traders’ prices followed the market, and the downstream purchase was insufficient. By the end of the month, the mainstream price of feed grade vitamin C was 22-23 yuan/kg.

In November, the price of vitamin A continued to fall. The average price at the beginning of the month was 108.5 yuan/kg, and the price at the end of the month was 106.5 yuan/kg, with a monthly drop of 1.84% and a year-on-year drop of 63.9%. The current mainstream market quotation is 100-104 yuan/kg, while the European market quotation drops to 29-33 euros/kg. On November 2, the price of Xinhecheng VA was raised to 125 yuan/kg. On November 21, DSM said that the Swiss VA factory would stop production for two months from January 2, 2023, and the market attention increased. However, due to the weak demand, the market transaction focus continues to drop, and the weak vitamin A market is hard to change.

In November, the price of vitamin E fell slightly. The average price of feed grade vitamin E at the beginning of the month was 83.33 yuan/kg, and the average price at the end of the month was 83 yuan/kg, with a monthly drop of 0.4%. The European market quoted 8.9-9.2 euros/kg. On November 2, the price of Xinhecheng VE was raised to 92 yuan/kg. On November 21, DSM said that due to the cost, VE products were reduced. The news guidance has limited impact on the market, but the price of vitamin E is relatively firm.

Future market forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that: at present, the prices of some vitamin products have hit the bottom, and there is limited room for further downward adjustments. The future market may continue to be weak, and pay close attention to market trends and changes in enterprise production.

In November 2022, the domestic market of 1 # lead ingot will fluctuate upward. The average price of the domestic market will be 15085 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 15475 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.59%.

On November 28, the lead commodity index was 93.97, down 0.03 points from yesterday, down 29.88% from the cycle’s highest point of 134.01 (2016-11-29), and up 25.91% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. From the monthly K column chart, it can be seen that the lead price has fluctuated mainly in recent half a year, with the overall rise and fall within a reasonable range and a limited range. From the weekly K-bar chart, we can see that the lead price has fallen more or less recently, and it has declined overall, but the decline is small, and the overall trend is still dominated by narrow fluctuations in the off-season. After entering September, the lead ingot market began to recover. The peak season ended in late November, and the lead price declined.

Lead futures market in October 2022

Variety. Closing price on October 28./Closing price on November 28./Inventory on October 28./Inventory on November 28

Shanghai Lead/15050 yuan/ton/15580 yuan/ton/53693 tons/41180 tons

London lead./1992 dollars/ton./2122 dollars/ton./28250 tons./24350 tons

In the first half of November, the trend of the peak season continued, and the lead price rose significantly. Since the middle of November, with the cold weather, the peak season for battery enterprises has come to an end, and the lead price has been affected slightly, but it still remains at a high level. Fundamentally speaking, the import of ore end in terms of supply is still tight, the overall operating rate of domestic production enterprises has slightly increased, and the overall supply of lead has slightly increased compared with the early stage. However, as the price of lead ingots continues to rise recently, the downstream receiving of goods has slowed down to a certain extent, and the overall inventory of lead ingots has risen. The production of downstream battery enterprises has been good since entering the peak season, but as the weather turns cold, the peak season is coming to an end, and the market expects the demand for lead to decline in the future, but the recent export performance is fair, the export arbitrage window is open, the market expectation is fair, and the price remains at a high consolidation trend. On the whole, the lead ingot market is still positive. It is expected that the future market will remain stable and strong, and the short-term trend will mainly follow the macro factors.