In mid May, the domestic propane market price rebounded, and the Shandong market price fluctuated higher. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6540.75 yuan / ton on May 10 and 6668.25 yuan / ton on May 17, with an increase of 1.95% and 52.13% compared with the same period last year.

As of May 17, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region, May 17th

South China, 6450-6550 yuan / ton

North China, 6550-6700 yuan / ton

Shandong Province, 6500-6700 yuan / ton

Northeast China, 6450-6650 yuan / ton

In the middle of May, the overall price of domestic propane market rose, and the price of propane Market in Shandong showed a continuous upward trend. The rising market is mainly favorable for international crude oil. Since the 11th, international crude oil prices have risen four times in a row, which has significantly boosted the propane Market. The downstream fear of rising has been more active in entering the market. The overall supply of Shandong market is low, and the increase is relatively conspicuous. Prices in the southern market have also moved up. However, the overall weak terminal demand has brought some restraint to the rising market.

Saudi Aramco announced in May 2022 that both propylene and butane fell. Propane was 850 USD / T, down 90 USD / T from the previous month; Butane is 860 US dollars / ton, down 100 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

At present, the international crude oil has ended its four consecutive rises, and the price has fallen. The news is negative. The market price of propane in Shandong has fallen. The overall terminal demand is weak and difficult to improve in the short term. The low supply in some parts of the market has brought some support. It is expected that the propane market price may continue to be weak and be reduced by a narrow margin.

Crude oil futures strengthened for four consecutive trading days. According to the statistics of business agency, WTI rose from below $100 to nearly $114 in the past four trading days, up more than 14%. The market has gradually got rid of demand concerns, and the focus has gradually returned to the expectation of supply tightening.

Last Monday, the oil price once fell by more than 6%, continued to fall on Tuesday, and WTI crude oil fell below $100. On the one hand, at the macro level, the US dollar continued to strengthen, the valuation of bulk commodities denominated in US dollars was reshaped, and the oil price was under pressure; In addition, the continuous sharp decline in the stock market has affected the market mentality. On the other hand, the negative demand side dominated the market, and the epidemic prevention restrictions in Asia exacerbated the market’s concern about the demand prospect; In addition, the oil giant Saudi Arabia lowered the official price of crude oil in Asia and Europe in June, putting short-term pressure on oil prices.

After Wednesday, oil prices rebounded sharply for four consecutive trading days, fully recovering their previous losses. Oil prices rose again to $110 last Friday. According to the monitoring of business news agency, on May 16, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported as US $114.20/barrel, an increase of US $3.71 or 3.4%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $114.24/barrel, up US $2.69 or 2.4%. US gasoline prices soared to an all-time high, while North American demand remained strong; Superimposed on the improvement of the epidemic situation in Asia, demand expectations and concerns eased. More importantly, the market remained cautious about the EU’s oil embargo against Russia, the expectation of supply tightening continued to ferment, and the oil price continued to rise.

Supply and demand analysis: the marginal of global energy supply and demand has weakened, and low inventory support remains

CITIC futures analysis mainly has the following views on the current crude oil market: the geographical situation is in trouble, and there is no actual impact on Russia’s energy export

EU sanctions are temporarily limited to coal and have only been implemented since August, but there is no consensus on oil and gas, and many countries have compromised to pay rubles to buy natural gas, and the impact of geopolitical sentiment has slowed down; As of April, Russian oil exports rose instead of falling, up 3.25% from before the conflict in February.

Increased differentiation between energy sources:

Crude oil and refined oil are facing regional differentiation and variety differentiation: the United States and Europe are divided, the U.S. economy is expanding without stagnation, the superimposed energy export is strong, and the performance of U.S. oil products is the strongest; Europe has increased energy imports, the economy has fallen into stagflation, and European oil products have weakened marginally; China’s economy is sluggish but not inflated. Under the background of marginal improvement of the epidemic situation, domestic oil products are nearly weak and far stronger; With the differentiation of gasoline and diesel, the weakening of economy and the rise of temperature, the margin of diesel fell, but gasoline is still strong under the improvement of epidemic situation and the expectation of peak travel season.

Outlook: according to the analysis of CITIC futures, the global fossil energy inventory is still at a low level, and there is limited room for prices to fall sharply under low supply elasticity:

1) At present, the global fossil energy inventory is at a low level, mainly due to the low capital expenditure of fossil energy under the long-term energy transformation, the impact of the mid-term epidemic on the recovery of the supply chain, and the short-term geographical conflict.

2) The reduction of global energy dependence on Russia is difficult to achieve overnight, and Russia’s supply shortage is difficult to make up, which will exacerbate the shortage of energy supply.

3) As the impact of geopolitical conflict changes from short-term to medium and long-term, the importance of energy security increases, and the energy transformation may accelerate. It is expected that the global fossil energy supply elasticity will remain low, the space for the sharp decline of energy prices is limited, and the volatility is intensified.

Business news agency believes that the tightening of medium and long-term supply is expected to continue to support high oil prices

First, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) have been negative about increasing production. The latest OPEC + ministerial meeting was held on May 6 to maintain the linear production increase plan in June without additional production increase commitments. On the one hand, out of financial dependence on high oil prices; On the other hand, its members also have their own difficulties in increasing production. According to the latest OPEC + monthly report, the implementation rate of OPEC + internal production control continued to differentiate. The average implementation rate of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait remained at about 100% in April 2022, basically maintaining full production. However, other oil producing countries have been unable to meet the production capacity due to domestic turmoil, investment costs and other factors. In the medium term, it is expected that the additional capacity released by OPEC + through production increase will still be very limited, which will continue to help maintain oil prices at a high level.

In addition, the future uncertainty of Russian crude oil supply is still the biggest risk point in the market. The market focus is generally focused on the EU oil embargo against Russia. So far, the EU’s oil sanctions against Russia have not been finally implemented, mainly because a small number of countries such as Hungary do not support the embargo. Some EU countries also tend to postpone the ban on Russian oil. However, there are still voices in the market: the EU plans to approve a new package of sanctions against Russia and has no intention of delaying the implementation of the oil embargo. It is expected that before the implementation of the policy, the risk appetite of the market will be affected by the expectation of supply tightening.

Demand remains uncertain during the Fed’s interest rate hike

The US inflation level has remained high continuously, which poses challenges to the rhythm and intensity of the Fed’s interest rate hike. On May 11 local time, the U.S. Department of labor released a report showing that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) in April increased by 8.3% year-on-year, higher than the previously expected 8.1%. At a recent meeting, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that allowing high inflation means a more severe economic recession, and reiterated that it is reasonable to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at the next two meetings; If the situation gets worse, be prepared to take more measures. From Powell’s hawkish speech, in the short term, the capital market still performs poorly due to the expected interest rate increase, especially in the fields of stock market, crude oil and so on. In the long run, interest rate hikes may depress demand. Judging from the last round of interest rate increase process of the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates four times in 2018, and the oil price fell from about $85 / barrel to $55 / barrel. Especially at present, the epidemic still plays a role, and future demand may become the biggest constraint on oil prices. Of course, under the background of the Russian Ukrainian war, Russia’s oil supply is affected by intensive Western sanctions. The current situation is more complex. The impact of oil prices from the supply side will play a role in the long term to further offset the negative impact of the demand side.

Generally speaking, the crude oil analysts of business agency believe that the short-term oil price will still run at a high level under the influence of the implementation of the EU oil ban on Russia. In the medium and long term, oil prices will seek to rebalance supply and demand under the background of the Fed’s interest rate hike.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou increased this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 37333.33 yuan / ton on Monday and 38000 yuan / ton on Friday. The price increased by 1.79% within the week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of yellow phosphorus rose this week. The overall market price is close to the high-end, and the manufacturer mainly sends early orders. The spot is tight, and an appropriate amount of goods are prepared in the downstream, focusing on the rigid demand. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 38000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Sichuan is about 39000 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, this week, mining enterprises in some parts of China raised the price of medium and high-end phosphate rock again by about 20-30 yuan / ton, of which the adjusted market price of 30% grade phosphate rock in Guizhou is about 780-830 yuan / ton. Some Guizhou mining enterprises are short of supply, so they will not receive orders and quotations for the time being. The adjusted market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guangxi is around 790-840 yuan / ton. As of May 12, the market price of 30% phosphorus ore in China was around 800 yuan / ton, with an increase of nearly 5% in the first ten days of May. At present, the domestic phosphate ore market as a whole continues to operate at a high level, the downstream demand is normal, and the trading atmosphere on the site is good.

In terms of coke, coking coal prices fell this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was about 3255 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 3171.67 yuan / ton. The price fell by 2.56%, and the price increased by 98.64% compared with the same period last year. The coking coal market operates weakly. In terms of origin, most coal mines maintain normal production, but the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, the purchase enthusiasm is reduced, and the new orders of coal mines are reduced; In terms of downstream coke, the second round of increase and decrease has been fully implemented, profits have become more and more tight, and the market is mainly on the sidelines.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the price of phosphoric acid increased this week. The average price of phosphoric acid was 10710 yuan / ton on Monday and 10840 yuan / ton on Friday. The price increased by 1.21% within the week. Due to the rising price of raw yellow phosphorus and the strengthening of cost support, the offer of phosphoric acid enterprises increased, but the downstream demand followed up generally, and there is little room for rise. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will rise steadily in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of the business agency believes that on the whole, the focus of yellow phosphorus is upward this week. Enterprises have sufficient orders, the price of upstream phosphate rock has increased, and the coke market has declined. The market price of downstream phosphoric acid increased. The upstream and downstream support is acceptable. At present, the spot of yellow phosphorus is tight, and the price of yellow phosphorus is expected to be strong in the short term.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to rise this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 3100.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3133.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.08% during the week.

The overall market performance of sodium pyrosulfite this week is general. The market price range of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite is 2800-3400 yuan / ton, and most prices are concentrated near 3100-3200 yuan / ton. The overall production of the enterprise is stable, the inventory is maintained at about 30%, and the enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not within their scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. Please contact manufacturers for details).

Since the beginning of May, the price of upstream soda ash has increased by 1.4%, the price of sulfur has increased by 7.43%, and the price of upstream raw materials has continued to rise. The cost will further support the market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that under the dual support of cost and demand, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will continue to operate stably, moderately and strongly in the short term.

According to the bulk commodity list data of business society, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1376.67 yuan / ton. At the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1333.33 yuan / ton, down 3.15%. The current price fell 5.44% month on month and 4.76% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

The market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell this week. It can be seen from the above figure that formaldehyde has mainly fallen in recent months, and the market continues to fluctuate and fall this week. As of May 12, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1270-1370 yuan / ton. Recently, due to domestic public health events, the downstream demand has not improved continuously, the manufacturers in Linyi have difficulty in shipping, the market transaction is light, and the market has fallen more than once.

Summary of formaldehyde market prices in various regions as of May 12:

Region, Price

East China, 1420 yuan / ton

Central China, 1270 yuan / ton

South China, 1420 yuan / ton

Northwest China, 1330 yuan / ton

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market fell slightly this week. The reference price negotiated in the methanol market in Dongying, Shandong Province was 2640-2660 yuan / ton, which was sent to cash exchange, and the transaction was poor. The negotiated transaction of methanol market in Zibo, Shandong Province was 2660-2680 yuan / ton delivered to cash exchange, and the ex factory cash exchange of local factories fell to 2800 yuan / ton. The transaction was general. The negotiated reference price of Jining methanol is around 2650-2670 yuan / ton, and the factory provides cash exchange. Linyi receives local goods to negotiate, and the negotiated reference price is around 2730-2750 yuan / ton. The trading atmosphere is temporarily. Transportation is still limited in some areas. Methanol market may continue to decline weakly.

This week, the methanol market fluctuated and fell, the cost support was weak, the operation of the downstream plate factory did not improve, the demand for formaldehyde in the field was limited, the market transaction was cold, and the formaldehyde manufacturers had difficulty in shipping. In order to ship, they took the initiative to lower the quotation, and the formaldehyde market continued to fall.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has continued to decline, and the demand of downstream wood panel plants is weak. Under the dual pressure, the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of business society predicts that the recent decline in the price of formaldehyde in Shandong is mainly below.

This week, the domestic butadiene market fell slightly. At present, the domestic market is relatively abundant in spot resources; Recently, the supply price of foreign offer and Sinopec has been reduced, which has exacerbated the cautious attitude of downstream inquiry.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, from May 5 to 9, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 9816 yuan / ton to 9595 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 2.25% in the cycle, a decrease of 12.21% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 40.29%. In terms of price, the mainstream transaction price of butadiene in central Shandong is 9950 yuan / ton, and the mainstream transaction price of butadiene in East China is 9600 yuan / ton.

In terms of enterprises, the 30000 T / a butadiene unit of Liaoyang Petrochemical plant operates stably, and the transaction price is 9310 yuan / ton. The 70000 T / a butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation unit of Inner Mongolia Jiutai energy operates stably, and the latest quotation is 9300 yuan / T. The 160000 T / a butadiene extraction unit of Fushun Petrochemical operates stably. The source of 300 tons of goods is planned to be sold through bidding on May 9, and the base price of bidding is temporarily referred to as 9100 yuan / ton.

In terms of external market: as of the closing on May 6, the external market price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB Korea closed at US $1375-1385 / ton, down US $50 / ton; CFR China closed at US $1295-1305 / ton, down US $75 / ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $1485-1495 / ton, down US $30 / ton; FD northwest Europe closed at 1395-1405 euros / ton.

region ., country., Closing price, Rise and fall

Asia, FOB Korea, 1375-1385 US dollars / ton, – $50 / ton

Asia, CFR China, $1295-1305 / ton, – $75 / ton

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 1485-1495 USD / ton, – $30 / ton

Europe, FD northwest Europe, 1395-1405 euros / ton, 0 euro / ton

Comparison chart of butadiene CIS polybutadiene rubber (downstream products) trend of business society:

Comparison chart of butadiene styrene butadiene rubber (downstream products) price trend of business society:

Comparison chart of butadiene nitrile rubber (downstream products) price trend of business society:

The fundamentals of supply and demand are difficult to have a significant positive boost. The increase of spot export sales in the north, while the prices of external offers and suppliers are reduced, dragging down downstream inquiries with caution. Butadiene analysts of business society expect that the domestic butadiene market will be slightly sorted out in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Mixed xylene rose slightly this week, according to the bulk list data of business society. On April 29, the price was 7550 yuan / ton; On Friday (May 6), the price was 7610 yuan / ton, up 0.79% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 28.33%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil rose continuously, mixed xylene in Asia rose broadly in the outer disk, and the cost side was well supported. After the festival, the downstream air was filled, the demand improved, the main refineries actively raised the price, and the mixed xylene market rose.

In terms of external market, the price of mixed xylene in Asia rose this week. On Friday (May 6), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $1130.5/ton, with a year-on-year increase of US $39 / ton, or 3.57%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 1145 US dollars / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 37.5 US dollars / ton or 3.39%.

Crude oil rose broadly this week. The European Union plans to gradually stop Russian oil imports, the market has intensified concerns about tight crude oil supply, and international oil prices have risen continuously. As of May 6, Brent rose $3.05 / barrel, or 2.79%; WTI rose $5.08/barrel, or 4.85%.

Downstream, in the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On Friday (May 6), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 8900 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 39.06% compared with the same period last year. On May 6, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was USD 1180 / T FOB Korea and USD 1198 / T CFR China.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox in East China was stable this week. On Friday (May 6), the price of ox in East China was 8200 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 38.98% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong rose slightly this week. The price was 8819.8 yuan / ton on April 229 and 8907.4 yuan / ton on May 6, up 0.99% from last week and 18.03% from the same period last year. The rise in crude oil prices, coupled with the increase in on-site demand, led to a rise in the gasoline market.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is full of uncertainty, and the fear of tightening oil supply remains unabated. However, high oil prices are bad for the economy and demand, rising inflation or restraining the rise of oil prices, and there is still a risk of violent fluctuations in short-term crude oil. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

The crude oil price is high, and the cost support is acceptable. The downstream demand lacks sustainability, the overall transaction is still weak, and the logistics transportation has not been fully recovered. Overall, short-term mixed xylene or finishing operation. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory and external market on the price of mixed xylene.

1、 Price summary on May 7:

The quotation of Shijiazhuang refining and chemical company is 7200 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical Company is 7250 yuan / ton,

Yangba offers 7550 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 7450 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical quoted 7400 yuan / ton,

Changling Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 7550 yuan / ton,

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, the European Union plans to gradually stop Russian oil imports. The market is worried about the shortage of crude oil supply, and the international oil price has risen for three days in a row.

The positive support of gasoline is lack of sustainability, the price decline is obvious, and the mentality of the industry is frustrated.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of May 7, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 4900 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on May 1, 2022. Compared with the price on April 1, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 5566 yuan / ton), the price was reduced by 666 yuan / ton, down 11.98%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business society that in May and the first week after the labor day, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market was dominated by stable consolidation and operation, the downstream demand of dimethyl carbonate after the festival was mostly rigid and procurement was mainly needed, and the trading atmosphere on the floor was general. The price adjustment of some dimethyl carbonate suppliers in a narrow range had little impact on the overall trend of the market. The quotation of dimethyl carbonate factories was mostly stable compared with that before the festival, and the overall news on the floor was relatively calm. As of May 7, the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate in China is around 4700-5000 yuan / ton. At present, there is a certain raw material reserve in the downstream of dimethyl carbonate, and small orders are mainly negotiated in the field.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, after the festival, the domestic propylene oxide market rose. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the reference price of propylene oxide was 11633.33 yuan / ton on May 6, up 2.05% compared with May 1 (11400 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

After the festival, the rise of raw material propylene oxide has enhanced the cost support of dimethyl carbonate, and the dimethyl carbonate market has fallen to a relatively low level. The dimethyl carbonate data division of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is expected to run steadily and slightly. However, due to the lack of obvious overall demand boost, the power of the market to recover significantly is still insufficient, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (May 6): 10286.67 yuan / ton

On May 6, the melamine market rose steadily, up 0.85% compared with the previous trading day and down 12.58% compared with the price on April 6. Due to the strong support of melamine manufacturers in the early stage, the operating cost of downstream manufacturers is generally strong, and the operating cost of upstream manufacturers is generally strong, with strong support in the near future.

At present, the trading atmosphere of the market is OK, and it is expected that the melamine market will rise steadily and slightly in the short term.