1、 Price trend

This week, the ex factory price of carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable. This week, the average ex factory price of main carbide manufacturers was 2677.50 yuan / ton, up 5.00% year on year. Overall, this week’s carbide market is temporarily stable, with the carbide commodity index at 70.15 on June 5.

2、 Trend analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is temporarily stable this week: oveganeng’s quotation of calcium carbide in this week is 2605 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Shaanxi coal industry’s quotation of calcium carbide in this week is 2550 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Inner Mongolia China United’s quotation of calcium carbide in this week is 2760 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Ningxia Xingping’s quotation of calcium carbide in this week is 2750 yuan/ Tons, compared with the beginning of the week, the offer is temporarily stable.

On the whole, the actual transaction price of carbide in Northwest China is about 2500-2700 yuan / ton this weekend: the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Shaanxi is about 2500-2600 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Ningxia is about 2700 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2700 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, the price of raw materials in the upstream market is temporarily stable this week. At present, the quotation of small materials is 530 yuan / ton, that of medium materials is 550 yuan / ton, and that of large materials is about 660 yuan / ton. The price of raw materials in the upstream is slightly higher than that in last week, and the cost is slightly supported, which has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory prices rose this week. PVC price rose from 6112.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6337.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 3.68%, down 6.11% year on year. PVC price rose this week, the market continued to rise, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm for calcium carbide was also high. As a whole, PVC market this week had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of June, the market of calcium carbide rose slightly. The price of raw materials in the upper reaches rose slightly, supporting the price of calcium carbide slightly, and PVC market in the lower reaches continued to rise, and customers in the lower reaches were more active in purchasing calcium carbide. The aftermarket forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the middle of June in Northwest China will rise slightly in shock.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 581 yuan / ton on June 1, 576 yuan / ton on June 5, and the price fell 0.86% this week.

On June 5, the ammonium sulfate commodity index was 48.26, unchanged from yesterday, 54.59% lower than the highest point 106.28 (2012-05-24), and 31.68% higher than the lowest point 36.65 on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate in China fell slightly this week due to weak demand and poor trading. About 490-650 yuan / ton for mainstream ammonium sulfate in Central China, 500-560 yuan / ton for mainstream ammonium sulfate in Henan, 470-630 yuan / ton for mainstream ammonium sulfate in Hebei, 520-590 yuan / ton for mainstream ammonium sulfate in Shandong, 500-650 yuan / ton for main ammonium sulfate outflow in East China, 470-650 yuan / ton for mainstream ammonium sulfate in North China, and 470-650 yuan / ton for Northeast China The factory quotation of ammonium sulfate mainstream is 520-650 yuan / ton.

This week, the market of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is still sluggish, and there is no significant change in demand. Corn fertilizer started to be used, but the demand was limited. The price of compound fertilizer raw materials is poor, and the cost support is limited. The compound fertilizer enterprises hold a wait-and-see attitude and will operate weakly and stably in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of ammonium sulphate of business association think that at present, the trading of coking grade ammonium sulphate is not good, the demand is reduced, and the market is weak. The weakness of domestic ammonium sulfate continues, the market is not optimistic, and the price is stable and down. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will fluctuate slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic xylene market price trend this week was stable. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3640 yuan / ton, up 0.55% on last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: at present, the market demand has improved, and the transaction is fair. This week, the international crude oil overall showed a small fluctuation trend. Affected by this, the domestic xylene price rose steadily and slightly this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 3680 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, with the new opening of the main economic weight and the initial signs of rising gasoline demand in the United States, Russia indicated its willingness to extend the production reduction. However, the unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil inventory announced this week, as well as investors’ concerns about the tension in Global trade relations, led to the overall trend of international crude oil shocks this week. At present, the international oil price shows signs of resistance near its high in the past two months, so as to prevent the trend of fluctuation and fall that may occur at any time. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent rose 1.28%, Brent futures slightly fell 0.14%, WTI futures rose 2.44%, and Dubai futures rose 2%.

Downstream, in PX market, this week, domestic Sinopec’s listed price is about 4100 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the outside market is about $456 / ton for FOB South Korea and $476 / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will be stable in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the spot market price of PTA in China is about 3550 yuan / ton, and the external market price is about 430 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will be stable next week. In the ox market, Sinopec’s price of o-benzene rose, with the price at 4200 yuan / ton. The external price of o-benzene is about 472 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will be stable next week.

3、 Future forecast

According to xylene analyst of business and chemical branch, in the short term, we can see the supply cost side, OPEC + production reduction, total number of us oil drilling and EIA inventory. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the economic and trade situation between China and the United States, the progress of economic restart in Europe and the United States, and the progress of industrial chain recovery. Next week, we will focus on the trend of crude oil. Overall, we expect xylene prices in the domestic market to adjust next week.

In May, the gasoline market demand increased and the gasoline price rose. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the gasoline price at the end of May was 4893 yuan / ton, up 4.30% from 4691 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. In May, domestic automobile travel returned to normality, gasoline demand returned to normality. In addition, the weather turned hot, automobile oil consumption increased, the main foreign procurement and downstream replenishment increased. In addition, under the influence of the buying atmosphere, traders’ stock operations also increased, and gasoline demand overall improved. At the same time, gasoline exports increased, easing the supply pressure of the gasoline market. In April, China’s gasoline exports were 1.9 million tons, up 62.39% year on year.

In contrast, the diesel market is only supported by rigid demand, and the price of diesel has declined slightly. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the diesel price at the end of May was 4932 yuan / ton, down 3.66% from 5119 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. In summer, the temperature rises, outdoor operation is limited, and the fishing off period is keyed in along the coast. The wheat harvest has not yet started, and the diesel demand has entered a short-term low. It is only supported by rigid demand such as engineering, infrastructure, logistics and transportation, and the downstream customers are not willing to replenish. The decrease of diesel export affected the rise of diesel price. In April, China’s diesel export volume was 2.57 million tons, down 9.19% month on month, down 1.1% year on year.

The sharp rise of international oil price did not cause the sharp rise of gasoline and diesel prices. On May 28, WTI crude oil price was US $33.71/barrel, up 70.42% compared with the beginning of the month, but it did not guide the price of gasoline and diesel to rise sharply. The main market was due to the serious depression of crude oil price in the early stage, and the recovery of low-level crude oil after OPEC + implemented production reduction in May was obvious. At the same time, the international oil price is lower than $40 / barrel, which is below the floor price limit of refined oil. The decline of gasoline and diesel prices in the early stage is much smaller than that of international crude oil.

At present, there are many negative factors such as the increase of crude oil inventory in the United States and the reduction of production in Russia. In the next half month, the international oil price may turn down again. International oil prices will continue to operate at $40 / barrel. It is expected that the domestic gasoline and diesel prices will continue to rise and face challenges. In June, the gasoline and diesel prices will be stable, moderate and downward.

According to statistics, the ex factory price of p-xylene rose slightly in May, the domestic price at the beginning of the month was 4000 yuan / ton, and the domestic PX market price at the end of the month was 4100 yuan / ton, with the price trend rising by 2.5%, down 45.33% year on year. The external price of PX rose, and the domestic PX market was highly dependent on the external market. The external price rise was a positive impact of the domestic price.

In recent years, the domestic market price trend of paraxylene rebounded slightly. The domestic PX operating rate is about 70%, the 600000 ton new petrochemical plant of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is put into operation, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical plant is stable, the first line of Fuhai Chuang plant is started, the operation of Pengzhou petrochemical plant is stable, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX plant is normal, the operation of Jinling Petrochemical plant is stable, the operation of Qingdao Lidong plant is full load, and Qilu Petrochemical plant is in full load operation The operation of petrochemical plant is stable, the petrochemical plant in Urumqi is about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant is in normal operation, the domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic market price is warmer due to the sharp rise of crude oil price. In May, the international crude oil price soared, and the external price of PX rose slightly. As of 28, the closing price of Asia was 455-457 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 475-477 US dollars / ton CFR China. In recent years, the operation of PX units in Asia has been stable. As a whole, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is about 70%, and the supply of PX goods in Asia is normal. In May, the external closing price of PX rose by 15 US dollars / ton, while the domestic closing price rose by 15 US dollars / ton The market price of p-xylene increased slightly.

With the gradual recovery of European and American economy and the recovery of crude oil demand, the closing price of international crude oil price soared in May. As of the 28th, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, and the settlement price of main contracts was 33.71 yuan / barrel. The price of Brent crude oil futures market rose, and the settlement price of main contracts was 36.03 U.S. dollars / barrel. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman communicated on Wednesday By telephone, the two sides agreed to coordinate closely on the OPEC + agreement between the Ministry of energy. The leaders of the two sides confirmed the importance of Jointly Implementing the OPEC + production reduction agreement reached in April. In addition, the impact of the increase in production of American refineries and the unexpected increase in inventory was diluted. The sharp rise in crude oil price drove the price of domestic petrochemical products higher and the price trend of domestic paraxylene market higher.

In May, the price trend of the downstream PTA market rose sharply, and the domestic PTA spot market rose unilaterally. As of May 29, the market average price was 3566.67 yuan / ton, up 8.37% from the beginning of the month, down 38.18% year on year. Crude oil continued to strengthen, its own device maintenance increased, and suppliers bought back the spot again. Under this impetus, PTA price center continued to move up. The operating rate of domestic PTA market was 87%, but the current social inventory was more than 3.5 million tons. In terms of processing fee, PTA processing fee has fluctuated between 700-800 yuan / ton since May. Such processing fee level is undoubtedly on the high side in the current stage of overcapacity. Influenced by the price rise of downstream PTA market, the domestic market price of p-xylene has increased slightly.

Chen Ling, an PX analyst of business agency, thinks that the recent sharp rise in crude oil price, the problem of “high inventory, high processing fee and high opening rate” of downstream PTA have not been fundamentally solved, and the recovery of domestic and foreign trade in downstream terminals is slow, and the order performance is not stable. At present, the purchase of raw materials remains rigid. If the follow-up orders cannot be followed up in time, the loom load can be reduced again in late June It is expected that the market price of p-xylene will maintain 4100 yuan / ton in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

The domestic toluene market rebounded steadily this week, with the average domestic price of about 3580 yuan / ton as of Friday, up 4.99% on a month on week basis, according to the data in the business club’s large list.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: at present, the downstream demand is not strong, the transaction is general, the port inventory remains relatively high, but the oil price this week received four consecutive positive, driven by the cost, the domestic xylene price this week rose steadily, and the current mainstream price in East China is about 3550 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, it is expected that the demand for crude oil will be better for global enterprises to resume work, adding that the total number of us oil drilling and EIA inventory will be greatly reduced, and the oil price will receive four consecutive positive results this week. At present, the international oil price shows signs of resistance near the high of nearly two months, so as to prevent the trend of shock and fall next week. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent rose 13.07%, Brent futures rose 13.21%, WTI futures rose 14.91% and Dubai futures rose 6.54%.

In the downstream, the TDI market fell slightly. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with tickets is 10300-10600 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Shanghai goods with tickets is 10600-10800 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a stable trend, and pay close attention to the information guidance of the later stage of the factory and the actual market trading. In PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4000 yuan / ton, and the latest price of the external market is about 468 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 486 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will rise slightly in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch thinks: in the short term, we can see the supply cost, OPEC + production reduction, total number of us oil drilling and EIA inventory. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the economic and trade situation between China and the United States, the progress of economic restart in Europe and the United States, and the progress of industrial chain recovery. Next week, we will focus on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market will be subject to shock adjustment next week.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the data of the bulk list of the business agency, the market of lithium hydroxide is running smoothly this week. By the end of 22 days, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 55666.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, down 2.34% compared with that on April 22. On Tuesday, Shanghai Yulun industrial grade lithium hydroxide offered 56000 yuan / ton, Shanghai oujin industrial grade lithium hydroxide offered 58000 yuan / ton, Zigong tongfarong industrial grade lithium hydroxide offered 53000 yuan / ton. The specific transaction price is a single negotiation.

Industry chain: according to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the market of lithium carbonate this week (5.18-5.22) is weak and stable. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China on May 22 was 41200 yuan / ton, down 0.96% compared with the beginning of the week; the average price of battery lithium carbonate in East China on May 22 was 45200 yuan / ton, down 1.31% compared with the beginning of the week. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium carbonate market is around 38000-45000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of battery lithium carbonate market is around 42000-48000 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream inquiry has increased slightly, but the new order transaction is limited, the market shipment has not improved significantly, and the demand side is still weak. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will be weak and stable in the short term.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 20th week of 2020 (5.18-5.22), there are 32 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 5 kinds of commodities with a rise of more than 5%, accounting for 5.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are crude benzene (11.37%), chloroform (9.52%) and hydrogen peroxide (7.11%). There are 24 kinds of commodities with a decline in the aspect ratio, and the top three products are polysilicon (- 4.49%), light soda (- 3.75%) and aniline (- 3.60%). This week’s average was 0.74%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium hydroxide of business association, the market of upstream lithium carbonate is weak and stable in the near future, and the support of cost to lithium hydroxide is also weak. The demand of downstream is weak and the inquiry is relatively light. It is expected that the market of industrial lithium hydroxide will be weak and stable in the near future.

1、 Price trend of lithium carbonate:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium carbonate product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market of lithium carbonate this week is weak and stable. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China on May 22 was 41200 yuan / ton, down 0.96% compared with the beginning of the week; the average price of battery lithium carbonate in East China on May 22 was 45200 yuan / ton, down 1.31% compared with the beginning of the week. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium carbonate market is around 38000-45000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of battery lithium carbonate market is around 42000-48000 yuan / ton. On May 21, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 104.97, unchanged from yesterday, down 74.09% from 405.10 (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 6.53% from 98.54, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industry chain: according to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the market price of lithium hydroxide in the lower reaches of this week (5.18-5.22) is running smoothly. By the end of 22 days, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 55666.67 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the week, down 2.34% compared with May 1, half a year as the cycle, down 17.73% year on year. In the short term, it is expected that the industrial lithium hydroxide Market will be weak and stable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 14 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on May 21, 2020, among which there is one kind of commodity with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities are crude benzene (8.51%), ethylene oxide (3.08%) and pure benzene (2.37%). There are 6 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top 3 products were aniline (- 2.16%), propylene oxide (- 1.41%) and potassium nitrate (- 1.16%). The average price of this day is 0.17%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium carbonate of business club, the current downstream inquiry has increased slightly, but the new order transaction is limited, the market shipment has not improved significantly, and the demand side is still weak. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will be weak and stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the cost side and mainstream market news.

1、 Price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the gasoline price has been running steadily this week, while the diesel price has declined slightly. The domestic gasoline price is 4540 yuan / ton, higher than last week’s gasoline price 0.07% Domestic diesel price is 4935 yuan / ton, down from last week’s diesel price 2.15% 。

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: crude oil futures bottomed out this week, with international oil price lower than $40 / barrel. At 24:00 on the 14th, the price of refined oil market remained unchanged. The overall price of refined oil market remained stable this week, and the price of diesel oil fell slightly.

Industry chain: this week, the oil price is generally in a volatile market, with great volatility. OPEC’s production reduction countries have frequently made optimistic comments on deepening the production reduction, and Saudi Arabia has also announced an additional 1 million barrels / day of production reduction in June. However, the weak demand side of international crude oil has not been resolved, and the market inventory is still high.

Market: the international oil price is still below $40 / barrel. In the near future, the wholesale price of domestic refined oil is weak, and all manufacturers are selling at a high price. At present, the international oil price is at a low level, the refineries are supported by profits, the operating rate of domestic refineries is at a high level, and the supply of refined oil is increasing. At present, most of the diesel end users have resumed normal operation, the consumption of gasoline and diesel is relatively stable, and there is limited space to improve the demand end. However, gasoline consumption slightly increased due to the May Day holiday, but the demand consumption was still less than the supply increase. After entering the closed season in South China, there are some restrictions on the demand of diesel, and the performance of diesel market is weaker than that of gasoline.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products of business association, believes that: the international crude oil inventory is high, the crude oil market price is under pressure in a short period of time, and the domestic refined oil price adjustment will continue to be below the floor price, and it is expected that the domestic refined oil market will be weak and stable.

1、 Market price trend of POM

Price curve of POM

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong this week is 4333 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

Products: at the beginning of the week, Shandong aldehyde Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of POM, and the ex factory price of POM (96) is 4200 yuan / ton, the price is the same as that of last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of polyoxymethylene, and the ex factory quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) is 4200 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4600 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. The quotation of POM manufacturers is stable.

Industry chain: upstream methanol situation, domestic methanol market this week rose in a narrow range. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of domestic methanol market at the beginning of the week is 1680 yuan / ton, and the price of domestic methanol market at the end of the week is 1727 yuan / ton, with weekly increase 2.83% , the price is higher than that of the same period last month 0.11% The price is lower than that of the same period last year 23.22% 。

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of POM in business association, due to the influence of raw material methanol, POM may be operated in a strong way.