1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline in March. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2000-2050 yuan / ton; in Shandong, about 2150-2300 yuan / ton; in Hebei, about 2300-2350 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi, about 2080 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu, about 2150-2250 yuan / ton; in Zhejiang, about 2300-2400 yuan / ton; in South China The regional delivery price is about 2300-2400 yuan / ton.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: in March, the domestic acetic acid market as a whole continued to decline. In the middle of March, the spot supply of acetic acid was tightened due to the centralized overhaul of acetic acid enterprises, and the price of acetic acid slightly recovered. The increase of each enterprise was about 50 yuan / ton. With the completion of the overhaul, the spot supply of the market was abundant, but the downstream market demand did not improve. In addition, the closure of India led to export orders Sharp decline, acetic acid production enterprise inventory gradually accumulated, sales pressure increased, and then let the profit shipping.

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the production and sales of regional manufacturers in the domestic methanol market are basically balanced, and the inventory is kept within the controllable range, but the demand side is still insufficient, at present, about 1605 yuan / ton; the domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and other industries continue to be weak, the terminal demand is low, the market is light, and the pessimism spreads; with the continuous decline of international oil price and the purchase in the downstream market The PTA spot market continued to plummet, with low prices, unbalanced market supply and demand, insufficient cost collapse, and high downstream inventory.

International: the acetic acid Market in North America is affected by the overall weakness of the methanol and chemical industry, which has fallen sharply in the month, currently around 450 US dollars / ton; the demand in Asia is insufficient due to the impact of the epidemic in India, which has fallen sharply as a whole, and the current price is around 275-330 US dollars / ton; the European acetic acid market is affected by the downward trend of the methanol market, which is weak in the month, and the current price is 570 euros / ton left Right.

3、 Future forecast

According to the acetic acid analyst of business association, with the recovery of production of overhaul enterprises, the market operation rate gradually picks up, the pressure on sales and inventory of enterprises increases sharply, the downstream market starts not high, the demand is weak, the contradiction between market supply and demand is highlighted again, and it is expected that the future market will still be weak.

In order to better prevent the epidemic and control the entry of foreign people, many countries have chosen to close all foreign transportation lines, including highways, railways and airlines. Malaysia is one of them. On March 16, 2020, Malaysia announced the closure of the city. Since March 18, 2020, it has taken two weeks of strict restrictions nationwide to strengthen the prevention and control of public health events. On March 18, 2020, Penang Port of Malaysia announced that it would no longer accept the transit of Thai goods. As a big producer of natural rubber, Malaysia’s “closure” means that natural rubber cannot be exported on time. As an important raw material of tires – rubber, how will this affect the tire market in China?

1. Malaysia’s position in the global natural rubber Market

In the past five years, the annual output of natural rubber in Malaysia has shown a downward trend as a whole, reaching a climax in 2015 and occupying 5.89% of the global natural rubber. Then, the global output share has gradually declined. In 2018, the decline is relatively serious. In 2019, the output is about 650000 tons, accounting for 4.55% of the global natural rubber output. In 2019, Malaysia ranks the 7th in the world’s major producing countries. The implementation of “closure” in Malaysia will have an impact on the world The market of natural rubber has great influence and impact.

2. Impact of Malaysia’s “closure” on China’s rubber Market

China’s imports from Malaysia fell for two consecutive years after peaking in 2017. In 2019, China’s imports from Malaysia reached 699000 tons, accounting for 13.28% of China’s total natural rubber imports.

The average monthly import volume of China from Malaysia in 2017-2019 is about 65000 tons, and the temporary “closure” of Malaysia for two weeks may directly reduce the import volume of China from Malaysia by about 35000-35000 tons. As can be seen from the figure, except for the relatively small amount of imports in February, other months are relatively balanced.

3. What is the impact of Malaysia’s “closure” on the tire market

Malaysia is a big country in the production of natural rubber. The annual output of China’s imported natural rubber from Malaysia is not small. Although the date of unsealing has not been determined, but at present, the first two months are affected by the epidemic situation. Although the enterprise delays the start-up and the production is greatly reduced, the domestic demand is also reduced. The reduction in the import of raw materials has not yet led to the production of domestic tires Influence. At present, China’s domestic natural rubber non-state storage inventory is up to about 1.53 million tons, which can meet the domestic normal production for more than three months. However, if the time for countries to unseal is too long and domestic demand grows gradually, it may have some impact.

70% of natural rubber in China is used to make new tyres every year. China’s tire consumption accounts for one third of the global tire consumption, while China’s tire production exceeds half of the global tire production. Therefore, China is the world’s largest consumer of natural rubber. China’s natural rubber consumption increased from 2.69 million tons in 2007 to 4.8 million tons in 2014.

The postponement of downstream plant construction and the limitation of logistics and transportation will affect the consumption of natural rubber, thus forming a direct negative impact on the market. In January and February, the downstream production is restricted, which will reduce the consumption of rubber raw materials. Secondly, strict traffic control, reduced personnel flow, multiple high-speed road closures, and logistics restrictions will also reduce the tire consumption, the largest downstream product of natural rubber, which will pose a negative drag on the demand market of Tianjiao. As the largest importer of natural rubber, in order to avoid the Spring Festival holiday, the original import sources are mostly concentrated in February to March. With the extension of the holiday, the arrival time of cargo may be more compact. But fortunately, the epidemic situation in China has been well controlled and the market is slowly recovering.

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, on March 27, at the weekend, the domestic adipic acid market was still weak. Compared with the market at the beginning of the week, the market did not improve, and the price change was not big. Some dealers’ quotations were slightly loose, with a range of 50-100 yuan / ton. According to the business club’s monitoring, on March 27, the quotation range was 0.55% lower than that at the beginning of the week. At present, the general quotation range of the market is 7600-7900 yuan / ton. Dealers have generally resumed shipment, but they still haven’t reached the normal level of shipment. Influenced by the continuous downward trend of crude oil price, the chemical industry has been under pressure, the price continues to decline, and adipic acid is difficult to be alone and maintain the downturn trend. At present, the transportation situation in the market is obviously improved, but it is trapped in the weak downstream demand, the delivery situation is not ideal, the inventory is difficult to digest, the manufacturers have a lot of inventory pressure, dealers generally go with the market, purchase on demand, and the inventory pressure is OK. At present, the manufacturer’s operating rate remains stable, especially due to the impact of lower external demand and large export pressure, which does not rule out the possibility of higher inventory in the later period.

In the later stage, the business community predicted that the current chemical cost end crude oil price continued to operate at a very low level, which was negative for the entire chemical industry chain. In addition, due to the weak market demand, adipic acid should maintain a downturn in the near future.

1、 Price trend

Price: the main quotation of GPPS is 8500-9900 yuan / ton, and that of hips is 9200-10900 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

PS Market: the overall performance of the PS market is relatively flat, with some small losses. In the overall weak demand environment, the market is generally closed, the downstream factories are limited in receiving goods, and the atmosphere of on-site trading is flat.

3、 Future forecast

The overall situation of PS transaction is not good, downstream factories continue to purchase on demand, and the overall transaction is not ideal. The merchant goes with the goods, and the transaction is a little discount.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, the overall price of domestic n-propanol market is stable this week, with some traders’ quotations slightly fluctuating. On March 19, according to the average comprehensive quotation of sample enterprises, at present, the reference quotation of domestic n-propanol containing packaging is around 9400-10200 yuan / ton, and the low-end price of bulk water is around 8300-8500 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the market of n-propanol fluctuated slightly, and the overall trend is still stable temporarily. The upstream cost support surface of n-propanol market is weak, the downstream demand is general, and the market is weak. In the near future, the manufacturers follow the market and make goods, and the quotation is relatively stable. At present, there are many kinds of production processes in domestic n-propanol enterprises. Nanjing Noor new materials and Nanjing Rongxin chemical industry are mainly ethylene process. Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. has normal operation of n-propanol production plant. The ex factory quotation of n-propanol purified water is 8500 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable. All dealers of n-propanol offer different prices, but at present the overall price tends to be stable with little fluctuation. In order to stimulate the market, some dealers adjust their prices slightly. At present, the quotation of domestic n-propanol dealers is around 9400-10200 yuan / ton (in barrels); the quotation of imported n-propanol is around 11000-12000 yuan / ton (in barrels). In view of the dealer’s reservation on the price, the price is not easy to monitor, leading to specific negotiations or differences, and there are also differences in each region, with single negotiation as the main part.

Industrial chain: on March 18, the market price of propylene in Shandong still fell. In March, the price of propylene in Shandong began to decline. On the first day, the price of some enterprises picked up slightly. On the second day, the price of the whole line rose slightly. On the third day and the fourth day, the price of most enterprises generally rose. On the fifth day, the price of some enterprises increased by about 50-100 yuan / ton. On the sixth day, the price of enterprises fluctuated up and down, but the range was small. On the tenth day, the price generally fell by 50-100 yuan / ton. On the eleventh day, the price slightly fell by 50 yuan / ton. On the twelfth day, the price of some enterprises rose slightly There was a slight decline of 50-100 yuan / ton, and the price fell by 200-300 yuan / ton on the 13th. On the 16th, the price was stable, and on the 17th and 18th, the price dropped continuously. At present, the market turnover is 5750-6300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 5750-5800 yuan / ton. Influenced by OPEC meeting and various international economic policies, international crude oil rose and fell sharply; prices fell again on the 16th and slightly on the 17th. Due to the low production and inventory before propylene, the decline in the early stage is not significant, and the follow-up trend in the later stage is also obvious. It is expected that the price of propylene in the later stage will be affected by crude oil, or there will be a short-term stable market.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of the business agency, at present, the market of n-propanol is relatively stable, and the subsequent price trend changes need to pay more attention to the price changes of raw materials and the overall delivery situation of the market.

1、 Price trend

The price of pure benzene fell again this week, down 17.95% from last week, after falling 9.13% last week, according to the data in the business club’s large list. This week, the price of pure benzene fell for two consecutive times. Last Friday (March 13), the price of pure benzene was 4350-4900 yuan / ton (average price 4680 yuan / ton), and this Friday, the price of pure benzene was 3500-4200 yuan / ton (average price 3840 yuan / ton), down 17.95% from last week. Wednesday and Thursday saw two significant declines, 8.55% and 9.4% respectively.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: this week, the price center of pure benzene moved down again, and the port inventory accumulated slightly. As of March 20, Sinopec has adjusted the listing price of pure benzene four times this month, with a total reduction of 1650 yuan / ton. On March 3, the price of pure benzene was slightly and tentatively lowered; on October 10, 18 and 19, the listing price of pure benzene was significantly reduced, with a total decrease of 1450 yuan / ton, or 28.63%. At the beginning of the month, the average listing price of pure benzene was 5380.2 yuan / ton, and on the 20th, the average listing price was 3840 yuan / ton, down 28.63%. Sinopec lowered the listing price of pure benzene on Tuesday, which exceeded market expectations, leading to weak market negotiations. In addition, the import of pure benzene fell sharply, and the market was in a bad mood.

3. Outside: this week, South Korea’s import of pure benzene fell 96.67 US dollars / ton, down 18.59%; East China’s import of pure benzene fell 112 US dollars / ton, down 20.66%. Deep fall in the external market, greatly negative domestic pure benzene, internal and external arbitrage open.

3. Crude oil: Saudi Arabia and Russia insist on reducing prices and increasing production. This week, oil prices continue to decline without any sign of suspension, driving commodities down. Oil prices rebounded strongly Thursday on news that the US might intervene in the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Brent fell 6.465% and WTI fell 6.2% compared with March 13. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 61.99% and WTI by 57.36%.

4. Downstream industry: styrene inventory pressure is high this week, coupled with cost pressure, and prices continue to weaken. The price of styrene in Shandong was 6250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 5633.33 yuan / ton on Friday, down 9.87% from last week.

Affected by inventory pressure and cost, aniline prices were lowered at the beginning of the week, and later enterprises showed a wait-and-see trend. On Friday, the price in Shandong was 5900 yuan / ton, down 4.84% from last Friday; in Nanjing, it was 6150 yuan / ton, down 4.65% from last Friday.

3、 Future forecast

1. Crude oil: next week’s crude oil is still short of a sharp pick-up. However, we need to pay attention to the possible US intervention in the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia and the key supporting position of US $20 / barrel.

2. Market: the downstream products are dragged down by the weak terminal demand, the release of inventory is slow, and the pure benzene market continues to be negative. In the near future, the internal and external arbitrage has been opened, and the subsequent Southeast Asian low-cost goods sources or arbitrage into China; in addition, the pure benzene plant has gradually increased its load, and the subsequent contradiction between supply and demand is more prominent.

Under the short-term contradiction between supply and demand, it is difficult for pure benzene to improve substantially. It is expected that pure benzene will reach a new low.

1、 Price trend

Market analysis of potash products

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average factory price of domestic light potash at the beginning of the week was 6325.00 yuan / ton, while the average factory price of domestic light potash at the end of the week was 6300.00 yuan / ton, a drop of 0.4%. The current price was 8.36% lower than last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the market of potassium carbonate fell slightly this week. The domestic potassium chloride Market of upstream raw materials was in a state of relative panic. The imported potassium fell slightly, and the market price continued to decline, which had no supporting effect on the price of potassium carbonate. The market of potassium carbonate fell weakly this week. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of potassium carbonate market was tepid, the activity was low, and the demand end was weak , the actual market volume is insufficient, the downstream procurement maintains rigid demand, and the domestic potassium carbonate market falls. According to the statistics of the business agency, the main quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6100-6500 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of potash of business association, in the near future, industry insiders, especially downstream factories, are not optimistic about the late market of potassium chloride, unable to support the cost of potash. It is expected that the price of potash will be weak in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analyst of the business association, for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the selling price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province was temporarily stable this week, with an offer of 323.33 yuan / ton, down 13.39% year on year. On the whole, the sulfuric acid market is stable this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index of 50.32 on March 13.

2、 Market analysis

（1） Products:

This week, the price of the mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong is temporarily stable, with small inventory and general downstream demand. The weekend quotation of Heze Jiangyuan is 350 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Zouping Tianlu is 170 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Jinan Yuanfei is 450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable.

（2） Industrial chain:

In recent years, the domestic sulfur market has been rising steadily, which has brought certain benefits to sulfuric acid. The downstream monoammonium market has been consolidated at a high level, the market of diammonium has been at a low level, and the downstream demand is less. Sulfuric acid enterprises have more early orders, short-term operation is insufficient, and the supply is slightly tight. This week, the domestic sulfuric acid plants operated smoothly, the market supply was relatively tight, the downstream gas buying was general, and the market turnover was limited.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of March, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong Province was dominated by high consolidation. The price of sulfur in the upstream is rising steadily, the demand in the downstream is high, and the product trend is up under the contradiction of supply and demand. According to analysts of business and social sulfuric acid, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the sulfuric acid market is dominated by high consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on March 13, the domestic phosphorus ore market operated stably. Based on several sample areas, the reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore at the initial and high end was around 330-430 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Products: after the Spring Festival, affected by the public health events, the resumption of phosphate rock enterprises is slow. In March, at present, enterprises in Guizhou are resuming production one after another, the number of resuming enterprises is increasing, and the on-site supply is becoming more and more stable. In terms of price, although the mining enterprises have been shut down for a long time, the initial inventory of the enterprises is large, and the market digests the inventory after the festival. Affected by the increase of the market price of the terminal phosphate fertilizer, the market price of the phosphate ore rose slightly at the beginning of this month, and the market price of the whole week is stable. At present, in Guizhou area, 30% of the price of the phosphate ammonium car board is 330-380 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction reference is 320-330 yuan / ton. The phosphate rock of Guizhou Xinxin group is re produced. The price of 30% ammonium phosphate ore car plate is 340 yuan / ton, and the starting load of the enterprise is around 60%. The price of 28% grade raw ore of Wengfu Phosphate Ore in Guizhou is 260 yuan / ton, and the price of car plate is 320 yuan / ton. The annual ore mining volume of the enterprise is estimated to be about 9 million tons, 70% for self use, and the transaction is flexible. Sichuan area: it mainly supplies yellow phosphorus and other enterprises in the lower reaches of the province. The demand in the lower reaches is relatively weak, and the supply of ammonium phosphate ore is general. At present, the delivery price (including tax) of Mabian county with 28% grade in Sichuan is 300-320 yuan / ton. The price of Zhongyi phosphorus ore in Mabian, Sichuan Province refers to the delivery price of 26% grade phosphorus ore in Mabian County of 260 yuan / ton, 27% grade County of 290 yuan / ton, 28% grade County of 310 yuan / ton, 29% grade quotation of 340 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is mainly discussed. Yunnan area: the mining enterprises started to work at a low level, most of them digested the early inventory, and the current price of 28% grade ammonium phosphate ore in the area is 275 yuan / ton, the transportation in the field is not smooth, and the downstream procurement is restricted. The price of 28% grade ammonium phosphate ore car in Yunnan phosphate group is 275 yuan / ton; the price of 27% grade yellow phosphorus car car is 330 yuan / ton, which can be traded. Most groups of enterprises mainly produce phosphate fertilizer for their own use.

Industry chain: the yellow phosphorus market maintains weak operation, the downstream purchase price is depressed, the new orders of enterprises are not cautious, the new orders with high prices are rare, and the factory acceptance transaction of net phosphorus in Yunnan area is 17200-17300 yuan / ton. The mainstream price of phosphoric acid market is stable, with minor adjustment in some parts and poor terminal demand.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, it is expected that the overall stable operation of the phosphorus ore market in the near future will be the main thing, and the fine-tuning of some areas will not be excluded.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the ex factory price of oil glycol in North China was stable this week. On February 28, the average ex factory price of oil to glycol in North China was 4500 yuan / ton, the same as last week.

At the beginning of this week, the price of large-scale single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 4435 yuan / ton, while the price on Friday was 4315 yuan / ton, down 120 yuan / ton, down 2.71%.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of February 27, the total operating rate of domestic glycol was 68.31%, basically the same as last week.

In terms of shipment, the shipment in the mainstream warehouse area of East China continued to be at a very low level last week. From last Friday to this Wednesday, the total shipment of glycol was 34100 tons, far lower than the same period last year.

As of February 27, the glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 685500 tons, an increase of 107000 tons, or 18.50%, compared with last Thursday, and 53900 tons, or 8.53%, compared with this Monday. The East China port is expected to reach 229000 tons next week.

In terms of the unit, Tongliao gold coal’s 300000 ton / a coal to glycol unit is initially scheduled to start maintenance on March 5 and is expected to last for 15-20 days. The ethylene glycol unit of Yanshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is still in shutdown state, and the restart plan is postponed to the middle of March.

In the downstream, the polyester operation rate is 62.69%, which is higher than that of last week, and the weaving end operation rate is rising gradually.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Affected by the global spread of public health events, crude oil prices fell sharply from last Friday, resulting in the cost of glycol losing support.

In addition, due to the insufficient recovery of polyester production capacity in the downstream, glycol inventory consumption is slow. However, the number of ships arriving at the port continues to increase, and the accumulation of cargo becomes a real problem.

At present, the price of domestic glycol is lower than the cost, and most manufacturers have not responded to it. However, due to the low cost of foreign production, market confidence has been severely hit from the price trend of spot and futures. It is expected that in the short term, the price of glycol will hardly have the hope of recovery.