Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong increased slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong rose from 12300.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 12633.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 333.33 yuan / ton, or 2.71%, up 46.90% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, Shandong isooctanol market rose slightly this week. On November 21, the isooctanol commodity index was 92.89, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.44% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 164.27% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016.

The upstream support is weakened and the downstream demand is strengthened

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong increased this week: Jianlan chemical’s quotation of isooctanol this weekend was about 12600 yuan / ton, which increased by 300 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of the week, dominated by contracts; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 12600 yuan / ton, which is 300 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng offered 12700 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, an increase of 400 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week. The quotation fell from 7897.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7600.83 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 3.75%, up 9.36% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, which had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP rose slightly this week. DOP quotation increased from 11962.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 12137.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.46%, a year-on-year increase of 27.54%. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement increased.

Increased demand and bullish outlook

In late November, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol may rise slightly. Upstream propylene fell slightly and cost support weakened, but downstream DOP market rose slightly, downstream market rose and demand increased. According to the isooctanol analysts of business society, the domestic isooctanol market may rise slightly in late November.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the TDI market price trend decreased this week. On November 19, the average market price in East China was 14700 yuan / ton, down 1.18% during the week and 1.67% month on month compared with 14875 yuan / ton on November 13.

The TDI market was weak this week, and the quotation fell slightly during the week. Domestic factories and devices operate normally, suppliers have no inventory pressure, downstream demand continues to be weak, there are few on-site inquiries, the market trading atmosphere is light, cargo holders wait-and-see the market, mainly negotiate shipment, and the offer is continuously reduced during the week. As of the 19th, the reference for domestic goods with tickets in the mainstream market in East China was about 13800-14100 yuan / ton, and that for Shanghai goods with tickets was 14200-14500 yuan / ton, mainly through real order negotiation. The dealer’s quotation was adjusted according to the market news, and the price remained stable during the week.

As of November 19, the operation of domestic TDI plant is as follows:

Factory name Device status

Gansu Yinguang Smooth operation

Wanhua chemical (Yantai) Smooth operation

Cangzhou Dahua Smooth operation

Yantai Juli During the shutdown of the unit, the restart time is uncertain

Xinjiang Juli Unstable device

Shanghai keschuang Smooth operation, and the planned unit maintenance is pushed to December

BASF Shanghai Smooth operation

The upstream toluene market continued to decline, with a decrease of 5.62% during the week. As of November 19, the domestic average price of toluene was 6220.20 yuan / ton. The international oil price fell broadly, the cost support weakened, which dragged down the toluene market mentality, the demand continued to be weak, the market negotiations were light, and the toluene center of gravity moved down due to the drag of xylene.

According to the analysis of TDI data division of business society, at present, the domestic TDI market is weak, there is no pressure on the supplier’s factory supply, and the downstream demand continues to be weak. From the perspective of supply and demand performance, the market is not significantly good. It is expected that the TDI market will continue to be weak in the later stage, and specific attention will be paid to the downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price continued to decline this week. At the beginning of the week, the market price was 7897 yuan / ton, and the weekend average price was 7600 yuan / ton, down 3.75%.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the price chart of business society, propylene (Shandong) prices continued to decline this week. As of Friday, propylene prices in Shandong market were 7600-7700 yuan / ton, and there was little difference in enterprise offers. Enterprises mainly complete the orders of old customers, lack of new orders, lack of downstream gas, and just need. The price of upstream raw materials has declined as a whole. Under the constraints of cost and demand, the price of enterprises has been continuously reduced in order to ship goods smoothly.

Upstream: as of the closing on November 18, WTI rose 0.65 to $79.01/barrel in December, or 0.8%, and Brent rose 0.96 to $81.24/barrel in January, or 1.2%. Sc2201 fell 11.7 yuan / barrel to 500.1 yuan / barrel. The raw material market rose and fell this week, dominated by the decline. The crude oil price fell by 2.96%, propane fell by 0.33%, liquefied gas rose by 1.69%, and methanol fell by 9.59% due to the weakening of raw materials and poor demand.

Downstream: downstream products still fell mainly, including propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin and other products, which decreased significantly due to the reduction of raw material prices and insufficient demand support. The main downstream polypropylene maintained a decline, with a weekly decline of 2.11%. The overall weakness of downstream products is difficult to improve in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts of the chemical branch of business agency believe that the overall market of propylene market is dominated by bad conditions. In the future, with the impact of enterprises eager to buy goods and low-cost sources, propylene prices are expected to continue to fluctuate and fall.

According to the price monitoring data of business society, as of November 18, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 10400 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 600 yuan / ton, or 5.45%, compared with the price on November 14 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 11000 yuan / ton), and 467 yuan / ton, or 4.70%, compared with the price on November 1 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 9933 yuan / ton).

This week, the domestic n-propanol market as a whole was weak and operated downward. In early November, mainly supported by tight supply, the market price of n-propanol increased greatly, and the spot market quotation of n-propanol was basically around 10500-11000 yuan / ton. However, the downstream demand side has always given limited support to the n-propanol market. The domestic downstream demand for n-propanol is relatively fixed, and the increase in demand is not obvious. This week (15th), the quotation of some n-propanol dealers in the n-propanol spot market in Shandong Province has been reduced by 200-500 yuan / ton. Then, the overall market has little change, focusing on continuous consolidation and operation. On the 18th, affected by the continuous cold demand, the spot market price of n-propanol in Shandong moved downward again, with a reduction range of around 400-500 yuan / ton. As of the 18th, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong was around 9600-10500 yuan / ton, the low-end price was around 9500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of n-propanol in Nanjing was around 11000-12000 yuan / ton. Local dealers still have reservations about the price. The price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future.

In terms of upstream ethylene, the overall external ethylene market has continued to decline recently. Asian ethylene market prices fell. As of the 17th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1146-1156 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1061-1071 / ton. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated and fell. As of the 17th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1222-1222 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1162-1170 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States fell. As of the 17th, the price was 761-779 yuan / ton. Recently, the external ethylene market continued to decline as a whole, with poor demand, cold market trading atmosphere and difficult transaction.

Internationally, on November 15, the international oil price rose and fell. The main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States closed slightly, with the settlement price reported at $80.88/barrel, an increase of $0.08, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures closed slightly, reported at $82.05/barrel, a decrease of $0.121 or 0.2%. The oil price has fallen into a stalemate due to the expected increase in supply, demand growth and the strength of the US dollar.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the demand side of n-propanol is relatively calm, the demand side support is general, the supply side support is still tight, and the supply side support is still in. The analysts of business society think that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market mainly focuses on consolidation and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (November 17): 17533.33 yuan / ton

On November 17, the melamine market was temporarily stable, flat compared with the previous trading day, down 6.24% compared with October 17, and up 29.56% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. Recently, the upstream urea market is weak, the cost support is insufficient, and the market operating rate has declined slightly, but the demand side performance is still poor, the inventory of some enterprises is under pressure, and the market maintains a light pattern.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be dominated by weak operation.

In the middle of the month, the domestic propane market was dominated by negative factors and returned to the downward trend. At present, the price of propane in Shandong mostly fell to 6000 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6225.75 yuan / ton on November 7 and 6033.25 yuan / ton on November 15. The decline rate during the week was 3.09%, up 4.64% compared with October 1.

As of November 15, the mainstream prices of propane (specification: propane,% (V / V) not less than 95) in different regions in China are as follows:

region November 15th

East China 6050-6100 yuan / ton

North China 5950-6150 yuan / ton

Shandong region 5900-6080 yuan / ton

South China 6150-6250 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic propane market price mainly fell as a whole. The rebound of Shandong propane market was blocked and returned to the downward trend. At present, Shandong propane price mostly fell to 6000 yuan / ton. Although it is currently in the traditional peak sales season, the overall trend is weak. The international crude oil fluctuated and fell, with a bad market mentality. In addition, some areas of the northern market were affected by heavy snow during the week, and the transportation was blocked. In terms of supply, the overall supply of propane market is sufficient, but in terms of demand, some regions have warmed up, the downstream demand is insufficient, the manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth, the inventory pressure is increasing, and consecutive profit making shipments are the main. At present, the market lacks obvious advantages, and the north and South markets are mainly down.

Saudi Aramco announced in November 2021 that both propylene and butane increased. Propane was 870 USD / T, an increase of 70 USD / t over the previous month; Butane is 830 USD / T, up 35 USD / T compared with the previous month.

At present, on the whole, the market supply is relatively sufficient, the weather in some areas stabilizes, the follow-up of terminal demand is insufficient, the manufacturers’ shipment is blocked, the inventory pressure increases, and small profits are made one after another to stimulate the downstream market to replenish goods. In addition, the decline in international crude oil prices has brought some bad news to the market. It is expected that the situation of supply exceeding demand is difficult to change in the short term, and the trend of propane market is still weak in the short term.

According to the commodity index system of business society, the natural rubber commodity index on November 14 was 39.87, the same as yesterday, down 60.13% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 46.15% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the natural rubber market in China continued to fluctuate in the week (August 14), and the increase range was expanded near the weekend. The price of China’s domestic standard 1 spot rubber was reported as 13080 yuan / ton in the East China market on the 8th (Monday), and 13444 yuan / ton on the 14th (Sunday), with a weekly increase of 2.78%; The highest price point of this week is 13444 yuan / ton on Friday, the lowest point is 13080 yuan / ton on Monday, and the maximum amplitude is the increase of 2.78% in that week.

The factors affecting the market this week are more prominent: 1. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on November 7, China imported 512000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in October 2021, down 23.7% from 671000 tons in the same period in 2020. From January to October 2021, China imported 5.475 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 9.4% from 6.044 million tons in the same period in 2020. 2. According to the latest data of the Federation of passenger cars, the retail sales of the broad passenger car market reached 1.738 million in October 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%, but a month on month increase of 8.3%; In October 2021, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 321000, a year-on-year increase of 141%, but a month on month decrease of 3.9%. In the first 10 months, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 2139000, an increase of 73.3% over the same period last year. 3. According to the data released by China Automobile Association on November 10, China’s macroeconomic operation was generally stable in October 2021, but the domestic and international environment was still complex and severe. The automobile industry has made efforts to overcome the impact of many adverse factors such as tight power supply and high raw material prices, and the supply situation of vehicle specification chip is slightly better than that in the third quarter. Automobile production and sales continue to show a recovery trend, and the overall situation shows signs of improvement. 4. It was reported on November 11 that Thailand is experiencing the most serious labor shortage after reopening the country. According to the preliminary statistics of industries requiring a large number of labor, such as agriculture, manufacturing, service and construction, at least 800000 foreign workers need to be introduced. The analysis shows that Thailand’s rubber industry is also suffering from a serious labor shortage. 5. Recently, the demand for No. 20 mixed rubber has increased, the arrival volume is limited, and the inventory remains low, which plays an obvious role in supporting the domestic rubber price.

Future forecast: the cutting of domestic rubber will be stopped one after another, and the superposition of No. 20 mixed rubber has obvious supporting effect in the near future. The production and sales of automobile enterprises have improved to a certain extent, and the operating rate of tire factories has rebounded slightly in the near future. It is expected that the recent trend of rubber is more likely to fluctuate in the near future.

DOTP prices stabilized after falling this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the DOTP price stabilized after falling this week, and the overall DOTP market fell. As of November 12, the price of DOTP was 12212.50 yuan / ton, down 1.91% from 12450 yuan / ton last weekend (November 5); This week, the price of DOTP continued its decline last week. DOTP fell slightly and the DOTP market fell.

Isooctanol prices fell this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of isooctanol fell slightly this week. Under the national macro-control, coal related products are easy to fall but difficult to rise. This week, affected by the decline in the price of raw material coal to syngas, the cost of isooctanol decreased, the price of isooctanol decreased, the cost of plasticizer DOTP decreased, and the downward pressure of DOTP increased.

PTA prices rose first and then fell this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, PTA prices rose briefly due to the favorable cost side, the maintenance expectation of PTA device and the impact of weather on northern port logistics. The sharp decline in international crude oil prices weakens PTA cost support. At present, the wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream factories is increasing, the procurement enthusiasm is not high, the demand follow-up is insufficient, and PTA price shocks are weak. The raw material market weakened and the cost of DOTP decreased, which was bad for the DOTP market.

PVC market stopped falling and rebounded this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PVC market stopped falling and rebounded this week, and the bank’s desire rose. The PVC disk was strong, the futures PVC price fluctuated and rose, which boosted the rising atmosphere of the spot market, the enterprise quotation was tentatively increased, the market trading atmosphere gradually improved, and the focus began to move upward. PVC market rose, which was good for DOTP market.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOTP data analyst of business agency, believes that due to the two-way impact of cost and demand, the DOTP market stabilized after falling this week. On the cost side, the prices of isooctanol and PTA fluctuated slightly, and there is a great possibility of future decline. The cost support of DOTP is weakened, and the downward pressure of DOTP is large; On the demand side, PVC prices stopped falling and rebounded, the PVC market warmed up, the demand for plasticizers was expected to rise, and the upward momentum of DOTP increased. Overall, the plasticizer DOTP has increased the momentum of future rise, and the downward pressure still exists. It is expected that the price shock of DOTP will stabilize.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of November 11, the average price of domestic rubber grade excellent white carbon black was 6875.00 yuan / ton. The white carbon black market mainly operated stably, the upstream raw material price increased slightly, and the white carbon black price was stable, medium and strong. At present, the market supply is normal, the downstream just needs to be purchased, and the transaction atmosphere is general.

The mainstream price of white carbon black is about 6870 yuan / ton. The price is mainly stable, the overall market supply and demand is balanced, the just needed procurement is mainly for contract customers, the negotiation atmosphere is flat, and the price has no obvious change compared with the beginning of this week. Compared with the same period last month, the price rose by 20.61%, and the silica market was stable and strong.

The maintenance of upstream hydrochloric acid enterprises has increased. At present, the supply side is tight and the cost side support is weak. Recently, the market price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong may fluctuate slightly, and the average quotation price is about 310 yuan / ton. The overall market is stable.

On November 10, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 83.68, up 2.63 points from yesterday, down 39.31% from the highest point 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 365.41% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Business agency white carbon black analysts believe that: in the short term, white carbon black will mainly run smoothly with limited fluctuation range. (to know more about the industry chain market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the commodity price).

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of November 10, the average price of organosilicon DMC market quotation in mainstream areas was 31500 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on November 7, 2021 (the reference price was 40000 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 8500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 21.25%; Compared with the price on November 1, 2021 (the reference price is 46666 yuan / ton), the average price is reduced by 15166 yuan / ton, a decrease of 32.5%.

Last week, the domestic silicone DMC market fell sharply, and the industry was deeply worried. This week, most large factories did not offer on Monday (8th) to digest the impact of the market trend of the previous week. Individual cargo holders actively sold their goods, and the low-end quotation of silicone DMC was as low as 32000-33000 yuan / ton. On September 9, Shandong chemical plant significantly reduced the ex factory price of silicone DMC to 31000 yuan / ton, which was 9000 yuan / ton lower than the previous trading day. The quotations of other monomer plants were mostly referred to around 33000-34000 yuan / ton. The transaction was loose and negotiable. The cost support given by the continuous decline of raw metal silicon was gradually weakened. There was strong bearish sentiment in the market, mainly waiting in the downstream, and the trading atmosphere was cold, We are cautious in purchasing and fear that the market will continue to decline. Under the condition of weak supply and demand, silicone enterprises have a strong willingness to ship, and the inventory pressure is also increasing. On the 10th, Shandong big factory once again lowered the ex factory price of silicone DMC to 30000 yuan / ton, and other monomer factories have also offered profits to ship. The quotation reference is around 32000-33000 yuan / ton, and the average price is around 31500 yuan / ton, There is still room for profit from many transactions. So far, the silicone DMC market has returned to the 30000 era.

According to the business agency, the following is the current price of silicone DMC in some parts of China (for reference only, unit: yuan / ton)

region November 9th November 10th Rise and fall

Shandong region thirty-one thousand thirty thousand – one thousand

East China thirty-four thousand thirty-two thousand – two thousand

Northwest China thirty-three thousand thirty-two thousand – one thousand

In terms of upstream metal silicon, this week, the domestic 441# metal silicon price continued to weaken, with an average price of 30250 yuan / ton in the domestic market. The dry season in Sichuan, the main production area, is approaching, and Xinjiang is subject to power restriction and production reduction. Superimposed on the weak metal silicon market, the silicon price continued to weaken. The weakening demand is due to the strong bearish sentiment of downstream aluminum alloy enterprises, mainly on the sidelines, the limited power of polysilicon and other factors, and the output only remains weak and stable. According to the monitoring data of business society, the reference price of metal silicon was 30250 yuan / ton on November 9, a decrease of 24.3% compared with November 1 (39958 yuan / ton).

Future trend forecast of silicone DMC Market

At present, in the face of the sharp decline of raw materials in the downstream, orders have increased in the past two days. In addition, after the decline of metal silicon in the upstream has gradually stopped and stabilized, the cost support will also increase. At present, silicone DMC has fallen to a low level. Therefore, silicone DMC datagraphers believe that the silicone DMC market will be able to consolidate and operate stably in the short term, Manufacturers mainly offer multidimensional and stable prices, and there is little chance of another sharp decline in the market. Specifically, we need to pay more attention to the trend changes of supply and demand.