According to the monitoring data of business society, as of February 18, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 6833 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on February 13, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 8633 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 1800 yuan / ton, a decrease of 20.85%.

From the business data monitoring chart, it can be seen that in February, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a sharp downward trend. In early February, during the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic market of dimethyl carbonate was calm, and there was no significant change in the venue. After the holiday, in the first week (9th day) after the start of construction, the domestic market of dimethyl carbonate went down when it was cold, and the downstream demand opened slowly after the holiday. Under the cold demand, the factory continuously reduced the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate, with a cumulative reduction range of about 1000-1500 yuan / ton in the first week. As of February 15, the ex factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate was around 7500-8500 yuan / ton.

In late February, domestic dimethyl carbonate plants started one after another, and the plants in Shandong and Zhejiang operated smoothly. The on-site supply of dimethyl carbonate increased again. However, the downstream demand side was still calm, the demand was more rigid, and the purchase was mainly needed. With the gradual imbalance between supply and demand, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market continued to decline deeply. On the 18th, The ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate in East China fell to around 6500-7300 yuan / ton. After a few days of temporary stable consolidation and operation of the market, the domestic dimethyl carbonate Market loosened and fell again on the 22nd. As of the 22nd, the ex factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate was around 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the average price was 6566 yuan / ton. The decline in February has exceeded 33%.

For the upstream propylene oxide Market, as of February 21, the overall market price of propylene oxide in Shandong was mainly rising. On February 21, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 11800-11900 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference average ex factory price of propylene oxide in Shandong was 11966.67 yuan / ton on the 21st, an increase of 5.9% compared with February 1 (11300 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, after the dimethyl carbonate market fell to the low point, the market trading atmosphere has improved, and the volume of single transaction is still limited. Dimethyl carbonate analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the basic changes in supply and demand.

This week (2.11-2.18), the market of CIS polybutadiene rubber rose slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of February 18, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber price was 13900 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.14% compared with 13880 yuan / ton on Friday.

This week (2.11-2.18), the ex factory price of CIS polybutadiene rubber of domestic enterprises remained stable. According to the monitoring of business society, as of February 18, the ex warehouse price of Daqing Shunding of Sinopec North China sales company was 13700 yuan / ton. After the downstream Festival, the market offer of traders was slightly adjusted, and the overall market fluctuated slightly this week.

The start of polybutadiene rubber remained stable this week.

The start-up of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant has not changed much this week, and the supply side is basically stable.

Butadiene prices rose sharply this week and the cost side rose. According to the monitoring of business society, as of February 18, the price of butadiene was 7890 yuan / ton, up 10.80% from 7121 yuan / ton last Friday.

The natural rubber market fell slightly this week. According to the monitoring of business society, as of February 18, the price of natural rubber was 13480 yuan / ton, down 1.61% from 13700 yuan / ton last Friday. The effect on CIS polybutadiene rubber is empty.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the price of raw materials rebounded sharply, supported by the cost side, and it is expected that the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber will rise steadily and slightly in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price trend of TDI in East China continued to rise this week. As of February 18, the average market price in East China was 19550 yuan / ton. Compared with the price of 19575 yuan / ton at the end of last week, it decreased by 0.13% during the week and increased by 9.07% month on month.

During the week, the TDI market was reorganized and put into operation. There was little change in the start-up of domestic TDI plants. Gansu Yinguang and Yantai Juli devices had not been restarted. The spot market continued to be tight. The supply of overseas TDI market was tight, the price was high, and the on-site cargo holders had a strong mentality of supporting the market. In the later stage, the downstream response was lower than expected, the market trading continued to be light, and the quotation of dealers decreased slightly. As of the 18th, the quotation range of domestic goods in the distribution market in East China is about 19000-19300 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of Shanghai goods is 19500-19700 yuan / ton, mainly based on actual order negotiation. The dealer’s quotation followed the market news and continued to rise during the week.

As of February 18, the operation of domestic TDI plants is as follows:

The upstream toluene market fluctuated, and the price rose first and then fell during the week. The overall price rose slightly. As of February 18, the domestic average price of toluene was about 6996 yuan / ton, up 0.38% from the price at the end of last week. In the first half of the week, driven by the wide rise of crude oil, the toluene market rose, but the downstream demand was limited and the rise of toluene was blocked. In the second half of the week, the guidance of raw oil on toluene weakened and the price of toluene decreased.

According to the analysis of TDI data division of business society, at present, the downstream demand follow-up is limited, and the domestic TDI market is dominated by high-level consolidation, while the foreign demand is strongly supported, and the TDI price driven by the export market will not be significantly reduced. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the future TDI market will be in a stalemate and consolidation, and the short-term price may be slightly reduced.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of isooctanol mainstream in Shandong fell from 13900.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 13000.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 6.47%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 12.72% year-on-year. On the whole, Shandong isooctanol market fell slightly this week and showed an upward trend over the weekend. On February 17, the isooctanol commodity index was 95.59, up 1.47 points from yesterday, down 30.48% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 171.95% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weakening downstream demand

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong fell this week: Jianlan chemical’s quotation of isooctanol this weekend was about 12900 yuan / ton, which was 1100 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend, dominated by contracts; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 12900 yuan / ton, which is 800 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng offered 13200 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, down 800 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week. The quotation fell from 8270.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 8025.67 yuan / ton this weekend, down 2.96%, up 8.86% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP fell slightly this week. DOP price fell from 12950.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 12525.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 3.28%, up 18.72% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement weakened.

Weak demand and bearish outlook

In late February, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol may fluctuate slightly, mainly falling. The upstream propylene fell slightly over the weekend, the cost support weakened, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, and the downstream demand was general. According to isooctanol analysts of business society, in late February, Shandong isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly.

In the first week after the festival (2.7-11), the domestic liquid ammonia Market warmed up, the prices in Shandong and Hebei rose at the beginning of the week, and the market gradually stabilized from the middle of the week to the weekend. Prices rose in Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Henan and Northwest China. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of February 11, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 1.37%. At present, the mainstream quotation range of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4200-4400 yuan / ton.

On the supply side, the northern market mainly rose after the festival, which was mainly affected by the recovery of transportation after the festival and the dilution of the impact of the epidemic. During the Winter Olympics, the supply of Shandong, Hebei and other places tightened, affecting some output. At the same time, it also led to the recovery of prices in surrounding Anhui, Jiangsu and other regions. In addition, the shutdown of Fujian Wanhua plant also caused local supply tension and helped the ammonia price rise. The center of gravity of ammonia price in Northwest China has also moved upward. Qinghai Yuntianhua gas is limited, and the supply has been tightened; Superimposed on the recovery of traffic after snow in Ningxia, supporting the rise of ammonia price.

On the cost side, at present, the price of liquid ammonia is still supported by the cost side. The coal rebounded sharply before the festival. Although the market decreased after the festival, it is still running at a high level.

From the demand side, urea and compound fertilizer are better as a whole. According to the monitoring of business society, urea rose by 2.12% in the week after the festival. After the festival, the downstream inquiry increased, the inventory pressure of urea manufacturers was not large, and the price rose according to the trend. At present, the price is 2700 yuan / ton. The demand for agriculture is increasing, and the demand for industry is mainly rigid. With the advent of the fertilizer peak season in North China, dealers’ enthusiasm for taking goods has increased, and compound fertilizer plants have replenished goods one after another. The market price of melamine was adjusted at a low level, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation was weakened. The downstream plate factory just needs to purchase. From the perspective of supply: affected by the Winter Olympics, the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons, a slight decrease. On the whole, the cost of urea is generally supported, the downstream demand is good, the supply of urea is tight, and the future urea mainly rises slightly.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. At present, there are signs of further widening the price difference between urea and liquid ammonia, indicating that the market of liquid ammonia is still weaker than that of urea.

From the above figure, the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram shows that the current liquid ammonia industry chain continues to improve, and the price of natural gas upstream of the gas head is strong. However, the performance of coal head is weak, and the downstream shows a certain rigidity, with most rising products, especially melamine and ammonium chloride.

Future forecast: the business society believes that in the short term, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia is stable and partially tight. Many enterprises in Anhui, Shanxi, Jiangsu and other places have maintenance plans next week, and the supply is still good. The downstream urea market is still rising, which will further support the ammonia price. It is expected that liquid ammonia will still have some upward space in the near future.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (February 16): 14826.67 yuan / ton

The market price of melamine fell on February 16, down 2.20% compared with the previous trading day and up 53.80% compared with the price on January 16. At present, the price of upstream urea is falling, the cost support is weakened, the enterprises mainly execute the early orders, the performance of domestic demand is insufficient, the sales pressure of enterprises is increasing, and the price is under pressure.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be dominated by weak operation.

Affected by the cost after the festival, the epoxy resin market first rose sharply. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market offer was 27925 yuan / ton on February 7, and the market offer was 29300 yuan / ton as of February 15, with a cumulative increase of 4.92% after the festival. So far, the offer of liquid resin Market in East China is 28800-29600 yuan / ton, and the offer of solid resin Market in Huangshan is 25000-25600 yuan / ton.

After the festival, the epoxy resin market rose significantly, mainly due to the rise of dual raw materials. After the festival, the bisphenol a factory increased by 200-400 yuan / ton, the factory offered 18900-19200 yuan / ton, and the market offered 19000-19200 yuan / ton. After the festival, bisphenol A was significantly boosted by the influence of raw material phenol / acetone, and the first auction in the venue increased by 1500 yuan / ton, with the implementation of 17000 yuan / ton, which significantly boosted the market. However, as the market negotiation did not improve after the rise, the market was at a high level and operated smoothly this week.

Another important raw material, epichlorohydrin, showed a trend of rising first and then weak adjustment after the festival. According to the monitoring data of business society, the market offer was 18233 yuan / ton on February 7, pushed up to 19507 yuan / ton on February 11, and today’s market offer was 19190 yuan / ton, showing an upward trend as a whole. The cumulative increase after the festival was 5.48%, and the market entered a stable period this week.

In terms of equipment, the overall operating rate of liquid resin is about 70%; The operating rate of resin is about 4%.

From the perspective of business society, a few days before returning to the market after the festival, the double raw materials have exceeded 19000 yuan / ton, the market performance is strong, the cost of epoxy resin has increased by 1000 yuan, pushing up the sentiment, and even some enterprises offer to 30000 yuan / ton. However, at present, the downstream users have not fully recovered, the rising sentiment is cautious, the market transaction is general, and the operation will be dominated by high-level consolidation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose sharply this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 15400.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 17833.33 yuan / ton this weekend, up 2433.33 yuan / ton, or 15.80%. Overall, isobutyraldehyde market rose sharply this week.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose sharply this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 17500 yuan / ton, which increased by 2000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The quotation of isobutyraldehyde at the weekend was 18000 yuan / ton, up from 18000 yuan / ton at the end of last week; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 18000 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 3500 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde increased slightly this week. The quotation increased from 7750.80 yuan / ton last weekend to 8270.60 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 6.71%, an increase of 17.15% over the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the downstream industrial chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol increased slightly, and the quotation increased from 16647.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 18400.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 10.53%. The market of neopentyl glycol rose sharply and the downstream demand increased, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in the middle and late February may rise slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly and the cost support increased. The downstream neopentyl glycol market rose sharply, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was good. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market, the isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly.

DOP prices soared and fell after the festival

According to the data monitoring of the business society, the DOP price fell after the sharp rise after the festival, and the DOP market was strongly adjusted. As of February 11, the DOP price was 12950 yuan / ton, up 13.35% from 11425 yuan / ton on February 1 at the beginning of the month. The sharp rise in crude oil price accumulated the rising demand for replenishment after the holiday, which stimulated the sharp rise in DOP price. After replenishment, DOP price fell.

After a sharp rise in prices

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of domestic isooctanol fell after the sharp rise after the festival, with an increase of 15.10% this week. During the Spring Festival, the price of crude oil soared, the stock replenishment increased after the festival, the demand rose, and the price of isooctanol soared. Customers had great resistance to high priced octanol. After the stock replenishment, the high price of isooctanol fell, and the demand for isooctanol was weak. In the future, the isooctanol market fluctuated and stabilized, the upward momentum of DOP weakened, and the downward pressure remained.

The price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after rising

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after the rise after the festival. As of February 11, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8525 yuan / ton, up 7.54% from 7925 yuan / ton on February 1 at the beginning of the month. After the festival, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, the demand for phthalic anhydride was temporarily stable, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized in the future, the price of DOP raw materials stabilized, and the cost support weakened.

PVC market fluctuated and rose

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of PVC fluctuated and rose after the festival, and the PVC market rose. As of February 11, the price of PVC was 8920 yuan / ton, up 5.40% from 8460 yuan / ton on February 1 at the beginning of the month. During the Spring Festival, the sharp rise in crude oil prices stimulated the rise in PVC prices, the economic recovery after the festival and the increase in rigid demand for PVC; The overall demand for plasticizer is rising, and the DOP market is relatively bad.

Future expectations

According to DOP data analysts of business agency, the soaring price of crude oil during the Spring Festival accumulated the impact of replenishment of downstream customers after the festival, the prices of raw materials isooctanol and phthalic anhydride rose sharply after the festival, and the cost of DOP rose; With the completion of replenishment, the high price of raw materials fell, the upward momentum of DOP weakened, and the downward pressure increased. In the future, the economic environment recovers slowly, the demand for plasticizers increases slowly, the upward momentum of DOP is still weakening, and the price shock of DOP is expected to stabilize.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise this week. On February 10, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 369600 yuan / ton, which was 4.23% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 354600 yuan / ton on February 6). On February 10, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 394000 yuan / ton, which was 3.14% higher than that at the beginning of the week (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 382000 yuan / ton on February 6). As of February 10, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market is about 320000 ~ 400000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market is about 360000 ~ 420000 yuan / ton.

By observing the market changes, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise steadily after the Spring Festival holiday. At present, the upstream and downstream markets are in the state of resumption of production and work, so the market demand will gradually increase. Around the middle of February, domestic lithium carbonate maintenance enterprises will gradually resume normal production, and the supply will increase. Although the cathode material enterprises in the downstream have reduced production slightly, the demand for lithium carbonate is still at a high level.

The downstream lithium hydroxide Market is rising. At present, the upstream lithium carbonate goods are tight, the price is rising, the cost support is strong, some manufacturers are in the maintenance period, the demand performance is OK, and the focus of market negotiation is rising.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream is rising steadily. At present, the price of raw materials in the upstream is rising, the supply side is tight, and the focus of negotiation is high, while the downstream demand is still high, which has a certain support for the price of lithium iron phosphate and the price continues to be strong.

Analysts of lithium carbonate of business society believe that with the downstream market gradually entering the production track after the festival, the demand for lithium carbonate will continue to increase, and the price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to rise in the short term.